Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Israel sends troops into Lebanon

Middle East: Israel's military says Iran launched missiles


Evidently story of the day.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Strategic analysis of the war and how the elections in US fit into all of this.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia tightens grip on Donetsk region as it captures key Ukrainian town

Brexit talks are back — forever

 

[Virtual ghost]

.....

Macron: EU has only 2 or 3 years to stave off total US, China dominance

If I can ask: what is your take on this ?
I mean the topic of competitiveness is pretty much everywhere these days, it has various shapes and forms but it is kinda omnipresent.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia and China’s cooperation in the Arctic is a rising nuclear threat

Putin’s war economy faces pain if Saudis sink global oil prices

Russia paying people to vote against joining EU, Moldova warns

Georgia signs sweeping anti-LGBTQ+ bill into law

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

New NATO boss backs Ukraine’s plea for deep strikes into Russia

 

[The Cat]

New NATO boss backs Ukraine’s plea for deep strikes into Russia

hypothetical question here, more so highly unlikely but Ive been wondering. What do you think the Nato response would be if Putin just took a deep breath first thing in the morning and ate the larger frog first and pulled his troops back, called the whole thing off? Granted its an unlikely enough situation to be on par with what do you think would happen in elves got involved in the conflict, and not bother answering beyond: It wouldnt happen. But as someone who is very curious about how systems work and would respond to unlikely scinarios should they come up...I have wondered. What do you think they would do? Let it go and focus on rebuilding? Follow them into russia to fight over there now? What is the SOP for ending wars when one side just says fuck it i dont want to play this game anymore lets play something else?

 

[Virtual ghost]

hypothetical question here, more so highly unlikely but Ive been wondering. What do you think the Nato response would be if Putin just took a deep breath first thing in the morning and ate the larger frog first and pulled his troops back, called the whole thing off? Granted its an unlikely enough situation to be on par with what do you think would happen in elves got involved in the conflict, and not bother answering beyond: It wouldnt happen. But as someone who is very curious about how systems work and would respond to unlikely scinarios should they come up...I have wondered. What do you think they would do? Let it go and focus on rebuilding? Follow them into russia to fight over there now? What is the SOP for ending wars when one side just says fuck it i dont want to play this game anymore lets play something else?

My bet is that they wouldn't make too much drama out of it to make sure that peace lasts. What would be followed with helping Ukraine rebuild itself into a modern country. In other words since it is quite large country that is underdeveloped for it's position all of that would surely made sure that plenty of money rotates in the whole story. What would make sure that Ukraine's army is also rebuild as prevention of this happening again. In short the story would generally look as the path of Western Germany after ww2. Since now the Ukraine would be the front line country for decades to come. While eventually they would probably get EU and NATO membership as well, to make sure they are member of the club that is the first world.


If I would have to make a bet for such a scenario this would be it.
However this isn't that much unlikely if we remake one detail. Which is that Russians may come to the conclusion that the real problem in the mix is the "tzar", not the war. After all It wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Orbán, Le Pen and Wilders are buzzing over Austria’s far right winning election

 

[Virtual ghost]

NATO chief Mark Rutte visits Kyiv

 

[The Cat]

My bet is that they wouldn't make too much drama out of it to make sure that peace lasts. What would be followed with helping Ukraine rebuild itself into a modern country. In other words since it is quite large country that is underdeveloped for it's position all of that would surely made sure that plenty of money rotates in the whole story. What would make sure that Ukraine's army is also rebuild as prevention of this happening again. In short the story would generally look as the path of Western Germany after ww2. Since now the Ukraine would be the front line country for decades to come. While eventually they would probably get EU and NATO membership as well, to make sure they are member of the club that is the first world.


If I would have to make a bet for such a scenario this would be it.
However this isn't that much unlikely if we remake one detail. Which is that Russians may come to the conclusion that the real problem in the mix is the "tzar", not the war. After all It wouldn't be the first time.

I always keep an ear out for swan lake.

 

[Red Herring]

The German police has arrested a 15 year old accused of conspiracy to commit a crime. He is a supporter of the Islamic State and was being egged on by a foreign islamist outside Germany to kill Jews with a knife. They were discussing how and where to kill people.

On that occasion I read that of the about 60 people arrested in Western Europe during the last 11 months on the suspicion of planning an islamist terror attack almost 2/3 were between the ages of 13 and 19. They usually get radicalized through social media - an extremism expert from King's College in London calls them "tiktok jihadist".

