Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Strategic analysis that goes into details.

 

[Red Herring]

How Elon Musk made eastern Germany great again

There is something important the article only mentions in one single sentence in the very last paragraph but that is important to many Germans: Tesla is reportedly violating both labor and environmental standards. And their accident rate is much higher than that of comparable German companies (calculated per person, the number of times they had to call an ambulance or medical helicopter is 3x that of Audi) which suggests they just don't give a damn. One employee's foot slipped into hot aluminum when the ground under his feet suddenly gave way. Another one had a 50 kg box dropped on this head from several meters up. There are reports of amputated limbs and injuries through burns and hydrochloric acid. These are just the reported incidents. According to the metal workers union at times 40% of all employees are sick or injured and management just puts more pressure on the remaining workers to do the additional workload. It all sounds a bit Victorian.

The water issue is also relevant because Brandenburg is increasingly a draught area highly impacted by climate change. The gigafactory is located at a protected water conservation site and yet there have been more than two dozend environmental incidents in the 18 months since opening the factory including the spilling of 15,000 liters of varnish, 13 tons of aluminum and several hundred liters of Diesel.

They seem to think that you can just make these things go away by increasing salaries a bit. The region might need Tesla as an investor because of jobs and tax income but they now have a nationwide reputation as a bad employer and an irresponsible company.

Looking at Musk's threat to withdraw X/Twitter from Europe over the new Digital Services Act and the way he has treated Twitter employees after taking over it all fits a pattern of disdain for both European standards and his own employees.

 

[Virtual ghost]

There is something important the article only mentions in one single sentence in the very last paragraph but that is important to many Germans: Tesla is reportedly violating both labor and environmental standards. And their accident rate is much higher than that of comparable German companies (calculated per person, the number of times they had to call an ambulance or medical helicopter is 3x that of Audi) which suggests they just don't give a damn. One employee's foot slipped into hot aluminum when the ground under his feet suddenly gave way. Another one had a 50 kg box dropped on this head from several meters up. There are reports of amputated limbs and injuries through burns and hydrochloric acid. These are just the reported incidents. According to the metal workers union at times 40% of all employees are sick or injured and management just puts more pressure on the remaining workers to do the additional workload. It all sounds a bit Victorian.

The water issue is also relevant because Brandenburg is increasingly a draught area highly impacted by climate change. The gigafactory is located at a protected water conservation site and yet there have been more than two dozend environmental incidents in the 18 months since opening the factory including the spilling of 15,000 liters of varnish, 13 tons of aluminum and several hundred liters of Diesel.

They seem to think that you can just make these things go away by increasing salaries a bit. The region might need Tesla as an investor because of jobs and tax income but they now have a nationwide reputation as a bad employer and an irresponsible company.

Looking at Musk's threat to withdraw X/Twitter from Europe over the new Digital Services Act and the way he has treated Twitter employees after taking over it all fits a pattern of disdain for both European standards and his own employees.

This is hardly any real news, his principles are well known (I had links about that before).
Plus it is well known that US people in general don't know how to do business in Europe, since socio-economic paradigms are visibly different. This is exactly why all US/EU trade deals are so difficult.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Speaking of Germany:

Germany — National parliament voting intention

The parties of the governing coalition are slowly but steadily fading out in their support (Red, Yellow, Green). What basically has pretty big consequences on the long run. The debate could shift to center right vs far right axis (what happened in some EU countries). Or it could happen that some new left wing party emerges. What means reset of national politics and debates in a certain sense.

 

[ceecee]

This is hardly any real news, his principles are well known (I had links about that before).
Plus it is well known that US people in general don't know how to do business in Europe, since socio-economic paradigms are visibly different. This is exactly why all US/EU trade deals are so difficult.

Yeah but Musk is in a class of "difficult" by himself.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Polls open in Argentina election amid severe economic crisis

As I said about a month ago ... where have we seen this ?



Swiss anti-immigrant party projected to make record election showing

Populist right grows as counting underway for Swiss election

 

[Virtual ghost]

Von der Leyen doubles down on pro-Israel stance, lashes out at Iran

When even the EU is sending hawkish messages you can make a bet that hell all will brake loose down there.

 

[ceecee]

Polls open in Argentina election amid severe economic crisis

As I said about a month ago ... where have we seen this ?



Swiss anti-immigrant party projected to make record election showing

Populist right grows as counting underway for Swiss election

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1716155506182803729

 

[Virtual ghost]

Speaking of Germany:

Germany — National parliament voting intention

The parties of the governing coalition are slowly but steadily fading out in their support (Red, Yellow, Green). What basically has pretty big consequences on the long run. The debate could shift to center right vs far right axis (what happened in some EU countries). Or it could happen that some new left wing party emerges. What means reset of national politics and debates in a certain sense.

