Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[The Cat]

So this is what damnation feels like.

 

[The Cat]

I wonder how they're gonna try to sell being an evil empire to the people who aren't already brainwashed...

 

[Red Herring]

In completely unrelated news Russia and the US have decided to resume diplomatic relations. A new Russian embassador will soon arrive in DC. Air traffic will likely also be resumed between both countries.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/27/putin-hopeful-as-russia-and-us-negotiate-diplomatic-reset

Oh, and Russia is no longer considered a cyber threat by the Trump administration...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-russia-hacking-cyber-security

 

[Red Herring]

The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.

 

[Red Herring]

Also utterly unrelated:

China’s defence ministry warns Taiwan ‘we will get you, sooner or later’

 

[The Cat]

I cant wait to hear from the ministries of truth and peace how he's not a russian asset.

 

[Virtual ghost]

German election: CDU/CSU, SPD begin preliminary talks

 

[Virtual ghost]

Kurdish militant group PKK declares truce with Turkey after 40 years of conflict

 

[Virtual ghost]

In sense this is funny, since in a way I live in blue labor environment basically my entire life.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Zelenskyy says Ukraine must be 'heard' after Trump clash

Some updates on the story that really escalated yesterday.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Danish grocery chain to distinguish European from US goods

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK’s Starmer embraces Zelenskyy after Ukraine leader’s Oval Office showdown

Europe must show leadership against Trump’s ‘ruthlessness,’ Baerbock says

Orbán and Fico look to derail European unity on Ukraine ahead of London summit

 

[Red Herring]

I live near the city state of Hamburg, the only city state that actually isn't poor, fiscally speaking. It is a cosmopolitan, progressive city and politically mostly unchanged for many decades. It feels a bit like a last reservation of the world I grew up in as a fellow Northern German.

The polls just closed a few minutes ago, so here is a first forecasts of the election results for the senate of Hamburg:

SPD 33.5 (-5.7)
CDU 19.5 (+8.3)
Greens 17.5 (-6.7)
Left 11.5 (+2.4)
AfD 8.5 (+3.2)
Volt 3.0 (1.7)

That is simultaneously a clear shift to the right AND still roughly 2/3 center-left or left. This is the culture I grew up around. This is what deep down still feels "normal" and how the world "should be". I think I am basically feeling nostalgia here.

Also, two hours before the polls closed voter turnout was at 66.8% which is good for local elections, I guess, and better than last time. Probably overall far lower than the 82.5% voter turnout at the recent general elections, but still good.

 

[Red Herring]

Just to be clear, Hamburg isn't perfect but it offers good quality of living while simultaneously being popular with hipsters. The 39% of the local Population are migrants or children of migrants (mainly Turks, Eastern Europeans and Afghans), half of those are not German citizens. The city has one of the largest trading ports in the world and several big companies. About 29% are (mostly moderate and barely practicing) protestants, some 60% follow no religion at all. 8% are Muslim. I could only find old data, but at some point Hamburg had the 4th largest GDP per person among European regions, after London, Luxemburg and Brussels. As far as the number of inhabitants goes it is somewhere between Phoenix and Houston (making it the second largest city after Berlin).

So the city manages to be run by generations of center-left politicians, has a lively progressive hipster art and startup scene, a high share of migrants, lots of publically funded arts and culture progamms, a strong economy and a fiscally stable budget.

 

[Red Herring]

What I am trying to say is: It can be done. A well run city might just lead to a place with relatively happy people, high voter turnout and a strong functioning democracy with relatively weak disruptivist far-right populism.

Granted, the reasons why local culture is the way it is basically go back to the middle ages.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Just to be clear, Hamburg isn't perfect but it offers good quality of living while simultaneously being popular with hipsters. The 39% of the local Population are migrants or children of migrants (mainly Turks, Eastern Europeans and Afghans), half of those are not German citizens. The city has one of the largest trading ports in the world and several big companies. About 29% are (mostly moderate and barely practicing) protestants, some 60% follow no religion at all. 8% are Muslim. I could only find old data, but at some point Hamburg had the 4th largest GDP per person among European regions, after London, Luxemburg and Brussels. As far as the number of inhabitants goes it is somewhere between Phoenix and Houston (making it the second largest city after Berlin).

So the city manages to be run by generations of center-left politicians, has a lively progressive hipster art and startup scene, a high share of migrants, lots of publically funded arts and culture progamms, a strong economy and a fiscally stable budget.

As I explained in the other thread I am coming from pretty much the opposite environment. Mono cultures fighting for dominance, tanks on the streets, concentration camps, mass destruction of infrastructure ... etc. Therefore I have honest question: why not make all of this with just Germans ? Why the melting pot ?

 

[Red Herring]

As I explained in the other thread I am coming from pretty much the opposite environment. Mono cultures fighting for dominance, tanks on the streets, concentration camps, mass destruction of infrastructure ... etc. Therefore I have honest question: why not make all of this with just Germans ? Why the melting pot ?

Short answer: Because we couldn't.

