Random Politics Thread

[Virtual ghost]

Absolutely. Especially since the markets will probably respond within days.

As expected.
I don't think we will have to wait for months to see where all of this actually going.

 

[Totenkindly]

If they can't even get all the termination notices correct after 2-3x, why should we trust them regarding any "savings" they've supposedly produced? Or trust any code they are writing? Disaster after disaster.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/musk-team-issued-inaccurate-usaid-firing-notices-must-send-correct-versions-say-2025-04-03/

 

[Red Herring]

Another more innovative approach to Trump's waging economic war on the rest of the world (except Russia - somehow that detail doesn't really get mentioned much) and which is currently quickly gaining traction here in Europe is a digital services tax.

That could really hit American megacorporations in Silicon Valley. Basically all the techbros that have recently bent their knees and kissed the ring. From what I am gathering the US has a serious trade surplus in that area and, what is more, your economy has to a certain point become dependent on them (look at who the richest people in the US are and who stood in the front during the inauguration).

There seems to be a majority in favor in several European countries.

 

[SensEye]

I guess the potential silver lining in all of this tariff nonsense is it will hit all American's hard in an inflationary way that will be impossible to ignore. Gender rights issues, and even deporting legal immigrants who get caught up in the net by accident doesn't really land with the mainstream American voter. DOGE cuts are a bit more noticeable, but even those can be overlooked for a time.

However, higher prices on just about everything will be impossible to dismiss by mainstream voters. And it's important Trump gets very unpopular before the mid terms. Because if he still has control of the house and senate come 2028 the election will not be fair. Let's face it, he tried to steal the 2020 election when he was not in full control, he'll have all the pins in place (i.e. Vance) to not certify the election results in 2028 if the Republicans come up short. It remains to be seen if the Supreme Court has been completely corrupted (that will become clear once they start making a few rulings on some of his obvious illegal actions when they get escalated there). Assuming the Supremes have bent the knee, only the house and senate will be left to stop him, which won't happen if the Republicans are still in control.

 

[The Cat]

>_<​

 

[Virtual ghost]

World trade war looms as China strikes all US imports with 34 percent tariff


Here we go, the show is officially on the road.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump says tariff policies ‘WILL NEVER CHANGE’ amid plunging stocks, Chinese response


Judge for yourself.

 

[SensEye]

This is one of those times where I take solace in the fact Trump is a compulsory liar. His policies will change when and if he thinks he might lose power. Just have to wait a little while yet for the inflationary effects to hit the mainstream consumer (who is also a voter).

If he doesn't change, just throw the bum out (assuming democracy still functions in the USA when voters come to their senses).

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is one of those times where I take solace in the fact Trump is a compulsory liar. His policies will change when and if he thinks he might lose power. Just have to wait a little while yet for the inflationary effects to hit the mainstream consumer (who is also a voter).

If he doesn't change, just throw the bum out (assuming democracy still functions in the USA when voters come to their senses).

To be honest I am kinda hoping that this time he has gone truly too far and that the system will throw him out. Especially since this time he is openly starting to mess with the wealthy. What really changes things when it comes to "probability".

 

[Virtual ghost]

World’s cartoonists on this week’s events

 

[Virtual ghost]

>_<​

This is exactly why I claim that the US didn't really get over the wild west and 19th century economics. Since then all of this would perhaps make sense, but today it just don't if you know the details. In other words back in a day you could build top level factory in your own backyard and make yourself rich. While today you first have to educate the experts/workers for years and then they have to build and equip the whole thing. What usually lasts another year or two and it usually costs about a few billion dollars.

Also today if you want competitive product it has to be complex. What means you will probably need materials from all over the world. What in the end means that this whole logic of things fixing themselves no longer works, the process is simply too complex for that. In a way US lost it's manufacturing base exactly because it wasn't willing to follow the process. Since in modern manufacturing in general there are no quick solutions . What means that you need to have decent attention span in order to actually manufacture, what is the mindset that modern US culture doesn't really stimulate. Therefore all of this indicates that these measures and tariffs are probably a big miss.

 

[Virtual ghost]

How Trump cost America the world

Friend and foe alike will start piecing together a different global trade order that the U.S. might like a lot less than the one it trashed.

I mean the whole logic basically stands on the premise that people outside of US are just too stupid or too primitive to really do anything about all of this. So they will have to play along.

 

[The Cat]

How Trump cost America the world




I mean the whole logic basically stands on the premise that people outside of US are just too stupid or too primitive to really do anything about all of this. So they will have to play along.

We've talked about it before, but the brainwashing is cradle to grave here. Lots of folks here seem to think Global "power" is a single blunt instrument that gets wielded like a cudgel when in reality its far more like a communal spider web. Sure it can support a lot of weight and trap things bigger than the spiders, but its delicate. Fragile. And 90% comes from fucking soft power and diplomacy not willful ignorant sabotage. Lot of the Trumpers in my family have gone radio silent and all I can think is... I'm glad you're seeing what Ive been trying to tell you for the last several years. Shame about the timing and what it took though.

