Cold war 2.0

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Russia warns West sending F-16s to Ukraine ‘carries enormous risks’

Pro-Russian protesters vandalize EU offices in Bulgaria

Bulgaria agrees government with rotating PMs to tackle corruption

Denmark wants to host Ukraine peace summit in July

 

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BREAKING: Turkey election: Third-place finisher endorses Erdogan

At this point the opposition needs a miracle in order to win.

 

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Russian court extends Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s detention by 3 months

Germany, Hungary spar as tensions mount over blocked Ukraine aid

Spain’s Podemos on the defensive as election reckoning looms

Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy vows to bolster marine corps

 

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The best place to attack is the the place where it is least expected. What is evidently Russia itself.
But now when Russia will have to redeploy some troops on that border as well and thus they will become thinner in many other places. What then makes it more simple for Ukraine to do counter-attack in occupied regions.

 

[Kephalos]

Russian Indicted in U.S. Lobbies for Freedom Through a Prisoner Swap: Bitcoin exchange operator, facing money-laundering charges, pushes to be part of any deal that could free WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich.

[Alexander] Vinnik’s effort highlights some of the critical dynamics in international prisoner swaps, a phenomenon that has become newly prominent as the U.S. grapples with a rise in hostile countries detaining American citizens on grounds the U.S. considers to be bogus.

The Evan Gershkovich case: https://www.wsj.com/news/evan-gershkovich

 

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US investigates claims American gear used in raids on Russia

 

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Chinese hackers targeting critical infrastructure: Microsoft

 

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Ukraine is preparing the terrain.

 

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Twitter to pull back from Europe’s disinformation crusade

Frictions. Plus this is perhaps the first step towards ban.

 

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Turkey votes again, with Erdoğan poised to extend his rule

Spain: Sanchez govt faces pressure as regional vote opens


Today there are two important votes.

 

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Feel free to skip the add in the video.

 

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Turkey votes again, with Erdoğan poised to extend his rule

Spain: Sanchez govt faces pressure as regional vote opens


Today there are two important votes.

As expected Erdogan won and that is pretty much it.
But Spain is real news, the left objectively got crushed. They got only 3 regions out of 12 that were on the ballot (there is 17 of them in total). Plus they lost some big cities as well to the conservatives. Also the centrists got completely wiped out, since their whole base moved to far right over the last few years. Which as a result doubled in their number of seats in this election.

Sánchez’s Socialists suffer in Spain’s regional, municipal elections


Therefore the odd are that the current central government will lose elections in the fall.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The day of big news:


Spanish PM Sánchez calls snap general election after disastrous local polls
Plot twist: after what is be described as catastrophic loss in regional elections the ruling left wing alliance is going to snap elections (for various reasons). However with this bad results the odds are that the left will lose central government as well. So basically the whole country will turn to various flavors of right.

What Erdoğan does next
It is official, he won 5 more years.

Greece heads to the polls again on June 25
They are going to the polls but with new election law the right should carry this without too much turbulence.

Political uproar in Poland after Duda pledges to sign Kremlin commission law
The country is preparing to hunt down the 5th column across the country. The ruling far right plans some serious purges.

Germany — National parliament voting intention
From what I see far right AfD is growing further in Germany and this should be their best score in polling average ever.
They passed the greens and they are now just 2% behind SPD and becoming the second most popular party in the country. First is center right.

Plus I saw something that in Salzburg as a region right wing coalition is taking over. In my own local version of Detroit something similar has happened and the right completely stormed the elections for low level seats across the city. They beat the left something like 7:1 in seats taken and that was a landslide however you count this. Plus tomorrow the Dutch should know the composition of their new senate, and just about everything suggests there will be a clear right wing shift.


What overall is just another glimpse of how the climate around the continent is shifting and it evidently towards right. The previous consensus was build on the premise that the era of war is gone forever and that we can all just enjoy life. However with war in Ukraine and all of it's implications that logic completely fell apart. However this hit left wing parties the hardest since they were ideologically least prepared for something like this. Since the situation simply requires pretty clear structure in order that you can float through the economic crisis that came out of this. Plus since the right supports the most vital of the welfare programs this can't really be a backup strategy. So all across the continent the left will probably suffer major losses for years to come. Especially since many of those groups will be seen as too close to Russia (since some were close). So long story short: the existing order in Europe is probably done. The changes probably wouldn't be totally drastic but the consequences of war in Ukraine will be felt for years to come. Since relations , economy and energy are basically in some sort of "new normal" that wouldn't go away for years to come.

 

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[Red Herring]

The day of big news:

What's your take on the Serbian unrest in Kosovo and Vucic rattling his sabre?

 

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What's your take on the Serbian unrest in Kosovo and Vucic rattling his sabre?

In the bottom line that is complicated matter, but it isn't that complicated to understand. Vucic started his political career back in a day when the Communist party ruled the whole place and he was one of them. Therefore now he rules as autocrat and is very close to China and Russia. However the question of Serbia and Kosovo is basically the same exact story that we today have with Russia-Ukraine or China-Taiwan. In other words Serbia under Vucic claims that Kosovo isn't a country and that it is just rogue region of Serbia and that it is basically under NATO occupation. However since there are some Serbs still in Kosovo they often clash with "everything". So the situation never really calmed down from the war that was back in 90s.

Now what can be said about this in the wider sense ? The thing is that since Russia isn't doing well in Ukraine for a long time there is this debate about will Russia try to open the second front in the Balkans, in order to spread out the west. Therefore if you are going to do that Kosovo is basically ideal place where you would start a new front. Especially since that rapture would quickly spread on Bosnia and Montenegro that are basically in internal cold wars between pro-western and pro-eastern political forces. What means that in such scenario the Balkans would explode just as it did in 1914. when such chain reaction caused WW1. Something like this could cause huge damage to Serbia but many people there aren't as obedient as they used to be. So this playing with instability can be a decent attempt to quiet down some people because there is this "big threat" on the horizon. But however you turn it this is all drama for the sake of drama and instability. After all for years China is using it's global power to convince 3rd world countries to stop recognizing Kosovo. What by certain margin is even working. In other words if Kosovo isn't a country then it can't allow NATO to stay there.

 

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