Yesterday I typed this and already today there is this:

Wagenknecht: A far-left challenge to Germany's far-right AfD


I mean I recommend the read since this could easily be the escalation of some new trends in Europe. Which is the rise of illiberal left. What means strong safety nets but basically complete removal of identity politics and multiculturalism. I mean to me as Slav this is the actual left, while what the west knows as the left these days is basically just liberalism in variety of forms. Therefore judging by my experience if this party gets established their primary target will be Green progressives. Since there is overlap in certain things and thus there isn't enough space for both parties. What makes the political struggle inevitable between the two. After all they openly said that they will target the ruling coalition first. What is the struggle that illiberal left could win exactly since it will drain many voters from the far right. Because many support far right only on the anti-establishment basis. While new party will probably strike much closer to home in many issues. The polls say that about 20% of Germans are already open minded regarding voting for the new party.


Herring you are more than welcome to comment on all of this.



Btw. all of this is the core of multiparty system: when one part of the spectrum messes up a few times in a row you will see creation of alternative. What opens the door for complete replacement of the party that got too far away from it's base. What overall of controlling mechanism, so that every party at the end of the has to answer to the base. In multiparty system you can't have genuine "establishment" since everyone is completely replaceable.

 

[Red Herring]

Yesterday I typed this and already today there is this:

Wagenknecht: A far-left challenge to Germany's far-right AfD

Yeah, this has been in the making for over a year, I think. Probably two years, not sure. It had long been expected and announced. We'll see how they fare. The fact she is calling this group Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht tells you all you need to know about her ego*

I mean I recommend the read since this could easily be the escalation of some new trends in Europe. Which is the rise of illiberal left. What means strong safety nets but basically complete removal of identity politics and multiculturalism. I mean to me as Slav this is the actual left, while what the west knows as the left these days is basically just liberalism in variety of forms. Therefore judging by my experience if this party gets established their primary target will be Green progressives. Since there is overlap in certain things and thus there isn't enough space for both parties. What makes the political struggle inevitable between the two. After all they openly said that they will target the ruling coalition first. What is the struggle that illiberal left could win exactly since it will drain many voters from the far right. Because many support far right only on the anti-establishment basis. While new party will probably strike much closer to home in many issues. The polls say that about 20% of Germans are already open minded regarding voting for the new party.

I'd be careful with poll number, but yes, there is some potential. The hope is that she will divert votes from the AfD and thus split and somewhat disarm the anti-system protest votes or at least stear it away from the protofascists. The media consensus seems to be that she will compete with the AfD over who hates progressives more and who understands the worries and concerns of the little man more. If they have something more constructive to offer than the AfD, good. This could be an attractive option for people who dislike foreigners, intellectuals and gays but don't want to be called a nazi.

I haven't seen any numbers on this yet but a question that vomes to mind is what age groups would support this new party. The AfD, even though they often sound like disgruntled boomers, are becoming increasingly popular with disenfrenchised young people. Young leftists over here, as far as I can tell, tend to be more of the socially progressive type. I think the Wagenknecht party and what you call the "true left" would more appeal to older people. The "old" left, which is actually what the SPD once was before it somehow got lost in a maze that they haven't found a way out of in the last 20 years.
Protest voters now have a choice whome they hate slightly more - social minorities or economic elites. New parties also often shapeshift a lot during their first years so it will be interesting how this goes. the AfD started as a conservative fringe group and became a hard-right force not to be ignored. The Pirates dropped into oblivion. There are the Free Voters that tend to be a regional grey zone between the CDU and the AfD and have also gained in importance, maybe speaking of a whish of conservatives to return to a more 1980s or 1990s style conservatism. And then there is Volt, a small progressive pro-European group that I find interesting but that so far few people know about.

In Germany we have Volksparteien (people's parties) - traditionally referring to the CDU and the SPD - that are supposed to appeal to a broad spectrum of the population. And there are Milieuparteien that represent the interest of certain social strata. The Greens are at their root a party of progressive educated urban people (aka the evil elite) that tried to become a Volkspartei and briefly came very close but failed. The AfD is also a Milieupartei of sorts, I think, in that they disproportionately appeal to less educated rural people feeling left behind and people with general antimodern resentment (the "enemies" in Karl Popper's The Open Society And Its Enemies). So the Greens and the AfD are at opposite ends of this culture war. They both try to become and claim to be Volksparteien. The FDP is obviously a Milieupartei.

Ironically there is at least one study out there that shows that AfD supporters are the ones who would most suffer from AfD policies because the party platform is staunchly neoliberal in economic terms. The question then is whether Wagenknecht can convince antimodern protest-voters that a strong welfare state etc are more in their interest than what the AfD has to offer.

