Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Falcarius]

Since you evidently didn't get the memo: Europe has more than enough of it's own problems to really care about what UK wants. That is almost surely the most correct interpretation of all the facts that you have said. The family is in deep argument and no one really cares about the sales person at the door (what is UK at this point).



Btw Scholz doesn't have a few years left, Germany is going to the polls next year and there he will almost surely be defeated by center right. However if in a few months far right takes the regions in ex eastern Germany it is very likely that he would be forced to call snap elections. Something similar might even happen to Macron since 3/4 of the country doesn't support him. What is actually likely to be increased even further as he will probably get hanged and ungovernable parliament.


On the other hand Farage has openly said that he is going after Labor and that means that Le Pen should side with him(if she even cares about UK). What is because these two are natural allies, not her and Labor. She is also negotiating about joining Orban's new group and that means that labor is completely out of the picture. After all her main opponent in today's elections is French version of Labor. While if UK Labor and Le Pen indeed become buddies you can kinda forget any kind of a deals with EU. Since that would completely piss off the establishment. Therefore if there will be any energy left for EU foreign policy that will almost surely go towards Ukraine and eastern neighborhood in general (or towards Africa). Since that is where are real drama and real potential gains.


EDIT: at best you will be given some mediocre trade deal and peace in Northern Ireland (for the sake of stability). However these are too turbulent times that someone would have the appetite for something in depth with UK.

Nobody is saying Europe cares about the UK. The EU looks out for its interests and the UK looks out for its interests. The UK left the EU as the direction it is heading is alien to the political traditions of the country -supernationalism v intergovernmentalism. The people of the UK on the whole would much prefer the EU to be a trade block and the EU is trying to become a USA of Europe with all the bells and whistles that entails. The EU could have found a way to accommodate the UK in a two-speed Europe but instead chose further centralization and in doing so made its marriage untenable. On the whole, the reason people voted for Brexit wasn't out of some Pax Britannica but out of acceptance that the UK has lost its soft power- that the UK has too few friends who too little power so could never reform the EU. Idiotically, the EU thought the UK would never leave and that if it did it could just overturn it, as it did after the Lisbon Treaty in the French and Dutch and the Irish with the European Constitution referendum. The EU made its bed and now it has to lie in it.

As anyone who has ever dated someone who is neurotic and won't accept a relationship being over, will know it is commonly due to the submissive partner breaking free and no longer being able to be abused. This reflects a very particular power imbalance and set of tactics that have become the pattern in the relationship, once free of the relationship the domineering partner no longer holds the power. The UK expects no gifts from the EU and just wants to be left the hell alone to listen to break-up songs to recover from the psychodrama of its failed marriage to a domineering partner who never truly loved it. Once freed of societal conditioning and institutionalization, the submissive partner commonly imprisons oneself in the mental hospital within their very own mind.

UK Governments have to work together with as many countries as possible, even when they have fundamental differences, such as what happens with the UK and countries like Saudi Arabia and China. It is the interest of the UK to trade and work with these countries despite having horrific human rights, one is a manufacturing powerhouse and the other an oil-producing powerhouse. For similar reasons, while it would be much more preferable to the UK for the great power of Europe to elect moderate center-right and center-left, even if France, Germany, and Italy go, full-blown fascists, then the UK will have to try to carry on its relationship for purely selfish reasons as it does with the Chinese and Saudi regimes currently. The point is geopolitics isn't black and white like you are trying to make out.

​

 

[Virtual ghost]

Nobody is saying Europe cares about the UK. The EU looks out for its interests and the UK looks out for its interests. The UK left the EU as the direction it is heading is alien to the political traditions of the country -supernationalism v intergovernmentalism. The people of the UK on the whole would much prefer the EU to be a trade block and the EU is trying to become a USA of Europe with all the bells and whistles that entails. The EU could have found a way to accommodate the UK in a two-speed Europe but instead chose further centralization and in doing so made its marriage untenable. On the whole, the reason people voted for Brexit wasn't out of some Pax Britannica but out of acceptance that the UK has lost its soft power- that the UK has too few friends who too little power so could never reform the EU. Idiotically, the EU thought the UK would never leave and that if it did it could just overturn it, as it did after the Lisbon Treaty in the French and Dutch and the Irish with the European Constitution referendum. The EU made its bed and now it has to lie in it.

