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Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Moldova’s pro-EU president on course for re-election
According to figures published by Moldova’s Central Election Commission, pro-Western former World Bank economist Sandu looks almost certain be reelected with around 51.7 percent of the vote in the second round, putting her ahead of rival Alexandr Stoianoglo, who drew around 48.3 percent. Some 95 percent of votes have been counted, according to the official results website.

This is going to be quite tight.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Messages
22,129

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Red Herring

middle-class woman of a certain age
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Scholz signals willingness to move up German snap election amid mounting pressure

Germany's coalition collapse: Merz's CDU ready to take power


In parallel to elections in US left+centrist coalition in Germany fall apart. What means that the Conservatives are taking over the helm a year earlier than expected. The polls are very clear about who is on top.
The bolded part is a little exaggerated. General elections were regularly scheduled for September 28th 2025. Scholz said he'll hold a vote of (no-)confidence in January. According to the constitution if the federal president then decides to dissolve parliament new elections will then have to be held within 60 days. So we are talking about moving elections from September to March.


The quicker this happens the better for Merz (who says he wants to get started before Trump's inauguration) and vice versa. But while Scholz had replied that he'd be willing to "calmly discuss" the timeline and possibly move the vote of confidence forward (he is now a lame duck in a minority government, so much depends on what he still wants to get done if the CDU realizes its threat of voting against everything until the vote of confidence is being held) the Bundeswahlleiterin (the person in charge of organizing and implementing general elections) has adviced him not to do that because due to the holidays and Germany basically being closed for business for two weeks between Christmas Eve and early January the already ambitious 60 days would de facto be cut short significantly as far as planning and organizing goes. People would have less time to gather signatures and mistakes are more likely to happen which would undermine trust in the process. But even if the vote of confidence were being held on monday, the president called for new elections on tuesday and elections were then being held on January 12th (the earliest date that is mathematically possible right now), the result was official on January 13th and coalition negotiations (which can take months and usually follow a previous round of pre-negotiations but should be a bit easier this time) only took a day and the new parliament were then to be inaugurated the day after that (the constitution gives parliament 30 days) and the new parliament immediately decided on the new chancelor instead of the old one temporarily minding the shop while negotiations continue as is the custom.....even if all the necessary steps were happening within 24 hours of each other rather than weeks or months....the CDU still wouln't be taking over a year earlier but rather 8 months before the regular election date.

Looks like we'll have elections in February or March. Negotiations being fast and a new government being formed within a month is realistic, so let's say March or April. April sounds more likely to me (five months before the original election date).
 
Last edited:

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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The bolded part is a little exaggerated. General elections were regularly scheduled for September 28th 2025. Scholz said he'll hold a vote of (no-)confidence in January. According to the constitution if the federal president then decides to dissolve parliament new elections will then have to be held within 60 days. So we are talking about moving elections from September to March.


The quicker this happens the better for Merz (who says he wants to get started before Trump's inauguration) and vice versa. But while Scholz had replied that he'd be willing to "calmly discuss" the timeline and possibly move the vote of confidence forward (he is now a lame duck in a minority government, so much depends on what he still wants to get done if the CDU realizes its threat of voting against everything until the vote of confidence is being held) the Bundeswahlleiterin (the person in charge of organizing and implementing general elections) has adviced him not to do that because due to the holidays and Germany basically being closed for business for two weeks between Christmas Eve and early January the already ambitious 60 days would de facto be cut short significantly as far as planning and organizing goes. People would have less time to gather signatures and mistakes are more likely to happen which would undermine trust in the process. But even if the vote of confidence were being held on monday, the president called for new elections on tuesday and elections were then being held on January 12th (the earliest date that is mathematically possible right now), the result was official on January 13th and coalition negotiations (which can take months and usually follow a previous round of pre-negotiations but should be a bit easier this time) only took a day and the new parliament were then to be inaugurated the day after that (the constitution gives parliament 30 days) and the new parliament immediately decided on the new chancelor instead of the old one temporarily minding the shop while negotiations continue as is the custom.....even if all the necessary steps were happening within 24 hours of each other rather than weeks or months....the CDU still wouln't be taking over a year earlier but rather 8 months before the regular election date.

Looks like we'll have elections in February or March. Negotiations being fast and a new government being formed within a month is realistic, so let's say March or April. April sounds more likely to me (five months before the original election date).


Ok, but I used different logic. Which is that the coalition is gone and now SPD and CDU already have to arrange some things together. What is about 10 months more early than it should be. I mean CDU+SPD evidently looks as the most probable combination of next government.

But that wasn't the main point, the point was "snap elections in Germany". In other words: there are preparations for the new era that is knocking on the door. The idea that someone wants to get this over with as quickly as possible makes that obvious. Especially if they are mentioning "the inauguration'.
 

Virtual ghost

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But that wasn't the main point, the point was "snap elections in Germany". In other words: there are preparations for the new era that is knocking on the door. The idea that someone wants to get this over with as quickly as possible makes that obvious. Especially if they are mentioning "the inauguration'.

I am pretty sure that no one really remembers my post from something like 6 months ago. In other words at what I was aiming with my first post on the topic was that it is starting to happen that EU council will go completely to the right with snap elections in Germany.


European Council


The second picture is the key one. The size of a pie piece represents the population size of each members state, while the colors represent political orientation of the head of state. Red is labor, yellow are pro business centrist liberals, light blue is center right, dark blue are hard right national conservatives, while everything else are basically populists, extremists or perhaps independents.



So lets use some imagination and data on the issue. Germany is that huge chunk and if that chunk moves from red to light blue the red is basically completely crippled. Especially since the only thing they really have left is Spain. While in Spain labor government is barely holding and it is completely dependent on Catalan separatists. Which can walk away at anytime and on almost any topic. What leaves Denmark and Malta. Which isn't really visible if you aren't looking carefully, it is between Denmark and Poland.

On the other hand centrist liberals are also in problems. France is also a pretty big chunk and it is more and more contested by various right wingers (this thread has various posts about that). Also Belgium is currently negotiating coalition government that should push it from yellow to dark blue. What leaves Estonia and Slovenia that are barely visible (and even there things don't seem too bright on the long run for the centrists). Especially since they are dropping in ability to flip anything (kinda the same goes for labor).




The point: The labor and liberals basically correlate to Democratic party, while everything else correlates to Republican party. So with that in mind it can be observed how much further EU is going to the right than US. Because the council is basically what defines EU politics. European Commission is perhaps somewhat influential on paper but it tends to mirror the structure of the council. In US terms all of this would be kinda like Republicans with 42 governors and about 85 senators (on top of presidency). This is just so that you get better sense of what is actually a landslide.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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The storm clouds gather over all lands....

I made that purely for the sake of perspective. Just so that you understand that your situation isn't nearly as dramatic as you think it is.
But to be honest I often used word "kinda" in that post for a reason. Which is that both side of the Atlantic have somewhat different definitions of left and right. So my parallel is kinda misleading. However this is how actual landslide in the cards looks like.
 

The Cat

The Cat in the Tinfoil Hat..
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The storm clouds gather over all lands....
Nothing new, same clouds as always, you can just see them better because you're looking for them now.
Don't panic.
Don't give in to despair.
Don't be overcome with fear.
What rises must fall.
What has fallen may rise again.
Just stay groovy.​
 
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