Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

OK, ok, mea culpa. We do use different terminologies. Socialist = Liberal in my world, so I tend to equate the two. I realize this is not accurate as I think Europeans equate socialist with communism/marxism or at least super left wing parties. It's all too complicated and nuanced for anyone who doesn't live there to really grasp. I do believe the European 'center' sits left of the North American 'center' though.

I'll try and just focus on issues instead. I think I can categorize political positions on issues as left/right fairly accurately for the most part.

The only one that baffles me regarding the EU is that what VG refers to as pro-business politicians (usually a right of center political position) are big fans of open borders. No right of center politicians in North America think that way. And quite frankly, it seems inane to me. If a country wants cheap immigrant labor, it can easily be obtained with 'work visas' or whatever term your country uses. You do not have to allow every fake asylum seeker into the country. It can all be managed legally and sensible right of center policy is to work things this way.

I know. The cultural problem is that anything "socialist" is generally seen as bad in the English speaking world. While in Europe "Socialists and Democrats" is the name of the center left group/block. Which is generally all about human rights, workers rights, protecting environment and safety nets. To the parallel of that you have Greens that are basically the same thing but they are more individualistic and unconventional about most thing, plus they are more pushy regarding protection of environment. While to the left of that you have the actual far left that is often seen as problematic even by center left voters. As I said: the genuine Hammer and Sickle guys that don't really exist in North America as defined group. To North Americans I describe these people as Far righters that don't belive in God or stock market.

However the people you are talking about are the so called pro business centrists. Which are often actually in the libertarian right quadrant in political compass. Macron, FDP, VVD etc. These is all in the same group inside EU parliament. In other words the libertarian part is why they are generally for pretty open borders and everything that comes in that mix. In other words these people believe that walls are basically bad for business. While business is mostly the only thing they care about. If people wouldn't remove them from power for changing the local culture they would eventually replace the whole domestic population (if they could profit on that). Why pay heathcare for the workers when you can just import more of the cannon fodder ? So I actually agree, this is indeed kinda insane when you think about it. Espeically since this evidently isn't thought out in practical detail.


This is exactly why the largest far right surges are in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Since those people are in power in those places and average Joe started to realize that things are going too far. Last year in the Netherlands they have actually run an immigrant to be the next prime minister. And this is where people just snapped and voted for Wilders in mass. I really don't consider myself to be extremist or hater but somewhere you indeed have to draw the line. Crashing safety nets and expecting local people to compete with people who work for peanuts ? That is basically returing of the clock for something like 300 years. In a sense voting for ultra nationalists has become lesser of two eavils by the opinion of many. After all it is better to go back 80 years than 300 years. Pure theatere of absurd.

My 2 cents:

1) Nonsense. Macron is a typical self interested power hungry politician. You will not be able to convince me otherwise. No chance he cares about legitimacy. And since he is not putting his own ass on the line, I think that proves it.

2) This could be. I watched that CBC segment you posted, and they at least see things from a Canadian perspective. That bit about running big deficits, then handing over power to the right (who then have to try to reel things in with austerity) is a common tactic of the left. People hate austerity and are too dumb to notice when they are being bribed with their own money when the left is handing out free stuff and running deficits (see: Argentina). So if Le Pen gets power, and implements some degree of austerity to counter Macron's poor fiscal management, it will blow back on her when it should blow back on him. But the electorate has short memories, so it would not surprise me if this is the game Macron is playing. OTOH, if Le Pen can fix the immigration problem, that will be hugely popular. I don't think the European 'center' realizes how unpopular open borders are. If a little austerity is required to preserve one's way of life, people might be able to handle it.

Disclaimer: there is no guarantee a right wing government will practice fiscal restraint either. They also lust for power and realize austerity is not popular, so like the left, they often try to kick the can down the road. My understanding is Italy is acting this way now.

3) See above. Pro business usually means right of center in my mind, but, and it's a big but, businesses don't mind huge deficits. It gives the rubes more money to spend on their products. But eventually, high deficits lead to high taxes and/or recessions. Business don't like that, but those pigeons can take years (sometimes decades) to come home to roost, so yeah, in the short run, I can see business financing Macron.

Those were just the options. Plus I agree that the first isn't likely. While 2 and 3 can basiaclly co-exist, so the plan is probably what happens happens.

 

[SensEye]

Do you think Americans are smarter for not falling into these pit traps mentioned in the bolded? That conclusion would seem to logically follow.

Yes, at least that has been true in the past. It's been true of most of the G7 countries as well. You can even extend this further into most of Western Europe. Things are heading in the wrong direction though.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Yes, at least that has been true in the past. It's been true of most of the G7 countries as well. You can even extend this further into most of Western Europe. Things are heading in the wrong direction though.

People usually don't say that about us. Very unusual.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Is Macron too toxic to win?




While is Germany it is also starting to boil for the same reasons.

Time runs out for Olaf Scholz

 

[Virtual ghost]

The great EU top jobs puzzle is nearly solved

All the pressures are evidently speeding this up.
There is just no time to take it slowly.

 

[Virtual ghost]

French conservative party ousts leader over alliance with far right

French conservative leader locks opponents out of party headquarters


Very very interesting turn of events. Macron basically managed to reveal that the leader of Center right is basically some sort of agent/spy of the Far right. In other words if center right now manages to get better leadership they should be able to start taking their voters away from the Far right echo chamber.
This also kinda explains why French center right said that they wouldn't support Ursula for second term at the helm of EU. Even if they are the same block.


