Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

This happens whenever a party suffers a defeat, and it's extremely dumb, and I wish it would be outlawed. I remember it in 2004 when Kerry lost, and in 2008 when McCain lost (this was especially played up; the way people acted, we were meant to think the Republican base disappeared). 2016 you had a premature one with an insistence that Trump would "destroy" the Republican party.

1. We are talking about multiparty system and in multiparty system it isn't super hard to replace a party with another one or even multiple parties. Projecting this argument on US is kinda mixing apples and oranges.


2. Btw I am pretty sure this qualifies as "destroyed".

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

1. We are talking about multiparty system and in multiparty system it isn't super hard to replace a party with another one or even multiple parties. Projecting this argument on US is kinda mixing apples and oranges.

I was just thinking of the U.S., of course.

2. Btw I am pretty sure this qualifies as "destroyed".

I don't think destroyed parties typically get to remake the nation in their image. We'll have to wait for November.

These are also all the things many Republicans already believed; people would know that if they ever bothered communicating with any of them, or stopped assuming that they didn't mean what they said when they said it.

Everyone was saying Trump would destroy the party when he announced his candidacy in 2015. Didn't Roe vs. Wade get struck down two summers ago? Why are people still insisting that he destroyed the party when they're winning and achieving their long-held goals? I don't get it. To me it looks like a bizarre way of coping with reality. I know someone who insists that Trump "was never elected" since he didn't win the popular vote (which doesn't matter... what difference does this even make)?

 

[The Cat]

A thing can be destroyed and have a new horror rise up in its place. There was more than one Rome in history.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I was just thinking of the U.S., of course.

I don't think destroyed parties typically get to remake the nation in their image. We'll have to wait for November.

These are also all the things many Republicans already believed; people would know that if they ever bothered communicating with any of them, or stopped assuming that they didn't mean what they said when they said it.

Everyone was saying Trump would destroy the party when he announced his candidacy in 2015. Didn't Roe vs. Wade get struck down two summers ago? Why are people still insisting that he destroyed the party when they're winning and achieving their long-held goals? I don't get it. To me it looks like a bizarre way of coping with reality. I know someone who insists that Trump "was never elected" since he didn't win the popular vote (which doesn't matter... what difference does this even make)?

My first point was the actual argument.

While the second point and that video was more of a dark humor on my part. After all there is a thin line between "destroyed" and "remade".

 

[Virtual ghost]

G7 strikes provisional deal on using Russian assets for $50B Ukraine loan

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia meddling in Moldova elections, Western allies allege

 

[SensEye]

The idea is that Reform UK would replace them as the main party of the right in UK. Therefore if you watch it from that angle the party is indeed fighting for survival. Plus there probably wouldn't be any kind of genuine merger with Reform UK. Since that party was designed exactly so that it replaces them. Some people will perhaps change ship if Reform decides to take them but that is pretty much it.

In polling average Reform is just 6% behind them and the gap is closing. What is existential threat to the party. Although it can be argued that Reform UK is actually the genuine Tori party. What makes this debate kinda complicated to sort out.

Yep. This has uncanny parallels to what happened in Canada in the 80's. The Conservative party at the time was widely despised after two terms in power. They had moved too far to the center, abandoning conservative values in a grab for power. A new party (called the Reform Party of course) was formed for disenfranchised conservatives. The Conservative party was demolished in the next election, winning only 2 seats. A party needs to win 12 seats in the Canadian Legislature to gain official party status, so the party was pretty much dead. The Reform party finished 2nd in that election.

Anyhow, time passes, the Conservatives start to build back, and the right realizes they can't have two parties splitting the vote. So the Reform party merged with what was left of the Conservatives. They called the resulting party the Canadian Alliance. That name didn't market well so they went back to calling themselves the Conservative Party of Canada. More time passes and it these days it seems the same as it ever was. Conservatives vs the Liberals and a few other smaller parties floating around.

I suspect the UK will follow a very similar path.

 

[Virtual ghost]

French election descends into madcap reality TV

Only a few days in and the campaign is already ugly.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yep. This has uncanny parallels to what happened in Canada in the 80's. The Conservative party at the time was widely despised after two terms in power. They had moved too far to the center, abandoning conservative values in a grab for power. A new party (called the Reform Party of course) was formed for disenfranchised conservatives. The Conservative party was demolished in the next election, winning only 2 seats. A party needs to win 12 seats in the Canadian Legislature to gain official party status, so the party was pretty much dead. The Reform party finished 2nd in that election.

Anyhow, time passes, the Conservatives start to build back, and the right realizes they can't have two parties splitting the vote. So the Reform party merged with what was left of the Conservatives. They called the resulting party the Canadian Alliance. That name didn't market well so they went back to calling themselves the Conservative Party of Canada. More time passes and it these days it seems the same as it ever was. Conservatives vs the Liberals and a few other smaller parties floating around.

