Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Speaking of the problems in UK.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Is this the end of NATO?

Zelenskyy: ‘The time has come’ for a European army

At this point it is safe to say that the trust has been destroyed. The current events made it clear that Europe has to go it's own way the best it can. Many wanted to avoid this because this strong, united, self sufficient and assertive Europe would kinda have the feeling of various events and eras from the past. However the circumstances are simply leaving pretty little in alternative of what can be done (and that it makes sense in the terms of self preservation).

What happened here could very easily end up in history books.

 

[Virtual ghost]

In about 75% of things EU is already one country basically.
Therefore the current situation in a way makes sure that the circle closes completely.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Macron calls emergency European summit on Trump, Polish minister says

Šefčovič to visit Washington as trade war looms


This is basically the continuation of the story.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The fight for Europe is on

This is the crossroad, one of the paths has to be chosen and there is no going back.



How von der Leyen blindsided Brussels with her deregulation drive

While when you read this the impression is that this is emergency setting of the engines to flank speed.
What suggests that the plan is to make EU to be the third global pole next to US and China. After all those 3 have about 20% of global GDP each.


In other words this fairly clearly gives a hint about which of the two paths EU wants to take. What means that US should be prepared to receive divorce papers sooner rather than later.


This could very easily turn out to be major historic moment that will evidently end in history books.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine will not participate in Russia-US talks, Zelenskyy says from UAE

EU top brass plans Kyiv visit amid US-Russia talks


It smells like a divorce mentioned in previous post.

 

[Red Herring]

Six more days until German federal elections. Here's an interesting survey:

https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/20...len-migration-ukraine-buergergeld-klimawandel

They asked about some of the most burning issues right now and give answers by gender, age, East/West and urban/rural.
As it turns out both rural vs urban and East vs West are hardly an issue. The true divisions are over generations and gender. That is interesting because it suggests that those divisions have been overhyped by politicians and the media. Overall the unsurprising take-away is that women are far more liberal than men and young people (under 30 years old) are clearly more progressive than older people. City folks and people in the West tend to be slightly more liberal than rural people and Easterners, but those divisions are far smaller than the gender and generation divide.

Here are the questions:

1. Should the state increase deportations of people from Germany? Overall 67.9% in favor (women split almost exactly in the middle, men overwhelmingly in favor, young people strongly against and old people strongly in favor, more agreement in the West than in the East)
2. Is Donald Trump a threat to democracy? Overall 67.3% agree (83% of women and 85% of young people agree)
3. Should Germany reject refugees at its borders? Overall 59.5% in favor (only 40% of women agree, as do 26.2% of young people, more agreement in the West than in the East)
4. Should Germany send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine? Overall 59.5% in favor (more men than women in favor, more urban, Western and young people in favor)
5. Should the state invest more money in the fight against climate change? Overall 52.9% agree (73.3% of women and 81.6% of young people agree)
6. Should the state reduce welfare payments (Bürgergeld)? Overall 52.8% agree (only 33.4% of women and 22.8% of young people agree)
7. Is it wrong that constitutional amendment to enforce balanced budgets a mistake? Overall 51.7% agree (62.6% of women and 75.1% of young people agree)
8. Is Germany a just and fair country? Overall 35.9% agree (ironically all population groups seem pretty much in agreement here)

What I see here is a country pretty roughly split along the middle on most issues (with a slight majority in favor of reducing migration and in favor of supporting Ukraine) with women and young people clearly leaning strongly towards the progressive/liberal side but being held back by older men. Germany is similar to Japan in that we are an aging nation with a low fertility rate, so we are a country run by old folks. The young being more open than the old is a global pattern, I guess, but in the case of migration it probably also matters than those under 30 now were under 20 a decade ago when the refugee crises happened/started. That means that they went to school with a bunch of recently arrived Syrians, Afghans, etc in their day to day life while older people stil haven't digested the visible social changes that brought with it.

