Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Belarus and Russia to conduct joint nuclear drills

 

[Virtual ghost]

Can Germany's coalition recover after EU vote?

My bet is that they will probably finish the remaining year of the mandate. And then they will have the disaster in elections.
While if they do snap elections they will have disaster right away. Therefore the choice is kinda logical if you are a political figure.

 

[SensEye]

Macron gambles on snap election to fight far-right surge

It seems that snap elections are indeed only for the parliament.

I was puzzled by this but I have a guess at what is going on.

My feeling is that perhaps European countries use EU elections as sort of a trial balloon for national elections. The French seem to be a bit fed up with Macron, so voted for Le Pen candidates in the EU elections, knowing those candidates won't wield all that much influence nationally.

Macron is probably thinking that sending too many of these right wing candidates to the French parliament would be overkill, and French voters will back off and vote for his socialist left candidates to restore balance. He probably wants to do it now, because if the French like what they see from the Le Pen candidates in the EU, he could be in trouble nationally. Otherwise, he should just follow procedure and keep the presidential/parliament elections in sync (I think that is the norm anyways).

If this is what is going on, I hope French voters give Macron a collective f-you, but he seems like a political survivor, so I suspect he will win his gamble. He obviously thinks so.

 

[Red Herring]

I was puzzled by this but I have a guess at what is going on.

My feeling is that perhaps European countries use EU elections as sort of a trial balloon for national elections. The French seem to be a bit fed up with Macron, so voted for Le Pen candidates in the EU elections, knowing those candidates won't wield all that much influence nationally.

Macron is probably thinking that sending too many of these right wing candidates to the French parliament would be overkill, and French voters will back off and vote for his socialist left candidates to restore balance. He probably wants to do it now, because if the French like what they see from the Le Pen candidates in the EU, he could be in trouble nationally. Otherwise, he should just follow procedure and keep the presidential/parliament elections in sync (I think that is the norm anyways).

If this is what is going on, I hope French voters give Macron a collective f-you, but he seems like a political survivor, so I suspect he will win his gamble. He obviously thinks so.

What makes you call Macron and his party socialists? He left the PS 15 years ago and now leads his own party, Renaissance, which is more of a centrist liberal party which its Wiki article descrives as follows:

Although Macron was a member of the PS from 2006 to 2009 and an independent politician from 2009 to 2016,[73][74] La République En Marche! seeks to transcend traditional political boundaries to be a transpartisan organisation.[18]

Various sources have described the party as being centrist,[75] centre-right,[76] or big tent.[77] Macron has described it as being a progressive party of both the left and the right.[78] In 2017, observers and political commentators have described the party as being culturally liberal,[79][80] as well as socially liberal[81][82] and economically liberal in ideology.[83] The party has also been described as using anti-establishment, populist strategies and rhetoric, with discourse comparable to the Third Way as adopted by the Labour Party in the UK during its New Labour phase.[84] The party has been described as supporting some policies close to centre-right classical liberalism.[85][86][87]

According to an Ipsos survey conducted in March 2018, some public perception of the party has moved to the right since March 2017,[88][89][90] with 45% of respondents classifying the party as being centre-right (25%) to right-wing (20%). 21% of respondents place it in the centre, compared to 33% in March 2017.

Macron has liberalized the market economy, cut wellfare spending, lifted the retirement age and reduced goverment interference into businesses as well as workers rights. Not exactly socialist policies. Most people in France would call him a socially liberal freemarket capitalist, I guess.

I am aware that you position yourself to the right of both the forum majority and the European average without being an extremist (thus adding an important perspective!) but if what is centrist to Europe is leftist to you and what is rightwing radical to Europe is merely conservative to you chances are you will have difficulties truely grasping what is going on in Europe at the moment.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I was puzzled by this but I have a guess at what is going on.

My feeling is that perhaps European countries use EU elections as sort of a trial balloon for national elections. The French seem to be a bit fed up with Macron, so voted for Le Pen candidates in the EU elections, knowing those candidates won't wield all that much influence nationally.

Macron is probably thinking that sending too many of these right wing candidates to the French parliament would be overkill, and French voters will back off and vote for his socialist left candidates to restore balance. He probably wants to do it now, because if the French like what they see from the Le Pen candidates in the EU, he could be in trouble nationally. Otherwise, he should just follow procedure and keep the presidential/parliament elections in sync (I think that is the norm anyways).

If this is what is going on, I hope French voters give Macron a collective f-you, but he seems like a political survivor, so I suspect he will win his gamble. He obviously thinks so.

You already got this from Herring but you will get it from me as well.


