Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia puts international court’s top leadership on wanted list

Deal ‘with the devil’: Meet the Cubans who’ve joined Russia’s war on Ukraine

TikTok and Meta warned over Slovakia election lies

France withdraws troops from Niger

European Sky Shield Initiative: Can it protect Europe?

South China Sea: Philippines vows to remove Chinese barriers

 

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Ukraine says it killed top Russian admiral in Crimea missile attack

‘We know we aren’t going back’: Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians face up to a life in exile

EU talks tough on trade in China as it looks to play defense

The impossible dream: Feijóo launches doomed bid to lead Spain

US to loan Poland $2 billion for military modernization

Niger: Germany, US watch and wait as France pulls troops out

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Kephalos]

Pankaj Mishra: The West Shouldn’t Be Losing So Many Hearts and Minds.

The Indian elite is hardly alone in opportunistically raising the old banner of anti-colonialism against Western critics. Last year, while announcing his illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces, Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced at length the West’s historical depredations in India, China, and other parts of Asia and Africa, and cast Russia as the leader of a global anti-colonial alliance against a “racist” and “neo-colonial” West.

Make no mistake: Moral condemnation of Western powers has not been so widespread since the mid-20th century, when the “darker nations,” as W.E.B Du Bois called them, fought for national self-determination. And, though amplified by self-serving demagogues, it is again shaping mass perceptions and straining geopolitical relations across the globe.

Of course, it should also be mentioned that the whole of anti-colonial, anti-imperialist ideologies of the Cold War (and which are so much in vogue in Europe and the United States now), the ones positions actively promoted by the Soviet Union as much if not less than the multiple "Third-Worldist" positions of the "Communist-lite" Non-Aligned Countries (allied with the USSR in all but name, and sometimes not even that) and the New Left (the legal peace protesters and the criminal terrorists such as the Red Brigades and the Weather Underground), were always constitutionally "anti-Western" (and more specifically anti-American), and it should not be at all surprising that now that when Western New Left and its descendants is in power, that such ideologies are useless to get people to support intervening on behalf of Ukraine or against Russia.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Sweden’s PM calls in army chief as gang violence surges

Germany, Poland, Czech Republic start task force on illegal immigration

EU extends protections for Ukrainian refugees

Orbán says EU must answer ‘difficult questions’ before starting Ukraine membership talks

The Purge: Meloni clears critics out of Italian culture

Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenians fleeing in dramatic escape

 

[SensEye]

That last headline about Armenians fleeing Nagorona-Karabakh is a bit of good news. I'm sure the Armenians in question are not to happy, but frankly, that region was going to be a bone of contention for as long as it tried to self govern right in the middle of Azerbaijan. They've fought wars over it before, and I am sure they would again.

However, if everyone leaves, it will quiet down and after a few decades, should more or less be forgotten (kind of, I know ethnic tensions in that area like to seethe for long times).

So it's for the best in the long run. And lets face it, 120K people is about 2 weeks of illegal immigration at the US border, so it's not like a huge number of people relocating in those terms.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That last headline about Armenians fleeing Nagorona-Karabakh is a bit of good news. I'm sure the Armenians in question are not to happy, but frankly, that region was going to be a bone of contention for as long as it tried to self govern right in the middle of Azerbaijan. They've fought wars over it before, and I am sure they would again.

However, if everyone leaves, it will quiet down and after a few decades, should more or less be forgotten (kind of, I know ethnic tensions in that area like to seethe for long times).

So it's for the best in the long run. And lets face it, 120K people is about 2 weeks of illegal immigration at the US border, so it's not like a huge number of people relocating in those terms.

I am sorry but this is basically nonsense even if we skip the humanitarian part of the story. In other words this presumes that Armenia doesn't have other enclaves in the Azerbaijan. Or that Azerbaijan doesn't have those in the Armenia. After all mainland Armenia is even officially splitting Azerbaijan into two parts. Therefore claiming that something really got solved here is probably wishful thinking. Also Armenia has only about 2.8 million people, so when new 120 thousand come that will become a logistical problem. So when you do the math that is as 16 million people came to US in a week.


