Cold war 2.0

[DiscoBiscuit]

On a different note, something I've been worrying about for a long time is that since the end of the cold war the US has forgotten that quantity has a quality all its own.

Imagine 10 F-35's trying to stop 2000 cardboard drones.

For perspective cardboard drone bombs cost about $3200 per whereas a single F-35 is $100 mill.

That would come out to a billion dollars in planes trying to stop $6.4 mill worth of drones.

Now we have drone defense but those are equally expensive on a unit cost basis.

We complained in Vietnam about dropping $500 bombs on $5 bicycles on the Ho Chi Minh trail.

We decided that we would pursue military tech at the expense of quantity, I worry to our ultimate regret.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

From what I know this is false information.
Israel didn't send almost anything into Ukraine since it didn't want to piss off Russia. In other words it didn't want to do that becase Israel is hitting targets in Syria. The targets that have links to Iran. Therefore if they get bad repuration with Russia that has considerable presense in Syria it will get much harder to hit those targets.

So my bet is that this is false info.


However yes, the collective west isn't really prepared for massive war. Especially in cultural sense.

We sent 300k artillery shells we stored in Israel to Ukr. From the times of Israel from Jan of this year.

US quietly shipping ammo to Ukraine from massive stockpile in Israel — report

 

[Kephalos]

Welp, looks like things regionally aren't looking any better.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711431016806547837

With the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia normalizing its diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, welcoming back Syria (and Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad) as a member in good standing of the Arab League, its unwinding of its war in Yemen (which also has to do with Iran), and with the United States' shift in approach towards Iran (and with Israeli-American relations in not such good shape), one wonders whether the Abraham Accords made much sense anymore (from the Saudi perspective), Hamas attack or no Hamas attack. This might be simply an excuse to end negotiations they never intended to see through to the end, although that is mere speculation.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

The problem with AfD is that it flirts with the Nazi era. Like taking pictures at the bunkers from that era or driving cars that have AH on the license plates (and we all know whose initials are those). After all as soon as you get into German nationalism you will get something that has feeling to that era.

The main problem with AfD is that it isn't pro western party. The party basically started as some kinda of nationalist party of ex eastern Germany, that want's to return the pride that they had as East Germany. Therefore since they got plenty of support there they are now spreading into what used to be Western Germany. Since they are profiting out of multiple crisis that are going on. Plus there are people from ex Warsaw pact that moved into Germany and now they like AfD due to this eastern feeling to it.

It is true that the party is projecting these partiotic feelings but deep down this doesn't feel right if we go deeper into the issue. The party is just too rectionary and it seem to be completely ignoring any kind of western institutions. Plus it is a member of Identity and Democracy block in the EU parliamant, which is well known to be Russia friendly. Some members of that block even took election loans from Russia back in a day. For you as right leaning US citizen it can be hard to understand how there can be "bad partriotism" but judging from what I saw this is exactly what seems to be the case here. For references take a look at China, which is pretty clear example of "bad partiotism".


In my book your values and worldviews are much closer to CDU/CSU than AfD.
Plus now there is this libertarian party called "Free voters" that is getting popular. Which is some kind of "light AfD", threfore if you are looking who to like this is probably where you belong. Since this seem to be the party of people who are concerned for the country but they just don't have the stomach for AfD. Since that party has some serious problems in it's mix.

I'm not well versed enough in German politics to know where I would fall on their spectrum.

On a larger point I don't think a country that makes patriotism or nationalism verboten is well positioned to survive long term (this argument applies to the entirety of the west if less so to the USA). It seems to me that Germany maybe learned the lessons of WWII too well and maybe threw the baby out with the bath water.

Diluting ones national identity while at the same time importing folks from strong cultures is a ticking time bomb for all (including the US). With no strong national identity there is no manner by which or incentive to assimilate. This then creates subnational cultures which then politicize and fight amongst themselves. It also has the problem of importing all their ethnographic grievances as the massive palestinian demonstrations in western cities demonstrates. The protest outside the sydney opera house is indicative here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711533311913345061

Its reasonable enough to not want to repeat atrocities, but denude yourself of a military and all national pride in an effort at doing so seems shortsighted in the extreme. Luckily for Germany that bet was underwritten by the Global American security guarantee that now seems to be dissolving.

With regards to western institutions, they seem to be dissolving all on their own. As US power projections recede it will continue to become apparent that interests of EU member states aren't as tightly aligned as we thought.

I would consider myself a nationalist and patriot, but I've had to disentangle those feelings from my utter disgust with the US government and the fact that my country has been manifestly made worse by it over the course of my lifetime. As my country has bifurcated into warring political factions and lost its unity, my pride in my home has become more local to my region (the South) and my state (Florida). I'm not sure how these feelings would translate, should I have been born a German. I do know however that it pains me that Germany has lost any semblance of such pride. I mean hell they have some of the best engineering on the planet which I luckily got to see at the porsche museum in stuttgart when I went to Oktoberfest in 2015. The also have awesome food and a rich European history. A history in which I hope they can still take pride. I'm sure I'm glossing over many many great parts of German culture but I have limited experience with them and limited space here.

I think all countries have both the need to and the right to be nationalistic and patriotic despite national allegiances or rivalries. I think it would be hypocritical of me to say patriotism for me and not for thee, even to China.

Sorry for expounding on length about that but I thought it might be helpful to give you a deeper understanding of my perspective.

It seems that within the current social/cultural makeup of German it may (emphasis on may) be impossible to be widely politically successful while publicly expressing nationalist views, regardless of whether ones policies reflect those views. If the CDU or free voters moves rightward enough they may be able to thread the needle of supporting policies reflective of nationalism or patriotism w/out the political baggage of publicly expressing such sentiment.

My confusion over the whole situation is to how Germany got to this point with all of this. I mean I understand, but WWII is quickly passing out of living memory, while East Germany's experience with the horrors of communism is still deeply within it. That may go someway to explaining the AfD's strength in east germany and the lefts weakness there.

