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Cold war 2.0

SensEye

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This link piqued my curiosity since it's usually the left that is bad for the economy not the right. So I gave it a read and found it completely vacuous. The whole premise is anti-immigration sentiment may deter 'skilled' workers from coming to (or staying in) Germany. Skilled worker is never defined, and IMO they are just referring to migrants in general, very few of whom have any skills. Fewer ditch diggers and food delivery drivers maybe, I doubt this will have any impact on skilled workers (whoever those might be).

I checked and DW is rated to lean center left in its' bias, but this particular article has a pronounced left wing bias.
 

Virtual ghost

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This link piqued my curiosity since it's usually the left that is bad for the economy not the right. So I gave it a read and found it completely vacuous. The whole premise is anti-immigration sentiment may deter 'skilled' workers from coming to (or staying in) Germany. Skilled worker is never defined, and IMO they are just referring to migrants in general, very few of whom have any skills. Fewer ditch diggers and food delivery drivers maybe, I doubt this will have any impact on skilled workers (whoever those might be).

I checked and DW is rated to lean center left in its' bias, but this particular article has a pronounced left wing bias.


Of course it has left wing bias. It is DW.

However I think you are underestimating how much of a snap there is in Europe regarding immigration. A few weeks ago I posted an article that describes how people are leaving Sweden since Center+hard right coalition took over. Which is because nation state is having some sort of rebirth in Europe as a concept. The concept that typical north American doesn't understand too much since North America is melting pot basically by definition (since natives are a clear minority). In other words what is in Europe called far right these days in North America is simply and openly called fascism. What can evidently be bad for business. I don't even think that I have to explain to you why that is the case (especially if we talk about German version of it).


Plus you overlooked another thing: most people coming into Germany are actually people from other European countries. Many of whom are quite skilled and educated. However they moved to Germany since there they will get bigger or much bigger money for that skill. Therefore if nationalism makes these people unwelcome they may go back home (or into some third country). What is a problem since there already is deficit of workers in the country. Therefore if Germany starts to wobble too hard the entire European market will do just that. What if continues will lead to complete crash of market continent wide. What in a sense is exactly what nationalists / far right what in the end. Since that would allow the full return to the nation state and dump of many ideas that came from the English speaking world after 1945.


As I said before: Right wing simply means that there is clear respect for tradition, structure and continuation. However that says very little about what those traditions actually are from culture to culture.
 
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Red Herring

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This link piqued my curiosity since it's usually the left that is bad for the economy not the right. So I gave it a read and found it completely vacuous. The whole premise is anti-immigration sentiment may deter 'skilled' workers from coming to (or staying in) Germany. Skilled worker is never defined, and IMO they are just referring to migrants in general, very few of whom have any skills. Fewer ditch diggers and food delivery drivers maybe, I doubt this will have any impact on skilled workers (whoever those might be).

I checked and DW is rated to lean center left in its' bias, but this particular article has a pronounced left wing bias.

As @Virtual ghost already mentioned, Germany has a demographic crises and desperately needs skilled migrants. It is also often rated as one of the least attractive countries for skilled expats from rich industrialized countries (mainly due to people not feeling welcome enough and Germans being perceived as emotionally cold). We need skilled personal in many industries, with the health and care sector just being one extreme example, people are also lacking in administration, production and the service sector. The fear that strong support for the far-right might scare away people who can actually choose where they go is not some crazy leftwing fantasy, it has very loudly and publically been voiced by economic researchers and pro-business organisations like the ifo Institute at the University of Munich and the German Institute for Economic Research, both independent research institutes with a stellar international reputation.

You are clearly right of center and seem to feel strongly about migration. That is no crime, but it does create a bias that is at least as strong as the bias you see in other people (or in this case, in some leading research institutions). Just something to be aware of.


Oh, and "skilled labor" (at least in Germany) is a clearly defined technical term meaning labor which requires either a university degree or formal multi-year vocational training.
 

