• You are currently viewing our forum as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community, you will have access to additional post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), view blogs, respond to polls, upload content, and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free, so please join our community today! Just click here to register. You should turn your Ad Blocker off for this site or certain features may not work properly. If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us by clicking here.

Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
French election: Your guide to a vote that is set to shake the EU and NATO

There is only 10 days to go until first round. However if the far right that has it's roots in 1940s manages to win that is going to be the shock that will be felt for years (if not decades). After all they are first in the polls and they have a few potential allies. What means that they have open shoot at winning. While the main alternative to all of that it seems that will be left wing coalition that involves Communist party as well.

Therefore this is going to be drama heavy however you turn it.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
Fair enough. You should assume when I comment on politics, I am generally referring to western socialist democracies with capitalist economic markets.

I would think non-market economies are relatively immigration proof as the whole reason most people are migrating is that they come from authoritarian or socialist countries with dirt poor economies. It makes little sense to undergo the upheaval and culture shift required for migration just to get to another authoritarian or socialist countries with a dirt poor economy.

I know, I know, "dirt poor" is a subjective term. ;)

But the crux of my argument remains the same. Legal migration only, if a country wants to set that legal quota to zero for a period of time, that's fine. They key is to get the structure defined before it's too late.



It seems that now we have hit the wall where you can't really follow me.
Since you don't understand the details of living in the Slavic world. However I will dive exactly into that (since I feel like it).


For people like you this topic comes down to "Communism is bad, but we won". However to most of you no one really tried to get into details of what happened after the fall of Berlin wall on the eastern side of the wall. Therefore now you have cultural shock over the war in Ukraine. While if you watch my posts here from a decade ago I was saying that there will come the time when Russia will blow up the world order. I mean that is ok, not even western politicians believed us that war of this scale was possible in Europe. However that is simply negation of how Eastern Europe works.


Therefore I know about what you were talking about, however if you are talking about that you aren't talking about my part of Europe . Which is still in the transition between Communism and Capitalism, since it is to the east of ex Iron Curtain. Although when it comes to my living environment the transition is kinda complete for the most part. My local economy in it's current structure is fairly similar to the ones in Western Europe (which is still visibly to the left of North America). Plus the growth is about 3-4% growth and public debt is falling for years. Therefore in a sense it is actually doing much better than typical western country at this point. Cynics would even say that it is doing much better. However some of that is evidently due to the fact that many key/basic segments of economy aren't privately owned. What allows the government to keep the prices unnaturally low and thus it avoids the worst of inflation and similar problems (which we kinda can't really afford). After all in the region where dictators and war are never that far away it is actually smart to keep the basics as public property. Since you have to prepare for the scanario that business as usual could abruptly stop at some point. This is exactly why here COVID caused minimal cultural shock at the start.


However all that doesn't mean that there isn't substantial number of those that want to fully turn back the clock, so that things are more like before the fall of Berlin wall. What is the demographic that doesn't really exists in the typical western country, since all these people ever experienced are various versions of Capitalism. Although it is worth mentioning that most of that demographic that wants to turn the clock around are older people. Since these are the people who never really adapted to the economy that is more market based (since old people aren't overly adaptive in general). Plus in the transition from one system to another many of them lost plenty in the terms of jobs, saving, retirement etc. Therefore they think of the new system as some sort of scam. Especially since in schools they were thought that capitalism is a scam. What kinda came to life due to region wide pretty messy transition from one system to another. However with generational changes that is the glitch that will sort itself out for the most part


However what is quite likely to stay is the political right, which dreams of nation states across the region. After all these people didn't really crash the Communism so that we become the countries that import large number of random people from global south. While the difference that these people are legal or illegal immigrants is kinda irrelevant for out local conversation on the topic. What is because that was never the plan behind why the Berlin wall came down. It came down so that the nations behind the wall can build their own nation states on local culture and history. Not some experimental left wing ideology that is full of contradictions. That is why the wall came down, not because we really wanted to be exactly like you (here is making collective not personal statement). This is exactly why all post Communist countries have rejected large scale accepting of various refugees. While even the experiment with legal and economy based immigration isn't really to the liking of most (in the eareas where it was actually tried, since in some it wasn't tried). Therefore most countries in the region are trying to develop alternatives to mass immigration of foreigners (as explained before).


But the story doesn't really stop there. What is because many people in establishment(s) realized that on it's own this wouldn't give too much in desired results if the Western Europe becomes too multicultural. Since being in the sandwich between Russia and multiculturalzied western Europe probably wouldn't make for that great future. What started the project of pulling the Western Europe back into more traditional mindset. The project that seem to be going above expectations if we judge by the current headlines. Since the multiple crisis have hit and now the consensus in Western Europe is trying to find some sort of new normal. What can be directly seen in how centrist and liberal progressive forces are losing steam all across the region.



