Random political thought thread.

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Tr

I took the poling averages on 538 for states that aren't safe and put all of that into the map for easier visualization. In other words once the Summer ends prepare for very dramatic campaign. Especially since it seems that more is in play than the expected swing states (in other words there is quite a few "lean states" towards the polling). The Dems simply seems to have a fair share of their voters that don't really want to vote for them. Or at least that is how I would explain the colors and the margins on this map.

:don't kill the messenger:

It looks bad for democrats now, but Trump’s going to have the steeper uphill battle. Just wait, you will see.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Tr


It looks bad for democrats now, but Trump’s going to have the steeper uphill battle. Just wait, you will see.

Towards the conventional wisdom that should be the case. However there is plenty of factors that can really muddy the issue. Not to mention that many of these are in the domain of foreign policy and global issues. What means that they can't be fully controlled. In other words it can be argued that today there is more of such factors than there was in 2016.


Therefore I am not prone to take things for granted. If the Dems are serious about winning that will evidently require some extra work this time.

 

[The Cat]

 

[FemMecha]

Trump's brain is falling apart a bit, although his devote followers won't notice because they will think it's all cryptic wisdom and slogans. I wonder what the debate is going to be like. Biden does have cognitive slowing, but Trump is having the paranoid, delusional form of dementia, and I think it is more severe than people are realizing. Biden has a more functional dementia if he has cognitive decline because he is able to hire and rely on experts on his staff, so his administration is far more stable.

Both of my parents had severe dementia, and my mother was able to disguise her's by using tag lines. She used to wander the town looking for places from her past, and my sister got a nurse to evaluate her, but the nurse missed the severe dementia at that first meeting because my mother answered questions like, "Can you tell me about your walks" with "Well, I just put one foot in front of the other" and than laughed a little. People with disintegrating cognitive function can remember memes and tag lines, even when their sense of reality is quite gone. I see this in Trump.

 

[FemMecha]

Minute 4:00 on
The crowd cheers while Donald Trump talks about washing his hair.

 

[SensEye]

Those clips once again boil down to the fact that a mentally declining octogenarian vs a mentally declining near-octogenarian is a terrible idea for two presidential candidates.

Even more alarming is what does that say about the mental capacity of the parties who put these clowns up for nomination and voters who subsequently supported them?

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Those clips once again boil down to the fact that a mentally declining octogenarian vs a mentally declining near-octogenarian is a terrible idea for two presidential candidates.

Even more alarming is what does that say about the mental capacity of the parties who put these clowns up for nomination and voters who subsequently supported them?

It's probably a matter of being unimaginative, and in the case of the GOP, it's a matter of being scared, as well. I think the Democrats are sometimes scared of nominating another George McGovern, but that couldn't possibly be something they are concerned with this time around. That was more in play in 2020.

 

[SensEye]

I had to google George McGovern, and I certainly recall nothing about him. However, I predict he would beat Trump if he was the Dem nominee today. I see he lost to Nixon, who might have been as crooked as Trump, but far less problematic otherwise.

 

[The Cat]

 

[FemMecha]

This is a bit random, but something I've wondered about from time to time. I recognize that racism is an ongoing issue that still needs to be addressed in society. I also understand that a lot of the racially dominant groups have been white people.

What is strange to me is that I remember growing up, and especially in the 70's 80's 90's and perhaps less today, it was a huge shame socially to have skin too white. When I was in 8th grade I spent the summer getting a suntan and not because i enjoyed it. I hated laying out in the sun, but knew it would be humiliating to go to school with really white skin. I lived in Wyoming at the time so I was surrounded by white people with a few Hispanic people.

The ideal culturally was tanned skin, but with blonde hair and probably blue eyes like Barbie. I'm not suggesting it is the same thing as having racial prejudice, but it is interesting that there has also been cultural shame to have white skin. Someone recently teased me about having really white skin and I felt defensive and pointed out that mine is a little olive toned implying bright white was shameful. I don't know if everyone realized that or had that experience. Is it about Barbie and images like that? Something else?

 

[FemMecha]

I think Trump tends to have great confidence that he can turn celebrities to favor him. He doesn't seem to take the initial rejection too seriously because he is skilled at wining, dining, and manipulating celebrities. I would expect Trump to have Hogan over to Mar-a-Lago to love bomb him into support. A lot of celebrities have either an inherent narcissism or an environmentally induced form of it which Trump knows instinctively, so he is actually quite good at manipulating many of them.

I just wish people weren't instinctively drawn to leaders who would be great if we were a small tribe alone in the jungle fighting for our lives, but these same leaders are a huge fail with big picture issues and the need to understand large-scale resources in the context of humanitarianism. We are a bit doomed as a species because our brains and instincts operate at a different level than the societal reality we have somehow managed to create for ourselves. We are a collective intelligence that creates a sense of self based on the accomplishments of the whole, but individually I doubt every human is smarter than every gorilla. I'm certain there are gorillas capable of greater linguistic and abstract thinking than some humans at the individual level. Gorillas and wolves don't have to try to negotiate issues that effect every animal on the planet, and they wouldn't be able to do it. Humans may not able to do it. We are a profound paradox.