If Macron is a socialist then we are all socialists in Europe. While in reality in Europe it doesn't get much more pro Business than Macron. However he is fairly liberal in social issues, but that is another pair of shoes.

While on the other hand Le Pen is visibly to the left of Macron when it comes to economics (and that is exactly why she is leading by so much). However she is also visibly more socially conservative, what bothers less and less people as the time is passing. What is because they want economic turn to the left, plus cutting on immigration and opening a few new factories sounds as a pretty good bonus.



Now why Macron made this move ?
The most likely scenarios are these:


1. In Europe when you suffer a strong defeat at one level of governing it not so rare that you organize snap elections on some other level. Since it is obvious that you lost legitimacy. Therefore this needs to be double checked.

2. He knows he can't stop them, so he will give them the parliament in order that people actually taste RN governing. What in his mind would make it much less likely that they take over the presidential seat in 2 years. Which is the part of European council and it has veto powers there.

3. He is pro business incumbent and other parties have probably spent plenty on the EU parliament campaign. Therefore they wouldn't have the money for snap election that is coming in a few weeks. While he as pro Business incumbent can always milk the donors.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France’s far-right forces hold talks on teaming up to beat Macron

If all of this becomes true Macron is completely toast in these elections.



First: one smaller nationalist party will probably join Le Pen in order to add up on her already large numbers. They are also exploring the possibility that they don't run anyone in districts that are clearly for center right (which doesn't like Macron too much either).

While on the other side Communists, Socialists and Greens are thinking about merging their own lists into one large left wing list. After all this is about 30% of the vote. Which when combined can really make a difference in many areas. In EU elections as separate parties they got 27 out of 81 seats that belong to France. The two mentioned Far right parties got 35 of those. While Macron got 13 of those.


In other words Macron has royally screwed himself with this move. Since this all looks as he will lose almost all of his seats. What
is because these two coalitions can beat him easily in both rural and urban areas.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Charles Michel wants to ban Ursula von der Leyen from top job talks

Drama between the two continues.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France’s conservatives and far right explore uniting to beat Macron

The things are indeed complicating fast for Macron. Because if center right jump into the mix with the far right parties that means he is losing beyond any doubt. Even of the left doesn't make it's own wide coalition to challenge Macron (and they will probably do exactly that).

Also the markets are starting to panic since free trade and certain foundations are coming into question with all of this.

Overall it will be very very "interesting" to see where all of this is going.




Macron rules out resigning, ‘whatever the result’ of French election

What means that in practical sense he is probably playing for scenario 2. on my list.

 

[Virtual ghost]

European Parliament Election 2024


Now that the dust has settled a little bit we can go into details, statistics and maps (in the case that someone wants to explore the topic).

 

[Virtual ghost]

5 furious reactions to French conservatives’ talks with far right

 

[Virtual ghost]

Danish PM Frederiksen: I’m not myself after being attacked

 

[ceecee]

I was puzzled by this but I have a guess at what is going on.

My feeling is that perhaps European countries use EU elections as sort of a trial balloon for national elections. The French seem to be a bit fed up with Macron, so voted for Le Pen candidates in the EU elections, knowing those candidates won't wield all that much influence nationally.

Macron is probably thinking that sending too many of these right wing candidates to the French parliament would be overkill, and French voters will back off and vote for his socialist left candidates to restore balance. He probably wants to do it now, because if the French like what they see from the Le Pen candidates in the EU, he could be in trouble nationally. Otherwise, he should just follow procedure and keep the presidential/parliament elections in sync (I think that is the norm anyways).

If this is what is going on, I hope French voters give Macron a collective f-you, but he seems like a political survivor, so I suspect he will win his gamble. He obviously thinks so.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Juncker’s advice to von der Leyen: You don’t need Meloni to keep your job


I am not 100% sure about that Mr. Junker. Out of 720 seats the 3 mainstream blocks have the majority of only 35 to 40 seats (some countries are still counting votes from abroad and similar leftovers). In other words if it is this close that means that she is depending on the various East European autocrats and ex Communists. Which joined the mainstream blocks decades ago when the leadership was willing to overlook certain "problems". You have expelled Orban and Fico out of mainstream but that is hardly the end of that line. As a matter of fact some of these people are far more radical than Meloni, but they are getting little to no media coverage. Some of these people are quite possibly even worse than Orban himself when it comes to maintaining democracy. For example when Hungary scored 72th place in media freedoms index some of these people were in power and their countries scored something like 117th place. Therefore I find it almost funny when West Europens don't know with who they are living in the EU. This is kinda the same nonsense as when they put Pakistan and Saudi Arabia into UN council for preserving human rights.

