Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

The last of voting locations are closing in about 30 minutes, so then we should have fairly precise picture of all the details. Since that means that all exit polls will be out.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Belgium shifts right — but not far right

The country had national elections in parallel with continent wide vote.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I watched the election night and in the end It can be said that the mainstream fully held this in the big picture (despite what the polls were saying). As it is now the far right groups gained something like 10 seats in the parliament of 720. Basically irrelevant gain. Plus even if you add the ones that are defined as "independents" the big picture is the same.


Plus it says that Orban had pretty bad nigh by having just 30% of the vote (instead of his standard +50%). What is because his ex ally has turned against him and made his own party that is also around 30% in votes. While the rest belongs to the "traditional opposition". What means that Orban is quite vulnerable and that the country is probably waking up to the fact that he is openly pushing them eastward.


If you like EU this is overall pretty good election night.

 

[Red Herring]

I watched the election night and in the end It can be said that the mainstream fully held this in the big picture (despite what the polls were saying). As it is now the far right groups gained something like 10 seats in the parliament of 720. Basically irrelevant gain. Plus even if you add the ones that are defined as "independents" the big picture is the same.


Plus it says that Orban had pretty bad nigh by having just 30% of the vote (instead of his standard +50%). What is because his ex ally has turned against him and made his own party that is also around 30% in votes. While the rest belongs to the "traditional opposition". What means that Orban is quite vulnerable and that the country is probably waking up to the fact that he is openly pushing them eastward.


If you like EU this is overall pretty good election night.

Well, here in Germany the mood is rather sober :-/

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well, here in Germany the mood is rather sober :-/

Of course that there are still problems to be solved. However next to what this nigh could have been this is evidently something with what we can work with.
I understand that many voters of Greens are unhappy with results and their loses, but we will see another day and that is what matters the most (btw. my greens are quite happy since they entered the parliament for the first time).

 

[Virtual ghost]

From the feed.

Green lead candidate: Of course we are disappointed
Bas Eickhout, speaking for the Greens, didn’t pull any punches about the group’s wipeout – dropping from the fourth to the sixth largest party in the hemicycle.
“Of course we are disappointed by the number of seats we are getting,” Eickhout said.
He added, however, that he was pleased with the Greens’ performance in Denmark and other Nordic countries.
As for whether the Greens will ally themselves with other political groups for a majority, Eickhout says his group will take “a constructive role” and that the EU’s challenges are too big to “play political games.”

What is kinda on the same trail of what I said.
However EU could have ended tonight and that was prevented. For me that is enough of a win for one day.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Well, here in Germany the mood is rather sober :-/

I don't think the Le Pen thing is great either.

 

[Red Herring]

Of course that there are still problems to be solved. However next to what this nigh could have been this is evidently something with what we can work with.
I understand that many voters of Greens are unhappy with results and their loses, but we will see another day and that is what matters the most (btw. my greens are quite happy since they entered the parliament for the first time).

While the severe losses of the Greens in Germany (and elsewhere) bother me because climate protection is extremely important it is the great gains of the far-right in Germany and France that have me even more concerned. In my local media the tone is more one of "holy shit, the AfD is gaining and gaining, especially with young people, and in the East they are clearly the most favored party". Yes, the ID has not taken over completely, but their continuous gains are a sign of serious trouble. As you know in my part of the world pretty much everybody from the far-left to the traditional conservatives is trying to keep a cordon sanitaire around these guys but it is becoming more and more difficult.

As a left-leaning, Green-leaning liberal who grew up under 16 years of Kohl and lived through 16 years of Merkel I am used to not getting my way and I can live with a few more years of CDU. I can't stand Merz and would hope the CDU picks another candidate, but I could probably grudgingly live with him leading a government for a term or so. What has me and the people around me concerned is the threat of the AfD getting into power and undermining the constitution, rolling back civil rights, undermining and rolling back the EU, targeting innocent people and possibly even deporting citizens, possibly even locking up political opponents because they don't like their face (they have repeatedly threatened to do that), reducing the freedom of the press, basically abolishing any attempts at climate protection, severely damaging the educational system and of course making a 180° turn in foreign policy and throwing the country in the arms of Russia, to name but a few concerns.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I don't think the Le Pen thing is great either.

Of course it isn't. However that one is basically entirely on the "dummy" Macron. This was something that was possible to prevent but he completely failed in doing that (just as the polls suggested). Therefore for me there is very little shock in all of this.

Kinda the same happened to the centrists in Slovenia. Therefore now the center right there also requires that the centrists liberals resign and organize snap elections.

I mean this centrist pro business block is the largest loser of these elections. They are the block with largest loses in EU parliament. France is going to snap elections. Their man in Belgium also resigned due to loses of national elections (that were in parallel with EU ones). They lost Netherlands recently in the terms of top job. Plus now Slovenia is also thrown under the question.

 

[Virtual ghost]

While the severe losses of the Greens in Germany (and elsewhere) bother me because climate protection is extremely important it is the great gains of the far-right in Germany and France that have me even more concerned. In my local media the tone is more one of "holy shit, the AfD is gaining and gaining, especially with young people, and in the East they are clearly the most favored party". Yes, the ID has not taken over completely, but their continuous gains are a sign of serious trouble. As you know in my part of the world pretty much everybody from the far-left to the traditional conservatives is trying to keep a cordon sanitaire around these guys but it is becoming more and more difficult.