 

[Red Herring]

Macron: EU has only 2 or 3 years to stave off total US, China dominance

If I can ask: what is your take on this ?
I mean the topic of competitiveness is pretty much everywhere these days, it has various shapes and forms but it is kinda omnipresent.

I basically agree with him. I do on most issues concerning the EU. Here in Germany the mood is pretty bleak right now. I can only answer for my own country, but think we Europeans often share similar problems.Today is our national holiday, so not the best time to talk about everything that is bad about my country, lol, but since you asked:

Germany has some major problems, most of which are interrelated. As you know, we have a serious demographic problem. Too many old people, not enough children (I also don't share your optimism that this can easily be stopped or turned around - if you know the secret solution, sell it to the Chinese government as they are having the same issue and so far have not been able to solve this). So politics and economics are dominated by older people with an older people mindset. On top of that Germany is structurally conservative to begin with. The country is like a big heavy oiltanker. When it is on course it can venture through storms untathered (which is why we suffered less than others during the 2008 financial crises) but when it drifts off-course it takes some very hard work and/or a major crises to get it back on track. Stable, but not very agile. This is partly due to our history, partly due to demographics and partly because usually our way of doing things is the result of long negotiations and a delicate balance between different social interests. It is hard to change anything without upsetting a lot of people.

We should have totally reformed our economy decades ago, from fossil fuels and combustion engines to renewables and electric vehicles (plus mayor investments in infrastructure). There was a time in the late 90s to early 00s when this would have been feasable and it looked like we might take that road. But then we didn't and have dragged our feet ever since. We clinged on to producing combustion engine cars like Jack in Titanic to the floating door (and we all know what happened to him). China has long since overtaken us in those technologies. It was and is deplorable. Right now our physical infrastructure is falling apart (sometimes literally and quite spectacularly as was recently the case with a collapsing bridge in Dresden). Our roads and railway network needs investment, as does the education and health system...and housing! This is the result of decades of fiscal conservatism (the Merkel administration added a rule to the constitution that forbids deficit spending) and general structural conservatism. Most businesses know this and urge the government to invest...and to set some clear climate protection rules so that they know what they are dealing with!

As an export driven economy we need the Chinese market but also fear Chinese competition. I personally haven't given up on international free trade as an ideal but also come from a culture of ordo-liberalism. So, ideally everybody would "play by the rules" and we profit from a rules-based international market, but if it is necessary to stabilize and salvage Europe, bring on the protectionism and fortification, I guess. *sigh*

You probably already know most of this and probably also know that I am a somewhat naive and romantic adherent of the ideal of the United States of Europe. So, yes, strengthen the internal market and ease internal trade - after all our biggest export market is usually each other. Cut red tape whereever it doesn't mean significant cuts in environmental protection or workers' or consumers' rights. I am also strongly in favor of a much more closely coordinated foreign and defense policy, including joint European defense forces. And a new and fair capacity based system for the distribution of refugees, while we're at it (either take people or pay others to take them for you, basically like emissions certificats, would be a suggestion). Naturally not everybody will want to be part of that kind of close union. That's where the old concept of a "two speeds Europe" comes into play - something like type A and type B membership.

So, yeah. We'll need some major efforts and radical changes in the near future, many of which require long term vision, large investments and the supression of a lot of egos. Is it possible? Technically, yes. Do I think it will actually happen? I am not holding my breath.

 

[Virtual ghost]

hypothetical question here, more so highly unlikely but Ive been wondering. What do you think the Nato response would be if Putin just took a deep breath first thing in the morning and ate the larger frog first and pulled his troops back, called the whole thing off? Granted its an unlikely enough situation to be on par with what do you think would happen in elves got involved in the conflict, and not bother answering beyond: It wouldnt happen. But as someone who is very curious about how systems work and would respond to unlikely scinarios should they come up...I have wondered. What do you think they would do? Let it go and focus on rebuilding? Follow them into russia to fight over there now? What is the SOP for ending wars when one side just says fuck it i dont want to play this game anymore lets play something else?

