Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Time to join NATO? Moldova eyes joining ‘a larger alliance’

 

[The Cat]

Russia should consider selling out and writing a book: "how to boost Nato's membership for dummies." A complete idiot's guide to boosting Nato's membership in less than three years... I'll bet there's even a market for it...

 

[Virtual ghost]

Spain: Thousands stage anti-government protest in Madrid

The polls are saying that center right-far right coalition will win upcoming elections.



Plus as I predicted, far right now leads the polls in Austria. Also in Finland just months before general elections far right is starting to come second behind center right. Also from what I seen elections in Berlin should see center right in the first place. I mean the war on the continent got many people really scared and now there is plenty of "back to basics".

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia should consider selling out and writing a book: "how to boost Nato's membership for dummies." A complete idiot's guide to boosting Nato's membership in less than three years... I'll bet there's even a market for it...

But objectively I can't blame those countries. NATO is basically the only real insurance that Russia is not going to physically toy with you. When you come to this part of the world you can feel that there is a bear just next door. Since many things revolve around that fact.

 

[The Cat]

But objectively I can't blame those countries. NATO is basically the only real insurance that Russia is not going to physically toy with you. When you come to this part of the world you can feel that there is a bear just next door. Since many things revolve around that fact.

Oh for sure. I'm just legitimately surprised that they're not trying to say this was their whole plan all along, because like...how could this not be what they were expecting? Historically there is precident to not be surprised...are they that much a victim of their own propaganda? The GOP has done that here and we're gonna live that clown show for two years, but ffs what did they think would happen?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Oh for sure. I'm just legitimately surprised that they're not trying to say this was their whole plan all along, because like...how could this not be what they were expecting? Historically there is precident to not be surprised...are they that much a victim of their own propaganda? The GOP has done that here and we're gonna live that clown show for two years, but ffs what did they think would happen?

I am 99% sure that they thought to take the whole of small Moldova once they overrun Ukraine in 2 weeks. Which is basically just one big enclave between Ukraine and Romania. Plus it is ex USSR territory that already has separatist region and show ready to go. However they got stuck in Ukraine and that is probably going to be all she wrote in this topic. The main force is probably not going to come even close to Moldova. However due to the future issues I would still take Moldova into NATO. Especially if you take Ukraine into EU/NATO.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Brazil's Lula replaces army chief in aftermath of riots

RT France closes after EU sanctions, Moscow vows retaliation

How Bulgaria secretly armed Ukraine

 

[The Cat]

I am 99% sure that they thought to take the whole of small Moldova once they overrun Ukraine in 2 weeks. Which is basically just one big enclave between Ukraine and Romania. Plus it is ex USSR territory that already has separatist region and show ready to go. However they got stuck in Ukraine and that is probably going to be all she wrote in this topic. The main force is probably not going to come even close to Moldova. However due to the future issues I would still take Moldova into NATO. Especially if you take Ukraine into EU/NATO.

the best laid plans of mice and men do often go awry don't they?

 

[Virtual ghost]

the best laid plans of mice and men do often go awry don't they?

It seems like it. But we have to be honest here, in the case that they played the first days of the war smarter it is possible that they could have won. What would restore USSR border in the region. However the common people didn't play along and that bought the time for western help to arrive ... and from that point it was swimming up the river.

 

[The Cat]

It seems like it. But we have to be honest here, in the case that they played the first days of the war smarter it is possible that they could have won. What would restore USSR border in the region. However the common people didn't play along and that bought the time for western help to arrive ... and from that point it was swimming up the river.

One really does wonder how things would look today if Ukraine hadnt showed the national stage they could actually maybe make a fight of it if not win so early in the operation

 

[Virtual ghost]

One really does wonder how things would look today if Ukraine hadnt showed the national stage they could actually maybe make a fight of it if not win so early in the operation

I think that I already answered this one, the show wouldn't stop here.

