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Cold war 2.0

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Regarding flooding, I've read other articles suggesting at least some of the hostages were down there, according to the hostages themselves.

Observation: I'd wager any hope (if there ever was any) of a lasting peace in the Middle East died with 9/11. I'm not trying to justify anything with that statement. I'm merely saying that this created a climate where the U.S. wasn't interested in peace, which included this conflict as well. It was a "clash of civilizations" after all.
 

Virtual ghost

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Regarding flooding, I've read other articles suggesting at least some of the hostages were down there, according to the hostages themselves.

Observation: I'd wager any hope (if there ever was any) of a lasting peace in the Middle East died with 9/11. I'm not trying to justify anything with that statement. I'm merely saying that this created a climate where the U.S. wasn't interested in peace, which included this conflict as well. It was a "clash of civilizations" after all.


When you consider how much the place is being bombed it is kinda safe to assume that hostages aren't really that much of a priority. So that probably doesn't really matter all that much as a argument or concern.


I mean the problem is that Middle east as a whole is sitting on the huge quantity of energy. What means that the rest of the world will always play some kind of a game there in order to grab bigger share. Therefore this is much much wider story that what the US thinks about the topic.
 
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When you consider how much the place is being bombed it is kinda safe to assume that hostages aren't really that much of a priority. So that probably doesn't really matter all that much as a argument or concern.


I mean the problem is that Middle east as a whole is sitting on the huge quantity of energy. What means that the rest of the world will always play some kind of a game there in order to grab bigger share. Therefore this is much much wider story that what the US thinks about the topic.
Undoubtedly so.
 
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Someone should write a book about this but replace oil with some kind of fictional substance that allows you to trip balls in a way that is extremely useful. We could call the book Sand.
 

Virtual ghost

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Undoubtedly so.


Yes, but you also have to look at the bigger picture. I am from a country with only a few million people that most can't find on the map, but even I have some squads in the middle east (and who knows what they have done there over the years, despite the mission(s) of peacekeeping). My national oil company also had various deals there and even some oil rigs). My government even sent and smuggled some Soviet made guns for the opposition in Syria (since locals know how to use those) ..... etc. Therefore what I am trying to say is that this is indeed much more complicated than "just blame the US". Since EVERYONE is trying to get their chunk of that energy buried in the Middle East. However media in US are so US focused that they have to make the picture of the world where US is making all major moves by itself. And it never gets sanctioned or ignored by other countries.

While the world is actually much more dynamic than a person would conclude from US media.
 

Red Herring

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Since immigration has recently come up again ...

(@Virtual ghost This also addresses (and refutes) a point you made)

 

Virtual ghost

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Since immigration has recently come up again ...

(@Virtual ghost This also addresses (and refutes) a point you made)



I watched the whole video out of curiosity.
First I don't know what was exactly my point since I made a number of them on the topic recently.

On the other hand every time I see a video like this I come to conclusion that EU is doomed. The east and west aren't compatible and that is it. We can't sort out our differences even as it is and many want to add even more diversity into the mix. So that there is no way we can find any common language at all. While this entire story about how the economy is going is kinda irrelevant in my book. I am warzone child and no one will manage to convince me that my living standard will drop below that level if the place isn't filled with people from various cultures. It probably wouldn't come even close to that without a single immigrant. So I am not really the person that has the ability to understand such arguments. We have 450 million people in the union and the US has to be saving Ukraine since we are for the most part completely incompetent to do that. While if US decides to give up on Ukraine since they have better things to do on their own border we will act as spoiled princess. As a matter of fact this video has exactly that felling. It is all just talk and it isn't even certain that this is about facts. In the studies Hillary should have won but that evidently didn't happen. Life doesn't work like this when things get tough or complicated.

So to be completely clear: you will not change my mind on this. For me mass immigration is certain introduction into the culture of corporatism and cheap political correctness, which I find to be weak. Since all of it in the end comes down to looking pretty and talking pretty. What are useless traits againt people like Putin and concete problems in general.
 