The failure of the green project and multiculturalism in Germany may also go a way towards explaining the lefts recent losses nationwide. I'm not sure and am honestly just speculating here.

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

With the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia normalizing its diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, welcoming back Syria (and Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad) as a member in good standing of the Arab League, its unwinding of its war in Yemen (which also has to do with Iran), and with the United States' shift in approach towards Iran (and with Israeli-American relations in not such good shape), one wonders whether the Abraham Accords made much sense anymore (from the Saudi perspective), Hamas attack or no Hamas attack. This might be simply an excuse to end negotiations they never intended to see through to the end, although that is mere speculation.

I'm curious to see why you think US-Israeli relations aren't in good shape. I know the Biden admin has been palling around with Iran a little, but curious to hear your thoughts.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

I think Hama's has hoped to goad Israel into invading Gaza where they can brutalize Israeli forces in urban combat where the technological advantage doesn't mean much. Shades of Bakhmut.

 

[The Cat]

There are two common sources of confusion in the comments:
1. "Restraint" doesn't mean "do nothing" it means being selective.
2. The conflicts being cited as examples of brute force working are conventional. This is unconventional.​

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

On further thought, given that this will likely be the end of the Bibi admin much like the Yom Kippur war of 1973 was the end of the Golda Meir admin, I don't think this was something the Israeli intel community fully knew about before hand and allowed in an effort to get war that would give them the casus belli to annex Gaza. The wouldn't just shoot themselves in the foot like that.

I guess an intelligence failure a la 9/11 makes more sense. But such a massive failure is still surprising to say the least.

With Israel shutting off power and water to Gaza it looks like they're planning a serious siege. They've also been bombing the Rafah border with Egypt in an attempt to stop the flow of war materiel into the region, but I have a hard time not thinking that this wouldn't also keep people from leaving en masse. If they keep bombing the only land border they have with another country it hard not to imagine a large portion of the Gaza populace being stuck there. They have to be planning to go into Gaza and I don't see how more civies being there helps that, but I'm not an Israeli military planner.

I've heard some people who make a lot of sense arguing that these are all the first steps of an annexation. I'm still not sure that happens, but it's looking like it's more on the table than I had assumed. The situation is still very fluid, but one thing is for sure, I'm glad I don't live in Gaza.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711685738020941873

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Welp....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711748952440062075

 

[Virtual ghost]

I'm not well versed enough in German politics to know where I would fall on their spectrum.

On a larger point I don't think a country that makes patriotism or nationalism verboten is well positioned to survive long term (this argument applies to the entirety of the west if less so to the USA). It seems to me that Germany maybe learned the lessons of WWII too well and maybe threw the baby out with the bath water.

Diluting ones national identity while at the same time importing folks from strong cultures is a ticking time bomb for all (including the US). With no strong national identity there is no manner by which or incentive to assimilate. This then creates subnational cultures which then politicize and fight amongst themselves. It also has the problem of importing all their ethnographic grievances as the massive palestinian demonstrations in western cities demonstrates. The protest outside the sydney opera house is indicative here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711533311913345061

Its reasonable enough to not want to repeat atrocities, but denude yourself of a military and all national pride in an effort at doing so seems shortsighted in the extreme. Luckily for Germany that bet was underwritten by the Global American security guarantee that now seems to be dissolving.

With regards to western institutions, they seem to be dissolving all on their own. As US power projections recede it will continue to become apparent that interests of EU member states aren't as tightly aligned as we thought.

I would consider myself a nationalist and patriot, but I've had to disentangle those feelings from my utter disgust with the US government and the fact that my country has been manifestly made worse by it over the course of my lifetime. As my country has bifurcated into warring political factions and lost its unity, my pride in my home has become more local to my region (the South) and my state (Florida). I'm not sure how these feelings would translate, should I have been born a German. I do know however that it pains me that Germany has lost any semblance of such pride. I mean hell they have some of the best engineering on the planet which I luckily got to see at the porsche museum in stuttgart when I went to Oktoberfest in 2015. The also have awesome food and a rich European history. A history in which I hope they can still take pride. I'm sure I'm glossing over many many great parts of German culture but I have limited experience with them and limited space here.

I think all countries have both the need to and the right to be nationalistic and patriotic despite national allegiances or rivalries. I think it would be hypocritical of me to say patriotism for me and not for thee, even to China.

Sorry for expounding on length about that but I thought it might be helpful to give you a deeper understanding of my perspective.

It seems that within the current social/cultural makeup of German it may (emphasis on may) be impossible to be widely politically successful while publicly expressing nationalist views, regardless of whether ones policies reflect those views. If the CDU or free voters moves rightward enough they may be able to thread the needle of supporting policies reflective of nationalism or patriotism w/out the political baggage of publicly expressing such sentiment.

My confusion over the whole situation is to how Germany got to this point with all of this. I mean I understand, but WWII is quickly passing out of living memory, while East Germany's experience with the horrors of communism is still deeply within it. That may go someway to explaining the AfD's strength in east germany and the lefts weakness there.

The failure of the green project and multiculturalism in Germany may also go a way towards explaining the lefts recent losses nationwide. I'm not sure and am honestly just speculating here.

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts.

The thing with Germany is that they put the bet on the wrong horse. They presumed that globalization is unstoppable process and that they are the ones that have to be the first in that process. The dream was that there will be fully open world and we will all get mixed. Therefore if you lead in globalization that should bring various economic benefits. But as we know in 2023 this isn't how the game works. Therefore now the globalization is rapidly falling apart as we are getting into new era of global blocks and divisions. What caused certain cultural shock in the western Europe since pretty much all paradigms collapsed. In a sense the system is coping pretty well if we consider the scale of the shock that came with the pandemic and mess in Ukraine. Since both hit the supply chains pretty hard.


Multiculturalism can work but it requires globalization to be happening all cross the globe. Because if it isn't then some will rebel on the basis of why their culture is the one that has to go. However even if multi-culturalism works that will in the end replace the original culture of the area. Therefore in the end all of this kinda depends on how exactly you define "it works". I am from eastern parts of EU that are much more socially conservative than western Europe and to me whole multi cultural thing never really felt right. The whole thing seem to be driven by corporate power that want's to artificially boost workforce numbers and make multicultural workforce that will have trouble stading for itself. Since the workers will be with so different cards in hands that they will have trouble standing even for their basic needs.