One of the main reasons why I was sure he will actually invade is that with this victory Russia and Hungary would become neighbors. What means that Orban would stop listening the west completely. Plus over his territory Russia would get direct connection to Russian allies all over Balkans, that are still very pro Russian. Also with this Romania and Bulgaria would then be mostly cut off from the rest, and with already Russia friendly politics all over those countries. Therefore it is possible that the current system there would fall apart. Plus Turkey would also stop listening the west. Slovakia could possibly do the same. While all the countries in the Middle east and Africa that depend on Ukraine's agriculture would probably tilt towards Russia for the most part. Plus maybe even China would dare to make a move somewhere. Therefore overall this would be a complete geopolitical disaster for the west. Which is why it simply had to react to this in a way it did, the line simply had to hold. Otherwise the damage would be just too large.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Slovakia polling average

I am just looking polling average for Slovakia since they have to go to snap elections soon. And numbers are a disaster.


The first two places are going to reformed Communists. The old Orban's friends from fighting immigration and EU law. Plus they don't mind corruption, mafia stuff or killing journalists. Don't fall for the Social democracy title here , since in the 90s basically all Communists across the region declared themselves Social democrats. But many didn't do real democratic transformation. That is already over a third of vote, 36%.


Then come progressives with only 12%

After that is Republic - populist nationalist party with 8%

Then "We are the family" - far right based on family values 7%

Then comes collapsed center right 7%

Then crashed conservatives with 7%

Then christian center right party with 6%

Then national(ist) party with 4%

Then another center right with 3%

Then openly fascist party 2%

.....


I mean you get the point.
If Ukraine would fall countries like these would quickly connect with their new/old neighbor.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Poland ready to build ‘smaller coalition’ to send tanks to Ukraine without Germany


Yeah, to the people that aren't just next door it simply isn't clear how bad this is in practice, and what are actual consequences. Politics of western Europe has evidently proven that it isn't rally mentally ready for this "show".

 

[Virtual ghost]

Quran-burning in Sweden exacerbates tensions with Turkey over NATO bid

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is basically what I am saying for years. Brexit is a disaster that needed to happen in order to wake up the people.

 

[Virtual ghost]

German government faces growing rift over Scholz’s reluctance to send Ukraine tanks
This looks more like the politics of Italy than Germany. Crashing the coalition government probably wouldn't happen but it isn't truly impossible.


Erdoğan says Turkey won’t support Sweden’s NATO bid
Perhaps, but he has decent odds to lose elections. What would change everything in that regard.




Estonia and Latvia remove Russian ambassadors as tensions rise

‘This is not a moment to slow down:’ U.S. says Ukraine making new gains

The tensions are rising.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Europe’s conservatives want a piece of Giorgia Meloni

New era, new paradigms.
It seems that EPP as a center right block and the biggest block came to conclusion that they are losing too many votes to those that are to the right of them. Therefore they have to find replacement seats for the left that is in the current coalition, so that they can move rightward. Plus since there is crisis on the continent the vote will probably shift to the right when compared to what it was the last time in elections for the EU parliament. Stuff like mass migration seem to be unpopular with many across the political spectrum and this coalition kinda solves that. I mean the very idea that this pact is discussed so openly is a big shift on itself. Not to mention that the two blocks are already governing in many member states (with more likely to come based on polls) . We are in the era of tectonic shifts and this pact is probably one of the shifts that will come out of all this. Uncontrolled globalization kinda made it possible that everything can get along with anything. But that era is evidently coming to an end with recent events. Therefore the right will try to find ways to consolidate. Plus one clarification of the article: In Europe Libertarian right is called Liberals.

 

[Red Herring]

German government faces growing rift over Scholz’s reluctance to send Ukraine tanks
This looks more like the politics of Italy than Germany. Crashing the coalition government probably wouldn't happen but it isn't truly impossible.

Breaking News: Scholz Approves Delivery of Leopards
(New defense secretary) Pistorius: "We'll never get away with this" Scholz: "I know, but it buys us some time"


(It's even a Leopard 2! )


The key phrase in the Politico article is this one towards the end:

However, the ruling parties have so far refrained from siding with the opposition — and there’s no sign that they’re willing to do so now, despite the growing discontent.