Migration is actually not one topic but at least two or three very different topics:

A - There's refugees applying for asylum. How many of those actually have a right to asylum and how many get rejected drastically varies from year to year. A large share of them actually have no legal right to asylum but are allowed to stay for humanitarian reasons because sending them away would be considered too cruel. Also in many cases some Eastern European country like Bulgaria would be legally responsible for them under Dublin II but won't take them or it takes ages to send them there. People in category A are mostly allowed to stay for humanitarian reasons based both on German and European law. They usually come from poor wartorn countries and often have little formal education or marketable skills. I have personally met an Afghan family where the father of the family couldn't read or write and didn't speak any German while his wife had at least some formal education. Their kid had severe problems at school because he was scholarized without knowing any German and his parents couldn't help him. They need public housing and free German classes and free healthcare and welfare payments until their application is finally processed and they are eventually allowed to work. Then after a few years about half of them finds a job. Some hyperintegrate (there's a Syrian I read about who not only became a citizen but the mayor of the little town he ended up in), some have much needed skills like nurses and since they are predominantly young men with too much time on their hands and a stressful depressing life some do cause problems (more so than the average German but not much more than the average poor male German). They have robust potential to become a net positive but require both a financial and a sociocultural investment. This is the group that much of the political conflict of the last decade has been about.
I recently read about a school in Berlin where 85% of the students were foreigners. Cases like that make things hard for everybody involed. However, my husband is a teacher who has taught many children from lower class migrant backgrounds and if you ask him he will tell you it's not an ethnicity problem but a class problem. Children from poor German families exhibit similar behavioral and academic problems to those of children from poor Arabic families. The lower class' values, views and behaviors are increasingly and somewhat independently from ethnicity decoupling from those of the middle class.

B -There's the much sought after foreign skilled personel. The Brazilian or Philipino nurse, the Indian IT guy, etc. These are desperately needed and we are actively competing with other nations over these people. The birth rate in Germany was at 1,35 children/woman in 2023. It is calculated that we need a net immigration of 400.000 people per year in order to maintain a stable population. Our aging society's demographics is an inverse pyramid. We have too few working adults with even fewer children having to take care of and pay for an enormous amount of seniors. The retiring babyboomer generation leaves behind an enormous gap, many are working past retirement age even though they wouldn't have to because they are so sorely need at their employers' (some teachers teach even past retirement because there are not enough teachers). We need nurses and care worker, doctors, teachers but also bus drivers, delievery drivers, and loads of IT workers and many, many more. There are more unemployed people than job opening because of the qualification gap but still so many job openings that they pose a serious economic problem. The current recession only puts a mild temporary damper on this. We need to be more attractive for category B to survive. They are an obvious net positive.

C - And then there are our legacy migrants. These are people or the decendents of people who came here decades ago mostly as simple migrant workers. Turks are the largest group in this category but there are also many Eastern Europeans including German-Russians that came here in the 90s. Most of the foreigners in Hamburg fall in this category. Their average income and education level is still somewhat below that of ethnic Germans, but they have become an integral part of society. Many of the second or third generation have become doctors, lawyers, engineers, members of parliament, academics as well as athletes, sucessful artists or tv stars ... the two researchers who developed the mRNA Covid vaccine were the children of Turkish migrant workers. They have for the most part well integrated into German society and are also a net positive. They are also very sensitive to both real and perceived discrimination and could contribute even more than they already do if given the chance. They also have a somewhat higher birth rate (it's 1.24 for ethnic Germans and 1,74 for migrants, both underneath the replacement rate but without them we'd be in even sharper decline).

We have had this conversation before. You are not really into diversity as a value in itself and I am not planning to debate that with you. But the demographic numbers are pretty clear and pretty damning. I also know that you think this can be turned around with some welfare programs for families. But this is a global problem/corollary - the wealthier and the more educated people become the fewer children they have. You can't force people to have children and you can't goad them either. Many countries have tried. As I have said before, if you know the secret recipe, sell it to the Chinese government (or the Russians or the Japanese or the Italians or ...) and become rich!

I personally don't care what ethnicity the people around me have as long as they are willing to become a functioning part of German society. My mother is in her late 70s and confident that with enough time group A will just morph into group C. Those who came here as children in 2015 are now young adults and many managed to integrate relatively smoothly.

 

[Virtual ghost]

We have had this conversation before. You are not really into diversity as a value in itself and I am not planning to debate that with you. But the demographic numbers are pretty clear and pretty damning. I also know that you think this can be turned around with some welfare programs for families. But this is a global problem/corollary - the wealthier and the more educated people become the fewer children they have. You can't force people to have children and you can't goad them either. Many countries have tried. As I have said before, if you know the secret recipe, sell it to the Chinese government (or the Russians or the Japanese or the Italians or ...) and become rich!

I personally don't care what ethnicity the people around me have as long as they are willing to become a functioning part of German society. My mother is in her late 70s and confident that with enough time group A will just morph into group C. Those who came here as children in 2015 are now young adults and many managed to integrate relatively smoothly.

What I asked was genuine question. This is exactly why I added my own childhood into the mix for the sake of context. Since I kinda don't get it. To be honest to me this all looks as liberal or center right attempts to maintain liberal market. Yes, it is warped into humanism and that isn't wrong, but that is more like methodology than anything else. This is exactly why parties of the east like my left and AfD don't like EU logic all that much. Since they have their own desires what to do about the population problem. I mean my left is more like the BSW than SPD. They don't really support Ukraine, plus last year they even made open attempt to make the government with my national far right. Which in the end choose the center right (that are for the most part reformed Communists, but they are the most pro EU party). I mean all I am trying to say is that we live in fairly different environments/realities. So yeah, I don't always follow the logic behind what you find "normal". However since we share the union, currency and many other things I sometimes wonder about certain things and parallels.