The problem here is that you and I are from so different parts of the world that we even use different definitions of the terms. In my opinion you are mixing liberalism with the left, since you have never known anything that is to the left of liberalism. In USA genuine leftism simply doesn't exist, and most of you go crazy even on mentioning someting totally basic such as socialized healthcare. In other words my Croatian leftists have just started fullscale war againt the green progressives that are the left as you know it. Plus the right is heavily supporting the left through media pressure and statements since they wan them gone. Genuine old school leftists think that LGBT is individualist ideology that in the end makes working class weak. They are against many EU mechanisms such as open trade over borders or Europe. They even openly smeared EU and it's unckecked liberalism in their last Christmas message in 2022. Plus they are rocking the place and they trying to crash progressives in the few strongholds that they have. Since that is the only thing that Progressives have and once that falls the place is basically clear of liberalism. Especially since centrists are alreeady dead and they are failing to gather more than 2% in polls. Therefore if progressives fall the only things that stay is a few various shades of right and liliberal left.


However why I am telling you this. It is because the tides are turning and thus I expect that in Germany as well you will probably see the rise of left that isn't liberal. As a matter of fact as global supply chains are braking under all pressures local production will become more important. While people that work in manufacturing are fairly unlikely to become liberal people in modern sense of the term. Liberalism came to Europe from the English speaking world and since that world is weakening by all available info (including your opinion), the odds are that we will see return to some past times and that almost surely wouldn't just pass next to Germany. Take a look at what just happened in Slovakia. Illiberal left won the elections againt the liberals and they will form the government with nationalists in order to have enough hands. I still remember the shock of western left when the left came to power in Romania and they started the process of banning gay marriage. Therefore if the west losses the war Ukraine all of this will evidently be name of the game. Since in that case Russia is directly comming into the contact with entire central Europe and that will surely speed up the process discribled here.


As I wrote before when Trump did his America fists logic he neglected this part of the world and in a moment I had Russian banks taking over assets. They entered the retirement system. They took over good chunk of food productions. China also took some infrastructure like airports and made advertising boom. In the case that we didn't have pro western center right government in office at the time all of this would have tilt us into the eastern hemisphere. This idea that Communisim is over or that it is horrible is basically the position of you and you culture. But here, this far to the east it is pretty mainstream to have positive ideas about the whole ideology. As a matter of fact I now have Russia friendly president that started his campaign rallies with "Hello Commrades!" and he won. Plus when Pelosi came for a visit he said into the camera that she is nothingburger and that he will not meet her. As alternative he decided to have some fun on the beach, what shows nicely how much such person cares about liberalism. Last year Red Herring even asked me why the heck is my president advocating veto for Finland and Sweden NATO membership (what didn't happen because the center right pushed through the system their memberships).


Which is exactly why I am insisting on the difference between the leftists and liberals. Therefore if the easten EU fully goes into this direction the trend will surely continue in Germany and perhaps even further west. For some reason the media invented the term "populists" for certain political forces in Europe while many of them are basically none liberal leftists. Especially once we include those that are warped into Christian symbols. For example Orban is doing socialized healthcare, free college, help of the poor, help with getting your aparment ... and he hugs with my "hello comrafdes" president in from of the cameras. Therefore if the west looses the war in Ukraine there will sure be massive domino effect in Europe that will genuinely return the clock back. China is already all over the plce regading consumer goods and contruction work. Therefore this is the real game that is going on and the trend probably wouldn't skip Germany as well. Once the liberal left weakens there enough that should open the door for more old school forms of the left. Especially since most of the far right are basically just ex leftists and workers that basically lost their position to the globalist left (aka liberals). What will among other things make sure that the nations gets more round up as they are exchanging political power with center right. Therefore I don't see the end for the left in all this.


I know that this isn't quite what you were expacting as a answer but this is my honest answer/prediction if the trends continue. I deliberalty want to expose you to the picture of the world you aren't familiar with. Especially since you don't seem to realize what is at stake for you in Ukraine.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

The thing with Germany is that they put the bet on the wrong horse. They presumed that globalization is unstoppable process and that they are the ones that have to be the first in that process. The dream was that there will be fully open world and we will all get mixed. Therefore if you lead in globalization that should bring various economic benefits. But as we know in 2023 this isn't how the game works. Therefore now the globalization is rapidly falling apart as we are getting into new era of global blocks and divisions. What caused certain cultural shock in the western Europe since pretty much all paradigms collapsed. In a sense the system is coping pretty well if we consider the scale of the shock that came with the pandemic and mess in Ukraine. Since both hit the supply chains pretty hard.


Multiculturalism can work but it requires globalization to be happening all cross the globe. Because if it isn't then some will rebel on the basis of why their culture is the one that has to go. However even if multi-culturalism works that will in the end replace the original culture of the area. Therefore in the end all of this kinda depends on how exactly you define "it works". I am from eastern parts of EU that are much more socially conservative than western Europe and to me whole multi cultural thing never really felt right. The whole thing seem to be driven by corporate power that want's to artificially boost workforce numbers and make multicultural workforce that will have trouble stading for itself. Since the workers will be with so different cards in hands that they will have trouble standing even for their basic needs.


The problem here is that you and I are from so different parts of the world that we even use different definitions of the terms. In my opinion you are mixing liberalism with the left, since you have never known anything that is to the left of liberalism. In USA genuine leftism simply doesn't exist, and most of you go crazy even on mentioning someting totally basic such as socialized healthcare. In other words my Croatian leftists have just started fullscale war againt the green progressives that are the left as you know it. Plus the right is heavily supporting the left through media pressure and statements since they wan them gone. Genuine old school leftists think that LGBT is individualist ideology that in the end makes working class weak. They are against many EU mechanisms such as open trade over borders or Europe. They even openly smeared EU and it's unckecked liberalism in their last Christmas message in 2022. Plus they are rocking the place and they trying to crash progressives in the few strongholds that they have. Since that is the only thing that Progressives have and once that falls the place is basically clear of liberalism. Especially since centrists are alreeady dead and they are failing to gather more than 2% in polls. Therefore if progressives fall the only things that stay is a few various shades of right and liliberal left.