As a left-leaning, Green-leaning liberal who grew up under 16 years of Kohl and lived through 16 years of Merkel I am used to not getting my way and I can live with a few more years of CDU. I can't stand Merz and would hope the CDU picks another candidate, but I could probably grudgingly live with him leading a government for a term or so. What has me and the people around me concerned is the threat of the AfD getting into power and undermining the constitution, rolling back civil rights, undermining and rolling back the EU, targeting innocent people and possibly even deporting citizens, possibly even locking up political opponents because they don't like their face (they have repeatedly threatened to do that), reducing the freedom of the press, basically abolishing any attempts at climate protection, severely damaging the educational system and of course making a 180° turn in foreign policy and throwing the country in the arms of Russia, to name but a few concerns.

To be honest I agree with those that say that your AfD problem is coming mostly from your street light coalition government. Since ddue to internal struggles and a few dumb positions taken the people should be kinda outraged. What in the end manifests as the growth of extremists. If the streetlight was doing what it is doing in my corner of Europe the AfD would probably be at 50%. So all things considered this is still surprisingly good result for the parties left of center. This is kinda why I am in more positive mood than you are.

Plus for me nationally people that I prefer have won on all parts of the spectrum. In other words everything that was evidently a trash was thrown out last night if we consider wider picture. My version of EPP is probably the most economically left leaning in the entire block. Therefore this is more of a Christian left than the actual center right. Something like the German Grand coalition but squeezed into a single party. Center left also defended all of it's seats. The greens got their first seat as a fresh party. While the new ECR dude seems civilized and was advisor to the center left president some 10 years ago. While the people that were: Lets ban CNN !, The Ukraine wouldn't get a cent from us ! , Lets arrest 30 000 people on political basis, separatists, openly religious nuts ... they were all voted out or didn't the the mandate last nigh. So overall pretty decent results all things considered.

I mean this is basically why I am in more postive mood then you are. Plus the fact that EU will see another day is evidently a big bonus.

 

[Virtual ghost]

From the feed.


Portuguese PM pledges to back Costa for European Council president
Former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa will have the full support of the new government if he decides to run to be European Council president. “If António Costa is a candidate for this position … the Portuguese government will not only support (him) but will do everything to ensure his candidacy is successful,” his successor as PM Luis Montenegro said Sunday, according to Reuters.
Following Sunday’s European elections, the Socialists and Democrats group is on course to take second place in terms of the number of seats in the EU Parliament, making it the likeliest political group to take the Council presidency when top jobs are divided up.
Costa is seen as a heavyweight candidate for the job, alongside Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.


Fight for this seat should be pretty strong this year.

 

[Red Herring]

To be honest I agree with those that say that your AfD problem is coming mostly from your street light coalition government. Since ddue to internal struggles and a few dumb positions taken the people should be kinda outraged. What in the end manifests as the growth of extremists. If the streetlight was doing what it is doing in my corner of Europe the AfD would probably be at 50%. So all things considered this is still surprisingly good result for the parties left of center. This is kinda why I am in more positive mood than you are.

Plus for me nationally people that I prefer have won on all parts of the spectrum. In other words everything that was evidently a trash was thrown out last night if we consider wider picture. My version of EPP is probably the most economically left leaning in the entire block. Therefore this is more of a Christian left than the actual center right. Something like the German Grand coalition but squeezed into a single party. Center left also defended all of it's seats. The greens got their first seat as a fresh party. While the new ECR dude seems civilized and was advisor to the center left president some 10 years ago. While the people that were: Lets ban CNN !, The Ukraine wouldn't get a cent from us ! , Lets arrest 30 000 people on political basis, separatists, openly religious nuts ... they were all voted out or didn't the the mandate last nigh. So overall pretty decent results all things considered.

I mean this is basically why I am in more postive mood then you are. Plus the fact that EU will see another day is evidently a big bonus.

I agree that considering the EU as a whole it could be worse and I am happy for Croatia. All I was saying was that here in Germany locally the evening was rather sober and marked by worries and concerns. Also, the thought of Le Pen winning snap elections in France is just ...

 

[Virtual ghost]

Former Poland PM: Europe’s impossible trinity

The man is evidently a right winger but this is basically pretty good explanation of why EU election results are as they are. There is simply too much of contradictions in the whole mix (and thus the results in the field are fairly weak). You simply can't do everything at once and expect superb results. Since that model almost never works in the end (especially in the hard times).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Also, the thought of Le Pen winning snap elections in France is just ...

As I said a few post back : that one is entirely on Macron personally. However from what I understand the snap elections are only for Parliament. But I can't say that I have seen all the details of what is going on in France.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Macron gambles on snap election to fight far-right surge

It seems that snap elections are indeed only for the parliament.

 

[Virtual ghost]

But one of my local analysts is correct in my opinion. The media are evidently overblowing the far right gains. While in fact the mainstream parties have pretty sizable majority and they still have Greens and some independents as a backup. While MSM are as if the world is ending and EU will be done for by the end of the weak. Far right is a problem but they are blowing the problem out of proportion. In the case there isn't this mess in France we wouldn't have much of talk about once you take a look at the numbers in the big picture.

 

[Red Herring]

Macron gambles on snap election to fight far-right surge

It seems that snap elections are indeed only for the parliament.

Yeah, I meant the RN when I said "Le Pen", using her as a rhetorical stand-in. Sorry about the lack of clarity.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeah, I meant the RN when I said "Le Pen", using her as a rhetorical stand-in. Sorry about the lack of clarity.

For me this is basically the same. The point was that if elections are only for the parliament then she can't become president. What is a major element of the story.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Belgian elections pave way to reform country

Earthquakes in Belgium, since the had national vote in parallel to EU vote.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Who won, who lost and who screwed up in the EU election

Summary of most important takes when it comes to results.