Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

SensEye said:
I don't follow Romanian politics, but it sounds like this is a best case scenario in the sense that if the far left is out, then all their supporters will be forced to vote centrist (because they obviously won't support the hard right). Ergo, a centrist victory should be assured. Although from what I read, the incumbent is the centrist, so if Romanian's just want change, the right could still surprise. Romania seems to be lacking a center right party, that's a real shame if it drives people to the far right as the only option for mildly conservative voters.

Yeah, you evidently don't follow the Romanian politics. Since this isn't how it works.
Left in Romania isn't really liberal. A few years back they even tried to put ban on gay marriage in the constitution. After all this is just rebranded and milled down Communist party that ruled before the wall came down. However the centrist liberal lady should be the genuine social liberal here. However that is the problem since this indicates that the good chunk of the left will vote far right in the second round. Because none of the two sides are like you imagine them. Plus to make things more drastic there were 3 fairly right wing candidates that split the base fairly equally . So the odds are that from other 2 candidates the far righter will also get a fair amount of support. Therefore my bet is that the centrist lady is the one that has pretty hard path to win this.

Plus this are just elections for president, next week there are elections for parliament and that is where the real power in the country is. While left has pretty large lead in the polls regarding parliament. But in the end it will probably make a coalition government with some of the right wing parties. In the current parliament that was exactly with the center right. However they are getting less and less popular so it is questionable if they will have the seats to make 2 party coalition with the left. What indicates that the left could potentially look further right. In East European politics the general rule is that ex Communists and nationalists tend to understand each other fairly well on anti liberal basis. This is exactly why they often rule together (nationally or locally).

So yeah, this is completely foreign concept of politics by your local standards. Out of all players in the game the liberal centrist lady is almost surely the one that the most like Trudeau. Since she should be the one that represents western values the most.

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

Ultranationalist candidate scores stunning first-round win in Romania election

This basically answers my rhetorical question, in Romania not only that is it 2016 ..... IT IS 2016 !

What in other words means that in the final round we now have ultra nationalist and liberal centrist woman. However I really don't see her path as realistic. Even if we add all of votes from the left that just isn't enough to outnumber the right. The only hope is very good campaign and hoping that none voting half of the country will show up. But in Romania that is so rural, religious and old school I just don't see the path for her. This will probably end as Hillary and Harris in Kentucky.

However I will also dare to say is that this has probably happened because the left wing candidate was too western like. My impression is that he opened too many taboo topics, for which the country wasn't ready. He got only half of what his party is projected to get in parliamentary elections next week. What in a sense opened the path that we have result that we go into the first round. Plus the fact that he resigned as PM just a week before election for the parliament suggest that the party will fell apart campaign wise. What will potentially give parties to the right of center more seats.

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

Romanians to beat back surging pro-Russia hard right

Older, blonde, female, liberal-centrist candidate that wants to be first female president screams from the stage "HE IS PRO-RUSSIAN CANDIDATE!"

Sometime you just have to laugh at some sights even if that isn't really appropriate. The pure absurdity of life simply requires that from time to time.

But none the less I really wish her well, this sprint over the next 2 weeks isn't going to be easy. She really has to pick up every voter she can to win this. In other words this is the race that has direct impact on what is going on in neighboring Ukraine. Since the countries share few hundred miles of border, over which various aid and trade routes are going.

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

Europe is under attack from Russia. Why isn’t it fighting back?

UK targets Putin’s ‘shadow fleet’ with fresh sanctions

Azerbaijan isn’t reexporting Russian gas to EU, Brussels insists

Ukraine updates: Kyiv says it hit Russia fuel facility

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

G7 foreign ministers meet to talk Ukraine, Middle East

Red Herring · Nov 25, 2024

Question (since you are more up to date with that kind of rhetoric and developments in the East of the continent in general): Romania - like Hungary and Slovakia - is a NATO member. How do these friends of Putin square that with their affinity to Russia? Do they want to quit NATO? Do they claim to be an honest broker in the middle who could help negotiate a ceasefire? I mean, what is their official position on their countries' NATO membership?

Virtual ghost · Nov 25, 2024

Red Herring said:
Question (since you are more up to date with that kind of rhetoric and developments in the East of the continent in general): Romania - like Hungary and Slovakia - is a NATO member. How do these friends of Putin square that with their affinity to Russia? Do they want to quit NATO? Do they claim to be an honest broker in the middle who could help negotiate a ceasefire? I mean, what is their official position on their countries' NATO membership?

The thing is that this isn't settled issue from what I see. However just about everything suggests that their long term goal is exit from NATO and EU. The problem is simply that they don't have the strength in their countries to actually do it. Their economies are simply too intermixed with the rest of Europe (Slovakia even has Euro as currency). Schengen also complicates quite a few things. Many people in their countries like populism, but they don't like it when things go too far. While US is fairly serious about keeping NATO together. Therefore these people just troll and go step by step, waiting for opportunity to run away. While taking some impactful investments from China also adds into this picture of going eastward slowly. Since this is in a way a form of decoupling from the rest of EU and NATO.

In a sense Russia taking over entire Ukraine would really make things much easier for them. Since in that case all these little autocrats would have direct land border with Russia once again. What is probably the main reason why Putin started the war in the first place. He wanted complete shock and coming out to the ex Iron curtain in a blitz. What means that the collective west simply had no choice but to send aid, especially since it quickly became obvious that Ukraine will resists with everything they have.

Virtual ghost · Nov 26, 2024

Pakistan protests: Khan supporters reach central Islamabad

Mass unrest in Pakistan.

Virtual ghost · Nov 26, 2024

TikTok CEO summoned to European Parliament over role in shock Romania election

Virtual ghost · Nov 26, 2024

Myanmar: How far will China go to keep junta afloat?

Finally an update on the war that no one is paying attention to.
In other words it seems that China is loosing control over this not so small conflict in it's own backyard. Just for the record Myanmar is bigger than Ukraine in land area and much more of the country is active battle ground. So this isn't a small, despite the fact that no one in the west really cares about this war.

Virtual ghost · Nov 27, 2024

Trump can’t deliver a peace deal, says ex-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba

I would say that the man is right.
After all if the pro Russians are getting elected all across central Europe that really opens the question of why Putin has to agree to anything. If you have friendly faces in countries over which all aid is coming and Ukraine exports then that is checkmate. There is no need to discuss anything. The only problem is that in that case the borders in the region are returning to how they looked before the wall came down. What is a problem since plenty of US assets and interests will remain behind this new wall. Not to mention tens of millions of potential refugees that will be going towards Western Europe.

I am afraid that all of this isn't going to be as simple as some are imagining it.