SensEye

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. We have 450 million people in the union and the US has to be saving Ukraine since we are for the most part completely incompetent to do that. While if US decides to give up on Ukraine since they have better things to do on their own border we will act as spoiled princess.
Amen to that. The world really needs a strong democratic nation to lead it. As the US seems to have abdicated this role since Trump there is no one to fill the void. The EU would be the only potential candidate, but internal bickering seems to rule them out. You don't want China doing it.

I see Venezuela is looking to hive off a chuck of Guyana (probably assuming the US is bogged down in their own bicker fest). Guyana is going to the UN. LOL. Fat chance those incompetents will doing anything except pass a resolution and then stand by and watch while Venezuela sends in the troops.

Maybe since this is about oil, the US will perk up. Or Guyana can just wave Essequibo good by.
 

Virtual ghost

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Amen to that. The world really needs a strong democratic nation to lead it. As the US seems to have abdicated this role since Trump there is no one to fill the void. The EU would be the only potential candidate, but internal bickering seems to rule them out. You don't want China doing it.

I see Venezuela is looking to hive off a chuck of Guyana (probably assuming the US is bogged down in their own bicker fest). Guyana is going to the UN. LOL. Fat chance those incompetents will doing anything except pass a resolution and then stand by and watch while Venezuela sends in the troops.

Maybe since this is about oil, the US will perk up. Or Guyana can just wave Essequibo good by.

Yes, but there is one trick in all this. EU isn't a country but alliance. Therefore if some country doesn't want to cooperate others can still gather as individual countries and start doing what needs to be done. We can all cooperate in ways that don't go directly through EU as institution. This is exactly why the things haven't fallen apart over time. Plus there is a fact that the block is showing the dirty laundry too much in public. In other words most agree in most of the topics, however various details are being debated pretty publicly. So it seem that drama is bigger than it actually is. What is especially fueled by the fact that on 27 countries you always have some kind of elections somewhere.
 

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Yes, but there is one trick in all this. EU isn't a country but alliance. Therefore if some country doesn't want to cooperate others can still gather as individual countries and start doing what needs to be done.
True, but I have seen no evidence of any country "doing what needs to be done" outside of the US. See the Ukraine situation. This is right in the EU's back yard and no countries seem willing to go the extra mile if the US stops support. Emphasis on doing vs talking. I've seen political commentators say Brazil may intervene for Guyana but I doubt it. Nobody is usually willing to foot the bill.

I'll just make a prediction: if the US does not intervene in this squabble, Venezuela will do as they please. I'll be happy to eat crow if I am wrong.
 

Red Herring

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I watched the whole video out of curiosity.
First I don't know what was exactly my point since I made a number of them on the topic recently.

On the other hand every time I see a video like this I come to conclusion that EU is doomed. The east and west aren't compatible and that is it. We can't sort out our differences even as it is and many want to add even more diversity into the mix. So that there is no way we can find any common language at all. While this entire story about how the economy is going is kinda irrelevant in my book. I am warzone child and no one will manage to convince me that my living standard will drop below that level if the place isn't filled with people from various cultures. It probably wouldn't come even close to that without a single immigrant. So I am not really the person that has the ability to understand such arguments. We have 450 million people in the union and the US has to be saving Ukraine since we are for the most part completely incompetent to do that. While if US decides to give up on Ukraine since they have better things to do on their own border we will act as spoiled princess. As a matter of fact this video has exactly that felling. It is all just talk and it isn't even certain that this is about facts. In the studies Hillary should have won but that evidently didn't happen. Life doesn't work like this when things get tough or complicated.

So to be completely clear: you will not change my mind on this. For me mass immigration is certain introduction into the culture of corporatism and cheap political correctness, which I find to be weak. Since all of it in the end comes down to looking pretty and talking pretty. What are useless traits againt people like Putin and concete problems in general.
You claimed that immigration lowered wages and was promoted by business leaders to lower labor costs. The video mentions how many studies have shown that that's not true.

