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Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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When you merge the parties that lean left and those that lean right:


Bavaria
Right 70.7
Left 22.7


Hesse
Right 60.7
Left 32.8


The rest to 100 are tiny parties that didn't get anything.
Therefore saying that the left lost this is understatement.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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None of this is really that surprising if you know the situation on the field and how EU style democracy works. Currently there is a massive shift to the right all over Europe (at least when it comes to social issues). What is evidently due to multiple crisis going on around the continent. In other words center right parties realized that if they don't move rightward that the far right will hammer them to the point that maybe they will never recover. So in a sense they didn't really have a choice, the alternatives were/are kinda suicidal options. Especially because even with these moves the far right is still visibly expanding.

While on the other hand countries in Europe have multi-party system and in that system the number of your seats can be reduced to 0 if you don't listen to the voters. This is exactly what has happened to the far left and center party in Hesse in these elections. If you suck it is 0 seats for you, better luck next time. What is basically the main reason why I like this style of political system. Because it solves some problems pretty well, since you have to answer to the voters on the long run.

Plus it is worth mentioning that Merkel ega is over and the same can be said for free trade on global level. Therefore with new era come new paradigm (or the old ones are put back on the table). The war in Ukraine has caused reset in pretty much every aspect of the system.
I honestly shouldn't be surprised by the CDU moving to the right, political necessity tends to subsume all. I had just assumed that they were a part of the globalist hive mind and wasn't well versed enough in Ger politics to know that that much of tectonic shift had occured. I was completely wedded to the idea that the center right of german politics is forever merkelist at heart.

The question then becomes, whether the wall crumbles and the AfD is allowed into power or the CDU assumes enough of it's positions than it can meaningfully siphon off voters from the AfD becoming a political wolf in sheeps clothes as it were (all the positions of the AfD w/out the scary face).
 

Virtual ghost

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I honestly shouldn't be surprised by the CDU moving to the right, political necessity tends to subsume all. I had just assumed that they were a part of the globalist hive mind and wasn't well versed enough in Ger politics to know that that much of tectonic shift had occured. I was completely wedded to the idea that the center right of german politics is forever merkelist at heart.

The question then becomes, whether the wall crumbles and the AfD is allowed into power or the CDU assumes enough of it's positions than it can meaningfully siphon off voters from the AfD becoming a political wolf in sheeps clothes as it were (all the positions of the AfD w/out the scary face).

The CDU was recntly taken over by the wing of the party that didn't like Merkel too much rigth from the start. What in the end caused pretty significant reset withing the party. Plus with war in Ukraine her legacy was blown to pieces. Almost to the point that she never really existed.


The trick is that in this kind of political system no party is likely to get to 50% and rule on it's own. Therefore if you want to do right wing policies you can't really do them in coalition with left wing party. Therefore the real question is how much the wall will crack. Becasue if the CDU will go too far into the bed with AfD that is likely to push many voters leftward. While if it keeps them as the reserved players on lower level then AfD could get some say.


It all depends on how situation in the field will play out. After all center right plus far right is becoming common coalition combination in European politics. Therefore this could spill into Germany as well. Even if there are certain history based barriers to that. If Government in Germany is working with other EU governments that have far right in the mix that will probably change some thoughts on the topic. Especially if AfD decides not to play totally extremist role.


We will just have to wait and see.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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The CDU was recntly taken over by the wing of the party that didn't like Merkel too much rigth from the start. What in the end caused pretty significant reset withing the party. Plus with war in Ukraine her legacy was blown to pieces. Almost to the point that she never really existed.


The trick is that in this kind of political system no party is likely to get to 50% and rule on it's own. Therefore if you want to do right wing policies you can't really do them in coalition with left wing party. Therefore the real question is how much the wall will crack. Becasue if the CDU will go too far into the bed with AfD that is likely to push many voters leftward. While if it keeps them as the reserved players on lower level then AfD could get some say.


It all depends on how situation in the field will play out. After all center right plus far right is becoming common coalition combination in European politics. Therefore this could spill into Germany as well. Even if there are certain history based barriers to that. If Government in Germany is working with other EU governments that have far right in the mix that will probably change some thoughts on the topic. Especially if AfD decides not to play totally extremist role.


We will just have to wait and see.

I think this depends more on how bad things get in germany generally than how icky the voters think the AfD is.

If germany's economic situation doesn't improve soon you may be surprised how things go.

Exclusive: German government expects economy to shrink 0.4% in 2023
 

Virtual ghost

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I think this depends more on how bad things get in germany generally than how icky the voters think the AfD is.

If germany's economic situation doesn't improve soon you may be surprised how things go.

