Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

The Council of the European Union just announced cuts in financial support for Hungary (remarkably not because of deficits in democratic and state-of-law standards but because of accusations of corruption). There's also elections in Poland next year and it looks like Visegrád is going to be a bit less of a constant pain in the posterior for the rest of the EU. Here's hoping!

Yes, towards the numbers right now that should happen. However it is still very close and there are even more radical parties that could over PiS a coalition. One year is a long way when there is a difference of just a few percent. Not to mention electoral map shenanigan that exist in Poland.



However what is you take on the story that is now totally dominant ?



Metsola vows to launch probe into Qatar corruption scandal

EU Parliament ‘under attack’ as Qatar corruption scandal grows

A few bad apples or a whole rotten barrel? Brussels wrestles with corruption scandal

EU Parliament removes VP status from Eva Kaili

Eva Kaili dismisses corruption allegations amid Qatar probe

EU standards chief calls for tougher lobbying rules amid Qatar scandal


Etc.
There seems to be a complete media frenzy over this story.

 

[Red Herring]

Oh, and while the wast majority of Germans is relieved Trump is more or less a thing of the past they are waking up to the fact that the Biden administration is about as hostile towards Europe as the previous one, just with a friendlier, more civilized face. America is perceived to wage economic war on Germany and Europe as a whole.

Yes, towards the numbers right now that should happen. However it is still very close and there are even more radical parties that could over PiS a coalition. One year is a long way when there is a difference of just a few percent. Not to mention electoral map shenanigan that exist in Poland.

Yeah, it was just an intuition of a general trend that the pro-Russian and anti-EU cluster is weakening. I'm also aware that basically all parties of importance in Poland are conservative by the standards of my own country. I'd still prefer the PO over PiS as the much lesser evil.

However what is you take on the story that is now totally dominant ?



Metsola vows to launch probe into Qatar corruption scandal

EU Parliament ‘under attack’ as Qatar corruption scandal grows

A few bad apples or a whole rotten barrel? Brussels wrestles with corruption scandal

EU Parliament removes VP status from Eva Kaili

Eva Kaili dismisses corruption allegations amid Qatar probe

EU standards chief calls for tougher lobbying rules amid Qatar scandal


Etc.
There seems to be a complete media frenzy over this story.

I don't have much of an opinion or a take on this, sorry, but am obviously aware of this unfolding right now. I consider myself neither naive nor a cynic, so I'm aware that corruption exists but don't expect it or suggest it until proven guilty. In this case it does looks bad. Not surprised the Qataris bribed people, just a little cvoncerned it went up to such a high level.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Oh, and while the wast majority of Germans is relieved Trump is more or less a thing of the past they are waking up to the fact that the Biden administration is about as hostile towards Europe as the previous one, just with a friendlier, more civilized face. America is perceived to wage economic war on Germany and Europe as a whole.

Yeah, but some of us are telling you Germans and similar nations for years that this world is basically free for all. What means that there are only partners and interests for the most part. What means that EU has to be able to stand on it's own feet. What Germany always rejects with paranoia that is coming from it's history. Also for years it was being said that the story about USSR isn't over and that the mess will eventually brake out. What eventually indeed happened. Which is why it is extra important that EU consolidates as much as possible. What also includes letting in some smaller nations that are near the union. Which are being pointlessly given promises that wouldn't happen and that only fuels radicals for years and everything become a mess. Just take a look at current climate in Romania and Bulgaria over them being rejected in one important issue. It will literally take years to fully clean up that. While we just don't have the luxury or time to take it slow and be just about everyone's friend. We live in multi-polar world and we should act like it. In my opinion this scandal that is just going on in EU parliament is textbook example of this naive approach. Where our top politicians are taking money from abroad because we should all be friends and therefore we shouldn't rise tensions with anyone. Globalization got flushed down the toilet this year and we should act accordingly. Therefore ether we start to play cards in a more survivalist fashion or we will probably be overwhelmed by reality of the world.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Just something random.

 

[Red Herring]

https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/14...or-insulting-officials-ahead-of-2023-election

The mayor of Istanbul has been jailed for "insulting" officials in a controversial trial ahead of next year's elections.

Ekrem İmamoğlu was convicted of "insulting" members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council and sentenced to two years and seven months in prison.

The Turkish court also imposed a political ban that prevents him from standing for election over the same period.

Critics have slammed the trial as an attempt to eliminate a key opponent of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan before the presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2023.

The 52-year-old mayor, who belongs to the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), is expected to appeal the court's ruling.

Well, that's one way of getting rid of a political opponent...

 

[Virtual ghost]

Poll of the polls

I suppose it is time for another blood picture.
However it needs to be said that in Europe right doesn't always have this libertarian economic element. But it often has elements that in US are known as statism,



Austria - Far right is getting to the first place. In the case of snap elections it should be possible to make totally right wing coalition government.

Belgium - Two top parties are far right, stronger is growing further.

Bulgaria - Center right parties have a lead, far right is showing some of the strongest numbers thus far. President is kinda problematic person.

Switzerland - right leads

Cyprus - no data

Czech republic - big government conservative that is ex general should become president. The PM and ministers are already evidently to the right.

Germany - center right in the clear lead. Far right at one of it's peaks. Center right, far right, libertarian government is possible regarding the numbers.

Denmark - numbers are to the left. However that is because policies have moved somewhat right. Therefore voters aren't shifting that much.

Estonia - Far right at historic high

Spain - Center right in combination with far right should win the upcoming elections.

Finland - Center right leads, far right almost second. Totally right coalition should be possible.

France - Macron unpopular, center right is moving to the right in order to take some voters back form far right. General social climate - right

Greece - center right leads. There is the system that winner gets 50 extra seats.

