I hope I'm wrong and the analysis is much more solid (I'd have no way to tell there), but this feels familiar. I think people should avoid getting too complacent and overconfident, which is why I'm voicing this.
"Trump will never win; the mainstream Republicans will be so horrified by his lack of decorum, avoidance of norms, and shocking behavior they will flock to Hillary."
By the way this is one reason why I'm sick of hearing about these mainstream Republicans and feel bad for their plight. These people consistently don't do the right thing and we've seen this for decades. Why am I still supposed to feel empathy for them?
You should never say never, of course.
However, the situation in Germany is a little different from some other European countries and very different from the US. Culture is a major factor. Some people would point to lessons learned from history, but I wouldn't want to rely on that and don't expect you to do that. So let me explain.
The key group in a shift towards far right authoritarianism, in my understanding, is the center-right. If they fall, the country falls. In 1933 the center-right fell. In the US it seems to be barely existing anymore. In Germany - so far - the vast majority of moderate conservatives (CDU/CSU) would rather not govern than govern with the far-right. That is still a relatively broad consensus and that is pretty much the firewall of our democracy right now. But even if they'd form a coalition somewhere on a regional level, they'd likely be moderated by the dominate partner, the center-right CDU.
Another important thing to consider is that while the number of AfD voters regularly swings between 10 and just under 20% in the country as a whole (always less in the West and more in the East, but the East only makes up one fifth of the population) those swing voters aren't hardcore supporters but rather the frustrated, subjectively disenfrenchised rural poor, etc who grasp at straws. Protest votes in hard times.
There is a wellknown academic study, or rather a survey, that has been done every two years for almost two decades now called the Autoritarismus-Studie of the University of Leipzig. It researches to what degree people in Germany agree with certain political statements to test for authoritarianism, xenophobia, etc. I usually look to that study to know where we stand as a country:
The bad news is that around a quarter of the population agrees with xenophobic statements (migrants come here to benefit from our welfare system, etc) and one in five has chauvinistic views (our culture is the greatest, etc).
But antisemitism has decreased to under 5% (which roughly coincides with the number of Muslims, might be a coincidence or not).
Under 4% thinks positively of a strong-man/authoritarian government.
Only a little over 3% have social darwinistic views.
Under 3% play down the evils of the Third Reich.
(These are the numbers from 2018 but I just saw that the report for 2022 says that those
numbers keep declining. The extremists are getting fewer but at the same time more radical)
People with a "closed, right-wing extremist world view" in 2018 (I don't have the most recent numbers):
6% in the country as a whole, 5.4% in the West and 8.5 in the East. The historical trend over these last two decades has been for things to get better, i.e. for numbers to be mildly improving year over year.
Now, obviously Covid, the global rise of rightwing authoritarianism, conspiracy theories and general decline of liberal democracy, the war in Ukraine and climate change as well as the energy crises and inflation have all contributed to increasing the number of discontents. And since Germany is at its heart of hearts a center-right country that only occasionally votes in a center-left government to let in some fresh air and get some reforms done that the next conservative government can then benefit from in years of inertia until it's time again for some change and we are currently under a center-left government the current government is getting a lot of headwind both from the media and from the general population. People are uneasy with or even pissed off by the changes taking place in society and the world at large and they blame the left.
It is important to keep a few things in mind, even in case of a swing to the right:
- religion plays next to no role in German politics (America is an outlier in the Western world in that regard)
- Nobody except for the AfD doubts human made climate change and the urgent need for climate action. The debate is more about how to do it and how to distribute the social and economic costs fairly
- The center-right (which is overall much stronger than the far-right) has no intention of turning back the time or rolling back rights. They are just putting their feet on the brakes all the time to slow down progress, but not to reverse it.
Overall, everybody except maybe for a few AfD nuts (and even they are divided and diverse) agrees that:
- religion has no role to play in public life
- climate change is real and needs to be counteracted
- science is real, duh!
- gays, trans people and other sexual minorities should not have fewer rights than they currently have
- abortion is and will remain legal, it's not really up for debate
- religious minorities are part of society and welcome as long as they obey the laws (regarding child marriage, animal slaughter, etc)
- the death penalty has been abolished since the end of WW2 and nobody wants to bring it back (just putting this here as a reminder that the US is the only Western democracy to execute human beings)
- the gap between rich and poor is smaller than in the US and we want to keep it that way (by means of redistribution, if necessary) -> ordoliberalism/social market
- schools are there to deliver a free, science-based education to everybody and should not be censored in their reading material (oh, and by the way nobody plans to change the fact that universities are tuition-free). Children have a right to education and sometimes have to be protected from their own parents, so homeschooling is not an option.
We obviously have our very own culture war but it is mainly about
a) to what degree we should adopt American "woke" discourse and if it fits our social and cultural context
b) how and to what degree should migrants adjust to the host culture and to what degree does the host culture have to adjust to them (and, above all, the centuries old question: "who is German?" because for historical reasons German identity is a bit complex and more based on language and culture than on citizenship)
c) to what degree can people be forced to do the right thing or be nice and considerate to others? Do I feel under pressure to change myself or even offended when other people eat vegan, use gender neutral language, etc?
And one final good news (of sorts):
Germany is an aging society with a low birth rate and a demographic similar to Japan. That means that it is a gerontocracy, a country ruled by old people where nothing gets passed without the approval of the old. The far-right is relatively unpopular with the old and the young and mainly a thing for middle aged men. These
old people are structurally conservative and want change to be slow and gentle, but they do not attempt to turn back the time and above all, the have no revolutionary spirit in them, wanting to see the world burn like some Trump supporters. Fascism is revolutionary, not conservative (in the sense of preserving what is there). Especially in a country where structures have grown over generations and many institutions and issues are interlinked in highly complex ways (and every law, order or regulation is the result of years of negotiations between various interest groups and closely linked to some other rule somewhere else) drastic social or political change is highly unlikely. Germany is a very slowmoving heavy ship. The motherland of compromise and slow but constant progress.
