Cold war 2.0

[DiscoBiscuit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720758185408008356

 

[Virtual ghost]

Around the world, the left is tearing itself apart over Israel

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720758185408008356

This is basically simplistic worldview for those that want to hear this kind of a talking point.

Therefore lets go one by one.


1. This war happened because Russia ambitiously rolled all of it's military might into a country of 43 million people. Which decided to resist by any means possible because otherwise they would cease to be a country and they will probably be culturally assimilated.



2. It is almost funny how no one thinks how much Russia got crippled by this. Losing access to global markets so that they have to smuggle stuff around. They lost most of it's modern military equipment and they wouldn't replenish that anytime soon. They lost huge European market for their energy and they can't cover that hole since others don't have the same purchasing power. Not to mention that the infrastructure for switching customers isn't there. They also lost the Baltic sea to the west since Sweden and Finland are joining NATO. Plus it seem they are also losing Moldova and Armenia in real time. As a matter of fact the EU is more united than ever since all of this is a slap that was evidently needed for people to wake up. There is still some Russian influence in the mix but that is being cleared out in systematic manner.



3. Also about which decline of European economy are we talking about ? I will have about 2.5% growth this year, while inflation made by energy shock is melting. What is in decline is Germany which made some really stupid decisions, like closing it's last nuclear power plants in the middle of the war with it's main energy supplier. You really have to be extra smart to do that. But that isn't Russia's fault. Plus I have to say that all of my local assets controlled by Russia where frozen and they got nationalized, what is a huge deal because in one move we are getting rid of Russian influence through economy. What is basically the real end of Communist era and my local comrades in Central Europe are in panic mode over that. They are even cursing at US for crashing their world (the local comments are full of that). What is because everything that is Russia related is drying up, and the process is almost over.



4. While the whole "decline of the west" thing is mostly because it refuses to clean up it's own house and Russia has little to do with that. Plus since the whole western public is pushing this "decoupling from China" narrative it can be said that all of this is the consequences. The supply chains have to be remade down to the last detail and that will surely rise costs and inflation. Since replacing China is a serious challenge that is anything but cheap.



I am simply tired of the talking points that the west is losing in Ukraine and it has to give up. What should have been 10 day take over has turned into a complete holding of Russia. Since after 600+ days of war Russia has only about 17% of the country (and half of that they got before the big push last year).


Note to self: You should really search for a job in some neo-con think thank. They would pay you well for this.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Regarding my last piece on Ukraine. That was written simply because in US there is this complete lack of understanding how multi dimensional that conflict really is. While in reality it is even more complicated than that. Neither there us awareness that US isn't the only one who is spending tens of billions there. I am in general allergic to cheap gathering of political points and that works for Ukraine as well. In other words even if you are going into negotiations you should go there in strength since Russia has evidently weaker cards. They traded trade partners, living standard, huge amount of people, plenty of military equipment, international influence, access to tech ....... for about 10% of Ukraine. In my book that just isn't worth it andd that is why collective west must not be humble about anything. Since they caused a debacle for Russia.


However since all wars come to an end sooner or latter this is how it is going to be here as well. The truth is that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to return all of it's parts back but that doesn't mean that this is where things should stop. For example with regions that are under Russia for 10 years now it is perhaps better that they go to Russia. People there are Russian speaking and after so many years there probably isn't that much opposition to that. After all for Ukraine itself it is perhaps better that those regions go away, since in that case it will be much easier to bring Ukraine fully into western world.

But before the end of the war it should be good that a few more chunks of Ukraine are recovered.

1. The most important one is the land bridge between Kherson and Mariupol. That piece has large strategic importance, it produces plenty if food, it has long coast line, there is that nuclear plant with 6 reactors ... etc.

2. The wider metropolitan area of Sieverodonetsk, something like a million people used to live there, there are some mines around and there is also large oil refinery just outside the city. Therefore since Ukraine is in the outer suburbs of the metropolitan area it would be good that this chunk can be recovered before the end.

3. Bakhmut, it has large sentimental value. But in larger region around it is has certain mines and power plants. Plus Ukraine is already just next door and the place isn't super fortified.


