Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Tactical retreat of Ukraine.

 

[ygolo]

@Virtual ghost Given the latest developments, where would you place the alignment of the global south (mainly South America and Africa, but also to some extent India) in terms of the eastern vs western blocks?

I'm afraid that the pressures that could turn things into world war iii are building.

I realize electronics("chips") and software("AI") are esoteric to some people, but these topics are being discussed by people who've had little understanding or even interest in these things.

This shows their current geopolitical importance. When you look at the level of dependence of the Western block countries on Taiwan(I think the real reason US tech stocks shed $1T on the DeepSeek R1 announcement), do you believe the chances that China invades Taiwan have increased?

 

[Virtual ghost]

@Virtual ghost Given the latest developments, where would you place the alignment of the global south (mainly South America and Africa, but also to some extent India) in terms of the eastern vs western blocks?

I'm afraid that the pressures that could turn things into world war iii are building.

I realize electronics("chips") and software("AI") are esoteric to some people, but these topics are being discussed by people who've had little understanding or even interest in these things.

This shows their current geopolitical importance. When you look at the level of dependence of the Western block countries on Taiwan(I think the real reason US tech stocks shed $1T on the DeepSeek R1 announcement), do you believe the chances that China invades Taiwan have increased?

This is simply too diverse group of countries that you can treat them as one group. Left in Latin America tends to prefer China/Russia, while the right prefers the West usually. Therefore as people in power change so does the puzzle of what the continent thinks on the issue. On the other hand Africa seems to have more than enough of it's own problems to care too much about any of this. Who offers them more support will get more respect and resources back. Especially since there is currently a number of very bloody wars on the continent (Kongo, Sudan, Ethiopia etc). While India seem to be sitting on both chairs and it seems that it likes it that way.


Therefore when it comes to China invading Taiwan the odds of that happening are going up for years at this point. The more messy the west becomes the larger are the odds of this happening. Tech plays it's part in all this but the topic is evidently much wider than this. Especially since for China this is deeply ideological question. In my book I think they will wait that the west becomes even more messy before they start anything. The current trends work in their favor so they can wait. It isn't that they have elections or something that they have to be fast about any of this. What means that the only real way to prevent this war is that the west gets it's "lifestyle" in order.

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK Polling average


Hard right Reform UK party has surpassed Conservatives in polling not too long ago. While now they equalized their numbers with Labor party.
What means that in upcoming days at this rate they will take over the lead. They already won the last poll.

Scroll down for polling average.



Germany — 2025 general election

There are only 3 weeks left until general elections in Germany and the only party that is evidently growing is hard right (blue).
While center right conservatives burned plenty of bridges towards the parties that are to the left of them.



It seems we will truly live in "brave new world".

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia to Trump: Back off Ukraine’s rare earths


If I have to chose between this and Trump just walking away I evidently prefer this scenario.
On the other hand the Russians are panicking. Because this deal would make it evident that they can't win this war. They can cause the end of the world but they can't actually win if the west fully mobilizes.



Putin’s North Korean troops taken off the front line, Seoul’s spy agency says

Putin ally Schröder avoids Nord Stream 2 inquiry after burnout diagnosis

Russian propaganda: How Moscow uses disinformation in Africa

India-Germany submarine deal: What does it mean for Russia?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Hungary — National parliament voting intention

Orban (orange) is loosing ground to new center right party.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[SensEye]

Hungary — National parliament voting intention

Orban (orange) is loosing ground to new center right party.

The questions here are:

1) Will Orban accept any election result where he loses?
2) Will Orban rig the election so the result shows he does not lose (similar to Maduro in Venezuela) ?

 

[Virtual ghost]

The questions here are:

1) Will Orban accept any election result where he loses?
2) Will Orban rig the election so the result shows he does not lose (similar to Maduro in Venezuela) ?

That depends on the margins of his loss/support .
In other words over the years he openly rigged the election system so that the party with most votes gets most seats. In other words he introduced pretty rigid first past the post system and with that he openly undone the multiparty system. Since that means that everyone else will need to make one pretty messy an unstable coalition against him (to have any chances at all). However recently there was a plot twist. One of his own men left the party and founded center right party. Which should have the stability and electability to defeat him. Especially since it can use his own election laws again him.

Therefore now he is more vulnerable than ever.
The elections are still some 15 months away but more and more people simply want something new for a change. Especially since economy isn't going too well from what I understand.

 

[Virtual ghost]

French PM Bayrou survives no-confidence votes thanks to far right

In other words far right is basically a part of ruling majority.



Here’s what Germany’s next government will look like

Baltics brace for cyberattacks as they depart Russian electricity grid

UK takes on leadership of Biden-era Ukraine military aid group

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Red Herring]

Here’s what Germany’s next government will look like

That title is a bit click-bait-y, given that it's conclusion is that things are still open.