However why I am telling you this. It is because the tides are turning and thus I expect that in Germany as well you will probably see the rise of left that isn't liberal. As a matter of fact as global supply chains are braking under all pressures local production will become more important. While people that work in manufacturing are fairly unlikely to become liberal people in modern sense of the term. Liberalism came to Europe from the English speaking world and since that world is weakening by all available info (including your opinion), the odds are that we will see return to some past times and that almost surely wouldn't just pass next to Germany. Take a look at what just happened in Slovakia. Illiberal left won the elections againt the liberals and they will form the government with nationalists in order to have enough hands. I still remember the shock of western left when the left came to power in Romania and they started the process of banning gay marriage. Therefore if the west losses the war Ukraine all of this will evidently be name of the game. Since in that case Russia is directly comming into the contact with entire central Europe and that will surely speed up the process discribled here.


As I wrote before when Trump did his America fists logic he neglected this part of the world and in a moment I had Russian banks taking over assets. They entered the retirement system. They took over good chunk of food productions. China also took some infrastructure like airports and made advertising boom. In the case that we didn't have pro western center right government in office at the time all of this would have tilt us into the eastern hemisphere. This idea that Communisim is over or that it is horrible is basically the position of you and you culture. But here, this far to the east it is pretty mainstream to have positive ideas about the whole ideology. As a matter of fact I now have Russia friendly president that started his campaign rallies with "Hello Commrades!" and he won. Plus when Pelosi came for a visit he said into the camera that she is nothingburger and that he will not meet her. As alternative he decided to have some fun on the beach, what shows nicely how much such person cares about liberalism. Last year Red Herring even asked me why the heck is my president advocating veto for Finland and Sweden NATO membership (what didn't happen because the center right pushed through the system their memberships).


Which is exactly why I am insisting on the difference between the leftists and liberals. Therefore if the easten EU fully goes into this direction the trend will surely continue in Germany and perhaps even further west. For some reason the media invented the term "populists" for certain political forces in Europe while many of them are basically none liberal leftists. Especially once we include those that are warped into Christian symbols. For example Orban is doing socialized healthcare, free college, help of the poor, help with getting your aparment ... and he hugs with my "hello comrafdes" president in from of the cameras. Therefore if the west looses the war in Ukraine there will sure be massive domino effect in Europe that will genuinely return the clock back. China is already all over the plce regading consumer goods and contruction work. Therefore this is the real game that is going on and the trend probably wouldn't skip Germany as well. Once the liberal left weakens there enough that should open the door for more old school forms of the left. Especially since most of the far right are basically just ex leftists and workers that basically lost their position to the globalist left (aka liberals). What will among other things make sure that the nations gets more round up as they are exchanging political power with center right. Therefore I don't see the end for the left in all this.


I know that this isn't quite what you were expacting as a answer but this is my honest answer/prediction if the trends continue. I deliberalty want to expose you to the picture of the world you aren't familiar with. Especially since you don't seem to realize what is at stake for you in Ukraine.

With regard to the first bold:

I would define this as the opposite of works. Of course people from less developed countries would only ever flow en masse into more developed ones and not the reverse.

With regard to the rest:

I was unaware of the distinctly Eastern European difference between leftist and liberal and appreciate your explanation which you clearly took time to think through and write out.

The rise of the illiberal left as you call them seems to be a more natural political progression in your part of the world, and to be perfectly honest, if that's what the people want I have no problem with them getting it and all the consequences it entails. The west (more specifically America) has force fed liberalism as I understand it in your argument to huge swaths of the planet since the end of WWII, and it seems dare I say "normal" to revert back to more historic associations as our empire collapses. The East seems to have swallowed liberalism but not liked the taste without an imposition of that system from a larger global order. To that end if y'all want to be communist again I say have at it, see how it works out.

My position on Ukr isn't predicated on no second order affects occurring in Eastern Europe, even to your own country. I have no doubts about America's shrinking influence being filled with other actors. Given that our sphere of influence is shrinking we have to begin to think about prioritizing where to focus our influence if we are no longer capable of influencing everywhere at once. I suspect that the issues in Israel will siphon up much of our attention (given the country's salience in US politics), especially if that conflict draws out over time. As much as I would prefer Eastern Europe to continue to be more western in its disposition absent a strong American (or EU?) hand I'm not one to say its people shouldn't be allowed to determine what's best for themselves.

To the extent that these changes make life worse in Eastern Europe I'm sorry but that's as far as it extends. It's not my job as an American taxpayer to care about (and fund) everything everywhere always. Just like it's not your job to care about or send money to the fire victims in Maui Hawaii. It's felt like it's our job to fund everything everywhere for decades and decades with no material return on investment. You can only ask a people to do that for so long. That's a tall order to ask of a people in a country on an upward trajectory. While we had the post War boom years up to around the global financial crisis of '08 we seemed happy to oblige. After that questions began to arise. Forgive me for putting it in such blunt terms but what's in it for us? And I don't mean for our giant NGO's and global influence apparatus. What's in it for say a mechanic in Sandusky Ohio? What possible reason could he have for being more concerned about the geopolitical ramifications of Eastern Europe than say, his ability to buy a house or live in a safe neighborhood? If you think he can do both given the way things are going in America I assure you he cannot. Maybe his son fought in Iraq and was injured for nothing. No tangible American benefit could be derived from that sacrifice other than the satisfaction from fact that his son served the nation. There are generations of living Americans who have never lived in a world where that world didn't demand that we CARE.... About every thing and everyone except ourselves.