Exclusive: German government expects economy to shrink 0.4% in 2023


True, but I don't expect that things will change too much in this regard. So all of it will probably remain in the sphere of taboo's and how much over the line to go. As I said if AfD gets too much power in bed with CDU many voters will run left pretty much regardless of the economy. To understand this you just have to go into the mindset of average German. AfD as major political player just isn't something that is realistic. At most they can be support of center right on regional and locals levels. This is especailly because they have a ceiling of about 20 to 30% around the country, more people than that just wouldn't vote for them. Especially in the current scenario where CDU and CSU are moving rightward.






Btw results are coming in for Luxembourg and it looks that leading of government will be changed from centrist liberal to center right. Since the liberals, socialists and greens just don't have enough seats to rule in a coalition anymore.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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True, but I don't expect that things will change too much in this regard. So all of it will probably remain in the sphere of taboo's and how much over the line to go. As I said if AfD gets too much power in bed with CDU many voters will run left pretty much regardless of the economy. To understand this you just have to go into the mindset of average German. AfD as major political player just isn't something that is realistic. At most they can be support of center right on regional and locals levels. This is especailly because they have a ceiling of about 20 to 30% around the country, more people than that just wouldn't vote for them. Especially in the current scenario where CDU and CSU are moving rightward.






Btw results are coming in for Luxembourg and it looks that leading of government will be changed from centrist liberal to center right. Since the liberals, socialists and greens just don't have enough seats to rule in a coalition anymore.
I'm curious as to why this is true (if it is).

If the CDU moves as far right as it might, what's separating it from the AfD?

If they are hard capped at say 20% - 30% should the CDU/CSU even be worried about them?

Especially if the agreement holds to keep them out of any coalition, one would think they don't have much to fear.

Do you think the firewall keeping out AfD from coalitions etc. will hold?
 

Virtual ghost

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I'm curious as to why this is true (if it is).

If the CDU moves as far right as it might, what's separating it from the AfD?

If they are hard capped at say 20% - 30% should the CDU/CSU even be worried about them?

Especially if the agreement holds to keep them out of any coalition, one would think they don't have much to fear.

Do you think the firewall keeping out AfD from coalitions etc. will hold?


You must understand that German culture is built in such a way that they reject everything that has Nazi vibes to it. Since this is in schools, in TV, in books ... everywhere. Of course one part of the population can and will rebel to some degree but that wouldn't be some overwhelming chunk. After all even what AfD is getting now is more like protest votes than genuine support. After all if the party is behind firewall you may as well make a clear statement that you are unhappy.

Also CDU wouldn't move that far right. However it is moving rightward since they are moving into their old spot before Merkel era. The era that basically distorted the whole political spectrum of the country. After all idea behind this moving is not to leave too many voters to the AfD, even if CDU decides to use the party to pass certain things on the local levels.

Or they can say: Ok, you throw out the most radical ideas that you have and then we can have genuine right wing rulling coalition. If you mess this up we will just have snap elections and everyone will see that you didn't hold your end of the bargin. As I said Germany is multiparty system and thus things are fluid. AfD can get it's 20 percent but CDU can still expand at the expense of centrists and the left wing partries. Or even all those tiny parties that get some votes but don't manage to get any seats. The genune multyparty system is always dynamic and has it's actions and reactions. However due to that it always has much more options and paths than US style system.


So as I said: we will just have to wait and see. At this rate who knows where will be in 10 or 20 years.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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In my book all of these are more like probing attacks. Which are design to see if US can still follow the tempo.
Plus these all diverts US energy from Ukraine. Which is still the main fight in all this.
It can't.

We got lazy fighting wars against third world countries for 30 years.

Rolling around in MRAPs fighting dudes who only had ak's, pkm's, and explosives, and thought we still ruled the world.

We are finding out fast how "superior" all those vehicles are when the enemy has ATGM's, tanks, artillery, Helicopters, drones, jets, and deep strike missiles. Not to mention a navy.

Our recruiting numbers are terrible, our war materiel production is but a sliver of what it was during the cold war.

We outsourced the production of most of the components of our weapons, vehicles and ships.

We reduced our industrial plant in an effort to make more money off cheap foreign labor to such an extent that we don't even have the factories in the US to make enough stuff anymore.

If this shit with Israel keeps up we're gonna find our REAL quick where our loyalties lie (which would be with Israel).

The importance of Israel politically here is well documented, not to mention that we have the largest jewish population in the world.

From a cynical standpoint, we could actually help Israel win with support where I believe the best we can do in Ukraine is maintain a stalemate that they then slowly lose.