Red Herring

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Wikipedia on dual apprenticeship (the most common form of vocational training in these parts):

A dual education system combines apprenticeships in a company and vocational education at a vocational school in one course. This system is practiced in several countries, notably Germany, Austria, Switzerland, South Tyrol and in the German-speaking Community of Belgium, but also for some years now in South Korea.[1][2]

In the Duales Ausbildungssystem, students can learn one of 250 (as of 2022) apprenticeship occupations (Ausbildungsberufe), such as Doctor's Assistant, Dispensing Optician or Oven Builder. The precise skills and theory taught are strictly regulated and defined by national standard
s: An Industriekaufmann (Industrial Manager) has always acquired the same skills and taken the same courses in production planning, accounting and controlling, marketing, HR management, trade laws, etc.[3] Especially in southern Germany this model is also used for a special college system called Duale Hochschule.[4]
 

Virtual ghost

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As @Virtual ghost already mentioned, Germany has a demographic crises and desperately needs skilled migrants. It is also often rated as one of the least attractive countries for skilled expats from rich industrialized countries (mainly due to people not feeling welcome enough and Germans being perceived as emotionally cold). We need skilled personal in many industries, with the health and care sector just being one extreme example, people are also lacking in administration, production and the service sector. The fear that strong support for the far-right might scare away people who can actually choose where they go is not some crazy leftwing fantasy, it has very loudly and publically been voiced by economic researchers and pro-business organisations like the ifo Institute at the University of Munich and the German Institute for Economic Research, both independent research institutes with a stellar international reputation.

You are clearly right of center and seem to feel strongly about migration. That is no crime, but it does create a bias that is at least as strong as the bias you see in other people (or in this case, in some leading research institutions). Just something to be aware of.


Oh, and "skilled labor" (at least in Germany) is a clearly defined technical term meaning labor which requires either a university degree or formal multi-year vocational training.

To that I can even add that my right of center government is smelling blood. Therefore for this reason they made the rule that everyone that is working abroad for more than 2 years can come home and not pay income tax for 5 years. The main target is of course Germany, since it took clearly the most of our labor (due to it's size, purchasing power and not being that far). In Europe there is a clear deficit of skilled workers so there is evidently open fight for those. Especially since younger people that are moving around also carry the reproduction capacity with them. Something that is also in fairly short supply.


So yes, Germany has every right to feel discomfort about it's rising radicals and it's labor market (something that wouldn't be obvious to a Canadian).
 

Virtual ghost

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Czech government in disarray after poor election results

Debacle of mainstream pro western politics in Czech republic. They lost regional elections all across the country.
Also just for the record Babis is a personal friend of Orban and he has joined his party into the political group lead by Orban and Le Pen. A few other anti-system parties also did pretty well (Communists included).

Therefore now is the question will the governing coalition made mostly out of center right even manage to govern among themselves. After all this just proves that they will lose elections for parliament next year. What creates tensions in the coalition.
 

SensEye

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As @Virtual ghost already mentioned, Germany has a demographic crises and desperately needs skilled migrants. It is also often rated as one of the least attractive countries for skilled expats from rich industrialized countries (mainly due to people not feeling welcome enough and Germans being perceived as emotionally cold). We need skilled personal in many industries, with the health and care sector just being one extreme example, people are also lacking in administration, production and the service sector. The fear that strong support for the far-right might scare away people who can actually choose where they go is not some crazy leftwing fantasy, it has very loudly and publically been voiced by economic researchers and pro-business organisations like the ifo Institute at the University of Munich and the German Institute for Economic Research, both independent research institutes with a stellar international reputation.

...

Oh, and "skilled labor" (at least in Germany) is a clearly defined technical term meaning labor which requires either a university degree or formal multi-year vocational training.
My main beef with this was the quality of the article. Which has the premise (which I think is flawed) that the right is bad for the economy. So then the article tried to justify this faulty premise with the notion that anti immigration sentiment is driving out skilled workers, and provided zero evidence that is the case. If anything, comments like this defeat it's own argument:

A nationwide survey conducted by the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) in March 2024 found that nearly one in ten people with a migration background is seriously considering leaving the country. Immigrants originating from the Middle East and North Africa seem to be particularly concerned as 18.9% said they are considering leaving Germany.
Immigrants originating from the Middle East and North Africa I suspect for the most part do not even have the equivalent of a high school diploma, much less are they likely to be skilled.

Now this does not necessarily mean that in what I believe is a global competition for skilled immigrants that anti immigrant sentiment in Germany may make them less competitive. However, the article in no way, shape, or form, provides any evidence for this argument.