I'm curious as to where our cousins in Europe who have experience behind "the iron curtain" or close proximity to it, see the us rn with regards to how close to being a N Korea style info bubble do we seem from the outside looking in?

 

[Tomb1]

This is exactly why I claim that the US didn't really get over the wild west and 19th century economics. Since then all of this would perhaps make sense, but today it just don't if you know the details. In other words back in a day you could build top level factory in your own backyard and make yourself rich. While today you first have to educate the experts/workers for years and then they have to build and equip the whole thing. What usually lasts another year or two and it usually costs about a few billion dollars.

Also today if you want competitive product it has to be complex. What means you will probably need materials from all over the world. What in the end means that this whole logic of things fixing themselves no longer works, the process is simply too complex for that. In a way US lost it's manufacturing base exactly because it wasn't willing to follow the process. Since in modern manufacturing in general there are no quick solutions . What means that you need to have decent attention span in order to actually manufacture, what is the mindset that modern US culture doesn't really stimulate. Therefore all of this indicates that these measures and tariffs are probably a big miss.

One big thing though, the current American defense budget exceeds the defense budget of the next nine biggest defense budgets combined. That wasn't true in the 19th century economic paradigm. So all of what you say is probably true if we ignore that Trump is willing to leverage US's military strength to broker favorable deals with. That makes Trump's economic war harder to analyze from a purely economic perspective.

For all the rhetoric coming out of Europe about Putin and Russia, Europe never accepted Ukraine into Nato and never put any troops into Ukraine. That was because Putin deterred Europe. All rational countries generally run a similar realpolitik foreign policy where they prioritize national security above economic prosperity, so if Trump can successfully sell himself as a maniac whose willing to use force while retaining an ability to calculate, that gives the U.S. an advantage at most negotiating tables. You might not like the amorality of it, but that's the truth. Because the U.S. has signficant military might, the US does stand a chance to improve its situation by doubling down on a competitive, power-based economic strategy but it won't be overnight and four years may not be enough time.

The question of whether it can succeed at improving the economy versus the amorality of the methods employed are different conversations -- though liberals often conflate the two conversations into one perhaps instinctively. But there are success stories. For example, China has been running a competitive and power-based economic foreign policy for decades now and did great with it. Teddy Roosevelt was successful with that approach back in the day which he used to obtain the Panama Canal. Of course, everything can go to hell, but just as communism looked good on paper but didn't work in practice, the reverse can be equally true that what doesn't look good on paper can work in practice so keep an open mind. Economics is a social science, not a hard science. Predictive ability is limited due to not just human freewill but also the personalities involved.

 

[Virtual ghost]

We've talked about it before, but the brainwashing is cradle to grave here. Lots of folks here seem to think Global "power" is a single blunt instrument that gets wielded like a cudgel when in reality its far more like a communal spider web. Sure it can support a lot of weight and trap things bigger than the spiders, but its delicate. Fragile. And 90% comes from fucking soft power and diplomacy not willful ignorant sabotage. Lot of the Trumpers in my family have gone radio silent and all I can think is... I'm glad you're seeing what Ive been trying to tell you for the last several years. Shame about the timing and what it took though.

I'm curious as to where our cousins in Europe who have experience behind "the iron curtain" or close proximity to it, see the us rn with regards to how close to being a N Korea style info bubble do we seem from the outside looking in?

Truth to be told US since ever has various N. Korea elements in itself. After all you just said " the brainwashing is cradle to grave here". Therefore we can only talk about how much the glass is actually spilling. What isn't easy task when you judge from across the world, plus there is a whole "states rights" thing in the mix. Therefore it is hard to be super clear about all of this.


However I will try to answer the question: The system is under evidently pressure but it is still a long way from actual N. Korea levels. The very fact that you are asking me this proves that it isn't all that bad next to genuine dictatorship. The real problem is that weak education and plenty of misinformation seem to be creating the corridor that things might get much worse than they are. Therefore potential for even bigger problems is evidently there. But truth to be told I think that it is much more likely that US will fall into genuine large scale civil war than turn into open and cemented dictatorship. You guys just don't have the mindset that would make this work on the long run. Plus the guns are basically everywhere. So yeah, open N. Korea scenario is quite unlikely. Very large number of you cringe even at the very idea of collective healthcare, therefore I just don't see far greater merger of citizens (even they are forced to do so). We will see what the time will bring but I would worry more about total chaos than open dictatorship.

 

[Red Herring]

I'm curious as to where our cousins in Europe who have experience behind "the iron curtain" or close proximity to it, see the us rn with regards to how close to being a N Korea style info bubble do we seem from the outside looking in?