Croatia - center right and far right have almost double the numbers of the left. This is no longer a swing state.

Hungary - Orban dominates.

Ireland - left wing nationalists lead.

Italy - Nationalistic Meloni in very firm lead. If she manages to govern in just half decent fashion she has a pretty bright future.

Lithuania - confusing and unclear picture.

Luxembourg - no data

Latvia - the right and rural peasant party lead

Malta - the parties are too local to judge

Netherlands - 2nd, 3rd, 4rd party are "anti system parties (half of the vote).

Norway - huge surge of center right

Poland - far right parties are few percent form beating center right and their small partners

Portugal - Center left falls much faster than center right, far right is third, libertarians are forth.

Romania - domination of left wing nationalist, center right second and growing, far right third place

Sweden - Center right, far right, libertarian coalition just took over

Slovenia - Centrists dominate, left basically imploded as a result. Center right is firmly second.

Slovakia - reformed communists are two top parties,

UK - story for itself at this point



Therefore the general trend is fairly obvious. Which is because there are tectonic shifts.

1. War just next door.

2. Far right changed their story, they moved leftward economically. They also started saying that they want to reform EU to their image and family values instead of crashing it. What would in practice crash the economy completely. What in the end made them much more electable. Especially in rural areas.

3. Center right realize that in many places far right is their much more natural ally than the center or left. Especially now when the anti-EU element has quite down.
Plus they now attract many scared people that don't want any kind of extremists.

4. The left kinda gave up on the whole "pro working class" idea. Plus they are often either pretty static or ideological on some topics. Which many people don't want to see implemented.


Therefore at this rate it is safe to say that we could see right wing EU. The next elections for EU parliament will probably be a pretty big show with high tension.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Czech Republic — 2023 presidential election

I presume you aren't paying too much attention to this but there is a presidential election in Czech republic next month. In other words this should be pretty easy win for Pavel. Pro western candidate that should win over Babis (Russia friendly and almost proven corrupt person, that also owns billions and it is quite rich). While Pavle is retired general that was involved in NATO. The thing is that for many years the seat of Czech president even if now too powerful was pretty Russia friendly and generally disruptive. Therefore now it seems that this hole will be solved.

Perhaps I spoke too soon since Nerudova exploded in support.
She seems to be pro western and academic center right candidate.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Kephalos]

Antezza, Arianna, André Frank, Pascal Frank, Lukas Franz, Ivan Kharitonov, Bharath Kumar, Ekaterina Rebinskaya, and Christoph Trebesch. The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?. No. 2218. KIEL working paper, 2022.

This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. This sixth version covers government commitments made between January 24 and August 3, 2022 and has a new detailed overview on weapon deliveries. We track support by 40 governments, including all G7 and European Union member countries, plus by EU institutions (thus including 41 donors). Private donations and aid through non-governmental organizations are not included due to a lack of systematic data, but we do show estimates on government costs of hosting Ukrainian refugees. To value in-kind support like military equipment or foodstuff, we rely on government statements as well as own calculations using market prices. We find significant differences in the scale of support across countries, both in absolute terms and as percent of donor country GDP. In billions of Euros, by far the largest bilateral supporter of Ukraine is the United States, followed by the EU institutions and the United Kingdom. In percent of donor GDP, Eastern European countries stand out as particularly generous, and this is even more so once we account for refugee costs. In the past months (June and July), new commitments have fallen notably, thus further widening the gap between what Ukraine demands and the foreign aid it receives.

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid transferred by governments to Ukraine since January 24, 2022.

www.ifw-kiel.de

Angela Stent. Putin's World: Russia against the West and with the Rest. Hachette UK, 2019.
Angela Stent. The West vs. the Rest: Welcome to the 21st-century Cold War. Foreign Policy, 2022.
Angela Stent. Vladimir Putin's Post-West Disorder. Institut Montaigne, 2022.

 

[The Cat]

 

[JAVO]

It's all over for Russia, folks. They shot down an alien craft.

Russia says it shot down a UFO

The governor of the southern Russian region of Rostov said that a small object was shot down on Tuesday.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Virtual ghost]

Strategic analysis.

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU and NATO vow to expand cooperation

EU and NATO sign joint call for cooperation amid Ukraine war


This is textbook example of putting democracies in one block. So that their impact is summed and more in sync.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU leaders fire warning shots at TikTok over privacy

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map


How the situation looks in detail.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Armenia says it will not host Russian-led military drill

 

[Red Herring]

Since energy security was a topic of debate on here a while back and some folks predicted Germans would be freezing to death, have power blackouts and general armageddon taking place, here's what the situation currently looks like:

- The national gas reserves are still 91.1% full and keep increasing. It is near impossible for the predicted shortage scenarios to take place this winter. In fact, the government has started to sell some of its gas because it bought too much of the stuff, just in case.
- Energy consumption is lower than in previous years and keeps dropping. There were two cold weeks in december when people heated more and there was a short spike, but as soon as the weather got milder again, energy consumption dropped dramatically again. The winter has been so mild (climate change and all that) that we needed little heating so far. Communities cut down on public christmas lighting, public pools were heated a little less, stuff like that, nothing drastic, but enough to make a measurable dent. Unlike in the UK there wasn't really a "eat or heat" crises.
- Gas prices have been dropping for months and keep dropping.
- Last year's targets for more wind and solar energy were (over)fulfilled. A lot more has to be done, but things are happening. On average 49.2% of all energy generated in Germany in 2022 was from renewable sources (in fact yesterday it was 55% because of strong winds).
- Gasoline prices and electricity prices keep going down.

source: https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-deutschland-gaspreis-spritpreis-energieversorgung