I myself am skeptical about the whole argument to begin with. Skilled immigrants are usually well educated, and as such, intelligent. Their prime motive for immigrating in the first place is probably due to seeking economic prosperity. They know they have an in demand skill, and I suspect, will go to countries who are offering the best salaries. Now, assuming salaries are competitive in G7 European countries, other considerations like social acceptance and cultural compatibility will come into play. But I doubt that would be a driving factor. To VG's point, tax incentives aside, I don't think many doctors or engineers or the like will be returning to Croatia for half the wages they could earn in Germany (or whatever the case may be wage wise). There might be a few who feel really uncomfortable in a different culture who would rather live with a lower income at home, but I suspect those are the exceptions rather than the rule.

Finally, consider this: I highly doubt a few thousands (or 10's of thousands) of skilled immigrants are fueling anti-migrant sentiment. It's the hundreds of thousands of unwashed masses flooding in living in economic ghettos that are pissing the citizens off. So if you want to tone down anti-immigrant sentiment, get your borders under control, keep out the riff raff, and folks will probably be more than happy to accept skilled migrants filling productive jobs (like health care) that everybody benefits from.

Another point which VG has mentioned several times, is business like having a large pool of low wage labor accessible to exploit. So while that might be 'good for business' it is not good for society or the economy in general. If you believe that, you should probably be anti minimum wage and anti unionization because that also suppresses wages and is 'good for business'.

How much demand for low wage grunt labor can there be in a modern industrialized society? I guess some agricultural industries still need seasonal labor, but that is best dealt with in other ways than allowing mass influxes of permanent immigrants. Other than that, how many millions of food delivery drivers does a place need? Worst case, people can drive their own lazy asses to pick up their take out. The economy is not going to collapse on account of this type of a labor shortage, which I suspect there would not even be, except for perhaps businesses only want to pay bottom dollar wages and only third world immigrants will take those jobs.
 

Virtual ghost

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My main beef with this was the quality of the article. Which has the premise (which I think is flawed) that the right is bad for the economy. So then the article tried to justify this faulty premise with the notion that anti immigration sentiment is driving out skilled workers, and provided zero evidence that is the case. If anything, comments like this defeat it's own argument:


Immigrants originating from the Middle East and North Africa I suspect for the most part do not even have the equivalent of a high school diploma, much less are they likely to be skilled.

Now this does not necessarily mean that in what I believe is a global competition for skilled immigrants that anti immigrant sentiment in Germany may make them less competitive. However, the article in no way, shape, or form, provides any evidence for this argument.

I myself am skeptical about the whole argument to begin with. Skilled immigrants are usually well educated, and as such, intelligent. Their prime motive for immigrating in the first place is probably due to seeking economic prosperity. They know they have an in demand skill, and I suspect, will go to countries who are offering the best salaries. Now, assuming salaries are competitive in G7 European countries, other considerations like social acceptance and cultural compatibility will come into play. But I doubt that would be a driving factor. To VG's point, tax incentives aside, I don't think many doctors or engineers or the like will be returning to Croatia for half the wages they could earn in Germany (or whatever the case may be wage wise). There might be a few who feel really uncomfortable in a different culture who would rather live with a lower income at home, but I suspect those are the exceptions rather than the rule.

Finally, consider this: I highly doubt a few thousands (or 10's of thousands) of skilled immigrants are fueling anti-migrant sentiment. It's the hundreds of thousands of unwashed masses flooding in living in economic ghettos that are pissing the citizens off. So if you want to tone down anti-immigrant sentiment, get your borders under control, keep out the riff raff, and folks will probably be more than happy to accept skilled migrants filling productive jobs (like health care) that everybody benefits from.

Another point which VG has mentioned several times, is business like having a large pool of low wage labor accessible to exploit. So while that might be 'good for business' it is not good for society or the economy in general. If you believe that, you should probably be anti minimum wage and anti unionization because that also suppresses wages and is 'good for business'.

How much demand for low wage grunt labor can there be in a modern industrialized society? I guess some agricultural industries still need seasonal labor, but that is best dealt with in other ways than allowing mass influxes of permanent immigrants. Other than that, how many millions of food delivery drivers does a place need? Worst case, people can drive their own lazy asses to pick up their take out. The economy is not going to collapse on account of this type of a labor shortage, which I suspect there would not even be, except for perhaps businesses only want to pay bottom dollar wages and only third world immigrants will take those jobs.