It seems that the logic behind snap elections is probably going much much deeper than anyone thought.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[The Cat]

Near miss. This is how things get out of hand in history.
​

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russian warships enter Cuba's Havana harbor amid drills

Here we go again.

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU shocks China with EV duties of up to 38 percent

Armenia to quit Russia’s military alliance amid split with Putin

Ukraine updates: Fatal daytime strike on Zelenskyy hometown

Hungary won’t take part in NATO’s Ukraine plan

Preparations underway for G7 summit in Italy

New Korean flare-up carries greater air of menace

Benin-Niger oil export row flares again

 

[SensEye]

Hungary won’t take part in NATO’s Ukraine plan

The appropriate response to this would be to expel Hungary from NATO. Of course, NATO has already proven themselves to be spineless so they won't. And to be honest, Turkey should have been expelled from NATO quite some time ago.

As I understand it, it takes unanimous consent to expel a NATO member, so of course Turkey and Hungary will back each other in this regard. In that case, NATO should then disband entirely, and a day later, reform itself without these two and with some new bylaws to prevent rogue countries from having effective veto power. Again, that would take backbone, so it's a no go right off the hop for hapless NATO.

NATO is rapidly becoming as worthless as the UN.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The appropriate response to this would be to expel Hungary from NATO. Of course, NATO has already proven themselves to be spineless so they won't. And to be honest, Turkey should have been expelled from NATO quite some time ago.

As I understand it, it takes unanimous consent to expel a NATO member, so of course Turkey and Hungary will back each other in this regard. In that case, NATO should then disband entirely, and a day later, reform itself without these two and with some new bylaws to prevent rogue countries from having effective veto power. Again, that would take backbone, so it's a no go right off the hop for hapless NATO.

NATO is rapidly becoming as worthless as the UN.

Turkey is just too important due to it's influence in the Middle East. Therefore due to that and it's size it will never be expelled. Especially now that Erdogan is saying he will retire in a few years and he is losing support anyway. At this point it really is smarter to wait. After all once you do that China will take them over completely. What is simply counter productive.

While what just happened with Hungary is some sort of a compromise. But here also the tides seem to be slowly changing on the inside, since the people are starting to realize that Orban is going too far. Therefore even here it is perhaps better to see what will happen.


On the other hand NATO is just a group of countries that don't have to really agree to get things done. If a majority wants something done they can do it as individual countries. Therefore there is no need for even more drama, we already have more than enough of it. In geopolitics the North American "my way or the highway" logic is generally a bad idea.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Brawl erupts in Italian parliament, injuring lawmaker


The videos of this will soon be all over the place. The dude basically asked for it by starting the whole "physical thing".
Just for the record: 5 stars are pro Russian party, based on pretty much everything I have seen.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Record 120 million people displaced globally — UN report

Armenia to leave Russian-led CSTO security bloc

Israel-Hamas war: US tries to 'close the deal' on cease-fire

Ukraine: A focus on emergency aid rather than reconstruction

Is Macron’s gamble France’s Brexit moment?

Bart De Wever wants to break up Belgium. But first he wants to rule it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

United Kingdom general election polls


The populist party of Farage is just few percent behind the conservatives and it is expanding further.
The snap elections are in 3 weeks from now.

 

[SensEye]

The Tories can pretty much give up on this election and work on retooling for the next go round. As the video mentions, maybe this includes merging with the Reform party. Just the way it goes in politics sometimes, especially after one party has been in control for some time. Starmer seems reasonable although I don't really know his policies but I'd be worried for the UK if Corbyn was still running the Labour Party. They dodged that bullet though.

Four years is a long time. The Conservatives should be able to recover to more traditional polling levels during that time, especially if Labour screws up while they are in charge (i.e. immigration keeps running out of control, inflation persists, etc.)

I think talk of the 'end' of the Conservative party is hyperbole, but this upcoming election is a write off for sure.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I think talk of the 'end' of the Conservative party is hyperbole, but this upcoming election is a write off for sure.

This happens whenever a party suffers a defeat, and it's extremely dumb, and I wish it would be outlawed. I remember it in 2004 when Kerry lost, and in 2008 when McCain lost (this was especially played up; the way people acted, we were meant to think the Republican base disappeared). 2016 you had a premature one with an insistence that Trump would "destroy" the Republican party.

 

[The Cat]

Bridge Building​

 

[Virtual ghost]

The Tories can pretty much give up on this election and work on retooling for the next go round. As the video mentions, maybe this includes merging with the Reform party. Just the way it goes in politics sometimes, especially after one party has been in control for some time. Starmer seems reasonable although I don't really know his policies but I'd be worried for the UK if Corbyn was still running the Labour Party. They dodged that bullet though.

Four years is a long time. The Conservatives should be able to recover to more traditional polling levels during that time, especially if Labour screws up while they are in charge (i.e. immigration keeps running out of control, inflation persists, etc.)

I think talk of the 'end' of the Conservative party is hyperbole, but this upcoming election is a write off for sure.

The idea is that Reform UK would replace them as the main party of the right in UK. Therefore if you watch it from that angle the party is indeed fighting for survival. Plus there probably wouldn't be any kind of genuine merger with Reform UK. Since that party was designed exactly so that it replaces them. Some people will perhaps change ship if Reform decides to take them but that is pretty much it.

In polling average Reform is just 6% behind them and the gap is closing. What is existential threat to the party. Although it can be argued that Reform UK is actually the genuine Tori party. What makes this debate kinda complicated to sort out.