It is perfectly legitimate to say that this is more about culture and identity than about facts and numbers, but:

a) "I've been through war, I'm not afraid of hardship" should not be the standard applied to what is or isn't politically desirable. By that logic anything short of an atomic bomb being dropped in Europe is okay. I have somewhat higher expectations for material wellbeing and so have most Europeans.
b) Immigration is an issue that goes beyond easily measurable factors, but to say that demoscopes were wrong in their prognosis of the US election result and therefor you distrust studies that simply summarize and analyse past events and don't care about facts and numbers and scientific studies is ... surprising. It also doesn't fit your usual rational, science-based take on most things.
 

Red Herring

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True, but I have seen no evidence of any country "doing what needs to be done" outside of the US. See the Ukraine situation. This is right in the EU's back yard and no countries seem willing to go the extra mile if the US stops support. Emphasis on doing vs talking. I've seen political commentators say Brazil may intervene for Guyana but I doubt it. Nobody is usually willing to foot the bill.

I'll just make a prediction: if the US does not intervene in this squabble, Venezuela will do as they please. I'll be happy to eat crow if I am wrong.
EU countries have not only taken up enormous numbers of Ukrainian refugees and sent logistical help. They have also sent arms and equipment and money in the billions. Eastern Europe has taken up a disproportionate share of the burden as they know better than anyone else how serious this is and what it is like to have Russia sable-rattling in front of your doorsteps. And of course the EU institutions have invested more money in this than the US.

Here's a tracker:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
 

Virtual ghost

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You claimed that immigration lowered wages and was promoted by business leaders to lower labor costs. The video mentions how many studies have shown that that's not true.

It is perfectly legitimate to say that this is more about culture and identity than about facts and numbers, but:

a) "I've been through war, I'm not afraid of hardship" should not be the standard applied to what is or isn't politically desirable. By that logic anything short of an atomic bomb being dropped in Europe is okay. I have somewhat higher expectations for material wellbeing and so have most Europeans.
b) Immigration is an issue that goes beyond easily measurable factors, but to say that demoscopes were wrong in their prognosis of the US election result and therefor you distrust studies that simply summarize and analyse past events and don't care about facts and numbers and scientific studies is ... surprising. It also doesn't fit your usual rational, science-based take on most things.

My logic is combination of logic and empirical evidence. So the guy that just says for the 30 minutes "the studies shows" isn't that much of an argument. I didn't develop my level of intellect simply by taking whatever is offered to me. This isn't how a genuine intellectualism should work.


Therefore I will give you my take on all this and why I think that the studies present the wrong picture. Number one reason is because you are looking it strictly from the German perspective and not everyone in EU has such cards. My own workers are complaining online that as we are become immigrant country for the first time recently that they have various extra difficulties. Since current ability to import any amount of workers is simply too much of a tilt in the labor market. The problem is that more developed EU countries can offer much higher wages than the poorer ones. Therefore since we are all in the single market people can just leave and move to the more developed EU country. However here we are hitting the problem that wasn't mentioned in the video, if we allow free movement of people what are the looses for the country of origin. In other words if people can just leave then what is really the point of organizing free college for them ? If you can always import more 3rd worlders what is really the point of having quality socialized healthcare. After all with which doctors you will even organize such a system since half of them moved to Germany or some similar EU member (since they pays much more). However most of west European scholars are just too lazy or shortsighted to go into this direction. Or they simply don't mind the whole process.


What is extra problematic is that my local importers of workers seem to be people of questionable morals. They bring in workers that have to pay them a fee for all of that every month. Not to mention that most of these people then live with 500 Euros a month and they put them into some kinds of barracks in the outskirts. What means that they can work for less than local worker and through that they nudge the whole market. The fact that most of the importing is done by foreign corporations is also a red flag. Since locals are loosing their own local market to what is borerline unfair practice. If you remember at the start of COVID we had a chat about those meat packing plants in Germany that became large spreaders of COVID. And this is basically it, poor working conditions that are bordering on slavery. So if immigrants are working in borderline slalvery it wouldn't be long before locals have to do it as well. Especially as the number of imigrants are growing.

