Random political thought thread.

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

Trump cant resonate with people who actually believe their stated positions.
Outside of Advocating for Devils that is.​

 

[Virtual ghost]

Brian Kemp will attend GOP convention as he builds up political operation

He’s continuing to mull a Senate run in 2026 or a presidential bid in the next cycle.

The glimpse of what could come after Trump era.

 

[The Cat]

 

[SensEye]

Beau's not earning his keep on this one. Here's what I predict will happen with the Trump trial (no patreon donations required):

1) Trump gets convicted of a felony. Not very likely I don't think. Regardless, Trump and his legal team start launching appeals if this happens. Such appeals will continue until it hits the Supreme Court. Trump has stacked that court with his lackeys and they will overturn the conviction. We will be long past the election by this time. Nobody will bother to re-litigate at that point.
2) Trump gets convicted of a misdemeanor. I'm not sure if this is an option for the jury, but I know the charge of 'falsifying business records' results in misdemeanor convictions much more often than felony convictions. If this is an option, it's is pretty likely. Trump will appeal anyways, but nobody will really care about a misdemeanor, so it will be quickly forgotten.
3) Trump is acquitted. Trump walks, says I told you so, and this whole fiasco blows up in the Democrats face.

There's very little path to good news for the Democrats. A felony conviction may help with PR, but since it will be under appeal, I'm not sure it will impact voters minds as much as the Dems hope it will.

 

[Virtual ghost]

There's very little path to good news for the Democrats. A felony conviction may help with PR, but since it will be under appeal, I'm not sure it will impact voters minds as much as the Dems hope it will.

You are forgetting one scenario that isn't that much unlikely. Trump's legal problems can get even more complicated and he could even end in a cell. To what Republicans choose someone kinda normal as new candidate and in the end landslide Biden. Which in the end can only work against Trump.


I am kinda surprised that pretty much no one can see this timeline. Since this evidently isn't something that is 100% impossible.

 

[SensEye]

You are forgetting one scenario that isn't that much unlikely. Trump's legal problems can get even more complicated and he could even end in a cell. To what Republicans choose someone kinda normal as new candidate and in the end landslide Biden. Which in the end can only work against Trump.


I am kinda surprised that pretty much no one can see this timeline. Since this evidently isn't something that is 100% impossible.

That seems too good to be true. I am convinced it will not be. In any event, we should know in a week or so.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump found guilty on all 34 charges in hush money trial

 

[SensEye]

Dems get their PR victory. Trump has to wear the convicted felon label for the time being. Happy to admit I was wrong on that likelihood.

However, I heard one of the legal types on CNN say that for class E felony convictions, even *if* Trump gets jail time, he will not have to start serving his sentence until after he has exhausted all his appeals (which will takes months or even years).

So it will not interfere with his ability to campaign.

Time will tell if the 'convicted felon' vs 'witch hunt victim/martyr' narrative will influence voters one way or the other, and which way the balance will tilt if it does.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Dems get their PR victory. Trump has to wear the convicted felon label for the time being. Happy to admit I was wrong on that likelihood.

However, I heard one of the legal types on CNN say that for class E felony convictions, even *if* Trump gets jail time, he will not have to start serving his sentence until after he has exhausted all his appeals (which will takes months or even years).

So it will not interfere with his ability to campaign.

Time will tell if the 'convicted felon' vs 'witch hunt victim/martyr' narrative will influence voters one way or the other, and which way the balance will tilt if it does.

Ok, but there is still a number of other factors about actual running of the country . The legal games aren't the only show in town.
However my bet is that in the end this conviction should tilt many of those voters in the center. The ones that are in "I am voting for the lesser evil" mindset. In other words what just happened should tilt them away from Trump. What in the end can easily decide the swing states.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I hate capitalism.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Oops, nevermind, I'm going to blame what just happened to me on some immigrants instead. Situation normal.

j/k

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ok, but there is still a number of other factors about actual running of the country . The legal games aren't the only show in town.
However my bet is that in the end this conviction should tilt many of those voters in the center. The ones that are in "I am voting for the lesser evil" mindset. In other words what just happened should tilt them away from Trump. What in the end can easily decide the swing states.

In other words plenty of Nikki Haley voters will probably jump the ship after this.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I wouldn't trust the far right. They're the same as they always were. Don't turn your backs on them.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early


This kinda shows the depth of the divide. The conviction has barely moved the needle (and even that is within the margin of error).

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

Stay cool cats, things are heating up in more ways than one.​