I have literally been having nightmares about living in a fascist nation where we no longer have meaningful elections and Trump rules with an iron fist.
What got him into office to end Democracy in these nightmares?
It's cost-of-living stupid.
Indeed, in my nightmares, the young and minority populations (who are most likely to not find affordable housing) join the disaffected white people from 2016 to stay at home instead of voting because they see voting for the establishment as voting for late-stage capitalism.
I live in one of the areas of California that flipped to red last election. I know a lot of people personally who flipped their vote. It is they same familiar set of stories.
1) They lost a job during the pandemic and lock-downs and haven't really recovered full employment. They blame the government for that.
2) They scrimped and saved to buy a house/condo close to Silicon Valley instead of renting only to get priced out of that market and settled for buying incredibly far away instead. Now their bosses want them to come into the office. They blame the zero interest rate environment followed by relentless rate hikes for that.
2a) They got priced out of the market so bad they can't even afford rent in Silicon Valley or buy a house ridiculously far away. The blame is the interest rates for that.
3) They switched jobs for a tech sector job due to higher pay (to maybe not have to share a house with 2 other families, maybe) only to get laid off later when Big Tech started its massive firing (still on going). They blame Big Tech for that, and believes Big Tech has captured the Government regulatory apparatus.
4) They work a job they hate in Big Tech and "quiet quit" their job. They loathe Big Tech for that, and believes Big Tech has captured the Government regulatory apparatus.
I'd imagine the stories in flipped red districts outside of New York city, LA/San Diego, Seattle, Boston, etc. are similar. Except the Big industry around which their resentment centers could be finance, law, media, etc.
I think, in the political calculus, if you get rid of BTFP for real estate, and enforce anti-NYMBYism, you may lose some blue voters in the bluest of blue regions, but I think you will gain a lot more, and more importantly you would gain them in regions that are more purple or even red.