I mean, yeah, sure, the CDU will likely be the strongest party and therefor Merz the new chancelor. That much has been clear for months. But who he will be working with and even what parties will be represented in parliament and who might drop out is still very much unclear.

In the aftermath of that hole migration plan desaster the democratic parties have increasingly distanced each themselves from each other. Our language has a word for that as well: "Ausschließeritis" ("exclusionitis" ... the excessive public a priori exclusion of potential coalition partners before an election). I am not referring to the AfD (Merz is playing super offended that anyone would even dare to suggest that he would ever, ever form a coalition with the AfD) but to the Green's youth organization and even many in the SPD demanding not to cooperate with the CDU after what Merz has done. If they refuse to work with him he WILL have the perfect excuse to join forces with the devil. At the same time Söder keeps insisting that the Greens should be excluded beforehand. Thankfully, Lindner has basically sunk into oblivion after needlessly destroying the government coalition but he too keeps roaring in the background, condemning the Greens and the SPD for their stance on immigration (the real problem, in my eyes, is that they don't have one).

Tis might be weird to Americans used to a either/or two party system but if you'll likely have to cooperate and cogovern with your competitor after the elections just how hard you should go on them becomes a thin line. Especially if there is always a big, but socially taboo, alternative in the room.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That title is a bit click-bait-y, given that it's conclusion is that things are still open.

I mean, yeah, sure, the CDU will likely be the strongest party and therefor Merz the new chancelor. That much has been clear for months. But who he will be working with and even what parties will be represented in parliament and who might drop out is still very much unclear.

In the aftermath of that hole migration plan desaster the democratic parties have increasingly distanced each themselves from each other. Our language has a word for that as well: "Ausschließeritis" ("exclusionitis" ... the excessive public a priori exclusion of potential coalition partners before an election). I am not referring to the AfD (Merz is playing super offended that anyone would even dare to suggest that he would ever, ever form a coalition with the AfD) but to the Green's youth organization and even many in the SPD demanding not to cooperate with the CDU after what Merz has done. If they refuse to work with him he WILL have the perfect excuse to join forces with the devil. At the same time Söder keeps insisting that the Greens should be excluded beforehand. Thankfully, Lindner has basically sunk into oblivion after needlessly destroying the government coalition but he too keeps roaring in the background, condemning the Greens and the SPD for their stance on immigration (the real problem, in my eyes, is that they don't have one).

Tis might be weird to Americans used to a either/or two party system but if you'll likely have to cooperate and cogovern with your competitor after the elections just how hard you should go on them becomes a thin line. Especially if there is always a big, but socially taboo, alternative in the room.

Austrian coalition talks falter

I really do think that CDU will make certain lessons out of this.


Austria — National parliament voting intention

Especially since Austrian center right (ligh blue) took some serious damage just over talking to far right about forming the government.



But yes, if CDU and SPD wouldn't have enough seats there will probably be more mess down the road. For a while this is actually my greatest concern in the whole story.
This really isn't the era when you want instability at the heart of Europe.

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK expels Russian diplomat in spying row

 

[Red Herring]

UK expels Russian diplomat in spying row

Oh, did you hear about the series of car sabotage here in Germany?

Over 270 cars were damaged in several federal states, with a sticker left on the vehicle saying something like "Be greener! Vote Habeck!". Initially the police suspected climate activists but they accidentally came across a small group of men who seem to be behind it, confessed and explained that they were being payed for the whole thing by Russian sources.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw...uspect-russia-behind-car-vandalism/a-71517942

Sadly stuff like this was to be expected. Not the first and not the last time, I'm afraid.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Oh, did you hear about the series of car sabotage here in Germany?

Over 270 cars were damaged in several federal states, with a sticker left on the vehicle saying something like "Be greener! Vote Habeck!". Initially the police suspected climate activists but they accidentally came across a small group of men who seem to be behind it, confessed and explained that they were being payed for the whole thing by Russian sources.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw...uspect-russia-behind-car-vandalism/a-71517942

Sadly stuff like this was to be expected. Not the first and not the last time, I'm afraid.

I didn't but all over Europe you have similar stories about physical threats, false info, cyber threats, property damage ... which are often being linked to Russian hybrid games.
As you say "Not the first and not the last time". This is simply the reality in which we are leaving and we all know who is main organizer behind most of it. The scope of the whole thing is simply too large that this is something random. Just going through a typical comment section proves that this isn't some random problem.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Von der Leyen signals ‘extraordinary’ measure to boost EU defense spending

Just hit that *RED ALERT* button already.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine receives French and Dutch fighter jets

 

[Virtual ghost]

Georgia ramps up restrictions on media, NGOs with drastic new laws

Baltic countries sever final power ties with Russia

‘New reality’ hailed as Slovak protests against pro-Russia PM widen to small towns

Uruguay bets on China, EU to guard against Trump tariffs

 

[Virtual ghost]