As anyone who has ever dated someone who is neurotic and won't accept a relationship being over, will know it is commonly due to the submissive partner breaking free and no longer being able to be abused. This reflects a very particular power imbalance and set of tactics that have become the pattern in the relationship, once free of the relationship the domineering partner no longer holds the power. The UK expects no gifts from the EU and just wants to be left the hell alone to listen to break-up songs to recover from the psychodrama of its failed marriage to a domineering partner who never truly loved it. Once freed of societal conditioning and institutionalization, the submissive partner commonly imprisons oneself in the mental hospital within their very own mind.

UK Governments have to work together with as many countries as possible, even when they have fundamental differences, such as what happens with the UK and countries like Saudi Arabia and China. It is the interest of the UK to trade and work with these countries despite having horrific human rights, one is a manufacturing powerhouse and the other an oil-producing powerhouse. For similar reasons, while it would be much more preferable to the UK for the great power of Europe to elect moderate center-right and center-left, even if France, Germany, and Italy go, full-blown fascists, then the UK will have to try to carry on its relationship for purely selfish reasons as it does with the Chinese and Saudi regimes currently. The point is geopolitics isn't black and white like you are trying to make out.

​

Dude, in Europe the whole Brexit thing is forgotten. You left and that is it, we can be normal neighbors but that is all there will be to it. As you says UK doesn't belong into the EU. While EU has full blown war in on it's eastern flank, migrant crisis, decoupling with China, aging population, organizing institutions to be more structurally solid, return of Trump, green deal, fighting the so called "populism" .... EU has it's own hands completely full. While it seems that UK still lives in Brexit atmosphere since it didn't really sort out what happened on referendum day. However for the average EU citizen that is simply forgotten story. Especially in the countries that aren't even close to UK.


I don't want you to suffer but until current mess subsides a little there probably wouldn't be any too deep remakes of relationship. The current defeat of Le Pen indeed makes things easier but due to whole situation in the big picture I wouldn't expect too fast remake of what once was. Especially since both sides have changed over the years. Therefore good neighborly relations are probably the maximum that can be expected over the next decade. What the EU will take since it has to focus more in it's eastern and southern borders. Since there the problems are much much bigger.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France election results 2024: Who is winning across the country


These are the results that will be coming in over the election night.

Just a few more seats and that is it.
But next to the disaster this could have been this is pretty decent result. Quite high turnout almost surely saved the day and made the situation "manageable".

 

[Virtual ghost]

NATO needs to look toward Pacific because of current realities, Jens Stoltenberg says

 

[Virtual ghost]

5 things to know about France’s messy election

Marine Le Pen vs. Jordan Bardella: France’s next power struggle


As usual, the morning after you have much clearer picture of what actually happened.
However if things really go this way center right should start a campaign against Le Pen's party. Which should have the goal of taking back so many of rural areas where she took over. Now when things and messy and disappointment is high it is probably the right time to do this. In other words the current model that every 2 years we have a scare of will Le Pen win isn't really sustainable. Therefore the party's base has to be drained so that they aren't a constant threat. Because once you take France that would quickly disrupt the whole order of the developed world. Therefore this has to be sorted out in more permanent fashion.

 

[The Cat]

Don't Panic.​

 

[Virtual ghost]

Don't Panic.​

Since he isn't expert on French politics here is more detailed explanation of what happened. The exact explanation of how the left and center together gamed the system starts at 3:05. Since this is indeed engineered result and not a genuine one. Plus media made a huge deal out of all this with the darkness and panic, that was the subtle strategy more than anything else. Since if you scare people enough they may show at the polling station even if they didn't really plan to (this is exactly what created highest turnout since early 80s). While center right didn't fully implode as expected. What would gave the far right most of the countryside and many of their voters in some districts. What would carry the far right over the finish line in many places.


Therefore when you summarize all of this you are getting the shock result that you are getting. However this is actually logical result based on what was done. However since far right came first in EU elections and the 1th round this basically had to be done to wake up people and to channel their votes.