On the other hand this totally misses the big picture. Azerbaijan is surrounded by Armenia, Russia, Caspian sea and Iran. Plus it is one of main suppliers of energy to the EU and over it goes energy from Kazakhstan towards the west. So now when Armenia will become totally hostile to Azerbaijan that could make it possible to sandwich it between 3 of it neighbors in order to cause energy crisis in Europe. Which could easily disrupt the supplying of Ukraine. Not to mention that election for EU parliament are in 8 months. Therefore larger disruptions would surely make an impact on that as well. Therefore you can't really watch this in a simplistic manner, because this is a game of action and reaction.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France, Germany pave the way to making weapons in Ukraine

Ukraine makes clear it won’t accept second-class EU membership

NATO’s Stoltenberg vows more air defense systems in Ukraine visit

US urges Serbia to pull back troops from Kosovo border

Slovaks vote in tight election as ex-PM Fico eyes return

India: Sikhs protest in Amritsar after Canada's allegations

 

[SensEye]

I am sorry but this is basically nonsense even if we skip the humanitarian part of the story. In other words this presumes that Armenia doesn't have other enclaves in the Azerbaijan.

Well, I hardly consider myself an expert on this region. I suppose the Armenians could have stayed put under Azerbaijani rule, but they seem to have chosen not to. I think their choice to leave minimizes the chance for outright war. Also, I don't see how them staying would make any difference as to how Armenia and Azerbaijan get along. I simply presume they will never really get along. I think moving on is a refreshing change of approach in this case. The usual would be to scrap and squabble and try and draw other regions into the conflict.

I see Serbia and Kosovo seem to want to get back into it. It seems like a similar issue. A part of one country is predominantly populated by another ethnic group and they can't get along. Maybe if all the ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo would have moved to Serbia after the last conflict, this would not be flaring up again. I don't really know, and I don't much care. Just don't come whining to the west to step in if the various parties can't grow up and live as peaceful neighbors.

 

[Virtual ghost]

More of the fresh info on the topic.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Former PM Fico wins Slovak election

Slovakia elections: Populist Fico grabs victory


Reformed Communists outperformed the polls where things were already tight. Therefore judging from what I saw they should have fairly easy path of making coalition government with the nationalists. What means that Orban's old friend Fico is coming back into into life. His party on the political compass is in the center of authoritarian left quadrant. So if he manages to form a coalition we basically have new Hungary on the map. After all the two countries are geographic neighbors.



Opposition march in Poland ahead of parliamentary vote

While in Poland the vote is in two weeks. Polling average says it will be tight.

PiS+confederacy - 47%
Mainstream parties - 50%



Maldives: Opposition candidate wins presidential election
Plus it seems that the west lost one more election with geopolitical consequences.



Turkey: 'Terrorists' attack Interior Ministry in Ankara
Also we can add this into the mix.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Here we go.
Now we will see what will happen.

Europe takes climate fight global as carbon border tax goes live

 

[SensEye]

Hmm, wasn't sure exactly how this CBAM would work (that article doesn't bother to cover that aspect) but I see it's just another name for an import tax. Import taxes/tariffs are almost always inflationary, so the end result likely won't be too popular with most citizens (i.e. voters).

I find many people love to express concern about the environment when pollsters come a calling. Not so much when they get the bill.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Hmm, wasn't sure exactly how this CBAM would work (that article doesn't bother to cover that aspect) but I see it's just another name for an import tax. Import taxes/tariffs are almost always inflationary, so the end result likely won't be too popular with most citizens (i.e. voters).

I find many people love to express concern about the environment when pollsters come a calling. Not so much when they get the bill.

Questionable, since the internal market of the EU is big enough that it can/could sustain itself for the most part. Doing this in a country with 20 million is surely a bad idea. However when it is done with 450 million and new ones are coming this could be different story. In other words you can't do green transition if someone can just dump cheap products based on energy from coal. However if you don't do the transition you are messing up the environment and you need to import plenty of energy (if you have the cards that EU has). What in current geopolitical circumstance could be a problem since Russia has to be out of the picture. So this is more like a ambitious project than the crazy one. But that is impossible to understand if you don't distance yourself form traditional understanding of economics.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[SensEye]

Questionable, since the internal market of the EU is big enough that it can/could sustain itself for the most part. Doing this in a country with 20 million is surely a bad idea. However when it is done with 450 million and new ones are coming this could be different story. In other words you can't do green transition if someone can just dump cheap products based on energy from coal. However if you don't do the transition you are messing up the environment and you need to import plenty of energy (if you have the cards that EU has). What in current geopolitical circumstance could be a problem since Russia has to be out of the picture. So this is more like a ambitious project than the crazy one. But that is impossible to understand if you don't distance yourself form traditional understanding of economics.