You can argue that that's selfish and I will proudly state "I don't care". All nations exist for the benefit of their populace. You can argue that such events would diminish America's stake in the world and I would say "OK". You can argue that such events will lead to an attack on America and I'll say "Prove it". You can argue that such events will harm global trade and I'll say "And force jobs back to America". You can argue it's our moral duty maintain this system which drains so much from us at the expense of our citizens and I'll say "No it isn't".

You seemed to do a great job explaining what's at stake for YOU w/ regards to Ukr and possible ramifications not me.

I appreciate your candor as always, and I hope you take this reply in honest way in which it was given.

 

[Virtual ghost]

With regard to the first bold:

I would define this as the opposite of works. Of course people from less developed countries would only ever flow en masse into more developed ones and not the reverse.

With regard to the rest:

I was unaware of the distinctly Eastern European difference between leftist and liberal and appreciate your explanation which you clearly took time to think through and write out.

The rise of the illiberal left as you call them seems to be a more natural political progression in your part of the world, and to be perfectly honest, if that's what the people want I have no problem with them getting it and all the consequences it entails. The west (more specifically America) has force fed liberalism as I understand it in your argument to huge swaths of the planet since the end of WWII, and it seems dare I say "normal" to revert back to more historic associations as our empire collapses. The East seems to have swallowed liberalism but not liked the taste without an imposition of that system from a larger global order. To that end if y'all want to be communist again I say have at it, see how it works out.

My position on Ukr isn't predicated on no second order affects occurring in Eastern Europe, even to your own country. I have no doubts about America's shrinking influence being filled with other actors. Given that our sphere of influence is shrinking we have to begin to think about prioritizing where to focus our influence if we are no longer capable of influencing everywhere at once. I suspect that the issues in Israel will siphon up much of our attention (given the country's salience in US politics), especially if that conflict draws out over time. As much as I would prefer Eastern Europe to continue to be more western in its disposition absent a strong American (or EU?) hand I'm not one to say its people shouldn't be allowed to determine what's best for themselves.

To the extent that these changes make life worse in Eastern Europe I'm sorry but that's as far as it extends. It's not my job as an American taxpayer to care about (and fund) everything everywhere always. Just like it's not your job to care about or send money to the fire victims in Maui Hawaii. It's felt like it's our job to fund everything everywhere for decades and decades with no material return on investment. You can only ask a people to do that for so long. That's a tall order to ask of a people in a country on an upward trajectory. While we had the post War boom years up to around the global financial crisis of '08 we seemed happy to oblige. After that questions began to arise. Forgive me for putting it in such blunt terms but what's in it for us? And I don't mean for our giant NGO's and global influence apparatus. What's in it for say a mechanic in Sandusky Ohio? What possible reason could he have for being more concerned about the geopolitical ramifications of Eastern Europe than say, his ability to buy a house or live in a safe neighborhood? If you think he can do both given the way things are going in America I assure you he cannot. Maybe his son fought in Iraq and was injured for nothing. No tangible American benefit could be derived from that sacrifice other than the satisfaction from fact that his son served the nation. There are generations of living Americans who have never lived in a world where that world didn't demand that we CARE.... About every thing and everyone except ourselves.

You can argue that that's selfish and I will proudly state "I don't care". All nations exist for the benefit of their populace. You can argue that such events would diminish America's stake in the world and I would say "OK". You can argue that such events will lead to an attack on America and I'll say "Prove it". You can argue that such events will harm global will harm global trade and I'll say "And force jobs back to America". You can argue it's our moral duty maintain this system which drains so much from us at the expense of our citizens and I'll say "No it isn't".

You seemed to do a great job explaining what's at stake for YOU w/ regards to Ukr and possible ramifications not me.

I appreciate your candor as always, and I hope you take this reply in honest way in which it was given.

I am very well aware of the fact that you guys didn't really pick your fights and now you have grown tired of everything. However I am not sure that you understand fully what the loss of US influence could mean (here and elsewhere). For example Nike already decided to close all shops where I live and that in the end lowers GDP in US itself. With lower US influence will local Coca Cola bottling plant continue to work ? We have our own beverages that are often pretty good and a few years ago mother company even had to bailout my local Coca Cola daughter company. What will happen to McDonald's ? You guys just don't seem to be aware of the fact that your lives have turn to hell mostly because your companies are getting overrun out there. When it comes to cell phone ads the Asians are already much louder than you ... etc etc.. Therefore if you retreat you will become average country with the debts of an empire ... and then you will collapse. Money printer can't really cover these big holes. Especially if in the retreat you lose petro Dollar.


Plus it can get even worse than that. What will happen if you lose influence in many countries and then people from those countries start to troll in mass under your election related videos ? What can obviously swig competitive election in a blink. What will you do then ? Cut you bigh tech out of those countries and collapse income of your big tech while someone else fils the void? Kinda the same is in UN, you could get awfully lonely in a room with 200 other sides, and that is usually bad for business however you turn it.

You are of course free to do whatever you want, but I am simply quite skeptical that your plan for the future will work for you, or the mentioned average Joe from Ohio.


All of this is exactly why I want EU to finally wake up. What happened to some degree with the war in Ukraine, but I am not sure that it is enough to keep things stable the further eastward you go. Since EU basically has same problem here, loss of influence that has severe political and economic consequences.




Slovakia’s kingmaker party only wants coalition with populist Fico

Plus this is ultra fresh and it very nicely shows that there is a difference between left and liberal. The two leftist parties decided to suspend all coalition talks with both liberals and conservatives. So instead they will go with one small nationalist party as a third partner, which in it's program is basically in the domain of light fascism. Also yesterday I saw my own leftist president giving the interview on the exact same place where main ideologue of the far right was doing it on that same day. What isn't all that surprising since they are flirting in the media about possible coalition (because elections are at the door). What in the end would create combination that is basically identical to the one that is setting shop in Slovakia. Plus in Germany both far right and far left just voted against Israel based on what I saw. What altogather points at the obvious conclusion. Which is that Communits and Fascists have realized that the whole western world order and it's institutions have grown so weak that they can actively toy with them and with combined power they can overrun them. What in the end only weakens that order and opens new holes.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Putin blames US for Israel-Hamas conflict
How predictable.


