Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Meanwhile across the channel.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Here we go again: 5 candidates and 3 are women. What makes it 3:1 since Farage isn't even in the party.

I mean I am just trying to show another practical example how some countries think differently about gender and high places.

 

[Red Herring]

I think this is also good time to bump this one. Out of all French options in this play only one has a female leader. Even if you dissect the left wing coalition from party to party this doesn't change. However everyone is panicking that the movement led by a woman will win the second round. Since she is the crazy right winger.


When you scratch the surface this really is "strange" when you think about it.

I don't think this is strange at all. It is a common pattern, especially among first females in a position. Generally speaking, a woman - even more so when she belongs to an ethnic monority - who is also a leftist would probably be a bit too much for many centrists and give the right a complete heart attack. So a male leftists is more electable than a female leftist. The conservatives on the other hand, especially on the far-right, often try to soften their image and appear a little more moderate than their agenda might suggest. A female candidate sends that signal.

Being female and being conservative/rightwing tend to "cancel each other out" a bit in public perception and thus make a candidate more palatable to the center.

There are exceptions like Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi or Benazir Butto but they were either elected as succesor to the prime minister when they already were members of the government or the daughters of previous heads of government (or the widow of a previous leader like Chertek Amyrbitowna Antschimaa-Toka, Song Qinling or Eva Perón).

 

[Virtual ghost]

I don't think this is strange at all. It is a common pattern, especially among first females in a position. Generally speaking, a woman - even more so when she belongs to an ethnic monority - who is also a leftist would probably be a bit too much for many centrists and give the right a complete heart attack. So a male leftists is more electable than a female leftist. The conservatives on the other hand, especially on the far-right, often try to soften their image and appear a little more moderate than their agenda might suggest. A female candidate sends that signal.

Being female and being conservative/rightwing tend to "cancel each other out" a bit in public perception and thus make a candidate more palatable to the center.

There are exceptions like Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi or Benazir Butto but they were either elected as succesor to the prime minister when they already were members of the government or the daughters of previous heads of government (or the widow of a previous leader like Chertek Amyrbitowna Antschimaa-Toka, Song Qinling or Eva Perón).

Of course it isn't strange, that was my starting point. However when I am on US forum I tend to adapt my talking points in rhetoric sense.

But yes, female + conservative kinda cancels itself out in most cases. After all women are indeed more into standardized social values and sticking to the master plan. Therefore when they come under the spotlight they can be "pretty good conservatives" in the terms of public perception.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I am curious if this will work.

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK National parliament voting intention


The elections are in 4 days and the man has brought himself within the striking distance of the conservatives. However it is almost a safe bet that today's big win of Le Pen will boost him. Therefore if he comes second the odds are that he will boost her for the second round in France that is in 7 days.

As I said: we are in uncharted waters.
However if someone thinks that all of this will have no or minimal effect on US ... guess again.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Plus there is one more story that is going somewhat under the radar due to everything that is going on. However this could be pretty big deal on the long run.


Orbán’s Fidesz forming new far-right alliance with Austrian, Czech parties

Hungary: Orban announces new far-right European alliance


Therefore the political order in Europe is evidently changing. However how the end product will look like is still pretty unclear.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Precious rare earth metals belong to the state, China declares

While this is also pretty big story. Since it will define global tech development and what is basically decoupling of the west from the country.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Macron is already over. Can anyone stop Le Pen?

French legislative election: Fallout from far right win — live updates

French election: Le Pen, Macron and Mélenchon dealing with very different hangovers


There are plenty of articles about what just happened in France but this should do for now.
In other words the people opposing Le Pen are probably too diverse to create fully unified front. While voters of various smaller right wing parties will probably vote for her party almost regardless of what leaderships of those parties say on the topic. There is another 5 days of active campaign until the second round but I wouldn't place bets that this would change things too much. First past the post system openly works for the winner of the first round.


Therefore all of this is huge deal, however if her party actually wins and proves competent in governing that means that the current order in Europe is completely over. Since most other countries would follow on some way (in the case that they aren't already ahead of France when it comes to this process). However the difference is that France is big and influential, and therefore it can easily serve as some kind of turning point.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Portugal’s Chega party to join Orbán’s new far-right alliance

At this rate this will surely become new group/block. What is major development.

 

[Red Herring]

Portugal’s Chega party to join Orbán’s new far-right alliance

At this rate this will surely become new group/block. What is major development.

A satirical website in my part of the world has a headline:

Nationalists Who Reject European Cooperation Want To Cooperate More Closely On A European Level In Their Fight Against European Cooperation

There has always been something strange about the concept of a nationalist Internationale, I think.

Arise ye nationalists populists from your slumbers
Arise ye prisoners of want!

 

[Virtual ghost]

A satirical website in my part of the world has a headline:

Nationalists Who Reject European Cooperation Want To Cooperate More Closely On A European Level In Their Fight Against European Cooperation

There has always been something strange about the concept of a nationalist Internationale, I think.

Yeah, it sound like alt-globalism.


However when you think about it this really isn't that strange. Countries forming alliances to solve large scale problems and threats is basically the ancient concept. In other words for a typical nationalist it isn't the problem that there is some cooperation among nations. The red flag for then is merging of countries into larger whole and slow undoing of local culture. Fairly rare are nationalists that hate all foreigners by default (and such people are usually ready to be diagnosed with something). Therefore for those people the problem is more in the content than methodology.

In other words this is basically the practical example of what I said in the other thread. Every man for himself logic wouldn't get far in the modern world. So you will need to make some kind of a group if you want to have any real influence in the big picture. Without a group of like minded people you just don't have the volume to do anything.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine updates: Government overthrow plot foiled — SBU

Germany plans new war bunkers

Italy latest in Europe to step up military ties with Japan

Are Angola's democractic values under threat?

 

[Virtual ghost]

They evidently plan to push back the Russians over the northern border.

 

[Virtual ghost]

French election: What happens next ?

 

[Falcarius]

Falcarius is willing to bet Reform UK struggle to get more than a handful of seats and there are at least 4 parties with more MPs.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Actually I think that is could be 3 parties, with newer numbers it should be more than just a few seats. But the number shouldn't be too large. However the Labor is expected to cripple SNP in Scotland. So Reform could come 4th.

The election night is in 3 days so we will quickly see.

 

[Virtual ghost]

United Kingdom — 2024 general election


Polling average is updated:

It seems that Conservatives will hold Reform pressure at bay.
I mean at one point last week that really came under question.

 

[Falcarius]

Reform has Lib Dem's historical problems in that their vote is not well targeted and spread across the country thinly. They lack councilors and therefore foot soldiers. It is not certain if they will win any seats, as most of their 20 top target seats were Labour seats so it appears they are most likely to get about 6 or so seats at most and maybe not even that. They will probably only win the following seats: 1)Clacton, 2 ) Louth and Horncastle, 3)Barnsley South, 4)Boston and Skegness, 5) Ashfield, 6) Cannock Chase, and 7) Skipton and Ripon. SNP will win about 12 or so seats.

So by Falcarius's maths, Reform will be joint 5th by seats with DUP and Sinn Féin.

 

[SensEye]

Trump's sentencing date on the hush money trail postponed to Sep 18.

Trump's really got the judiciary running scared. Seems like they are all playing ball to shield themselves from his wrath lest he win the election. No way he'll get jail time prior to the election. And not at all if he wins the election. I don't care how many discussions there are about state vs federal. The supremes will let him appeal and then overturn his conviction even if the latest immunity ruling hasn't already let him off the hook.