I can agree with all of that but the problem is that this isn't a full picture. Since there is plenty of immigration and emigration between European countries. So not all of immigration is from the Middle east and global south in general. Therefore rise of radicals can scare off plenty of qualified workers and experts from around Europe. What is a problem for powerhouse like Germany that can suck in everything: workers, resources, energy ... whatever you want. In a sense the potential problem is that radicals are likely to push out other Europeans that can return home at any time. While people from global south will probably decide to stay anyway, since they don't want to go back at any cost. What will probably further boost the radicals. Until one day when the whole thing will boil over.

While for my case of workers returning home around Europe: their wages at home can be lower. But so will the expenses. Plus you will have your family nearby. Also some countries around Europe have much much less "multiculturalism" than Germany, what can be a bonus for some people. Plus if you get the bonus that you don't have to pay income tax for years for returning ... this can be potentially tempting mix. Especially if you have economic growth at home and in Germany you have years of stagnation. Since the whole business model was build on globalization, which basically imploded under all the pressures during the last couple of years.


However you are also forgetting that here we are talking about AfD, which is the party with so much things over the line that even Orban and Le Pen have thrown them out of their club of hard-line patriots. This isn't your normal right. If you don't like Trump then you can't really support this crowd of people (or at least the party establishemnt). After all this is anti Ukraine party.
 

Virtual ghost

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Continuation of the thought:

The trick is that in Europe less and less people see economy as a solid argument to do anything. Something among the lines: I am relatively poor if we compare how things were just a decade or two back , while the corporations run the whole show. Therefore there is no real damage if the whole system just crashes or nationalists take over through elections. It probably wouldn't be great but at least we will stay a nation state we were for centuries and centuries. When you take a look at all elections around Europe this kinda seems to be the theme that is standing behind all of it more and more. Most of Europe has very violent past and therefore there is no real reason that this can't be repeated. After all it is the young that are increasingly having anti system thoughts. Especially since they should swallow much more than their parents had. While on the other hand big business is overconfident and thinks that this is US. What means that no matter what they will get special treatment. What will altogether put things on direct collision course that will eventually boil over if this continues.

The whole economy argument for immigration is basically imported from the English speaking world, which isn't known for internal revolutions and nationalizations. However that can't be said about mainland Europe. Especially the parts of it that aren't Protestant/Germanic or at least made of ex-colonial powers. I am currently using my 4th currency even if I live on the same piece of land my whole life. Therefore scaring people around me with "economy" wouldn't really do it or that simply isn't that much of argument to begin with.

In these parts of Europe we are the Orcs of this world for Christ sake.
The average modern first worlder gets insecurities just by walking into our restaurant or traditional party.






The economy will suffer ....
:fpalm:
 

Red Herring

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Continuation of the thought:

The trick is that in Europe less and less people see economy as a solid argument to do anything. Something among the lines: I am relatively poor if we compare how things were just a decade or two back , while the corporations run the whole show. Therefore there is no real damage if the whole system just crashes or nationalists take over through elections. It probably wouldn't be great but at least we will stay a nation state we were for centuries and centuries. When you take a look at all elections around Europe this kinda seems to be the theme that is standing behind all of it more and more. Most of Europe has very violent past and therefore there is no real reason that this can't be repeated. After all it is the young that are increasingly having anti system thoughts. Especially since they should swallow much more than their parents had. While on the other hand big business is overconfident and thinks that this is US. What means that no matter what they will get special treatment. What will altogether put things on direct collision course that will eventually boil over if this continues.

The whole economy argument for immigration is basically imported from the English speaking world, which isn't known for internal revolutions and nationalizations. However that can't be said about mainland Europe. Especially the parts of it that aren't Protestant/Germanic or at least made of ex-colonial powers. I am currently using my 4th currency even if I live on the same piece of land my whole life. Therefore scaring people around me with "economy" wouldn't really do it or that simply isn't that much of argument to begin with.

In these parts of Europe we are the Orcs of this world for Christ sake.
The average modern first worlder gets insecurities just by walking into our restaurant or traditional party.






