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Random Politics Thread

SensEye

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Who knows with Trump. But Meloni seems to be on the right track with Trump, massage his infantile ego, take advantage of him, and allow him to declare victory. The US trade deficit with Italy (a fairly useless metric to begin with, but one Trump seems obsessed with) is about $40 billion on total trade of about $100 billion. We'll see what changes. However, nothing might change regarding the trade deficit, and that does not mean Italy is ripping the US off, nor does it mean any new deal is fair or not.

One has to look at whatever protectionist trade barriers Italy has regarding US imports, including tariffs and other trade restrictions, and vice-versa, for both countries. In an ideal free trade world there would be none. We don't live in an ideal world, and governments often protect key industries for political an other reasons. It's why trade deals take many months (often more than a year) to hammer out. Not 90 deals in 90 days. It's complicated and something Trump (and his team) might be too dumb to manage successfully.

Not that facts matter to Trump. Any deal he negotiates is the best deal ever, nobody has ever seen such a great deal, etc. etc.
 

Coriolis

Si vis pacem, para bellum
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I am less worried about the trade situation than about the trampling of civil liberties. Americans can overcome alot as long as we are united. Vilification and targeting of specific groups in in part an attempt to divide us, along with suppressing dissent, however peaceful. Trade will work itself out, eventually. If the US ends up less on top than it once was, that isn't necessarily a bad thing. We should have to earn our way in the world, like anyone else. That is easier to do when people are not stressed out about their lives, livelihoods, or loved ones. When we can all work toward a common goal that we know will benefit everyone.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Who knows with Trump. But Meloni seems to be on the right track with Trump, massage his infantile ego, take advantage of him, and allow him to declare victory. The US trade deficit with Italy (a fairly useless metric to begin with, but one Trump seems obsessed with) is about $40 billion on total trade of about $100 billion. We'll see what changes. However, nothing might change regarding the trade deficit, and that does not mean Italy is ripping the US off, nor does it mean any new deal is fair or not.

One has to look at whatever protectionist trade barriers Italy has regarding US imports, including tariffs and other trade restrictions, and vice-versa, for both countries. In an ideal free trade world there would be none. We don't live in an ideal world, and governments often protect key industries for political an other reasons. It's why trade deals take many months (often more than a year) to hammer out. Not 90 deals in 90 days. It's complicated and something Trump (and his team) might be too dumb to manage successfully.

Not that facts matter to Trump. Any deal he negotiates is the best deal ever, nobody has ever seen such a great deal, etc. etc.

Trump and Meloni are fairly similar on ideological grounds. This is why she can get to him and why it is basically good idea to send her to negotiate the basics (that will eventually lead to a more complex deal). After all if US will openly go after China it evidently needs traditional allies at it's side. If anything this is simply because China has about 4 times larger population than US.
 

ygolo

My termites win
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I don't know if the latest Tarrif stuff has worked its way through, but while as I was in the hospital, many of the staff in the surgery room were expressing support for Trump. I certainly wasn't going to pick any political fights with those going to operate on me.

I try to square my personal experience with those of the larger numbers. For context, I am in a region of California that has swung for Trump(would have been solid Democrats during the first Trump term).

Trump's job approval ratings (though bad) are better than they were first term. Though still against Trump, younger voters, and people of color are more approving this term than last according to following:

gallupchart.png





A lot of questions about the data though.
1) How much would the damage of tarrifs change this?
2) For age range, I am assuming same demographics, different people between terms, but that wasn't clear. Can someone find the answer?
 

Virtual ghost

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1) How much would the damage of tarrifs change this?


The problem with tariffs in this story is that average Joe basically has no idea how any of this works or what are possible outcomes of these tariffs. The only thing that most people understand are prices at their local store. However now is still too early to fully materialize all the consequences of those tariffs. Especially since most of them are on hold at this point. Probably one of the main reasons why they are on hold is because the consequences would be devastating (in the domain of politics and economy).
 

SensEye

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The problem with tariffs in this story is that average Joe basically has no idea how any of this works or what are possible outcomes of these tariffs. The only thing that most people understand are prices at their local store. However now is still too early to fully materialize all the consequences of those tariffs. Especially since most of them are on hold at this point. Probably one of the main reasons why they are on hold is because the consequences would be devastating (in the domain of politics and economy).
The average Joe may not understand tariffs, nor the implications, but they will understand the inflation that results and maybe a recession to boot (which would hit them in the form of job loses and pay freezes). One hopes they would eventually figure out the 'why'. Unfortunately the Trump admin will lie to them (blame it on something else) and they seem to keep believing him in spite of his track record of lying about just about everything*.

It does not help that their media sources (including Fox news) will propagate Trump's lies, but you have to think eventually they will catch on. They just need to suffer economically for a while. I believe it is coming.

*Have folks seen the latest scandal that the picture Trump held up of Garcia's hand had the MS13 tattoo photoshopped on to his fingers? There's other photos of Garcia's hand that clearly lack those letters/numbers. Assuming the photoshop accusation is not fake news (i.e. one side or the other is doctoring photos) it shows Trump will stoop to any low. I just don't get how this stuff doesn't stick to him.
 

Virtual ghost

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At this point it all depends on how relations between US and it's traditional allies will look like. Since that is the factor that is going to define the future.
 

Red Herring

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Let's play odd-one-out:

"I join the world in mourning the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis, a messenger of hope, humility and humanity. Pope Francis was a transcendent voice for peace, human dignity and social justice. My deepest condolences to Catholics and all those around the world inspired by his extraordinary life and example." - UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres

"Pope Francis’ long and distinguished papacy was marked by his unwavering commitment to the principles of compassion, peace, and human dignity. He spoke out for the poor, the marginalised, and the oppressed. His solidarity with refugees, his calls for climate action, and his insistence on global peace and equality set him apart as a champion of justice in the modern world." Irish PM Michael Martin

"Pope Francis was the rare leader who made us want to be better people. In his humility and his gestures at once simple and profound – embracing the sick, ministering to the homeless, washing the feet of young prisoners – he shook us out of our complacency and reminded us that we are all bound by moral obligations to God and one another. Today, Michelle and I mourn with everyone around the world – Catholic and non-Catholic alike – who drew strength and inspiration from the Pope’s example. May we continue to heed his call to “never remain on the sidelines of this march of living hope.” - formed US president Barack Obama

"Pope Francis practised and preached in his daily life the love, tolerance and solidarity which are the basis of Christian teachings ....Just as the Prayer of St Francis of Assisi taught, the Argentine Jorge Bergoglio tirelessly sought to bring love where there was hatred. Harmony where there was discord. And understanding that we are all equal, living in the same home, our planet, which urgently needs our care.” - Brazilian president Lula da Silva

"I join millions around the world in grieving the death of His Holiness Pope Francis. His leadership in a complex and challenging time for the world and the church was courageous, yet always came from a place of deep humility. Pope Francis was a pope for the poor, the downtrodden and the forgotten. He was close to the realities of human fragility, meeting Christians around the world facing war, famine, persecution and poverty. Yet he never lost hope of a better world." - British PM Keir Starmer


"Rest in Peace Pope Francis! May God Bless him and all who loved him!" - US president Donald Trump (accompanied by photos of Melania and Vance with the pontifex)
 

The Cat

The Cat in the Tinfoil Hat..
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BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!
BOMBSHELL!!!


Look I keeps saying the word bombshell and not really explaining what I mean. I'm like an official US news outlet. BOMBSHELL!!!!

>_<
 
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