Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost · Oct 3, 2024

Virtual ghost · Oct 3, 2024

Virtual ghost · Oct 3, 2024

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Virtual ghost · Oct 3, 2024

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Red Herring · Oct 3, 2024

Since you are always interested in trends:

It very much looks like the CDU will head the next government, the question is with whom. There have been intense debate within the party with Söder saying they should definitely not work with the Greens, Merz saying he'll not work with the Greens "as of now" (which, mind you, was before the party leadership stepped down collectively so he could have a ready excuse for changing course) and several others who have actually already worked with them on a regional level saying that black and green actually works just fine and is very productive.

A lot can change in a year of course and it's difficult to fortell where polls will be going by then.

Der Spiegel just published an article suggesting that parts of the CDU and SPD are already preparing a return of the grand coalition (the headline of the article is "The Specter of the Grand Coalition Returns", lol)

Virtual ghost · Oct 3, 2024

Red Herring said:
Since you are always interested in trends:

It very much looks like the CDU will head the next government, the question is with whom. There have been intense debate within the party with Söder saying they should definitely not work with the Greens, Merz saying he'll not work with the Greens "as of now" (which, mind you, was before the party leadership stepped down collectively so he could have a ready excuse for changing course) and several others who have actually already worked with them in a regional level saying that black and green actually works just fine and is very productive.

A lot can Change in a year of course and it's difficult to fortell where polla will BE going by then.

Der Spiegel just published an article suggesting that parts of the CDU and SPD are already preparing a return of the grand coalition (the headline of the article is "The Specter of the Grand Coalition Returns", lol)

The fact that CDU will lead next government is something that I already realized on my own. That is completely obvious if you know anything about German politics. Therefore the most natural junior partner is indeed SPD.

The only problem is that currently those two have 47% of the vote in the polling average on Politico. However many smaller parties wouldn't make it and that probably applies to FDP as well. So that should provide the two main parties with 50+% of the seats. The only problem is if the sum of both parties will be bellow 47% in a year from now. In other words if CDU has to govern with SPD and greens that really is opening the question if this is worth it for them. What means that it would perhaps make more sense to have "honest conversation" with AfD instead. After all center right + far right is the new trend all around Europe.

I know that I am not comforting but I am just trying show that I am familiar with all the details of the topic.

Virtual ghost · Oct 5, 2024

Virtual ghost said:
The fact that CDU will lead next government is something that I already realized on my own. That is completely obvious if you know anything about German politics. Therefore the most natural junior partner is indeed SPD.

The only problem is that currently those two have 47% of the vote in the polling average on Politico. However many smaller parties wouldn't make it and that probably applies to FDP as well. So that should provide the two main parties with 50+% of the seats. The only problem is if the sum of both parties will be bellow 47% in a year from now. In other words if CDU has to govern with SPD and greens that really is opening the question if this is worth it for them. What means that it would perhaps make more sense to have "honest conversation" with AfD instead. After all center right + far right is the new trend all around Europe.

I know that I am not comforting but I am just trying show that I am familiar with all the details of the topic.

Germany — National parliament voting intention

This is the problem: CDU and SPD together have only 47% of the vote. Therefore only small parties not making over the line may get them over 50% of the seats. What would create relatively stable new government.

However if the Greens and BSW each take just one more percent away from SPD and AfD takes 2% from CDU the odds are that the two big parties wouldn't have enough to rule on their own. However if CDU has to govern with SPD and Greens then this evidently wouldn't be the mandate they are looking for.

However if FDP gets only one 1% more of the vote they will make it over the line. However that means that much more votes will materialize. What means that even 47% of the vote for CDU+SPD my not be enough. In other words if SPD has to govern with CDU and FDP then it is very likely that it wouldn't be too relevant party after 4 yeras. Since their voters would in mass move to the Greens or BSW. Even today SPD is at the bottom of it's popularity, so falling further would basically end party as a major party in Germany.

In short: the elefant in the room is that anti-system and Russia friendly parties of AfD, BSW and Linke have togather 31% of the vote. What is completely distorting the political spectrum and forces coallitions that are unstable. Since there just isn't enough room to manouver. However as the coalition governments are getting unstable that only tilts voters to anti-system parties.

Virtual ghost · Oct 5, 2024

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Virtual ghost · Oct 5, 2024

Virtual ghost · Oct 5, 2024

Lark · Oct 5, 2024

I do wonder what the future is going to be for the middle east, Israel is the only place talking up an alternative vision for the future, one which wont involve the "same old, same old" conflicts of the past.

I dont think that will necessarily be something positive for anyone who doesnt fit their vision, domestically, in neighbouring states or internationally.

Though moving beyond a sort of forever and a day "perpetual conflict tradition" is something I dont think the Iranians, or others in the region, or, arguably, a lot of people who're opposed to zionism per se, are prepared for.

In a sense its the same with the Russians and Ukraine / the whole of eastern europe, there's no conceiving anything new or different or better than something they imagine existed in the past. Its a flaw in all the conservative or pseudo-conservative / traditionalist ideologies that can adapt or innovate.

Virtual ghost · Oct 5, 2024

Lark said:
In a sense its the same with the Russians and Ukraine / the whole of eastern europe, there's no conceiving anything new or different or better than something they imagine existed in the past. Its a flaw in all the conservative or pseudo-conservative / traditionalist ideologies that can adapt or innovate.

I am not sure about Middle east but I am pretty sure you are wrong about Eastern Europe part of the post. The war in Ukraine is happening EXACTLY because Ukrainian people can imagine something different. 10 years ago Ukraine overthrew the autocratic pro-Russian government in Ukraine. Why ? Because they can imagine something better for themselves. This is why there is war there for 10 years, what some 2.5 years ago escalated into war that the world could no longer ignore. However such a determined defense of a country would not be possible if people in mass don't think that this is worth it. What in the end means that they see something different than their own dark history.

Also last year ultra conservative anti EU government in Poland was replaced by reformist centrist government. The anti Orban movement in Hungary got to the 35% in the polls and thus it is putting pressure on Orban's 45%. Especially since the movement is still growing. While if you add traditional opposition into the mix it is basically 50:50. Bulgaria is currently in the open process of being dragged out of Russian sphere of influence for good. Bosnia has probably the most pro western government ever. In Slovakia things are on the edge of civil war because plenty of people don't really recognize the Russia friendly government. Kinda the same happened in Macedonia where pro Russian despot was ousted and now he is in exile. What allowed the country to join NATO few years back. Also the sanctions against Russia have fried plenty of their economic assets in the region, but that didn't really come out in the western media as a story ..... etc etc. etc.

What the typical western media are saying about Eastern Europe is basically just scratching of the surface and focusing on bad parts. While the turbulence is actually much larger than you can see on TV. What is exactly because status quo is no longer in force. What is exactly because so many got tired of the same old autocratic crap that is going on for centuries. Since it is indeed time to finnish off the story of the collapse of Berlin wall. The generational changes are big enough that this can be finnished off for good as a story.