Europe struggles to present consistent messaging on Palestinian aid
How predictable.




Ukraine: Russia loses vote to rejoin UN Human Rights Council
This is one pretty good and fresh example of why you need strong international influence 24/7. Since othrwise votes like these will go in other direction and before you know it you will wake iup in the world that doesn't have anything to do with your values.




Israel: Biden calls Hamas terror attack 'sheer evil'

The coming Gaza hostage crisis

Ukraine isn’t blacklisting Huawei just yet

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

I am very well aware of the fact that you guys didn't really pick your fights and now you have grown tired of everything. However I am not sure that you understand fully what the loss of US influence could mean (here and elsewhere). For example Nike already decided to close all shops where I live and that in the end lowers GDP in US itself. With lower US influence will local Coca Cola bottling plant continue to work ? We have our own beverages that are often pretty good and a few years ago mother company even had to bailout my local Coca Cola daughter company. What will happen to McDonald's ? You guys just don't seem to be aware of the fact that your lives have turn to hell mostly because your companies are getting overrun out there. When it comes to cell phone ads the Asians are already much louder than you ... etc etc.. Therefore if you retreat you will become average country with the debts of an empire ... and then you will collapse. Money printer can't really cover these big holes. Especially if in the retreat you lose petro Dollar.


Plus it can get even worse than that. What will happen if you lose influence in many countries and then people from those countries start to troll in mass under your election related videos ? What can obviously swig competitive election in a blink. What will you do then ? Cut you bigh tech out of those countries and collapse income of your big tech while someone else fils the void? Kinda the same is in UN, you could get awfully lonely in a room with 200 other sides, and that is usually bad for business however you turn it.

You are of course free to do whatever you want, but I am simply quite skeptical that your plan for the future will work for you, or the mentioned average Joe from Ohio.


All of this is exactly why I want EU to finally wake up. What happened to some degree with the war in Ukraine, but I am not sure that it is enough to keep things stable the further eastward you go. Since EU basically has same problem here, loss of influence that has severe political and economic consequences.




Slovakia’s kingmaker party only wants coalition with populist Fico

Plus this is ultra fresh and it very nicely shows that there is a difference between left and liberal. The two leftist parties decided to suspend all coalition talks with both liberals and conservatives. So instead they will go with one small nationalist party as a third partner, which in it's program is basically in the domain of light fascism. Also yesterday I saw my own leftist president giving the interview on the exact same place where main ideologue of the far right was doing it on that same day. What isn't all that surprising since they are flirting in the media about possible coalition (because elections are at the door). What in the end would create combination that is basically identical to the one that is setting shop in Slovakia. Plus in Germany both far right and far left just voted against Israel based on what I saw. What altogather points at the obvious conclusion. Which is that Communits and Fascists have realized that the whole western world order and it's institutions have grown so weak that they can actively toy with them and with combined power they can overrun them. What in the end only weakens that order and opens new holes.

I'm supposed to care about the international profits of megacorps like Nike, McD's, and Coke returning to America, where they do nothing but pad our GDP and paper over the tremendous losses in the domestic labor market?

Our lives are hell because C suite execs at these companies aren't making more money than they are now? I already told you my opinion you don't have to sell it to me.

If you think but for Russia election shenanigans we wouldn't have gotten Trump I've got beach front property on the moon to sell you.

What goes for Coke, Mickey D's and Nike goes doubly for the bastards in the tech industry. Are you saying that by pulling back I'd decrease the property value in san fran by a $100 per square foot. Were do I sign up?

With the loss of the petro dollar do I get to break the backs of our oil mafia and kill the foreign policy and intel establishment that feeds off of it like a tick dragging us into conflicts the world over for the last however many decades? Please tell me more.

Would we get to be just another voice in the crowd at the UN (and not ALWAYS the center of attention), and remind everyone how much better everything was when we ran shit? Can't say I hate that either.

To be perfectly frank we wont ever be and average country even with the collapses that are coming, we have 330 million plus westerners that have demonstrated the largest capacity for technological advancement in human history since the manhattan project. I don't expect the diminished profits in our megacorps to change that. Hell if they lose enough money they might have to lessen their lobbying which captures regulation that strangles smaller more innovative competitors in the crib.

We have all the oil to run our country we will ever need, we are one of the largest food exporters on earth and surrounded 1000's of miles of water to both the east and west, and to the north and south we have weaker countries that are economically dependent on us. We have the most powerful navy on earth, notwithstanding the militaries diminished capacity of late, and the largest consumer market on the planet and navigable water ways making internal trade much easier.

The Global trade system and financial markets we developed feed all the worst political ills in our country, and I welcome a shakeup that changes all that. Our political class has grown so fat and lazy off the spoils of this system that they mostly just give lip service to giving a shit about our people at this point.

If we finally get to start having a conversation about what the US gov't can actually afford in the face of inflating the dollar to worthlessness, I welcome it.

I don't see the coming troubles as something that can be stopped by us flailing to keep up the sphere of influence we've had in decades past. I see them as inevitable and welcome (despite the fact that they may hurt me personally) insofar as they are the only thing that can break the back of our fucked up system. As long as the same old money flows to the same old pockets nothing will change here.

I say all this knowing however bad things get everywhere else they will be less bad here. We are well positioned to weather even strong storms.

I don't see our broken gerontocracy changing absent some fundamental shifts.

I have for a while accepted these shifts as inevitable and look at attempts to forestall them much like the musicians continuing to play on the sinking titanic.

Luckily I think US pulling back will force the EU to wake up one way or the other, so hopefully that goes well, or least in whichever way you hope it to.

I expect old grudges to re-ignite the world over in the wake of our withdrawal and am hearing worrying things about the goings on in Serbia lately.

What's coming is necessary for any hope of moving forward in this country. I don't see a second Trump term changing things and have long since disabused myself of allusion that we're one election away from fixing a nation so broken politically, culturally, socially and economically.

My only hope is that what comes is no worse than it needs to be to extract the required changes.

