Cold war 2.0

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Actually early 2022. Whenever it was revealed that the U.S intelligence about Russia attacking Ukraine wasn't bullshit.

I stopped reading this book about the causes of WW1 because it got too real for me.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Actually early 2022. Whenever it was revealed that the U.S intelligence about Russia attacking Ukraine wasn't bullshit.

I stopped reading this book about the causes of WW1 because it got too real for me.

Correct, the real start is February of 2022 and start of the war in Ukraine. That was evidently the turning point.
After all it took both WW1 and WW2 a year or two to fully escalate and now we are seeing kinda similar trend.


War in Ukraine, war in Syria, war around Israel, war in Sudan, war in Ethiopia, war in Yemen, war in Myanmar, very high tensions in the far east (especially in south China sea and on Korean peninsula). Hacking on daily basis. Nukes on standby. Experimental missiles hitting the cities. A serious of coups in western Africa. The "incident" in South Korea the other day. Tens of millions are displaced. The fade away of free unregulated trade and escalation of serious trade wars. Paralyzed UN ..... all of that suggests that we can't treat this as just a normal era with increased tensions. The world in the terms of dynamic didn't look that much different during 1942. Just because there was WW2 that didn't mean that most people weren't going to work every day and that their family life stopped. The pop culture didn't imagine to be like this but this can be called WW3, especially if it gets even more hot.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Syria updates: Rebels enter Damascus, claim Assad has fled

Syrian rebels storm into Damascus, claim Assad has fled


This era of Syrian history is evidently over. The only real question is what now.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Syrian Civil War detailed map

Various rebels hold all major cities at this point (capital city included). Therefore it is safe to presume that all those red dots around the country will evaporate over the next week or so. Since the situation doesn't allow stable logistics for what remains of the government.

The only real question is what will be with the two port cities. Since both have strong Russian presence and their infrastructure. Therefore I somehow doubt that they will give up on that, access to Mediterranean is why they are in Syria in the first place. If I have to place bets I would say that this part of the country will become a country for itself. Something like neighboring Lebanon (and of similar size).

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Lark]

I thnk Syria is an example of how they flipped on the Russians an idea they were tyring to work on the rest of the world,

Since 9/11 it looked like the US was risking getting involved in conflict on mutlple fronts, the US managed to avoid it, just narrowly, but Russia got involved in much of the developing world and on its doorstep in Ukraine, more fool them, they were easily over extended and how the humiliation.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Assad has stepped down and fled Syria, Russia says

EU welcomes collapse of Syrian regime as Assad flees

The fast-moving rebel insurgency put two of Russia’s strategic military assets — an airbase in the Latakia province and a naval facility in Tartus on the Mediterranean near the Lebanese border — under serious threat, Reuters reported on Saturday. Satellite imagery showed ships had been leaving the Tartus naval base for several days.

So just maybe they will retreat completely.

 

[Virtual ghost]

South Korea arrests ex-defense minister over martial law

Prosecutors raid properties of key Georgescu backer in Romania election probe

Bracing for a Russian attack: EU defense chief wants €100B for weapons

Yemenis forcefully recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine

Burkina Faso junta names new PM after dismissing government

 

[The Cat]

In a sense the real question is can we admit to ourselves that we have walked right into WW3. Just because it doesn't look or feel as pop culture was imagining it for decades that doesn't mean that we aren't there.

I was reading the origins of War by Donald Kagen for my DM research, a few years back and I noticed a lot of WWI and WWII set up looks a lot like how now looks. All its gonna take is enough people making a mistake at more or less the same time to pop off with no denial possible.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

With WWI, I was struck by how the outdated systems of government in Russia and Germany led to the ascendance of inept, megalomaniacal rulers with dreams of world empires. For instance, Russia had designs on the Ottoman Empire to bolster their claim of being a Third Rome through capturing the second Rome of Constantinople/Istanbul.

To make the whole thing with rules even more nauseatingly precious, they would write letters to each other as "Willy" and "Nicky." Under Bismarck Russia and Germany were allied on the basis of being conservative monarchies, but IIRC Wilhelm II destroyed this alliance through pursuing his imperial ambitions. I'm not remembering the details here, unfortunately.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia grants asylum to exiled Assad, state media reports

Syria updates: Assad in Russia, granted asylum — reports


And this is why I argued that all solutions to the situation start with kicking this guy from the throne. With him and his evident allies the equation is simply too complicated to be solved. Especially since his style of ruling is what made this entire war possible in the first place.


Therefore if the collective west plays the cards well it can get one fairly functional and friendly country at the heart of Middle East. What would for the most part solve the migrant crisis as well. Because the current events are a reset on quite a few ways. In other words this war became new normal that everyone counts into in their plans. However that is no longer the static fact and the problem can now be solved.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Sweden’s Social Democrats struggle in traditional blue-collar heartlands

And this article is basically made by logic that makes sure that the left is in retreat all over Europe.
The economy isn't the core problem, it is the social issues. Making campaigns that are increasingly focused just on women, unquestionable support for multiculturalism, tolerating all kinds of addictions (what harms working ethic and collective medical systems), there is basically complete lack of competence when it comes to military issues (what is top topic these days), overuse of LGBT topics in daily politics, overly dramatic argumentation .... etc.

The left is imploding all over the continent and in a sense this isn't coincidence. If the leadership doesn't wake up to the realities of the world as it is there will be complete implosion, what is evidently under way in many places even as it is. In my part of the continent even the large cities are becoming openly competitive. What shouldn't be the case towards conventional wisdom. Also at this point it is basically a certainty that center right will take the helm in Germany (that is the main engine of the whole continent). What is likely to cripple the European left even further in the big picture. Out of 27 EU member states only four of them have head of state that is part of center left block. Even if you add liberal centrists the number goes only to 8 (and that number is likely to fall even further as things stand, starting with Germany). I mean I am saying all this just to show how drastic situation in Europe really is. These are tectonic shifts for which it is questionable if they will go away.


UK polling average

This is also good example. Labor in UK won very convincingly on the basis of people's frustrations. However just a few months later there is implosion in polling average. In the last poll even the hard right is beating them and Conservatives are already over them.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Romanian police foil armed mercenaries in Jan. 6 style plot

 

[Virtual ghost]

South Korea bans President Yoon Suk Yeol from foreign travel

Australia seeks to block China with Nauru security deal

 

[Virtual ghost]

Syria updates: Germany halts asylum proceedings for Syrians

That didn't take long (and some EU countries are following).

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Germany’s Merz wants ‘common’ European plan for peace in Ukraine as Trump looms

Austria prepares to deport Syrian migrants after Assad regime falls

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Syria updates: Rebels begin shaping new government