The economy will suffer ....
:fpalm:
We have talked about this before and you basically admitted that you don't trust the studies and the expertes on this and go with your gut regarding the economic effects of migration.

But this is not just about a lack of pizza delivery guys or fewer employees in factories producing silly plastic toys.
In many parts of the country it takes months to renew a passport because there are not enough government employees to process all the applications, this is true for pretty much all administrative processes. They take forever because offices are understaffed. One reason the construction of wind turbines takes so long is because you need a new permit for every road you wnat to transport it on before it gets installed and that can take way over a year.
Hospitals are dangerously understaffed. Nursing homes are dangerously understaffed. Kindergardens and schools are promlematically understaffed. Roads don't get repaired because both the administration and the construction companies are understaffed. On some days the buses to my children's school simply don't run because the bus company does not have enough drivers (there's a national lack of drivers).

Already years before the curent multicrisis German manufacturing businesses have said that their (only apparently luxury) problem is that they do not have enough skilled people to fulfill all incoming orders. This is not about paying foreign workers less than natives, it is about the population shrinking and not enough middleaged people being alive and around to take care of the old ones, teach and supervise the few young ones and keep the nation running.
 

Virtual ghost

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We have talked about this before and you basically admitted that you don't trust the studies and the expertes on this and go with your gut regarding the economic effects of migration.

But this is not just about a lack of pizza delivery guys or fewer employees in factories producing silly plastic toys.
In many parts of the country it takes months to renew a passport because there are not enough government employees to process all the applications, this is true for pretty much all administrative processes. They take forever because offices are understaffed. One reason the construction of wind turbines takes so long is because you need a new permit for every road you wnat to transport it on before it gets installed and that can take way over a year.
Hospitals are dangerously understaffed. Nursing homes are dangerously understaffed. Kindergardens and schools are promlematically understaffed. Roads don't get repaired because both the administration and the construction companies are understaffed. On some days the buses to my children's school simply don't run because the bus company does not have enough drivers (there's a national lack of drivers).

Already years before the curent multicrisis German manufacturing businesses have said that their (only apparently luxury) problem is that they do not have enough skilled people to fulfill all incoming orders. This is not about paying foreign workers less than natives, it is about the population shrinking and not enough middleaged people being alive and around to take care of the old ones, teach and supervise the few young ones and keep the nation running.


Not really, it isn't that I don't believe them. I simply think that what they are proposing is probably culturally unrealistic (for some parts of Europe at least). There is a big difference between the two options.

When I see people around me I see mentality that is more like: let's at least try to fix this, it isn't the first time that we are going through the bushes. If we fail then everyone who is capable can take the land. Basically: don't bury this country until it is actually dead. Therefore even my mainstream politics is actually playing along for the most part.

People are even willing to accept some immigration to help out with problems. But not really at the scale it is being proposed by outside factors. We simply aren't culturally ready to be urban Germany. You take a person from global south and then the customers boycott you. Since the store down the road has a local. They don't speak our language and we often don't speak even English (especially older or rural people).


This is all much more complicated then some think it is.
 

Lark

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As I said before: Right wing simply means that there is clear respect for tradition, structure and continuation. However that says very little about what those traditions actually are from culture to culture.

That's really just common sense and its really regretable that the right wing has been so able to claim a monopoly upon it as its turned a lot of people of what is reasonable tradition, ie the benefit of experience / learned or earned benefits.

I also think its equally regretable that the left wing has not had a decently clear understanding of the value of innovation contra tradition at times (Tom Paine's books are good on this, part of the discarded or disowned tradition because of black propaganda against liberalism per se).

Anyway, I was going to say that there is a lot more to "right wing" than that reductive or "good press", the central principle of all conservatism is privilege, privilege as an inviolable, immenantly defensible and precious institution. All benefits of any description stem from it, if they dont, well, its the best possible world anyway, interfering with it or challenging it or proposing anything different is a gross error and will only do harm rather than any good.

Practically that's got way, way more to do with the fortunes or misfortunes of social elites than its got to do with social norms, habits, ways of thinking and acting among the public at large, because the same elites seldom think those same rules apply to them at all or ever will anyway.