Worryingly though, I think we might have blown our wad sending so much to Ukr that now there isn't much left to send to Israel except Air to Ground munitions, since Ukr doesn't have much of an airforce so we haven't sent them too much of that.

But you can't win by just bombing people, Vietnam taught us that.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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You must understand that German culture is built in such a way that they reject everything that has Nazi vibes to it. Since this is in schools, in TV, in books ... everywhere. Of course one part of the population can and will rebel to some degree but that wouldn't be some overwhelming chunk. After all even what AfD is getting now is more like protest votes than genuine support. After all if the party is behind firewall you may as well make a clear statement that you are unhappy.

Also CDU wouldn't move that far right. However it is moving rightward since they are moving into their old spot before Merkel era. The era that basically distorted the whole political spectrum of the country. After all idea behind this moving is not to leave too many voters to the AfD, even if CDU decides to use the party to pass certain things on the local levels.

Or they can say: Ok, you throw out the most radical ideas that you have and then we can have genuine right wing rulling coalition. If you mess this up we will just have snap elections and everyone will see that you didn't hold your end of the bargin. As I said Germany is multiparty system and thus things are fluid. AfD can get it's 20 percent but CDU can still expand at the expense of centrists and the left wing partries. Or even all those tiny parties that get some votes but don't manage to get any seats. The genune multyparty system is always dynamic and has it's actions and reactions. However due to that it always has much more options and paths than US style system.


So as I said: we will just have to wait and see. At this rate who knows where will be in 10 or 20 years.

OK, this is what I was looking for.

With regards to the first bolded portion:

What gives them Nazi vibes?

Are these vibes something that portend them doing Nazi things if given power?

Do you think they are actually evil, or just icky? (genuinely curious)

Does the german populace at large think they are genuinely evil, or just icky?


With regards to the second bolded portion:

What are these most radical ideas?

What positions are outside the Overton Window in German politics? (the window is whats allowed to be discussed in politics)

Thanks for all this I know this taking up some of your time.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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Also I just heard on the grape vine that Israel sent 80% of its artillery ammunition to Ukr.

Oooof.

1696814894120.png


Also, I don't like where this is going.

 
Last edited:

Virtual ghost

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OK, this is what I was looking for.

With regards to the first bolded portion:

What gives them Nazi vibes?

Are these vibes something that portend them doing Nazi things if given power?

Do you think they are actually evil, or just icky? (genuinely curious)

Does the german populace at large think they are genuinely evil, or just icky?


With regards to the second bolded portion:

What are these most radical ideas?

What positions are outside the Overton Window in German politics? (the window is whats allowed to be discussed in politics)

Thanks for all this I know this taking up some of your time.


The problem with AfD is that it flirts with the Nazi era. Like taking pictures at the bunkers from that era or driving cars that have AH on the license plates (and we all know whose initials are those). After all as soon as you get into German nationalism you will get something that has feeling to that era.

The main problem with AfD is that it isn't pro western party. The party basically started as some kinda of nationalist party of ex eastern Germany, that want's to return the pride that they had as East Germany. Therefore since they got plenty of support there they are now spreading into what used to be Western Germany. Since they are profiting out of multiple crisis that are going on. Plus there are people from ex Warsaw pact that moved into Germany and now they like AfD due to this eastern feeling to it.

It is true that the party is projecting these partiotic feelings but deep down this doesn't feel right if we go deeper into the issue. The party is just too rectionary and it seem to be completely ignoring any kind of western institutions. Plus it is a member of Identity and Democracy block in the EU parliamant, which is well known to be Russia friendly. Some members of that block even took election loans from Russia back in a day. For you as right leaning US citizen it can be hard to understand how there can be "bad partriotism" but judging from what I saw this is exactly what seems to be the case here. For references take a look at China, which is pretty clear example of "bad partiotism".


In my book your values and worldviews are much closer to CDU/CSU than AfD.
Plus now there is this libertarian party called "Free voters" that is getting popular. Which is some kind of "light AfD", threfore if you are looking who to like this is probably where you belong. Since this seem to be the party of people who are concerned for the country but they just don't have the stomach for AfD. Since that party has some serious problems in it's mix.
 

Virtual ghost

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Also I just heard on the grape vine that Israel sent 80% of its artillery ammunition to Ukr.

Oooof.

View attachment 29555



From what I know this is false information.
Israel didn't send almost anything into Ukraine since it didn't want to piss off Russia. In other words it didn't want to do that becase Israel is hitting targets in Syria. The targets that have links to Iran. Therefore if they get bad repuration with Russia that has considerable presense in Syria it will get much harder to hit those targets.

So my bet is that this is false info.


However yes, the collective west isn't really prepared for massive war. Especially in cultural sense.
 

Virtual ghost

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