In case anybody is wondering, these would have been my answers (female, rural, West, 30-65 years old):

1. Yes and No (accelerate processing and enforcement but grandfather in people who have already integrated themselves into society) 2. Yes 3. No, but a reform of the Dublin agreement is neccessary 4. Yes 5. Yes 6. No 7. Yes 8. Sort of (depending on your frame of reference)

 

[Virtual ghost]

To be honest I don't find this that surprising.
Pretty much everywhere around Europe you can find similar story for the most part. Especially since what I have seen suggests that women are becoming visibly more educated than men. On paper and practice as well. While older people from much of the continent grew up in the times when the continent was visibly less democratic. Iron curtain, aftermath of ww2, autocrats in the south like Franco or regime in Greece etc. However with generational change things are changing fundamentally.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Poland to Europe: Don’t play games with Trump, spend more on defense


As usual Poland is calming trans-atlantic tensions.
I can agree with Poland but there is one logical problem here. If Europe indeed decided to spend 4 to 5 percent of GDP on security that in a sense is also decoupling from US. Since in that case Europe will have defense spending that is equal or perhaps even somewhat larger than US. What means that US simply isn't all that needed anymore. What will then spill into various political and economic decisions (especially in the situation where inside US things go south for any reason). Not to mention that the only way this percentage of spending can be sustainable is by massively expanding Europe's own defense sector. What makes Europe much more self sufficient by definition.

But yes, it is evidently better to be safe than sorry.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The city that exposes Germany’s deep migration divide

Fundamental rights of LGBTQ+ eroding as they’re weaponized by conservative forces

Parliament’s right-wing majority puts EU ethics body in the crosshairs


As I said: the right wing EU is coming.




European Council

As i said this pie chart is telling. The slice size is percentage of the EU population, while the color is ideology of it's leader.
Red- center left
Yellow - centrist liberal
Light Blue - center right
Dark blue - national conservatives
Everything else - extremists, populists or independents



In other words in a few days with something like 98% certainty we can say that the huge chunk that is Germany will shift from red to light blue. What means that switching at the core of EU will surely have continent wide effect. After all Spain has this mumbo-jumbo coalition that is made out of various and diverse parties that has only a few seat majority. So it is possible that the balance will be lost under new of the circumstances. While ff there are snap elections the right will almost surely win. What basically means that center left is out of the picture at the top EU level. Since the only thing that will be left in this case is small Denmark where the left is moving right to keep it's the voters. There is also Malta but Malta has about 0.1 percent of the EU population, plus polling currently gives the right advantage. But without Germany and Spain the left is basically no where in this picture. While their chances for a large pick up are pretty small.

Center left is in problems and other left leaving groups don't even exist on this level. However that isn't the end of the story. The Belgium supposedly sort out it's new coalition deal. What means that it will move from centrist liberal to national conservative position. What is evidently right wing shift. While Estonia and Slovenia could move to center right in not too distant future (just as Luxembourg did recently). After long mess Bulgaria also got a new government that is led by center right. Plus Czechia by polling should soon move from national conservative completely to the right (black).


I mean this is the main political body of the EU. This is where the actual decisions are made for the most part. While in the parliament if right wingers of all shapes and sizes gather they actually have the majority (as mentioned in the article). What suggests that "brave new Europe" is evidently in the cards.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Second crisis Ukraine summit planned for Wednesday

Uganda deploys troops to DR Congo to repel militias

Canadian warship passing through Taiwan Strait irks China

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is currently the most intense part of the front line.

 

[The Cat]

A vote for Trump was a vote for a loss of face. A loss of power on the world stage.
What has been lost in an instant will take decades if ever to get back.
And many will drown in the blood between.
-_-
​

 

[Virtual ghost]

A vote for Trump was a vote for a loss of face. A loss of power on the world stage.
What has been lost in an instant will take decades if ever to get back.
And many will drown in the blood between.
-_-
​

From what I have seen Trump plans large defense budget cuts in order to control deficit better. What just on it's own creates the world where Europe will simply have to spend some 4 to 5 percent of GDP for defense. Especially since Russia and Middle east are just next door. Therefore even if we presume that the new administration is unreliable that doesn't change the game if Trump goes for the deep cuts. What is possible scenario since the country is going objectively bankrupt for years at this point. Therefore however you turn it Europe really has not choice but to get tougher on it's own. However for US that is kinda big setback and objective loss of control that will be felt for decades. Once EU fully grows up it will be impossible to turn back the clock without major mess. However when it grows up the odds are that it will act much more independently and buy less from US. Probably there will be partnerships but they will be on more equal basis. While if EU indeed takes in about a dozen new member states (as it is in long term plans) it is reasonable to expect that EU will become senior partner on the long run. (since it has more people than US even as it is). While on the other hand current mess kinda makes sure that the EU can't disintegrate. It is under too many pressures to just split.



