Random Politics Thread

[DiscoBiscuit]

At least 52 senators and at least 230 house seats.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574053145205800960

 

[The Cat]

 

[Kephalos]

"The prospect of a Prime Minister Meloni holds many questions and few answers." Daniel Kochis.

Following up on the Italian and Swedish general elections, it is interesting that in both cases, the election was won by a coalition of most, if not all, conservative and right-wing parties.

This has implications for other European countries, such as Germany, where the CDU/CSU still refuses (even under its new leadership) to form a coalition with the AfD (despite some proposals here and there that have been heavily criticized and quickly shut down) but were abandoned by the other kind-of-right Free Democrats (who are If I am not mistaken are part of the current left-wing government coalition). It also has implications for Spain, where it has been clear for some time now that the only way to oust Pedro Sanchez and his coalition of populists and separatists is to form a government with Vox -- which is for the most part disaffected former members of the Partido Popular. And as for France, the way for Mr. Macron form anything other than a minority government is to make a coalition with the Rassemblement National and what's left of Zemmour's movement.

Selection from the article: "La progression fulgurante des partis de droite." Bénédicte Lutaud. (article is in French, but if anyone can find an English version that would be much appreciated). Google Translation of the selection.

Autrement dit, des partis de droite radicale, autrefois à la marge des scrutins électoraux, et réputés «infréquentables», deviennent désormais, par leur progression fulgurante, des incontournables aux yeux d'une droite plus classique, pour exister électoralement. Et parviennent même, parfois, à participer à des coalitions de gouvernement. Une tendance que l'on retrouve ailleurs en Europe, bien qu'il s'agisse de distinguer chaque courant, tendance, et surtout, les différents modes de scrutins électoraux d'un pays à l'autre.
...
Aux élections législatives de 2019, le parti, mené par Jarosław Kaczyński, a reconduit sa majorité. La coalition Droit et justice, renforcée de quatre partis alliés, a remporté le scrutin avec 43,3% des voix.
...
La bascule est historique : jamais jusqu'ici un gouvernement suédois ne s'était appuyé au parlement sur les SD, les grands vainqueurs des élections avec 20,5% des voix et s'imposant désormais comme deuxième parti du pays...Mais si les Démocrates de Suède sont devenus le premier parti de droite du pays, ils ne sont pas en mesure de revendiquer le poste de Premier ministre, poste promis à Ulf Kristersson, leader des conservateurs suédois.
...
«Fratelli d'Italia en Italie, et les démocrates de Suède ont plusieurs choses en commun, note Jean-Yves Camus, politologue et spécialiste reconnu des droites en Europe. Ils sont conservateurs - en terme sociétal - et libéraux sur le plan économique, visant leur électorat dans les classes moyennes, les commerçants, artisans et petits entrepreneurs. Ils ont le même programme anti-immigration. Et font parti du même groupe politique - conservateurs et réformistes - au sein de l'UE».
...
À tel point qu'en vue des élections législatives du 25 septembre prochain, c'est bien Fratelli d'Italia qui mène la coalition de droite, formée également de la Ligue de Salvini et de Forza Italia de Berlusconi. Les sondages lui donnent en effet entre 24 et 26% des votes exprimés.
...
Contrairement à la Suède et à l’Italie actuelle, «l’union des droites», qu’Éric Zemmour appelle de ses vœux, est toutefois pour l’heure rejetée par le RN de Marine Le Pen et par les dirigeants des Républicains.
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Les sondages indiquent que Vox pourrait progresser lors des prochaines élections générales, prévues fin 2023, et même se rapprocher d'une majorité absolue avec le PP. En Espagne, en effet, il n’existe pas de réel «cordon sanitaire» - vis-à-vis de Vox, que la direction actuelle du PP ne considère pas comme un parti «d’extrême-droite».
...
Aux élections fédérales de septembre 2021, le parti Alternative pour l’Allemagne (AfD) a obtenu 10,3 %, contre 12,6 % en 2017 où, pour la première fois depuis la Seconde guerre mondiale, un parti classé par certains observateurs à l'extrême droite entrait au Bundestag (Parlement allemand). La coalition avec l'AFD reste toutefois «impensable en Allemagne, pour des raisons historiques évidentes», estime Jean-Yves Camus.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Following up on the Italian and Swedish general elections, it is interesting that in both cases, the election was won by a coalition of most, if not all, conservative and right-wing parties.

This has implications for other European countries, such as Germany, where the CDU/CSU still refuses (even under its new leadership) to form a coalition with the AfD (despite some proposals here and there that have been heavily criticized and quickly shut down) but were abandoned by the other kind-of-right Free Democrats (who are If I am not mistaken part of the current left-wing government coalitionon). It also has implications for Spain, where it has been clear for some time now that the only way to oust Pedro Sanchez and his coalition of populists and separatists is to form a government with Vox -- which is for the most part disaffected former members of the Partido Popular. And as for France, the way for Mr. Macron form anything other than a minority government is to make a coalition with the Rassemblement National and what's left of Zemmour's movement.

Selection from the article: "La progression fulgurante des partis de droite." Bénédicte Lutaud. (article is in French, but if anyone can find an English version that would be much appreciated). Google Translation of the selection.

Germany will be the last to concede allowing the AfD having any hand in government. In Sweden I don't think they will allow Jimmie Akesson of the Sweden Democrats to be prime minister so it will be the more moderate guy named Ulf.

The process of the growth of the right wing in Europe has been slow, but its coming along apace. I bet Europeans from 10 years ago would be shocked to see the state of things today.

Green parties and immigration are gonna end up killing the dominance of the left in Europe, that process may take a decade or more but the winds seem to have shifted in fundamental ways.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

 

[Red Herring]

Well... it's still not 100% sure Giorgia Meloni will be the Italian PM.
Her coalition is supposed to get ~40-45% of the parliament, but the PM is actually chosen by the president. The winning party leader is usually the first name that gets suggested, but it's not always the one to be chosen. Given how much controversial she is, it's not to be taken for granted that Mattarella will choose her. I still hope in a PM who's above the parties like it already happened in the past, such as when Salvini (now in coalition with Meloni) won the elections last time and Conte was elected PM instead.

This being Italy the coalition probably won't last long anyway ...

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574251105940377607

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

It's looking like Liz Truss fucked things up royally with this new budget. The dollar is so strong right now because our Fed has taken our inflation more seriously and raised rates.

The Truss budget just lowers taxes and increases spending, both inflationary measures. Of course the Pound Sterling is gonna tank.

Glad to see her whig politics take a hit when it comes.

 

[The Cat]

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

 

[The Cat]

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574531536879292416

 

[The Cat]

"If you are looking to cast yourself as the people trying to bring more freedom to a country, and you actively campaign against something that brings more freedom to the people of that country...there's probably an issue..."​

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Lol Google, lmao even.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Burning Paradigm]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the "yass"-ification of far-right politics.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573365477782552577

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

If people are this bent out of shape over centrists like Obama and Biden, they're going to lose their shit if and when an actual demsoc or progressive is elected to office.