It's doable, but it is definitely going to cost everyone. The tariff would not be needed in the first place if low cost goods were not being imported from areas with lax environmental laws in to begin with.

Maybe China will straighten up and fly right, but I doubt it. Take steel for example. Now I don't know the state of the EU steel industry, but I suspect all those plants with 70's era technology cannot just be unshuttered to replace cheap Chinese steel, even if China does squat on the carbon front. So the EU will keep importing Chinese steel, add tariffs, pass those costs on to consumers, and the planet will be little better off for it. Although the government will now have another flow of revenue to spend. Will they sensibly reduce emissions with that cash? Unlikely. More likely they will start issuing carbon rebates when unhappy voters start clamoring for new governments that will reduce the cost of living.

But I'm a cynic, so we'll see. We'll have to revisit this subject 3-5 years down the road to see how the old CBAM tariff is doing, and if carbon emissions are down any (or increasing at a slower rate even).

Also, look for the trend towards right wing governments to continue (although this will just be another log on that fire).

 

[Virtual ghost]

It's doable, but it is definitely going to cost everyone. The tariff would not be needed in the first place if low cost goods were not being imported from areas with lax environmental laws in to begin with.

Maybe China will straighten up and fly right, but I doubt it. Take steel for example. Now I don't know the state of the EU steel industry, but I suspect all those plants with 70's era technology cannot just be unshuttered to replace cheap Chinese steel, even if China does squat on the carbon front. So the EU will keep importing Chinese steel, add tariffs, pass those costs on to consumers, and the planet will be little better off for it. Although the government will now have another flow of revenue to spend. Will they sensibly reduce emissions with that cash? Unlikely. More likely they will start issuing carbon rebates when unhappy voters start clamoring for new governments that will reduce the cost of living.

But I'm a cynic, so we'll see. We'll have to revisit this subject 3-5 years down the road to see how the old CBAM tariff is doing, and if carbon emissions are down any (or increasing at a slower rate even).

Also, look for the trend towards right wing governments to continue (although this will just be another log on that fire).

Regarding right wing stuff - there is a reason why EU is promoting itself as the most progressive part of the world. In other words my right isn't your right. In other words the new carbon mechanism wouldn't really be possible if the right wing governments of the continent weren't on board. I tried to find a video of the fresh ad where European Conservatives and Reformist group is promoting clean renewable energy (among other things). But I didn't manage to find it. In other words this is the group of people that is considered to be far right in the mainstream media (their leaders are basically Meloni and Polish PiS party). My local far right also developed it's own green wing. In other words right wingers like to talk about economy, while energy that isn't based on fossil fuels is basically the only way to our energy independence. Our oil and gas reserves are low or already depleted. While many of our potential sources of those are being contested politically by Russia and China. On the other hand North America needs it's energy for itself (plus there is a Trump card in that whole mix). Which is why EU is pushing this so much, since anyone that isn't under pressure of foreign propaganda knows that on the long run this doesn't have meaningful alternative (even if we ignore the cliamte change altogther). So the only thing in question here is the tempo of the transition. While the people you are talking about are total fringe group even if they are getting fair amount of media attention in English speaking world. This is just the most extreme part of the right thart isn't really relevent in volume. Yeah it will cost, but alternatives will almost surely cost even more.


While the general idea is that we slowly decouple from China. It wouldn't happen over night but it will be slowly done so that we don't brake some eggs. This is the plan that is already underway. So what China does in being competitive doesn't matter so much. After all they are the main target of our new carbon tax.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine accuses Chinese oil and gas firms of sponsoring Russia’s war

This is calling spade a spade.
However the odds are that this is the move that is trying to get sympathies from the GOP regarding the funding. What at the end of the day is legit move regarding all the circumstances.



EU Socialists urged to kick out Slovakia’s pro-Russian election winner Robert Fico

If center right has thrown out Orban it kinda makes sense that center left throws out Fico. Since the differences between these two buddies are minor. If you plan to rule with the far right for the second time you shouldn't be in center left blocks.



EU set to announce Ukraine accession talks by December

‘It’s a survival issue’: Ukraine looks to arm itself as Western support slips

Spain’s king asks Pedro Sánchez to form government

Armenia's vote to join ICC irks Russia

India police raid journalists' homes in China funding probe

Turkey arrests dozens over suspected links to PKK

 

[Virtual ghost]