In a sense this is good example of why you should have multiparty system. So that you can have much more flexible approach towards radicals. Because if you go 1:1 with them that can be messy, since protest votes will almost surely go towards them. While in multi-party system you can make additional routes for lowering the pressure. Or you can increase the pressure between mainstream groups so that voters divide themselves among such group and forget about the actual radicals. This is why the system is good, since you have more options as well as some kind of backup if you really need it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Patriots for Europe becomes EU parliament’s 3rd-largest group, picks Jordan Bardella as president


Of course.
The great patriots and they are going with Orban that is current selling us out in Beijing (and he was in Moscow yesterday).

Hungary's Orban concludes Beijing 'peace mission 3.0' visit

Orban visits Putin on 'peace trip,' EU laments 'appeasement'



Only a complete idiot doesn't see what is actually going on here. Which is exactly why it had to be done what was done in French elections. French parliament is just too important to fall into the hands like these. They are simply too close to very well established autocrats (and they are taking money and investments from them).

 

[SensEye]

As usual, the morning after you have much clearer picture of what actually happened.
However if things really go this way center right should start a campaign against Le Pen's party. Which should have the goal of taking back so many of rural areas where she took over. Now when things and messy and disappointment is high it is probably the right time to do this. In other words the current model that every 2 years we have a scare of will Le Pen win isn't really sustainable. Therefore the party's base has to be drained so that they aren't a constant threat. Because once you take France that would quickly disrupt the whole order of the developed world. Therefore this has to be sorted out in more permanent fashion.

You are probably right re: the center right trying to gain more influence. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I suspect this left wing coalition will prove quite harmful for France and it's economy. If that happens, the far right will gain a lot of traction. The middle class does not like to see it's wealth erode due to inflation and GDP stagnation. I could see a spending orgy from the left dragging France's economy down to the level of Italy. And the politics then following a similar trend as well (i.e. towards populism).

But we'll see. I would rather have seen the RN be given a chance to govern for a learning experience, but letting the far left have a crack should also be instructive (in 'what not to do'). Time will tell.

Saw this in a random article on the French election:

Disagreements over economic and foreign policies could spill over, as the NFP’s expansive spending plans – which include raising the minimum wage, capping the price of certain foods and energy and scrapping Macron’s pension reforms – collide with the European Union’s restrictive fiscal rules and France’s need to rein in its ballooning deficit.

Running up the deficit is always the left's go to governance strategy. Spend yourself rich as it were. It hasn't worked in the past, I doubt it will work this time.

 

[Virtual ghost]

You are probably right re: the center right trying to gain more influence. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I suspect this left wing coalition will prove quite harmful for France and it's economy. If that happens, the far right will gain a lot of traction. The middle class does not like to see it's wealth erode due to inflation and GDP stagnation. I could see a spending orgy from the left dragging France's economy down to the level of Italy. And the politics then following a similar trend as well (i.e. towards populism).

But we'll see. I would rather have seen the RN be given a chance to govern for a learning experience, but letting the far left have a crack should also be instructive (in 'what not to do'). Time will tell.

Saw this in a random article on the French election:


Running up the deficit is always the left's go to governance strategy. Spend yourself rich as it were. It hasn't worked in the past, I doubt it will work this time.

With all due respect I think that you have a little bit too cartoonish picture of how left spends the money. After all this money will continue to circulate the economy and thus it will find a way back into the government (where it can be spent again). Just if the left in your country is bad with money that doesn't mean that this is the case in all countries. My local green party is currently cleaning the debts left by the right. Therefore you are either fiscally responsible or you aren't, left/right have very little to do with that. Left and right are more about priorities than anything else. Plus as you noticed there are EU regulations in this matter and that should cut out the most wild of the spending. Not to mention that Macron's centrists didn't really prove to be all that good with money. Since in the case that they were all of this would have looked quite differently.


However in my book center right in France has to get more ground since center right is pro EU option. While far right evidently isn't. Therefore it is much better that center right controls rural areas than the far right. Since every two years having Le Pen drama over and over again simply isn't sustainable. The problem has to be solved in more permanent fashion.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine updates: Anger over Kyiv children's hospital strike

 

[Virtual ghost]

China and Belarus hold joint drills near Polish border ahead of NATO summit

 

[SensEye]

With all due respect I think that you have a little bit too cartoonish picture of how left spends the money. After all this money will continue to circulate the economy and thus it will find a way back into the government (where it can be spent again). Just if the left in your country is bad with money that doesn't mean that this is the case in all countries. My local green party is currently cleaning the debts left by the right.