If I understand your question correctly you'd like to know what the info bubble looks like from the outside. I didn't live behind the iron curtain, but my country was divided by it.

I live in Western Europe* and both my values/worldview and and the media I am surounded by reflect that. Everybody is shaped by the society they live in and the information and spin they have access to. What strikes me about American media is a) how partison and b) how emotional much of it is. Americans tend to not trust their professional media and Reporters Without Borders' World Press Freedom Index (which places the US at #55) seems to prove them right. However, non-professional media often seems even worse to me. As you know, I cringe when I see that sensationalist layperson's take kinda stuff posted here on the forum. Even more subjectivity with even fewer checks.

So let me suggest a third alternative.

The first 13 places in the ranking all go to European countries, but I don't expect you to learn Norwegian** just to have access to the greatest press freedom on the planet (even though many European media do publish material in English). However, there are English speaking countries like Ireland (#8), Canada (#14), New Zealand (#19) and the UK (#25) all offering more freedom of information than the US currently does. Maybe diversify by occasionally reading a Canadian or Irish newspaper website. Get views from different political leanings as well? They are bound to also report on important American affairs (I know our media here in Germany tends to cover the US extensively, even down to regional things like the recent Supreme Court judge election in Wisconsin).

My own country, being far from perfect as it is, currently ranks #10 in the world for press freedom. So please say you want me to type out another over-long essay on how our system works!






*Let's not split hairs.

** Knowing another language and/or travel does help tremendously though when it comes to getting to know other perspectives.

 

[Virtual ghost]

One big thing though, the current American defense budget exceeds the defense budget of the next nine biggest defense budgets combined. That wasn't true in the 19th century economic paradigm. So all of what you say is probably true if we ignore that Trump is willing to leverage US's military strength to broker favorable deals with. That makes Trump's economic war harder to analyze from a purely economic perspective.

For all the rhetoric coming out of Europe about Putin and Russia, Europe never accepted Ukraine into Nato and never put any troops into Ukraine. That was because Putin deterred Europe. All rational countries generally run a similar realpolitik foreign policy where they prioritize national security above economic prosperity, so if Trump can successfully sell himself as a maniac whose willing to use force while retaining an ability to calculate, that gives the U.S. an advantage at most negotiating tables. You might not like the amorality of it, but that's the truth. Because the U.S. has signficant military might, the US does stand a chance to improve its situation by doubling down on a competitive, power-based economic strategy but it won't be overnight and four years may not be enough time.

The question of whether it can succeed at improving the economy versus the amorality of the methods employed are different conversations -- though liberals often conflate the two conversations into one perhaps instinctively. But there are success stories. For example, China has been running a competitive and power-based economic foreign policy for decades now and did great with it. Teddy Roosevelt was successful with that approach back in the day which he used to obtain the Panama Canal. Of course, everything can go to hell, but just as communism looked good on paper but didn't work in practice, the reverse can be equally true that what doesn't look good on paper can work in practice so keep an open mind. Economics is a social science, not a hard science. Predictive ability is limited due to not just human freewill but also the personalities involved.

Maybe, but the trick is that I don't see US as the limitless superpower (what is the genuine stereotype). This is especially since military spending is pretty poor indicator of actual strength. Just if someone pays troops and engineers 10 times less that doesn't mean that they are 10 times less effective. Since local economy is maybe calibrated differently and that is it. Judging military strength between countries upon currency exchange rates is simply wrong way to do this. In other words if we judge by money US should have won in Afghanistan over one weekend, but we all know that this isn't how the story ended. In other words now I see the same overconfidence from Trump in the economic sphere (or at least what I interpret as overconfidence). He declared trade war to the whole world, to some countries more and to some less. But US is only 4% of the world's population and half of the country hates the guy. Therefore I am sorry but to me all of this looks as clear overconfidence. He is playing his cards as he is almost invincible, while on the other hand he and people around him don't seem to fully realize what is "out there".



Plus if you want to come into NATO you basically have to ask US to let you in. While on the other hand Europe gave Ukraine the formal invitation to join European union. Which also offers various collective defense agreements. Especially since EU as organization offers much much deeper integration than NATO. In other words negotiations about Ukraine joining are now in progress and we will see what will happen. Since Europe is sending weapons to Ukraine every day, because it actually wants Ukraine as a member.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Jaguar Land Rover suspends shipments to US after Trump tariffs


in other words everyone that works in US part of the supply chain is probably getting fired. Plus if supply chain breaks the odds are that spare parts for such cars in the country could also become a problem.


I am totally fine if someone wants to save it's country, but this is just wrong way to do it. The tempo is just too fast and too many things will go the cliff.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

As I tried to explain: there are decent odds that the whole tariff thing could have some side-effects that weren't part of the plan.
But to get into that you need to understand the cards that others at the table are holding. After all in 21th century Republican presidents have proven to be great for higher integration of EU member states. Since they create external pressure that makes sure that things actually get done.