Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Israel says it has killed a top Hamas commander

Blinken warned lawmakers Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks

Putin to meet Xi in China this week

China says Israel has gone too far

Afghanistan: Magnitude 6.3 earthquake hits western region

Ecuador: Voting begins in presidential runoff election

 

[Red Herring]

Poland election: Ruling party PiS seeks third term


It is election night in Poland.
In other words these are elections of clear geopolitical significance. Especially since most of the help for Ukraine is going over Poland.

My husband and I talked about this today. It was a very short conversation:

- Oh, right, they have elections today.
- Don't do anything stupid, Poland!

 

[Virtual ghost]

My husband and I talked about this today. It was a very short conversation:

- Oh, right, they have elections today.
- Don't do anything stupid, Poland!

From what I see it looks that it will be record turnout since the fall of the wall. (if I am watching the correct info).
So shakeups are possible.


Exit polls should come out in about 30 min.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Exit poll


Pis 36.8%
Confederacy 6.2%


Civic coalition: 31,6%
Third way: 13%
New left 8.6%



Judging by this pro EU block won. This is about 43 vs. 53 % (the rest are tiny party's that wouldn't get anything).
I think that even gerrymander or the spread of votes can't close this big gap.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Opposition wins Polish election, according to exit poll


If it is true EU just got rid of the largest rock in it's shoe.

 

[Red Herring]

Opposition wins Polish election, according to exit poll


If it is true EU just got rid of the largest rock in it's shoe.

There's still Orban though ...
And Slovakia just elected Fico. And then there is Vucic (and the mess between Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina!). Not sure if this is really already a turning point.

 

[The Cat]

Good news abroad I hope?

 

[Virtual ghost]

There's still Orban though ...
And Slovakia just elected Fico. And then there is Vucic (and the mess between Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina!). Not sure if this is really already a turning point.

I said that this means removing of the largest stone in the shoe, not all of the stones.
Plus it is worth mentioning that Poland has bigger population than all those countries combined (The same should be the case for GDP as well). Not to mention that this should make things more stable for Ukraine. Since constant Poland-EU tension were a problem in this regard. Therefore all of this basically means political remake of Central Europe, and that means creation of the ground for fixing all of the remaining problems.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Good news abroad I hope?

This was just exit poll, we have to wait for actual results.
But if the numbers are even remotely correct the nationalistic and kinda unstable government of Poland was just voted out of the office.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I smell major problems in Poland.



1. The vote counting is going super slow by European standards. While on the other hand it seems that things could get pretty close. Especially since thus far the left block has only 8.2%. However if they fall bellow 8% they should get 0 seats. What means that the mainstream politics has no path in that case. Plus if it becomes really close will PiS really except the results ? Judging by how this situation turn out in some other countries I am not sure things will go by the book here.


2. The second problem is that mainstream gathered everyone. Therefore their spectrum is going from left wing fringes all the way to center right. Since you needed this wide coalition to stand up to the PiS. But how exactly to govern with this wide coalition when you have no breathing room ?


3. Even if it looses the elections PiS still has the President with certain veto powers, they have much of the media and they have the courts for the most part.




Food for though.

 

[ceecee]

I smell major problems in Poland.



1. The vote counting is going super slow by European standards. While on the other hand it seems that things could get pretty close. Especially since thus far the left block has only 8.2%. However if they fall bellow 8% they should get 0 seats. What means that the mainstream politics has no path in that case. Plus if it becomes really close will PiS really except the results ? Judging by how this situation turn out in some other countries I am not sure things will go by the book here.


2. The second problem is that mainstream gathered everyone. Therefore their spectrum is going from left wing fringes all the way to center right. Since you needed this wide coalition to stand up to the PiS. But how exactly to govern with this wide coalition when you have no breathing room ?


3. Even if it looses the elections PiS still has the President with certain veto powers, they have much of the media and they have the courts for the most part.




Food for though.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713650050524426681

 

[Red Herring]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713650050524426681

Miejmy nadzieję!

 

[Virtual ghost]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713650050524426681

I am very well aware of this, probably even more than you.
However this is exactly why I think that over there things may not go by the book once the votes are counted.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Welcome back, Donald: EU sighs in relief over Poland election results


However what I find kinda funny is that so many pretend that this was basically election between left and right. While in reality it was a fight between center right and far right. Since in Europe there is a huge difference between those two, because far right means choking of institutions (especially the ones that belong to the EU). So all of this was about that in the end. Because EU can't reform itself if the co called populists are blocking it in certain member states. While Poland is getting right wing leader however you turn it.

 

[ceecee]

I am very well aware of this, probably even more than you.
However this is exactly why I think that over there things may not go by the book once the votes are counted.

No no I just put it there because it was tweeted yesterday and it looks like nothing settled today. I do try to keep up with other elections in the world, granted I don't always fully understand what the parties are or their platforms without some reading or asking for clarification.

I do know a banana scion won the election in Ecuador so that's something.

 

[ceecee]

Miejmy nadzieję!

lol my initial thought at reading that tweet was Inshallah brother!

Joining the Gay Empire would be incredible. Everyone would have great hair and shoes, no terrible interior decorating or landscaping and the music would be lifechanging.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The new Wagner? Russian mercenary group recruits Prigozhin’s ex-fighters

 

[Virtual ghost]

Poland — 2023 general election

It seems that counting is finally coming to an end.
The opposition should have enough to make coalition government (gold, red and light blue parties on the list).

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Poland — 2023 general election

It seems that counting is finally coming to an end.
The opposition should have enough to make coalition government (gold, red and light blue parties on the list).

You know, red is a much more exciting color than blue. I'd rather be associated as red. These colors are only the way they are in the U.S because of a historical accident. There weren't even any party colors until 2000; it changed from year-to-year and network-to-network.

 

[Virtual ghost]

You know, red is a much more exciting color than blue. I'd rather be associated as red. These colors are only the way they are in the U.S because of a historical accident. There weren't even any party colors until 2000; it changed from year-to-year and network-to-network.

Yes, and to be honest your choice of political colors is going against pretty much every international standard. Which is that the main left wing party is red and main right wing party is blue.



What means that by these standards your map should look like this.

Representing conservatives with red simply goes against every standard there is. After all your own right wingers a few decades ago were singing "Better dead than red". But that is just American exceptionalism I suppose.