While I will always be right wing I'm under no illusion that should we capture the house, senate and white house that things will materially change as long as there is more money to be made in selling out the american voter than not.

I know this isn't the response you are looking for but hopefully it serves to clarify my position. Thanks for your time.

 

[Virtual ghost]

To be honest your words don't surprise me. This is position that is fairly common when you read sources from American right. The only difference is that this is written in more detail. I fully understand and even have sympathy for all of this since quality of life in US has really gone down over the years. It is just I don't see this logic working out. So my words were meant to be friendly advice, nothing more.


I guess we will just have wait and see what will happen. We are evidently at the crossroad of global history.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

To be honest your words don't surprise me. This is position that is fairly common when you read sources from American right. The only difference is that this is written in more detail. I fully understand and even have sympathy for all of this since quality of life in US has really gone down over the years. It is just I don't see this logic working out. So my words were meant to be friendly advice, nothing more.


I guess we will just have wait and see what will happen. We are evidently at the crossroad of global history.

I have greatly enjoyed our discussion and always appreciate conversations in good faith.

I hope none of what I've said here leads you to believe I have any animus for you personally.

I came of political age in the dawning days of the Global Financial Crisis and have never been able to shake my feelings that it was the beginning of the end, though they certainly subsided for a time. Having worked in finance and seeing all the jobs being taken by computer programs kind of killed optimism for me. My entire adult life has been seeing things get worse and worse everywhere.

We are slaves I think to those things which shape us in our formative years and mine were taken up with things getting worse. First the Columbine shooting, which led to my political awakening via gun rights which I wrote a paper about in 8th grade. Then 9/11 which broke my world and led to my fervent support of both wars initially which led to ultimate heartbreak, first in the uselessness of the Iraq war, and then much later in the way we just abandoned Afg. We should have gotten out of Afg but the way we did was just a stab in the back to our vets and especially the Afganis who supported us like the translators and their families who we left to die at the hands of taliban firing squads. Then 2008 when I graduated college and everyone was like there's no more jobs so everyone better stay in school and take the 5th senior year or go get a masters. Then Obama who I actually fucking voted for the first time thinking that he would do something good (one of the dumber things I've ever done and I've done some dumb shit). I learned that lesson quick and went back to GOP politics even working on the hill an lobbying for a time. Then 2016 were I vociferously supported Marco Rubio who I volunteered on the senate campaign of in 2010, got slammed in the debates by Trump and I realized I had been part of we think we're smarter than the voters part of the Republican party they were rebelling against shaking my world yet again.

I got sit through his presidency where genuinely solid policy happened while he burned his non existent political capital by being himself. Which was interesting insofar as he took it to the establishment but terrible insofar as he did it in such a stupid way that he has basically frozen politics with partisanship (which it already largely was but he cranked that bitch to 11). I then got to watch the US establishment in an effort to fight him, turn talking about Republicans being nazi's into a daily occurrence. The pandemic and George Floyd were just icing on that particular cake.

He then got beat by the oldest dude ever promising a return to normalcy, where all the internet censorship started in a effort to stop a Trump second term turned into an all out war against right leaning thought of all kinds online. Which has felt and continues to feel like the vanguard in an effort to criminalize political dissent, something which Trumps indictment hasn't done much to quell. Worse the indictment basically insured the base would be angry enough to circle the wagons around Trump and freeze out any other candidates. Though given how things have gone I'm not sure DeSantis had the charisma to make it work either way. Worst of all those indictments feel like a political ploy to ensure Trumps nomination.

The weirdest thing at this moment is I'm not sure he loses in '24, something I was much more sure of months ago. We'll see how RFK jr running as an independent shakes itself out and splits the vote (if it even does much).

Back to the point, we then got inflation and interest rate hikes not seen since the 70's. I used to go out to eat much more frequently but now I shop at costco and cook make all my food for the week in the crock pot (which is much more healthy, but more importantly waaaaaayyyyy cheaper). We've drained the strategic petroleum reserve to help keep Biden's polling out of the total gutter. We have a border crisis so bad even Biden himself approved working on the border wall again. We have crime creeping back towards highs not seen since the 90's. Labor market numbers made up mostly of people getting second jobs, and the number of people out of the labor force that if included would have our unemployment rate in the 6% range. Housing so unaffordable that many millenials and almost all zoomers have given up on the dream of home ownership in America.

And then we've got Ukraine which as of Sept we've given $113 billion to. Which would make up a 7th of our national defense budget. And where we haven't seen meaningful action since Rus gave up on Kharkiv. And now Israel who will ask for who knows how much in the coming months and years.

Given all of that you may begin to see how the goings on in Ukraine and funding wars on the other side of the world is a bitter pill to swallow especially given our recent experience in the Middle East and in light of our domestic issues.

Since you gave me a little bit of where your coming from I thought it would make sense to explain the impetus behind my positions.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Especially since most of the far right are basically just ex leftists and workers that basically lost their position to the globalist left (aka liberals).

Interesting. This sounds a little like some of the Trump voters in the U.S. The number of people who switched from Obama to Trump isn't insignificant. I even know a few people like this.

I think it would be worth delving into what is going on with this, but the general impression I get in the U.S is that is that people think it's something not worth exploring. I don't know why (for certain, anyway) they seem so disinterested in it.

Side note: I find the constant shifts in ideas about America's role around the global and attitudes towards other countries to be very exhausting and confusing. In 2014, nobody much cared about Russia was doing in the Crimea, and I may have said something condemning Russia or something like that (at the very least I remember thinking it was messed up) and gotten crickets. I also took the bold step of being anti-ISIS, and there were crickets, and it seemed like people thought this was tantamount to support for U.S. imperialism. Nowadays, I'll bet many of these people have placed Ukrainian flags on their social media profiles at some point.

I can't even explain why stuff like this happens (though I'd love to know), I just know that I find it personally draining. How on Earth can I pick a point of view, when nobody else can? I know I could do do a lot of research and find a position that way. This makes sense to me, except nobody will ever read the same research if I disagree and will just accuse me of spreading propaganda of one type or another without bothering to look at links or citations.