Here I will stop with the story mode since all of this is getting too long. However that is story of why this part of the world will never really accept some of the worldviews that you hold. It isn't personal, this is simply what you in North America are calling "local culture". It is what it is.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
Fresh setback for Renew as 5 MEPs choose Greens

Former Czech PM Andrej Babiš quits liberal Renew group in EU Parliament


Very bad day for centrists in Europe. The Volt party has said that they will join the greens instead of them. What hurts even if objectively speaking Volt is more of a progressive party than a liberal-centrist party,

However then came the cold shower: Czech delegation is packing their bags and they are leaving the group. I mean they have about 10% of all seats of the group, Not to mention that recently the group lost the top seat in the Netherlands, it seems that they lost it in Belgium as well. Also just about everything is suggesting that next week they will face a MAJOR implosion in elections for French parliament. Therefore it is time to say that this block is simply falling apart.




Von der Leyen, Meloni and the battle for Brussels top jobs: What’s next?

However all of the above only complicates things in the big picture. Since Ursula needs to be confirmed in the EU parliament and the 3 mainstream blocks have only about 40 seat majority. Plus it is perfectly obvious that in the not everyone will vote for her (the leaving Czech guy is the obvious symptom of that). However you only have one shoot in the parliament and if that fails the system has to search for another candidate. However if certain parties leave mainstream it is coming into the question will any kind of mainstream majority be possible. What brings into the loop the Greens, hard right and some independents. However that makes things unpredictable. Especially since many of those people are unacceptable to various parts of the mainstream. Therefore someone evidently wouldn't get what they want out of all this, the only real question is who exactly will that be.

Or if you want it in pure American: the seats in the parliament are basically Electoral votes and you must gather 361 of them to take the top job.
 

SensEye

Active member
Joined
May 10, 2007
Messages
882
MBTI Type
INTp
French women voters swing sharply to far right

And this is just another piece that says that we quite possibly going for the culture shock next week.
Once again, illegal immigration rears it's ugly head. It's not culture shock to me that women might fear an influx of patriarchal immigrants (especially if they are staunchly anti-women's rights Muslims). At a certain point those immigrants will hold significant political influence and will shape government policy. Women should be highly motivated to prevent that.

This notion causes cognitive dissonance among the left (woke) but it makes perfect rational sense. Too bad their dogma prevents them from realizing it.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
Once again, illegal immigration rears it's ugly head. It's not culture shock to me that women might fear an influx of patriarchal immigrants (especially if they are staunchly anti-women's rights Muslims). At a certain point those immigrants will hold significant political influence and will shape government policy. Women should be highly motivated to prevent that.

This notion causes cognitive dissonance among the left (woke) but it makes perfect rational sense. Too bad their dogma prevents them from realizing it.


But you are forgetting one thing, the women are turning towards the radical party since they are promising to cut ALL immigration. Not just the legal one. The trick is that legal immigrants from 3rd world countries can also do just about everything you have said. Since that is just how it is in their own country/culture (most of the 3rd world is more or less like that). Not to mention that when visa to legal immigrant expires then they are becomes illegal immigrant, but some of those still manage to stay in the country. In reverse someone can come illegally but they can perhaps get a shoot of living in the country.


Therefore this is exactly why the country is turning to the most radical party on the map. Since they are promising that they will completely close the doors (and sort out what is already in). What is exactly what average Joe actually wants. Especially since legal immigration is tilting the labor market towards the employers. Plus immigration at this scale is causing housing crisis and rise of prices all across the country. So more and more of "original" French seem to be in the mood that they just want to nuke the whole system. Which is exactly why it might happen.
 

ceecee

Coolatta® Enjoyer
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
16,334
MBTI Type
INTJ
Enneagram
8w9
Once again, illegal immigration rears it's ugly head. It's not culture shock to me that women might fear an influx of patriarchal immigrants (especially if they are staunchly anti-women's rights Muslims). At a certain point those immigrants will hold significant political influence and will shape government policy. Women should be highly motivated to prevent that.

This notion causes cognitive dissonance among the left (woke) but it makes perfect rational sense. Too bad their dogma prevents them from realizing it.
Yes because the right has historically been very pro women's rights.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
United Kingdom general election polls


This one is also getting into the zone of "shocking". The Farage and his nationalistic/patriotic party are openly draining the vote from both Labor and Conservatives. Therefore he is getting so close to the conservatives that on the election day he will surpass them if the polls are right. What then indicates that he will get a fair share of seats across the country, with which he can work further.

To complicate things even further UK vote is just days behind the vote in France. So if French go for system shock there are very good odds that at least some of that will spill into neighboring UK.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
Yes because the right has historically been very pro women's rights.

I am afraid that in Europe this is more complicated topic. Especially since out of all three right wing groups in EU parliament all 3 of them have women as the most powerful figure of the block. Therefore in Europe this logic at this point doesn't fully add up.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,155
I am afraid that in Europe this is more complicated topic. Especially since out of all three right wing groups in EU parliament all 3 of them have women as the most powerful figure of the block. Therefore in Europe this logic at this point doesn't fully add up.




Here we can even add a video made by left wing youtube channel that is kinda trying to smear all 3 of them.
Therefore in Europe this really isn't as simple topic as it is in US.
 
Top