Well, as you accuse me of not understanding Eastern Bloc countries I accuse you of not understanding western countries. You can assert the Croatian greens have been reasonable, but I give to you Greece, Argentina, and Venezuela as counter examples. And those countries face a long (like generational) road back. Venezuela may never come back. They could go the way of N. Korea.

Right wing parties are no saints when it comes to budgets either. Irresponsible leaders prioritize hanging on to power above all else. And bribing voters with their own money is a tried and true practice. That works until it doesn't. So both sides with a 'power uber alles' approach will run up the deficit. It's not their money after all. If they can steal enough of it as they go, they'll come out fine when they eventually get the boot.

You think France will be fine. I don't. We'll see.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I just like to see Le Pen defeated, although that might be exagerrating.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well, as you accuse me of not understanding Eastern Bloc countries I accuse you of not understanding western countries. You can assert the Croatian greens have been reasonable, but I give to you Greece, Argentina, and Venezuela as counter examples. And those countries face a long (like generational) road back. Venezuela may never come back. They could go the way of N. Korea.

Right wing parties are no saints when it comes to budgets either. Irresponsible leaders prioritize hanging on to power above all else. And bribing voters with their own money is a tried and true practice. That works until it doesn't. So both sides with a 'power uber alles' approach will run up the deficit. It's not their money after all. If they can steal enough of it as they go, they'll come out fine when they eventually get the boot.

You think France will be fine. I don't. We'll see.

That isn't what I said, I said that fiscal responsibility is completely individual from political party to political party. East/west, left or right aren't true representatives of who stands where in practice. Plus as EU citizen I wouldn't declare myself ignorant on France. Since my living is pretty close to life in France. Because the same package of EU laws governs me and France. If I wish tomorrow I can pack my bags and move to France to live there. Since as citizen of EU I would be treated as domestic person there. After all Croatia uses exactly the same currency as France (Euro). Not to mention that I voted together with French in elections for EU parliament last month. Since EU is basically single country at this point. What is the reality that tends to escape most people in North America. Which think of Europe more as it was in the 90s or even 80s (before modern day EU).


Therefore now we are coming to the element when you said that understanding of EU politics is a full time job (and it is). In other words left wing parties that won don't have majority in the French parliament. In EU winning just means that you are the largest party or coalition and that you take some of the key seats, not that you have open road to do as you like (rarely someones gets over 50% on their own). What means that French left will probably make some kind of alliance with Macron's centrists to make the country work until next elections. Especially since they are only the largest party in the lower house of parliament. Upper house, the president, the regions, local authorities ... that wasn't on the ballot. Another factor is that French left (all 4 parties of it) are in direct alliance with other left wing parties around Europe. What means that through such channels there will be active attempts to keep France working (for the sake of France and EU). Also it is worth saying that French center left in EU parliament is part of center left block. Which is in coalition with centrist and center right block and with them runs the EU. What opens another channels of how to smooth situation in France. There are even more of the channels but I will cut the story. You get the idea.



Therefore general stagnation and status quo are probably the most likely outcomes until further notice (what means that the country will live). However all of this is more due to the mess in the bigger global picture than it's internal situation. Since in those conditions it is it much harder to make working economy. However that is the problem regardless of who won in France. Which is exactly why I said that fiscal responsibility doesn't firmly correlate to left or right. That equation is much more complicated than that.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Macron’s camp plots unlikely comeback amid French election chaos


Updates.
However by North American standards of politics this is all too complicated to feel natural. Will the left even get the post of Primer minister remains uncertain.

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU announces Georgia’s accession is ‘stopped’ after anti-West pivot

 

[Virtual ghost]

Inside von der Leyen’s charm offensive ahead of knife-edge vote on her future

The big day is coming fast and it is unclear if she has the majority in the parliament (which should give her another mandate on the top of EU). If the center and center left don't stand behind her almost completely her own center right block evidently can't save her. Therefore if she fails the system has to look for another leader by the rules ... and it is completely unclear who would that be.

In other words in EU you are voting for electors and sets in the EU parliament are electoral votes.

 

[Virtual ghost]