Therefore in my opinion those 3 parts should be to recovered first and then you can go into negotiations. Which will probably just freeze the existing front lines as the future border. When it comes to pushing forward Ukraine has said that it stopped regarding that. Since US support is uncertain and there is certain turbulence in the EU regarding the topic. So if they push forward and get stuck they can't really go back and they will probably lose plenty of ground if they aren't supplied. So for now it is better to play defense and hope that it is enough. After all now almost all focus is on the midde east and Ukraine realizes that it is basically on hold untill further notice. This is why there is no pushing lately. However it would really be good that those few parts of the Ukraine are recovered before the lines are frozen and the war is over.

 

[SensEye]

I think there is still a good chance for Ukraine to recover it's lost territory (maybe not Crimea) as long as the Republicans don't win in 2024. It's clear the Russian-Ukraine conflict won't end before then at this point. The Israel conflict should be over long before then, and if the Dems can hang on to power, I think they will get back to supporting Ukraine. And Russia should grow weary by then, especially if there is no Trump to help out Putin by abandoning Ukraine.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I think there is still a good chance for Ukraine to recover it's lost territory (maybe not Crimea) as long as the Republicans don't win in 2024. It's clear the Russian-Ukraine conflict won't end before then at this point. The Israel conflict should be over long before then, and if the Dems can hang on to power, I think they will get back to supporting Ukraine. And Russia should grow weary by then, especially if there is no Trump to help out Putin by abandoning Ukraine.

Some parts can be be much more easy to recover, while Crimea is a medium zone in that regard. In other words once you put the troops at the northern entrance of the peninsula and hit the bridge that leads to Russia that is pretty much it. You have completely cut out the whole place and then you can siege it. What means that it will fall eventually.


However what is going to be hard are the the very eastern edges of the Ukraine that are directly in contact with mainland Russia. Also there local population favors Russia and they are already under Russia for over 10 years. Just metropolitan area of the Donetsk city has something like 3 million people. While the whole region is full of industrial cities and mines. Since this used to be a industrial heartland of the ex USSR. Therefore if you go into all that Russia will almost surely use the nukes on the Ukraine. Because in that case their loss is complete in the terms of war, geopolitics and economy. Therefore going all the way probably isn't smart, however a few more chunks of strategic value can be liberated before the war ends (I already named those). Long time ago I said that Ukraine is on limited time due to election year in US and EU and it seems that this will play a part. However it is vital that the west presents all of this as victory because over the last year and the half Russia got just 10% of Ukraine. What is evident debacle even if we ignore all of the troop losses, geopolitical damage, economic damage ... etc. In other words if you won you can request more in the final deal. What is why I am annoyed with all those that say that the west should just pull out of Ukraine and basically apologize.



Btw here is the map of the current situation in detail.
Explanation of the symbols is below the map.


Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map

 

[Virtual ghost]

Portugal in political crisis after PM António Costa resigns

One of the last left wing administrations in EU has crumbled under quickly expanding corruption scandal.
With this on top of everything center right will almost for sure come on top in the next federal elections. The gap is simply getting too big.



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[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

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[Virtual ghost]

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[Virtual ghost]

This is going almost completely under the radar of the western public but for the last 2.5 years there is pretty bloody civil war in Myanmar. Which is in south east Asia and it is a country about the size of Ukraine or Turkey. The story is that Myanmar military has organized a coup and removed democratically elected government. Therefore resistance was formed between the remains of the democratic government and various tribes (which lost many of their rights and freedoms in the coup). So what is the story here is that after years of fighting the military junta is starting to fall apart and lose territory. What is especially interesting because the junta has blessings of neighboring China. Which has substantial economic and mining interests in the Myanmar. However as the junta is starting to fall apart in the field all of this is starting to look as another geopolitical hot spot. This is what it was all the time but now it seems that it can no longer be kept under the radar, since situation is no longer status quo. The neighboring India is afraid of refugee crisis.

 

[Virtual ghost]

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[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Note to self: You should really search for a job in some neo-con think thank. They would pay you well for this.

I don't think you're crazy enough for those people. You belong to this:

Reality-based community

I've read some discussions of the neo-cons as being disillusioned Trotskyists who I guess gave that up and wanted to spread a world revolution of American liberty and capitalism instead. Usually that appeared to apply to some fairly obscure figures and none of the big names, though.

 

[Virtual ghost]

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[The Cat]

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
It is the American Way.
And the entire big picture, face palms.​

 

[Virtual ghost]