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Cold war 2.0

Kephalos

J.M.P.P. R.I.P. B5: RLOAI
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
636
MBTI Type
INFJ
Enneagram
5w4
Report: Supply Chain Interdependence and Geopolitical Vulnerability: The Case of Taiwan and High-End Semiconductors.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2354-1.html
Key Findings:
  • The dominance of Taiwan over global semiconductor production creates geopolitical and economic vulnerabilities for the United States and its allies, as well as for Taiwan.
  • These vulnerabilities provide China with a potential asymmetric advantage.
  • Without preparation, a severe semiconductor supply disruption would have an immediate and significant impact on the U.S. economy and would create a national security challenge.
  • Because of the potential disruption to the global semiconductor supply chain and the absence of prior investment to create alternative semiconductor fabrication capacity, there are generally no good options for responding to either a peaceful or contested unification scenario.
  • Taking steps to support any Taiwanese resistance efforts could lead to broad and lengthy economic turbulence that would be politically unsustainable.
  • Any actions taken to offset the loss of semiconductor production access would likely lead to a long-term decline in economic output for the United States and its allies.
  • The vulnerabilities generated by Taiwan's dominance of the semiconductor supply chain were not well understood by any of the players who participated in the TTX.
  • Most of the players were unaware of (1) the degree of interdependence within the global semiconductor supply chain and (2) the time and expense that would be required to generate an alternative supply.
Recommendations:
  • The U.S. government should improve its analysis and understanding of the semiconductor supply chain specifically and the degree of supply chain interdependence in general.
  • An immediate and concerted effort should be made to reduce the concentration of semiconductor production in Taiwan.
  • The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) should be incentivized to move at least some production out of Taiwan.
  • Irrespective of TSMC actions, governments should take action to strengthen both domestic and allied semiconductor production.
  • The United States should coordinate with its allies to discourage and heavily regulate the movement of facilities and equipment to China.
  • Collaborative relationships with allied governments and industries are essential, even if such relationships run counter to the normal impulse to keep sectors separate.
  • Executive agencies need to engage with industry partners to identify the strengths and vulnerabilities of the U.S. position within the global semiconductor supply chain.
  • Instead of acting unilaterally, Washington should engage its allies and partners to respond as a united, multinational bloc.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
18,144
That's been my thinking as well. And based on my cursory search just now, it appears that Finland already spends about 2% of their GDP on defense like NATO members are supposed to, whereas Sweden is significantly below that. So it seems like Finland would be able to hit the ground running, so to speak.

If you are a neutral independent country and you have Russia literally next door then it is wise to have prepared defense force. Especially if you already had quite bad experiences with that neighbor. I was watching a documentary about all this in my local channels and up there they are for decades kinda preparing for what in the end happened in Ukraine. Therefore they didn't want to talk too much about NATO because of fears that this might trigger the war. Which in the end happened but a few hundred miles to the south. Therefore now it is perfect opportunity to get into NATO, since Russia is distracted. If Finland gets in that is what matters, Sweden is basically shielded by Finland. Which is fully ready member but it doesn't have that formal NATO stamp. Letting them in is basically pure "Calling spade a spade".





Yeah I saw that. I mean this is election year there and Russia friendly people have a shot at winning. So if you want to give something away now is probably the time. After all ending the war will evidently have impact on election results. For governing parties it would really matter that the mess next door end as soon as possible. While "We WON!!!" never gets old in this regard.
 

Red Herring

Superwoman
Joined
Jun 9, 2010
Messages
7,222
MBTI Type
INTP
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sp/sx

:huh:
I guess the next phase will be taking T-34s from WWII monuments, and then perhaps horses after that. :charge:

You mean these guys?

Sovietcavalry.jpg
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
18,144
You mean these guys?

Sovietcavalry.jpg


Actually this is how the army of Russian empire looked like. Therefore if you want to remake the empire these are the guys that should do the trick. :duh:





But yeah, it seems that Russia will spend pretty much everything they have in Ukraine. Therefore once they spend that the frontline will crash. In a sense it is no wonder that China now wants peace. Since they are smart enough to realize that peace is the only way Russia will keep any territory (or everything will just to nuclear). Therefore if Russia loses that will almost surely destabilize the country fundamentally and that means that China will lose it's main ally on the world stage. What would make it much harder to pressure the west and supply/support various little regimes around the world that are their outposts. This war really is about whatever the east or the west will have domino effect collapse. This is basically WW3 concentrated inside one country, since the owners of the most of world's GDP are sending help to one of the sides.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
18,144
After Macron, le déluge

France burns in overnight protests

King Charles’ visit scrapped as France burns


Serious mess in France. However this is the product of ignoring the problems for years.
Plus it must be said that in Europe there seems to be growing tide against libertarian right when you take a wider picture. Macron is quite unpopular, in Netherlands they just got some serious slaps in local elections. In Germany they are half of what they used to be in the polls just at the start of current mandate. In Greece no such party is expected to win a single seat in upcoming elections. Similar is in Spain, with just 2% of support that probably wouldn't result in seats in the upcoming elections. Denmark 30% drop over the last year in polls. Latvia 50% drop since last summer. In Italy they made a coalition of libertarian right parties and got 7% of the vote, not unexpected but not much either. My main such party for decades has started to hit pure 0% in polls. Therefore the finances will crash the party completely if situation stays like this (and it probably will). Romania 30% drop over the last 2 years. In Sweden they need coalition with nationalists since they just don't have the numbers. Not everything is lost but the new era isn't really on their side. The end of globalization as we know it due to the new cold war has basically destroyed the ideological foundations of this political block. I mean many are just tired of deregulating everything: the culture, the economy, the borders .... etc. After all collective security or strict planning is more fit for the problems of today, which are far from trivial.
 
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