If war ends I’ll restore relations with Russia, Slovakia’s Fico says

I know that I ready answered this one but here is a fresh article that has something to say on the topic.
How some in Europe will react in such a scenario might shock some people.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I basically agree with him. I do on most issues concerning the EU. Here in Germany the mood is pretty bleak right now. I can only answer for my own country, but think we Europeans often share similar problems.Today is our national holiday, so not the best time to talk about everything that is bad about my country, lol, but since you asked:

Germany has some major problems, most of which are interrelated. As you know, we have a serious demographic problem. Too many old people, not enough children (I also don't share your optimism that this can easily be stopped or turned around - if you know the secret solution, sell it to the Chinese government as they are having the same issue and so far have not been able to solve this). So politics and economics are dominated by older people with an older people mindset. On top of that Germany is structurally conservative to begin with. The country is like a big heavy oiltanker. When it is on course it can venture through storms untathered (which is why we suffered less than others during the 2008 financial crises) but when it drifts off-course it takes some very hard work and/or a major crises to get it back on track. Stable, but not very agile. This is partly due to our history, partly due to demographics and partly because usually our way of doing things is the result of long negotiations and a delicate balance between different social interests. It is hard to change anything without upsetting a lot of people.

We should have totally reformed our economy decades ago, from fossil fuels and combustion engines to renewables and electric vehicles (plus mayor investments in infrastructure). There was a time in the late 90s to early 00s when this would have been feasable and it looked like we might take that road. But then we didn't and have dragged our feet ever since. We clinged on to producing combustion engine cars like Jack in Titanic to the floating door (and we all know what happened to him). China has long since overtaken us in those technologies. It was and is deplorable. Right now our physical infrastructure is falling apart (sometimes literally and quite spectacularly as was recently the case with a collapsing bridge in Dresden). Our roads and railway network needs investment, as does the education and health system...and housing! This is the result of decades of fiscal conservatism (the Merkel administration added a rule to the constitution that forbids deficit spending) and general structural conservatism. Most businesses know this and urge the government to invest...and to set some clear climate protection rules so that they know what they are dealing with!

As an export driven economy we need the Chinese market but also fear Chinese competition. I personally haven't given up on international free trade as an ideal but also come from a culture of ordo-liberalism. So, ideally everybody would "play by the rules" and we profit from a rules-based international market, but if it is necessary to stabilize and salvage Europe, bring on the protectionism and fortification, I guess. *sigh*

You probably already know most of this and probably also know that I am a somewhat naive and romantic adherent of the ideal of the United States of Europe. So, yes, strengthen the internal market and ease internal trade - after all our biggest export market is usually each other. Cut red tape whereever it doesn't mean significant cuts in environmental protection or workers' or consumers' rights. I am also strongly in favor of a much more closely coordinated foreign and defense policy, including joint European defense forces. And a new and fair capacity based system for the distribution of refugees, while we're at it (either take people or pay others to take them for you, basically like emissions certificats, would be a suggestion). Naturally not everybody will want to be part of that kind of close union. That's where the old concept of a "two speeds Europe" comes into play - something like type A and type B membership.

So, yeah. We'll need some major efforts and radical changes in the near future, many of which require long term vision, large investments and the supression of a lot of egos. Is it possible? Technically, yes. Do I think it will actually happen? I am not holding my breath.

Thanks, I just wanted to hear the opinion since this topic is so present once you scratch the surface. Especially since quite a few high class documents and debates came out on the topic.

However as I told our American friends: you are kinda mixing your own national depression with idea that everyone feels like that in the current global situation. In other words not everyone is Europe is in such a bad mood (because it has so many economic problems and dysfunctional ruling coalition). Therefore I will just post you the graph that clearly explains why I don't really share your mood even if I can agree with many of your arguments (this is why I often sound "arrogant").

Plus it is worth saying that this is genuine and that it isn't based on levels of extra public debt.
In other words if Germany is oil tanker than Croatia is speed boat, what means that due to our size we can quickly adapt to various situations (especially since we are far less rigid in the terms of national mindset, we are basically e9 evolving into e3). Plus my governing coalition seems much more stable than yours, what really matters in the times like these. After all we were smart enough to see what is coming and we found none Russian energy before the war and constructed the infrastructure. So now our LNG infrastructure is becoming main supplier of natural gas for huge parts of Central Europe, parts of Bavaria included. After all Soder came here to make the deal himself a while ago. Also we found potential ways how we can fix our type of demographic problems (as I already explained). Plus various reforms are already in the process. Therefore the economy is doing so great that for the fist time in history we just got "A class" financial rating as a country. Plus we are in the process of entering OECD. What overall means that we are becoming fist world country in the real sense of the world.


I kinda asked you the question exactly since I currently don't experience things as bad as most of Europe. Even if you have my sympathy for the current mess in Germany.