 

[Virtual ghost]

All of this reminds me of that populist from the East of the continent that named his party "There are such people". Down to this day I am trying to figure out more creepy name for a political party. However I am failing in that endeavor.




(from what I see he got 1 seat in EU parliament)

 

[Virtual ghost]

Some thoughts on the snap elections in France (which will surely have global consequences down the road). Feel free to skip first 4 minutes if you aren't stranger to European politics.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Bid to unite the right against Macron hits the rocks

French far-right alliance talks break down



So far so good for "the gambler".

 

[Virtual ghost]

Germany’s Russia-friendly parties skip Zelenskyy speech

 

[SensEye]

You already got this from Herring but you will get it from me as well.

OK, ok, mea culpa. We do use different terminologies. Socialist = Liberal in my world, so I tend to equate the two. I realize this is not accurate as I think Europeans equate socialist with communism/marxism or at least super left wing parties. It's all too complicated and nuanced for anyone who doesn't live there to really grasp. I do believe the European 'center' sits left of the North American 'center' though.

I'll try and just focus on issues instead. I think I can categorize political positions on issues as left/right fairly accurately for the most part.

The only one that baffles me regarding the EU is that what VG refers to as pro-business politicians (usually a right of center political position) are big fans of open borders. No right of center politicians in North America think that way. And quite frankly, it seems inane to me. If a country wants cheap immigrant labor, it can easily be obtained with 'work visas' or whatever term your country uses. You do not have to allow every fake asylum seeker into the country. It can all be managed legally and sensible right of center policy is to work things this way.

Now why Macron made this move ?
The most likely scenarios are these:


1. In Europe when you suffer a strong defeat at one level of governing it not so rare that you organize snap elections on some other level. Since it is obvious that you lost legitimacy. Therefore this needs to be double checked.

2. He knows he can't stop them, so he will give them the parliament in order that people actually taste RN governing. What in his mind would make it much less likely that they take over the presidential seat in 2 years. Which is the part of European council and it has veto powers there.

3. He is pro business incumbent and other parties have probably spent plenty on the EU parliament campaign. Therefore they wouldn't have the money for snap election that is coming in a few weeks. While he as pro Business incumbent can always milk the donors.

My 2 cents:

1) Nonsense. Macron is a typical self interested power hungry politician. You will not be able to convince me otherwise. No chance he cares about legitimacy. And since he is not putting his own ass on the line, I think that proves it.

2) This could be. I watched that CBC segment you posted, and they at least see things from a Canadian perspective. That bit about running big deficits, then handing over power to the right (who then have to try to reel things in with austerity) is a common tactic of the left. People hate austerity and are too dumb to notice when they are being bribed with their own money when the left is handing out free stuff and running deficits (see: Argentina). So if Le Pen gets power, and implements some degree of austerity to counter Macron's poor fiscal management, it will blow back on her when it should blow back on him. But the electorate has short memories, so it would not surprise me if this is the game Macron is playing. OTOH, if Le Pen can fix the immigration problem, that will be hugely popular. I don't think the European 'center' realizes how unpopular open borders are. If a little austerity is required to preserve one's way of life, people might be able to handle it.

Disclaimer: there is no guarantee a right wing government will practice fiscal restraint either. They also lust for power and realize austerity is not popular, so like the left, they often try to kick the can down the road. My understanding is Italy is acting this way now.

3) See above. Pro business usually means right of center in my mind, but, and it's a big but, businesses don't mind huge deficits. It gives the rubes more money to spend on their products. But eventually, high deficits lead to high taxes and/or recessions. Business don't like that, but those pigeons can take years (sometimes decades) to come home to roost, so yeah, in the short run, I can see business financing Macron.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

2) This could be. I watched that CBC segment you posted, and they at least see things from a Canadian perspective. That bit about running big deficits, then handing over power to the right (who then have to try to reel things in with austerity) is a common tactic of the left. People hate austerity and are too dumb to notice when they are being bribed with their own money when the left is handing out free stuff and running deficits (see: Argentina). So if Le Pen gets power, and implements some degree of austerity to counter Macron's poor fiscal management, it will blow back on her when it should blow back on him. But the electorate has short memories, so it would not surprise me if this is the game Macron is playing. OTOH, if Le Pen can fix the immigration problem, that will be hugely popular. I don't think the European 'center' realizes how unpopular open borders are. If a little austerity is required to preserve one's way of life, people might be able to handle it.

Do you think Americans are smarter for not falling into these pit traps mentioned in the bolded? That conclusion would seem to logically follow.