The Greens on the other hand so far seem to know where they want to see the country in the future and what needs to be done to get there, but keep ignoring how to convice people to join them and make the transition easier for the economically vulnerable. Some of it is bad communication, some of it genuine ignorance. For many people they are demanding too much of them and offering too little. Unattractive.

Herring you are more than welcome to comment on all of this.

* Going by the interviews I have seen and what I have read I actually take her to be an ambitious highly intelligent and highly educated woman, very much socialized in the East with an equally great ego and a deep disdain for our current society. Deep in her heart she is closer to Russia than to the West.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Looking at Musk's threat to withdraw X/Twitter from Europe over the new Digital Services Act and the way he has treated Twitter employees after taking over it all fits a pattern of disdain for both European standards and his own employees.

Update on that.

Leave or comply with EU law: EU digital chief warns X chief Elon Musk

 

[Virtual ghost]

Erdoğan, at last, sends Sweden’s NATO bid to Turkish parliament

France sends weapons to Armenia amid fears of new conflict with Azerbaijan

Russia claps back at Latvia amid Balticonnector investigation

 

[Virtual ghost]

* Going by the interviews I have seen and what I have read I actually take her to be an ambitious highly intelligent and highly educated woman, very much socialized in the East with an equally great ego and a deep disdain for our current society. Deep in her heart she is closer to Russia than to the West.

That is obvious. As soon as you are in the domain of "illiberal left" it is evident that you have at least some Communist leanings. What inevitably leads somewhere in the direction of Russia. There is a reason why I said that this is the left as I know it. Since once you go east from Germany you will find a fair share of the left that is like this. New government in Slovakia is obvious example of this. If there is strong support from "shady people on the internet" this new party can become a factor in Germany. However if the system manages to chop it at the start that is probably going to be "all she wrote" regarding this story. In other words this is better to fight before it develops a foothold.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Yeah, this has been in the making for over a year, I think. Probably two years, not sure. It had long been expected and announced. We'll see how they fare. The fact she is calling this group Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht tells you all you need to know about her ego*

Is Wagenknecht an accelerationist? I'm interested in understanding this brand of European leftism. It sounds like the kind of thing I would find off-putting, honestly. Like sorry, but I don't want to recreate the social politics of the U.S.S.R or emulate its Russification policies or requiring all painters to use Socialist Realism or anything like that.

The "old" left, which is actually what the SPD once was before it somehow got lost in a maze that they haven't found a way out of in the last 20 years.

What do you make of Schroeder and his recent troubles?

 

[Red Herring]

Is Wagenknecht an accelerationist? I'm interested in understanding this brand of European leftism. It sounds like the kind of thing I would find off-putting, honestly. Like sorry, but I don't want to recreate the social politics of the U.S.S.R or emulate its Russification policies or requiring all painters to use Socialist Realism or anything like that.

She is a Marxist. By that I mean she has a PhD in philosophy and wrote her Masters thesis about Hegel's influence on Marx and was part of the leadership of the Communist Platform within the Linke until 2010. She had problems in East Germany but wanted to improve the sytem from within and has called the fall of the GDR a "counterrevolution". The leadership of her own party has criticized her for her "positive attitude towards Stalinism".

She has criticized movements like Black Lives Matter and Fridays For Future as bygoted, selfrighteous and out of touch with the working class. She is anti-woke and a strong critic of identity politics.

She also couldn't really bring it over herself to fully condemn Russia's attack in Ukraine because to her this is a proxy war the evil West (mainly the USA) has forced Russia into.

She argues that our constitution would actually allow an alternative to capitalism and that not just water, electricity and other infrastructure but also banks and businesses should be nationalized. She likes the Cuban or Venezuelan model and strives for "creative socialism".

She is against immigration because she says it drives wages down. She also argues that people are tired of receiving and helping refugees. Poor Germans might get outcompeted by even poorer refugees and soup kitchens might not have enough food for everybody, so the natives would loose out. This and some statements on the general right to asylum and the expulsion of criminal refugees has gotten her into conflict with parts of the antifascist left.

She once gave a joint interview with Frauke Petry from the AfD (far-right) with the somewhat embarassing result that they bith agreed on quite a few points when it came to migration and asylum. Her criticism of Merkel's decision to let in syrian refugees has repeatedly gotten her into condlict with her own party. She also rightfully criticized German arms deliveries in conflict zones which contributes to flight situations.

When Shimon Peres visited the German parliament to commemorate the victims of the Shoah in 2010 she was one of three MPs not to stand up for the standing ovation (she did stand for the victims but not for him).

When Russia sent their military to Syria she told Russia Today that the West should cooperate more with Russia instead of antagonizing it.

During the Covid pandemic she was sceptical of large scale mass vaccination and argued that the deaths were more due to staff shortage in hospitals than to the virus itself.

