Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost · Jan 14, 2025

Virtual ghost · Jan 14, 2025

Virtual ghost · Jan 14, 2025

Virtual ghost said:
UK polling average

For the first time ever Reform UK has surpassed the Conservatives.
In other words if things start to snowball after this "milestone" UK if on the highway to the "brave new world".

Nigel Farage’s Reform just a point behind Labour, poll shows

It looks as it will be "the brave new world" scenario.

SensEye · Jan 14, 2025

I suspect Reform will merge back with the Conservatives in a few years, once the Conservatives are out of the doghouse. I've seen this movie before.

Virtual ghost · Jan 14, 2025

SensEye said:
I suspect Reform will merge back with the Conservatives in a few years, once the Conservatives are out of the doghouse. I've seen this movie before.

Maybe.

It all depends on how fast will be their decline. If it will be extra slow then the two will probably merge for some new elections. However if Conservatives start to fall fast and stabilize at 6% then I am not sure there will be formal merger. However some people will probably switch sides in this scenario.

Virtual ghost · Jan 14, 2025

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Virtual ghost · Jan 15, 2025

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Virtual ghost · Jan 15, 2025

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Virtual ghost · Jan 15, 2025

SensEye · Jan 15, 2025

Virtual ghost said:
Maybe.

It all depends on how fast will be their decline. If it will be extra slow then the two will probably merge for some new elections. However if Conservatives start to fall fast and stabilize at 6% then I am not sure there will be formal merger. However some people will probably switch sides in this scenario.

I think it will happen eventually because an almost identical scenario played out in Canada in the late 80's. Conservative Party decimated. Reform party created as an alternative for the right.

The thing is, the public have short memories. Even if the Conservatives get taken out to the woodshed for a while, they will eventually start to bounce back to 20% or something. At that point, the Reform and Conservatives will start to realize they will never form power as they will be splitting the vote on the right allowing the left (Labour party primarily) to come up the middle (even if Labour has modest popularity).

They will probably eventually merge, and likely stick with the traditional Conservative Party name, although it might be Reform party policies and major players that hold the reigns. But that will also evolve over a few elections and it will probably get back to pretty much the same old, same old.

I'm not 100% certain, but I bet it plays out this way (might take 8-10 years though).

Virtual ghost · Jan 16, 2025

SensEye said:
I think it will happen eventually because an almost identical scenario played out in Canada in the late 80's. Conservative Party decimated. Reform party created as an alternative for the right.

The thing is, the public have short memories. Even if the Conservatives get taken out to the woodshed for a while, they will eventually start to bounce back to 20% or something. At that point, the Reform and Conservatives will start to realize they will never form power as they will be splitting the vote on the right allowing the left (Labour party primarily) to come up the middle (even if Labour has modest popularity).

They will probably eventually merge, and likely stick with the traditional Conservative Party name, although it might be Reform party policies and major players that hold the reigns. But that will also evolve over a few elections and it will probably get back to pretty much the same old, same old.

I'm not 100% certain, but I bet it plays out this way (might take 8-10 years though).

You told me all of that months ago but I am not fully sure it will be like this.
However If Conservatives crash pretty hard and quickly then I am not sure there will be formal merger. Even if the crash doesn't happen there is an option that they will do what they have already done in some elections. Which is that they define in which district each party will run as right wing party. It is true that Reform was much weaker then but I can see some sort of "chemistry" coming out of this. Plus there will surely be Trump effect that has jet to come fully into effect. This story is "interesting" exactly because it isn't clear what is actually going to happen.