Trump is just what Europe’s defense needs

Or if you want it from more formal source. The tile is kinda sarcastic.
After all if Trump gives up on NATO that in a sense opens the door for EU/NATO merger. Since pretty much all members of both organizations are in both of them. Not to mention that both organizations have HQ in Brussels. After all there are already ideas about Canada joining the EU and this is how this chain of events starts if it were to happen. UK left the EU but none the less it said that it ready to send peace force into Ukraine on the other side of the continent. What nicely shows that Europe will have to stick together. Since the alternatives seem to lead pretty much no where.


Crazy world but here we are.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine: Trump in 'disinformation space,' says Zelenskyy

It seems that incoming era could be more dramatic than "the worse case scenario".

 

[The Cat]

From what I have seen Trump plans large defense budget cuts in order to control deficit better. What just on it's own creates the world where Europe will simply have to spend some 4 to 5 percent of GDP for defense. Especially since Russia and Middle east are just next door. Therefore even if we presume that the new administration is unreliable that doesn't change the game if Trump goes for the deep cuts. What is possible scenario since the country is going objectively bankrupt for years at this point. Therefore however you turn it Europe really has not choice but to get tougher on it's own. However for US that is kinda big setback and objective loss of control that will be felt for decades. Once EU fully grows up it will be impossible to turn back the clock without major mess. However when it grows up the odds are that it will act much more independently and buy less from US. Probably there will be partnerships but they will be on more equal basis. While if EU indeed takes in about a dozen new member states (as it is in long term plans) it is reasonable to expect that EU will become senior partner on the long run. (since it has more people than US even as it is). While on the other hand current mess kinda makes sure that the EU can't disintegrate. It is under too many pressures to just split.



Trump is just what Europe’s defense needs

Or if you want it from more formal source. The tile is kinda sarcastic.
After all if Trump gives up on NATO that in a sense opens the door for EU/NATO merger. Since pretty much all members of both organizations are in both of them. Not to mention that both organizations have HQ in Brussels. After all there are already ideas about Canada joining the EU and this is how this chain of events starts if it were to happen. UK left the EU but none the less it said that it ready to send peace force into Ukraine on the other side of the continent. What nicely shows that Europe will have to stick together. Since the alternatives seem to lead pretty much no where.


Crazy world but here we are.

One would think republicans would be up in arms that he's destroying America to impress Russia and China Because Anyone with a head not firmly up their own ass would realize that's the end result of all this madness. Not only are we signaling our unreliability as an ally, we're showing how weak we're willing to be for our enemies. We've left crazy behind a while ago. We're being dragged to hell by our own government and the news media is having a blast with all the business as usual bullshit.

I have a sinking feeling that the nation wont wake up until its practically too late.

 

[Virtual ghost]

One would think republicans would be up in arms that he's destroying America to impress Russia and China Because Anyone with a head not firmly up their own ass would realize that's the end result of all this madness. Not only are we signaling our unreliability as an ally, we're showing how weak we're willing to be for our enemies. We've left crazy behind a while ago. We're being dragged to hell by our own government and the news media is having a blast with all the business as usual bullshit.

I have a sinking feeling that the nation wont wake up until its practically too late.

To tell you the truth in a way it is already too late. The only real question is how bad it is going to get.

 

[The Cat]

To tell you the truth in a way it is already too late. The only real question is how bad it is going to get.

Yeah. Tell me about it. It's a nightmare for national security.

​

 

[Red Herring]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/opinion/germany-elections-afd.html

I can't embed it because it is the New York Times, not YouTube. But it is a video by a German satirist.