 

[The Cat]

I think Trump tends to have great confidence that he can turn celebrities to favor him. He doesn't seem to take the initial rejection too seriously because he is skilled at wining, dining, and manipulating celebrities. I would expect Trump to have Hogan over to Mar-a-Lago to love bomb him into support. A lot of celebrities have either an inherent narcissism or an environmentally induced form of it which Trump knows instinctively, so he is actually quite good at manipulating many of them.

I just wish people weren't instinctively drawn to leaders who would be great if we were a small tribe alone in the jungle fighting for our lives, but these same leaders are a huge fail with big picture issues and the need to understand large-scale resources in the context of humanitarianism. We are a bit doomed as a species because our brains and instincts operate at a different level than the societal reality we have somehow managed to create for ourselves. We are a collective intelligence that creates a sense of self based on the accomplishments of the whole, but individually I doubt every human is smarter than every gorilla. I'm certain there are gorillas capable of greater linguistic and abstract thinking than some humans at the individual level. Gorillas and wolves don't have to try to negotiate issues that effect every animal on the planet, and they wouldn't be able to do it. Humans may not able to do it. We are a profound paradox.

Satirically speaking I would sooner trust a hungry polar bear with my wilderness tribal society than men like Donald Trump. I can trust the hungry bear to hold to a certain code of ethics in a way that only a delicious fool would believe that men like Donald Trump are good for them. In the internet debate of meeting an Authoritarian vs Bear in the woods. I'm sorry to all the despots and would be dictators out there, but I'm going team bear on this one. I just feel safer with a bear rather than an authoritarian. lol. Such times are these.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I think Trump tends to have great confidence that he can turn celebrities to favor him. He doesn't seem to take the initial rejection too seriously because he is skilled at wining, dining, and manipulating celebrities. I would expect Trump to have Hogan over to Mar-a-Lago to love bomb him into support. A lot of celebrities have either an inherent narcissism or an environmentally induced form of it which Trump knows instinctively, so he is actually quite good at manipulating many of them.

I just wish people weren't instinctively drawn to leaders who would be great if we were a small tribe alone in the jungle fighting for our lives, but these same leaders are a huge fail with big picture issues and the need to understand large-scale resources in the context of humanitarianism. We are a bit doomed as a species because our brains and instincts operate at a different level than the societal reality we have somehow managed to create for ourselves. We are a collective intelligence that creates a sense of self based on the accomplishments of the whole, but individually I doubt every human is smarter than every gorilla. I'm certain there are gorillas capable of greater linguistic and abstract thinking than some humans at the individual level. Gorillas and wolves don't have to try to negotiate issues that effect every animal on the planet, and they wouldn't be able to do it. Humans may not able to do it. We are a profound paradox.

A prohibition on video and audio of politicians. That might do it.

 

[The Cat]

I can just see how people would respond to the secret government who never appears on film or radio.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I can just see how people would respond to the secret government who never appears on film or radio.

Some things just shouldn't be a media circus. It's the same with criminal trials.

 

[The Cat]

Some things just shouldn't be a media circus. It's the same with criminal trials.

The Show Goes Ever On and Must Go On.​

 

[Red Herring]

This is a bit random, but something I've wondered about from time to time. I recognize that racism is an ongoing issue that still needs to be addressed in society. I also understand that a lot of the racially dominant groups have been white people.

What is strange to me is that I remember growing up, and especially in the 70's 80's 90's and perhaps less today, it was a huge shame socially to have skin too white. When I was in 8th grade I spent the summer getting a suntan and not because i enjoyed it. I hated laying out in the sun, but knew it would be humiliating to go to school with really white skin. I lived in Wyoming at the time so I was surrounded by white people with a few Hispanic people.

The ideal culturally was tanned skin, but with blonde hair and probably blue eyes like Barbie. I'm not suggesting it is the same thing as having racial prejudice, but it is interesting that there has also been cultural shame to have white skin. Someone recently teased me about having really white skin and I felt defensive and pointed out that mine is a little olive toned implying bright white was shameful. I don't know if everyone realized that or had that experience. Is it about Barbie and images like that? Something else?

As far as I understand it this is not race related but class related. Before industrialization the peasants were out in the fields getting tanned while the nobility stayed much more indoors. With industrialization things changed as the plebs were working in the factories and those with money could travel and relax in the sun. So a tan became the new status symbol.

Then tanning lamps were invented and became increasingly accessable. With that and, above all, an awareness of skin cancer and skin ageing processes the tan dropped out of fashion again. Today I personally associate a tan with the lower social classes, i.e. people who either do physical labor outdoors or who don't know or don't care about the health aspects and still strive for a tan as an outdated former status symbol.

There are countries in Asia where paleness has always been and still is associated with beauty. The whiter the better (probably also class and status related) On the other hand, I happened to see an article today about how the current science is reevaluating the risks of sun light exposure and the pendulum might move away from today's recommendation of sun avoidance (or at least strong sun protection) towards a more balanced approach.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I was outside and assumed I wouldn't be out long enough to need protection, and I became a real redneck.

 

[The Cat]

I was outside and assumed I wouldn't be out long enough to need protection, and I became a real redneck.

You lasted as a white raven as long as you could.​

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

View attachment 30870
You lasted as a white raven as long as you could.​

I wish I had lobed toes. Ever since I can remember, I always wanted lobed toes.