The UK's history since the english re-elected the conservatives (the last 15 years) has been a very, very good example of what I'm talking about, its also a really good example of how being high born doesnt confer any especial skill at governance what so ever and how very, very out of touch being literally from the "old school" results in people being (Boris Johnson's "bucket list" like adventures in office and continued belief that he'd easily win an election again is a great illustration).

In the UK presently, the popular dislike / hatred of pretty much all politicians or any political messaging is translating into fortunes for the far right, I think in part this is because they are the loudest, most simplistic and appeal to the most bad tempered in the press and public.

Its mixed with a lot of toxic nostalgia, especially online (which I think is increasingly a proto-fascistic space, where old money laughs) with all the simplistic messages about how cheap fast food was when you were young or repeated rural idyle messaging. The thing about all that nostalgia is that, from the proper perspective of skepticism, which uses to be a conservative tenet, is that its about as worthy as all the "jam tomorrow" or "pie in the sky" of utopian innovators or religious promises.

Especially when the promised "better tomorrow" is meant to be delivered by "changing nothing" and more "same old, same old" anyway.
 

Virtual ghost

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That's really just common sense and its really regretable that the right wing has been so able to claim a monopoly upon it as its turned a lot of people of what is reasonable tradition, ie the benefit of experience / learned or earned benefits.

I also think its equally regretable that the left wing has not had a decently clear understanding of the value of innovation contra tradition at times (Tom Paine's books are good on this, part of the discarded or disowned tradition because of black propaganda against liberalism per se).

Anyway, I was going to say that there is a lot more to "right wing" than that reductive or "good press", the central principle of all conservatism is privilege, privilege as an inviolable, immenantly defensible and precious institution. All benefits of any description stem from it, if they dont, well, its the best possible world anyway, interfering with it or challenging it or proposing anything different is a gross error and will only do harm rather than any good.

Practically that's got way, way more to do with the fortunes or misfortunes of social elites than its got to do with social norms, habits, ways of thinking and acting among the public at large, because the same elites seldom think those same rules apply to them at all or ever will anyway.

The UK's history since the english re-elected the conservatives (the last 15 years) has been a very, very good example of what I'm talking about, its also a really good example of how being high born doesnt confer any especial skill at governance what so ever and how very, very out of touch being literally from the "old school" results in people being (Boris Johnson's "bucket list" like adventures in office and continued belief that he'd easily win an election again is a great illustration).

In the UK presently, the popular dislike / hatred of pretty much all politicians or any political messaging is translating into fortunes for the far right, I think in part this is because they are the loudest, most simplistic and appeal to the most bad tempered in the press and public.

Its mixed with a lot of toxic nostalgia, especially online (which I think is increasingly a proto-fascistic space, where old money laughs) with all the simplistic messages about how cheap fast food was when you were young or repeated rural idyle messaging. The thing about all that nostalgia is that, from the proper perspective of skepticism, which uses to be a conservative tenet, is that its about as worthy as all the "jam tomorrow" or "pie in the sky" of utopian innovators or religious promises.

Especially when the promised "better tomorrow" is meant to be delivered by "changing nothing" and more "same old, same old" anyway.

That wasn't the point of my post.
I am from post Communist country and my top right wingers have all grown out up in Communism. My left even teases my right wing PM because he had straight A grades in Marxism. Which at the time was obligatory subject at school. The line that is basically: come on we learned it together, don't you remember ? :D Therefore my entire conservative establishment has fairly different mindset than the one that you know. After all it is the ex red Army general who founded my national equivalent to Tory party (since he got bored with certain people). This is exactly why I often eat food that is made by government owned company (since it is good among other things), why I pay my electricity bills to government owned company, why I have socialized healthcare, Why my government defines car gas prices, why I am going to concerts that were organized by government and thus they are free. In 2017 there was a nationalization of about 20% of GDP (and that had to be done at the moment) .... etc.


Therefore in a sense it can be argued that I don't have right wing part of the spectrum. Since my conservatives and yours share very little. What was the point of that post. In some countries "the right" has quite different meaning than in English speaking world.


All of this is exactly why I just told Herring that how she imagines certain topics simply does not really apply to my environment. And all of this is just beginning.
After all I have been in that conversation with you as well if I remember correctly.


Welcome back.
 
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