Maybe it's because I haven't reading enough news and if I read more of it, we'd all be on the same page?

In short, idk.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I have greatly enjoyed our discussion and always appreciate conversations in good faith.

I hope none of what I've said here leads you to believe I have any animus for you personally.

I came of political age in the dawning days of the Global Financial Crisis and have never been able to shake my feelings that it was the beginning of the end, though they certainly subsided for a time. Having worked in finance and seeing all the jobs being taken by computer programs kind of killed optimism for me. My entire adult life has been seeing things get worse and worse everywhere.

We are slaves I think to those things which shape us in our formative years and mine were taken up with things getting worse. First the Columbine shooting, which led to my political awakening via gun rights which I wrote a paper about in 8th grade. Then 9/11 which broke my world and led to my fervent support of both wars initially which led to ultimate heartbreak, first in the uselessness of the Iraq war, and then much later in the way we just abandoned Afg. We should have gotten out of Afg but the way we did was just a stab in the back to our vets and especially the Afganis who supported us like the translators and their families who we left to die at the hands of taliban firing squads. Then 2008 when I graduated college and everyone was like there's no more jobs so everyone better stay in school and take the 5th senior year or go get a masters. Then Obama who I actually fucking voted for the first time thinking that he would do something good (one of the dumber things I've ever done and I've done some dumb shit). I learned that lesson quick and went back to GOP politics even working on the hill an lobbying for a time. Then 2016 were I vociferously supported Marco Rubio who I volunteered on the senate campaign of in 2010, got slammed in the debates by Trump and I realized I had been part of we think we're smarter than the voters part of the Republican party they were rebelling against shaking my world yet again.

I got sit through his presidency where genuinely solid policy happened while he burned his non existent political capital by being himself. Which was interesting insofar as he took it to the establishment but terrible insofar as he did it in such a stupid way that he has basically frozen politics with partisanship (which it already largely was but he cranked that bitch to 11). I then got to watch the US establishment in an effort to fight him, turn talking about Republicans being nazi's into a daily occurrence. The pandemic and George Floyd were just icing on that particular cake.

He then got beat by the oldest dude ever promising a return to normalcy, where all the internet censorship started in a effort to stop a Trump second term turned into an all out war against right leaning thought of all kinds online. Which has felt and continues to feel like the vanguard in an effort to criminalize political dissent, something which Trumps indictment hasn't done much to quell. Worse the indictment basically insured the base would be angry enough to circle the wagons around Trump and freeze out any other candidates. Though given how things have gone I'm not sure DeSantis had the charisma to make it work either way. Worst of all those indictments feel like a political ploy to ensure Trumps nomination.

The weirdest thing at this moment is I'm not sure he loses in '24, something I was much more sure of months ago. We'll see how RFK jr running as an independent shakes itself out and splits the vote (if it even does much).

Back to the point, we then got inflation and interest rate hikes not seen since the 70's. I used to go out to eat much more frequently but now I shop at costco and cook make all my food for the week in the crock pot (which is much more healthy, but more importantly waaaaaayyyyy cheaper). We've drained the strategic petroleum reserve to help keep Biden's polling out of the total gutter. We have a border crisis so bad even Biden himself approved working on the border wall again. We have crime creeping back towards highs not seen since the 90's. Labor market numbers made up mostly of people getting second jobs, and the number of people out of the labor force that if included would have our unemployment rate in the 6% range. Housing so unaffordable that many millenials and almost all zoomers have given up on the dream of home ownership in America.

And then we've got Ukraine which as of Sept we've given $113 billion to. Which would make up a 7th of our national defense budget. And where we haven't seen meaningful action since Rus gave up on Kharkiv. And now Israel who will ask for who knows how much in the coming months and years.

Given all of that you may begin to see how the goings on in Ukraine and funding wars on the other side of the world is a bitter pill to swallow especially given our recent experience in the Middle East and in light of our domestic issues.

Since you gave me a little bit of where your coming from I thought it would make sense to explain the impetus behind my positions.

No hard feelings, really.
I remember your typology code so I know what to expect. Plus I pay close attention to blue and red US media, so I know what is going on.
Also we are both in the late 30s if I remember correctly, so we kinda have the same timeline of memory. What is kinda why I am not too judging, especially since I am from politically messed up environment myself. The only thing where I have "advantage" is that my general trend is going up as westernization is reforming the place. Therefore public debt is actually falling for years at this point, while I still have various benefits and safe home. So I probably have better night sleep than you on most nights. However all of that still comes with the twist since there is constantly this 24/7 hybrid threat that is trying over and over to pull us back into the days that were before the fall of Berlin wall. These people just don't want to give up. Which is kinda why I am so pro Ukraine, since they are actually shooting these people and hopefully they will brake the whole machine down. Since it is evident that this has to be sorted with force. Over the decades I got so much crap due to all this that I am not even feeling sorry for saying "they just have to go to the other world".


Therefore in this regard I am not saying that you should support Ukraine because of me but because of yourself. After all this is the same circle of people that over the last 30 years completely robbed US through unfair trade, while the start of the pandemic was never really explained. What in the end caused pretty much all of the instability that you have just numbered one by one. Plus from experience I can tell you that they just wouldn't give up. "You do your thing and I will do my thing" just isn't really in their mindset. We are simply dealing with too monolithic system that this can really happen.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Interesting. This sounds a little like some of the Trump voters in the U.S. The number of people who switched from Obama to Trump isn't insignificant. I even know a few people like this.

I think it would be worth delving into what is going on with this, but the general impression I get in the U.S is that is that people think it's something not worth exploring. I don't know why (for certain, anyway) they seem so disinterested in it.

Of course that it sounds a lot like that. This is all textbook example of "desperate times, desperate measures".
This is kinda why I said that I find current political climate in US absurd. Since this is basically plenty of people grabbing for the straws that are fighting with plenty of other people grabbing for the straws. Therefore there really is no need for this level of hate. Especially since that really prevents making solutions. Since solutions require clarity that drama can instantly disperse.

 

[Virtual ghost]