Therefore I have the guts to say this is all nonsense based on pure greed.
Plus things are getting even worse. As my workers are going to Germany or some other place like that we are loosing our ability to reproduce. Demography is bad as it is but this will evidently spill the glass completely. What means that we will need to import plenty of 3rd world workers for all kinds of positions. However once you do that you are evidently going into the so called "population replacement". Thus far the process is in the early stages but in a few decades the place could be unrecognizable. And then all the media are going "OMG, far right this, far right that". What is simply because far right are the only ones that have the intention of challenge this circus. What are their motives is another thing but increasing amount of people will take this pill, just about everything suggests that. What is exactly why I said that the only thing that mass immigration will do is put far right at the helm. What basically means the end of EU in it's current form. What begs the question is this really worth it.


Regarding the war, yes the example is extreme but in my view it is vald. Since this cleary shows how passive has become the logic of western Europe. As soons as there is a problem you have to call someone else to fix it. Plus if some coporations have less of a profit ... oh the horror. I used this argument exactly since we are now basically in open war with Russia, but everyone just walks in circless and hopes that US will fix it. You just can't expect that every time someone else will do the real work for you. I mean you can but the odds are that you will eventually evaporate. What will be if the polls are correct and Trump is reelected and after that he cuts help for Ukraine and allows Putin to march over Ukraine into eastern parts of EU ? Plus if Le Pen wins the French nukes are probably also off the table (she has a shoot). What means that the Putin can basically just march into Berlin. Also can you really guarantte that the Turks in Germany will not help him in such a scenario? (especially if we consider various recent event) You simply can't always take the easier route and hope that things will get solved through transactions and talk. However mass immigration was made to do just that, as long as money rotates we should just say that everything is fine. But this isn't how the world works. Things are much more complicated than "money and best wishes".


This is why I don't buy into "official data" you are offering me.
 

Virtual ghost

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Btw help of EU to Ukraine is pretty big in the terms of money, resources and humanitarian aid. However most numbers sugest that military help isn't that big. What is vital segent since without that you can't advance. Absorbing the damage is imporrtant but eventually you have to push forward. While this is where EU logic is lacking if we consider the potantial. Killing people for what they believe isn't a EU thing, however this is exactly the name of the game in Ukraine.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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With regards to Hamas/Gaza and Israel, I think neither can survive while the other lives.

By which I mean, even if Israel destroys Hamas to the extent possible you can't tell me that Hamas 2 wont spring up immediately and go back to lobbing rockets as Sderot et al.

By the same token you can't tell me that there is any solution to the problem that doesn't involve Israel ruling over Gaza in a way that doesn't foster the creation of Hamas 2. This is especially true in the wake of Oct 7 and the inevitably stricter rule of Gaza Israel will impose after the cessation of major hostilities.

There are only a couple of solutions that would end the problem.

Israel killing all the Palestinians. (militarily if not politically possible)

Palestinians killing all the Israelis. (not militarily possible, but you can't tell me the arab world wouldn't be on board politically)

Israel killing Hamas, then forcing the rest into the Sinai so that it's Egypt's problem. Egypt wont take them, but if Israel could pull this off Egypt would be on the hook for future attacks against Israel and as such would have the incentive to put a stop to it.

Israel killing Hamas, then forcing the rest to immigrate to to the west. If this had happened years ago I would be much more worried about this but hopefully the wests growing awareness of the dangers of immigration prevents it.

None of these will happen in all likelihood.

Some peoples just can't cohabitate regardless of the solutions proposed and the only real solution lies in blood and lots of it.

For my part I don't care enough to send money and certainly not troops. Outside of that I care in that I side with Israel insofar as the Hamas attack was hideous and grotesque. And of the two parties they've clearly done more to make living with the Palestinians work than the other way around.

But as with other international local disputes that draw us in, I'm just tired of it all. I would like nothing better than to tell both sides y'all have fun figure it the fuck out.

This is only going to keep happening more and more as international order falls apart. Guyana and Venezuela being the newest example.

The west thought they could freeze all national borders in amber decades ago, and they've been remarkably stable for at time, but we are resorting to the historical mean and the maps will be changing again.
 
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