Cold war 2.0

[SensEye]

I'm seeing more analysis that suggests Prigozhin/Wagner were promised more support from the military (or at least certain factions within it) that appears to have dried up as they approached Moscow. Hence the sudden change of heart.

That makes the most sense to me. Plus, I figure Prigozhin wanted out of the Bakmut quagmire, so it was an attempt to kill two birds with one stone. He only achieved the latter but that is good enough for him and his core troops, although I suspect Putin still wants him dead at the first opportunity. We'll have to see if Prigozhin can keep himself alive over the longer term.

The whole episode weakens Putin, so some good came out of it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Wagner and Russia are here to stay in Africa, says Kremlin’s top diplomat

Putinism’s demise will be chaotic and violent

Unlocking Ukraine’s economic potential

Ukraine gas storage could be key to EU energy security

 

[ceecee]

Wagner and Russia are here to stay in Africa, says Kremlin’s top diplomat

Putinism’s demise will be chaotic and violent

Unlocking Ukraine’s economic potential

Ukraine gas storage could be key to EU energy security

This should be far more concerning than it seems to be at the moment.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[The Cat]

This should be far more concerning than it seems to be at the moment.

Africa is gonna be this cold war's Middle East. As climate change puts oil out there's a growing call for the the national resources for technology that comes from Africa. China's have been there for a while, US was/is when they're not fixated on culture war and hating the poor, More and more eyes are turning to Africa.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This should be far more concerning than it seems to be at the moment.

Of course but this is going on for a long time. The third world is completely full of Wagner and similar organizations from Russia/China (and all of their satellites). Those who don't know that simply aren't paying attention. After all I am from "eastern EU+NATO" country but I am still completely surrounded with Russian propaganda and Russia friendly media. Before the war energy supply was mostly out of Russian origin, there were Russian banks all over the place. Various big political parties are still voting against helping Ukraine. My pro Russian incumbent president even called the Ukrainians "attention whores". He even advocated that Russian and German foreign ministers should get married since they are perfect for each other. He also advocated against expanding NATO into Sweden and Finland. My ex Mayor was doing deals with Russia beneath the table for years and fixing all that crap will take years (and it will cost a lot). There are still Russian and Russia friendly magazine at kiosks. The other day I had a chance to watch Russian show about pets on TV .... etc etc. I am hanging on this random forum based on the other side of the globe exactly since the place isn't infested with "Russian propaganda".


As I said: in the case that Biden didn't won I would now live in Russian sphere of influence, as well as most of other East Europeans from ex Communist countries. However since Biden won things kinda stabilized and social pushback started. What is basically why Russia decided to "jump over Ukraine", so that it can directly maintain many of it's influences all over the wider region. They attacked Ukraine since it is in the way of preserving much larger influence ball (which Russians build over the years step by step). However for some reason Western media are politically correct about all this and now it looks like all of this just happened, or that it is some kind of political mismanagement. While this is basically a war about keeping a bunch of countries in NATO (what is basically preventing open remake of USSR). In other words there is evident Russian undermining of the system all over the place in Eastern Europe. While in some countries of the region there were even pushes for referendum initiatives that are about exit from NATO. However those never materialized. The process of undermining got most far away in Hungary but at least half of Europe has this trend (at least to some degree). Therefore if all of this can be found in NATO area you can only guess what can be found in some Third world place that lacks any counter-measures against this kind of influence.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Bulgaria must rid its spy services of Russia-backed agents, says head of leading party

This is basically what I said a few posts up. All around Eastern Europe there is considerable and pretty toxic Russian influence. As a matter of fact most of it is influence that was regained over the last 10 to 15 years.



We have reached the point of maximum Russian danger

Gaming out Russia’s future

Ukraine updates: Kramatorsk attack death toll rises

 

[Virtual ghost]

I mean when you take a look at the democracy index there is this very very light democracy zone covering most of eastern Europe. What is the area that Russia was trying to get back. However in order to do that they need better physical contact with the region. Therefore they had to "jump over Ukraine". Especially since Ukraine started to go west and thus it started to develop it's own democratic institutions. What means that it could block out Russians in the terms of their remade sphere of influence in the region. What is the main reason why this war happened.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[The Cat]

How is the waste systems managing for this? Have there been anyone getting sick yet? Do y'all have mosquitos over there?

 

[Virtual ghost]

How is the waste systems managing for this? Have there been anyone getting sick yet? Do y'all have mosquitos over there?

I am living fairly close to the country but not close enough to know every detail. After all on the field there is surely such chaos that things are being improvised. War at home means that the society is severely disrupted for over a year. On the other hand rivers and swamps or Eastern Europe are generally full of mosquitos, so I am willing to bet the same is the case in Ukraine.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Data for 2023.
I am unsure if I posted the version for 2023.

 

[ceecee]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673089981219508224

 

[The Cat]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673089981219508224

oh irony thou has entered into tragedy. Have so many really forgotten so much history?

 

[Red Herring]

But that doesn't matter too much since attacking Lithuania means open war with the entire west. Even if they manage to take the country in a few weeks ... then what ? They will still be in a war with the whole west. I fully understand why all of this is stressful to Lithuania but Russia just isn't in the position to do ww3. Something that will not change anytime soon. What we saw over the weekend is that they have problems controlling even their own cities once things go off the rail.

It might not make much sense to even broaden the frontline and actively pull NATO into this but not only did Lithuania ask Germany to permanently station troops there, Latvia is calling for increased border protection out of fear of Wagner infiltration and Poland announced they'd also increase military presence at their border to Belarus. The entire neighborhood is on heightened alarm.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It might not make much sense to even broaden the frontline and actively pull NATO into this but not only did Lithuania ask Germany to permanently station troops there, Latvia is calling for increased border protection out of fear of Wagner infiltration and Poland announced they'd also increase military presence at their border to Belarus. The entire neighborhood is on heightened alarm.

Of course that NATO troops have to be sent there. Even if it is just "diplomatic gesture".
However the odds of direct NATO-Russia conflict are very small. Russians are over their heads in problems and NATO will not attack Russian mainland.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

France deploys 40,000 police as Macron seeks to avoid 2005 riots rerun

Pence meets with Zelenskyy in Kyiv

Let’s build a combat-effective Europe

 

[Virtual ghost]