I suspect the UK will follow a very similar path.

My prediction was kinda going in the same direction. However the trick is that Reform surely wouldn't take just about everyone from the Tories. Since in that case the Refom is basically becoming pointless party. Since it would literally become Tori party with another name, what isn't really the point. Therefore I say that for the bulk of Tori establishment this is the game of survival. Especially since today politics is generally much more of a elimination game than it was back in the 80s (in my opinion).

We will soon see where all of this is actually going.

 

[Virtual ghost]

G7 summit: Leaders to focus on migration, Africa, AI

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

France election live: Le Maire warns of financial crisis as chaos engulfs French politics

How Nigel Farage blew up the UK election


Just in case your day needs more drama in it.

 

[SensEye]

My prediction was kinda going in the same direction. However the trick is that Reform surely wouldn't take just about everyone from the Tories. Since in that case the Refom is basically becoming pointless party. Since it would literally become Tori party with another name, what isn't really the point. Therefore I say that for the bulk of Tori establishment this is the game of survival. Especially since today politics is generally much more of a elimination game than it was back in the 80s (in my opinion).

We will soon see where all of this is actually going.

Again, that is what is similar to the scenario I refer too (it was in the 90's not the 80's not that it really matters). The Reform-Conservative party merger resulted in the new party moving back towards the right as the Reform party was negotiating from a position of strength at the time. However, I should also mention the Conservative party was recovering in the polling numbers, they were still in 3rd but not completely irrelevant so the Reform party had to acknowledge they could never win an election while splitting the vote with the Conservatives. So comprise had to be made by both parties.

I'm almost certain the UK story will play out the same. Sure it's rough on the 'Tory establishment' as you say. But they were the ones to drive the party into the ground, so some housecleaning is required. The UK Labour party should win at least the next 2 elections while chaos on the right ensues. Maybe even a 3rd if Starmer does a good (or even adequate job) although that might be a stretch. The electorate has a short memory and 4 or 8 years is a long time to remember how much the Conservatives mucked things up, assuming they can get their ducks in a row and are not still infighting with Reform during that whole window.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Again, that is what is similar to the scenario I refer too (it was in the 90's not the 80's not that it really matters). The Reform-Conservative party merger resulted in the new party moving back towards the right as the Reform party was negotiating from a position of strength at the time. However, I should also mention the Conservative party was recovering in the polling numbers, they were still in 3rd but not completely irrelevant so the Reform party had to acknowledge they could never win an election while splitting the vote with the Conservatives. So comprise had to be made by both parties.

I'm almost certain the UK story will play out the same. Sure it's rough on the 'Tory establishment' as you say. But they were the ones to drive the party into the ground, so some housecleaning is required. The UK Labour party should win at least the next 2 elections while chaos on the right ensues. Maybe even a 3rd if Starmer does a good (or even adequate job) although that might be a stretch. The electorate has a short memory and 4 or 8 years is a long time to remember how much the Conservatives mucked things up, assuming they can get their ducks in a row and are not still infighting with Reform during that whole window.

Of course that UK will have some kind of a big right wing party once all of this is over. However I wouldn't place bets that it will be more or less like the Tories.

 

[Virtual ghost]

G7 leaders to issue strong warning against China trade practices

Europe’s hard right to VDL: We won, let’s unite

Trump haunts stalled global climate talks

Ukraine updates: World leaders head to Swiss peace summit

EU agrees on starting membership talks with Ukraine, Moldova

Cyril Ramaphosa reelected as South African president

Argentina: Senate approves Milei's reform bill amid protests

How high will 'heatflation' take Middle East food prices?

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is basically what we can we expect from the new UK government.

 

[SensEye]

Trump haunts stalled global climate talks

There are a few silver linings to a Trump presidency IMO.

1) Trump is (was) right to call b.s. on China's unfair trade practices.
2) Trump is right to refuse to fall for the great socialist wealth transfer boondoggle masquerading as the fight against climate change.
3) Trump is right on immigration control.

I'm not sure much can be done about getting China to change their ways, but the G7 should really wake up about issues #2 and #3 and basically do the same as Trump would. I'm fairly certain the mishandling by the left on these issues is what is powering much of the right wing surge being seen in many countries.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Paris court overturns expulsion of French conservative party leader


Plot twist again.
At this point it is coming into the question if the party will even be able to stay in one piece. My bet is on "No" after what happened over the last few days.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Nukes spending rises amid growing global tensions — studies

Would Russia really attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons?

Could a US-Saudi nuclear deal spark Middle East arms race?

Russia's military presence in Sudan boosts Africa strategy

Philippine, Chinese ships collide in South China Sea

Australia and China hold talks to mend bilateral ties


I suppose you can take all of this as "the tensions are high".