She has also publically joined forces with Alice Schwarzer (an iconic second generation feminist and TERF) against Western support for Ukraine arguing that solidarity with Ukraine is not worth provoking big brother Russia and risking nuclear anihilation. She is for more negotiations and concessions regarding Russia and considers NATO the greater evil.

She used to be rather popular within her own party and parts of the German far-left, not so much the party leadership. She's a bit of a diva who usually shows up better dressed than most female politicians, in a thick fur coat and with expensive jewlery. She is also one of the best paid members of parliament (i.e. one of those with the highest income from external sources, officially from book sales and paid talks). Her ex-husband (who is obviously not her responsibility) is a pro-Russian conspiracy nut who currently lives in Moskow as a self-proclaimed "chancelor of Germany in exile" (he was part of an attempted coup). There is some evidence they are still in touch whoch she officially denies.

What do you make of Schroeder and his recent troubles?

Next post!

 

[Red Herring]

What do you make of Schroeder and his recent troubles?

Schröder has always been a divisive figure. I think he was a good chancelor and basically agree with those who say the reforms he pushed through were necessary and would have been worse under a CDU government. He has gone increasingly bonkers after leaving active politics though and by now is just a sad figure.

To understand how he became that sad figure I think you have to understand his biography.
Schroeder grew up as a half-orphan in a very poor family on welfare. He worked his way up to become a successful lawyer and joined the left wing of the SPD. He was both socially progressive and pragmatic for his time and often caused friction within his party. He was good at reaching across the aisle and was the only chancelor, I think, to be elected not only with the majority of the house but even a few votes from the opposition. During his time in government he was attacked a lot both from the opposition and from the left wing of his own party. He saw himself as a rational pragmatic doer, a maker and reformist who pulled Germany into the 21st century.
Now, post-WWII-Germany has this pattern where we have a relatively long time of conservative government where few reforms are passed but wealth is accumulated until people hunger for a push forward (Adenauer, Kohl, Merkel). Then we have a brief stint of a progressive government ushering in a more modern era which is met with immense opposition (Brandt/Schmidt, Schröder, Scholz). It's basically a long phase of homeostasis followed by a cleaning-up team. Then rinse and repeat. Schröder was one of those refresh button intervals.
Schröder always had a massive point to prove and an enormous ego. Here in Germany leftwing politicians (well, politicians in general) are not supposed to display wealth. Schröder was known for his exensive suits and cigars. They called him "Genosse der Bosse" (comrade of the bosses) because he actually got along well with entrepreneurs and business leaders. Basically a new money vibe. When his government came to an end and he had to call for new elections before the regular end of his second term that must have been an enormous blow he never recovered from. In Russia he got the flattery and respect he so desired and could play the elderly statesman (a position reserved to Helmut Schmidt here in Germany until his death - Schmidt was an absolute icon). That's the psychological side.

The realpolitik side is that Schröder has always been a pragmatist in economics who often listened more to gremiums of experts and researchers than to his own ministeries. He saw that Germany needed Russian gas in order to prosper so he supported the pipeline. He was proud of his very good relations with Putin (he was on good terms with both China and Russia and saw that as strategically savy as it placed Germany in a diplomatic and economic position of power and offered a little more independence from big brother USA). Putin used him as a tool against Easter Europe in that regard. When Schröder left politics immediately after the end of his time as chancelor he accepted to position at Gazprom. I remember discussing this with my mum back in the day and how she said: "He's not doing this for himself, he is defending Germany's interests in Russia". Schröder was criticized a lot for both the construction of the pipeline and his joining Gazprom. He famously once defended Putin by saying that his buddy was a "lupenreiner Demokrat" (a flawless democrat). In his defense, that was back when Putin was acting much more friendly and many in Germany still thought the cold war was over, Russia was moving west and anti-Russian talk was just Uncle Sam trying to make us more dependent on HIS gas (which probably wasn't completely untrue). Like many in the SPD he prefered a slightly more equidistant approach to the two superpowers. Back in the days of George W. he supported Operation Enduring Freedom but was strongly against the war in Iraq (unlike his former "third way" colleague Tony Blair). Actually, opposing that war boosted his population enormously as some 90% or so of the German population were opposed to it, IIRC.

So his cuddling up with Russia should be seen as part of a a) a general desire for a position of Germany as a broker between the big superpowers of our time (including China), a position shared by Merkel that, obviously by sheer coincoincidence, is also highly compatable with German economic interest, and b) a certain sense of defiance out of a hurt ego.

He has long become an embarassment to the SPD but it is hard to kick somebody out of a political party due to legal reasons.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

Sounds like once you get passed the attempt to incite a reaction, all your left with technically that Ukraine soldiers put to good use training they received after Russia invaded their country.
I think we've passed this same rock a few times already.

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