Trump vs. Biden

[Virtual ghost]

This is going under the radar but ....


Montana 538


Let's be honest, this could go blue. Especially if we consider that early vote is at shocking 91.2% of the whole 2016 (third highest percentage in the country).
The senate seat is also in play here.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I think even if the Trumpocrats are defeated there's major lessons to be learned from all of the developments over the past few years.

There's a lot of genies that cant be put back into bottles and a whole generation has been exposed to political radicalism as right wing and the right wing as an alternative, the echos and traces of that are going to last, even if the real content disappears.

I also dont think that the left has learned many lessons at all, not even moderates, and very definitely not the cultural campaigners. They really should not take the lesson out of things that because people so disliked the alternative to them that they are actually supportive of them. That's not the case. I also hope they dont ever entertain the dumb idea that they can impose whatever they like provided they hold office.

There's a lot of communication and thinking learning to be done, some of it is not that complex, you can not discuss anti-racism without discussing racism and that is precisely how a lot of racists like it, that's just one, simple, example. I think the left still defines itself in terms of what it objects to or wants to resist instead of a positive alternative, often if it does its shockingly vague, full of neurotic needs and stuff like that which will not be shared by most people.

i intend to stay politically active in the event of a Biden win. It's not an excuse for me to return normal and start going back to brunch. It just means that there are different things I'll need to do. I have to worry less about making sure militia types from out of state don't show up and start murdering my neighbors, and more about trying to make sure actual change and things that people actually need happens (which I expect Biden and mainstream Democrats to resist or come up for some lame excuse for why they can't do it even if they have a trifecta). I could be wrong about this, but I think there's enough popular will now for a movement to challenge Biden from the left once in office. I think enough people recognize that Biden is nowhere close to a solution to all of these problems. Maybe if I get involved, I can shape things away from what I see as counterproductive tendencies.

It seems a far cry from 2008 where the few left radicals I did know (in college) sneered at "electoralism" and as a consequence didn't even want to discuss how to approach something insignificant like the results of a Presidential election. (The cynical part of me thinks that the real motivation was that they didn't want to risk unpopularity by being more vocal about the potential limitations of an Obama presidency. It was nuts... people on campus were dancing with a cardboard cutout of Obama after he won; that was kind of spooky, lol. ) Even Occupy Wall Street... there was little criticism of the Obama administration (I think people still thought the Democratic party would come out more strongly on the side of the protestors) there and it seemed to function in the end mostly as a way to fuel Obama's re-election campaign.

 

[ceecee]

i intend to stay politically active in the event of a Biden win. It's not an excuse for me to return normal and start going back to brunch. It just means that there are different things I'll need to do.

People wanting to go back to normal, is probably my biggest fear. This fight is just beginning.

 

[Jaguar]

There is no going back to normal. It died.

 

[Jonny]

US election: Biden event in Texas cancelled as 'armed' Trump supporters threaten campaign bus

 

[Jaguar]

US election: Biden event in Texas cancelled as 'armed' Trump supporters threaten campaign bus

Crazy people:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden...r-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus?ref=scroll

One of them tried to run someone off the road. Can it get any more juvenile than this?

 

[Red Herring]

I recently started putting away a little bit of money for retirement. Not much, because I don't have much to begin with, but better than nothing. 60% of the fund goes into stocks (longterm investments rather than short term trade as far as I can tell). I had opened my little account in May and it had been doing well ever since despite 2020 such a weird and shitty year. Then when the second wave started hitting Europe and it became clear there would be a second lockdown it all melted down. If I withdrew now I'd only get back what I paid in.

However, I have now put in even a little more (once again, we are talking small amounts) because as far as I remember the stock market tend to react positively after an election - simply because they like clarity and predictability. Traditionally they favour conservative winners, but from what I have been reading this time Wall Street & co are actually not just betting on but hoping for Biden and, what is more, a blue wave. It would mean clarity and probably a new stimulus package and improved international relations.

So, yeah, I am literally betting my hard earned money on the American election outcome. Not because it's impossible to turn out badly (it still could) but because I think chances are at least decent and, quite frankly, I kinda have to if I want to make up for the loss caused by the pandemic.

Don't let me down, guys!



EDIT: Also, assuming this second lockdown is short and wellhandled most experts predict the German economy to recover back to pre-corona levels by the end of next year. That would imply considerable economic growth for 2021. I am also very much hoping for that. *sigh*

 

[Totenkindly]

However, I have now put in even a little more (once again, we are talking small amounts) because as far as I remember the stock market tend to react positively after an election - simply because they like clarity and predictability. Traditionally they favour conservative winners, but from what I have been reading this time Wall Street & co are actually not just betting on but hoping for Biden and, what is more, a blue wave. It would mean clarity and probably a new stimulus package and improved international relations.

That is my understanding of it too -- anything to provide stability and long-term positive relations.

We are doing our best!!

 

[Virtual ghost]

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Early voting as percentage of the whole 2016 vote.
States above 60%, the places where early vote could mess up polling by visible margins (for races on all levels).



Hawaii: 110.6%
Texas: 107.7%
Montana: 95.8%
Washington 93.8%
New Mexico: 93.2%
Georgia: 93.2%
North Carolina: 91.1%
Tennessee: 89.6%
Nevada: 88%
Oregon: 87.8%
Florida: 86.6%
Arizona: 86.5%
Colorado: 83.7%
New Jersey: 79.6%
Utah: 78.9%
Vermont: 76.4%
Arkansas: 70.7%
Maryland: 69.3%
Massachusetts 67.6%
North Dakota 67.6%
California: 66.8%
Kentucky: 65.7%
Virginia: 64.7%
Wisconsin 62.3%
Maine 61.5%




I mean in places above 80% the polls could really miss, because the final number could easily be above 130% in the end.

 

[Totenkindly]

what are we up to now, in terms of final vote expectation?

I think something around 137 million voted in 2016, and at this point I think the spread is somewhere around 145-167 million voting, although based on the turnout in the last week I suspect it is even higher.

 

[Jaguar]

I wonder if I should start a thread to track the ballots from each state the Republicans are trying to steal. Let's start with a 100,000+ in Harris county, TX. How dare those people drive up with their ballot, rather than walk. Throw them out!

Texas Republicans ask federal judge to throw out ballots in Harris County.

Federal judge sets hearing Monday on challenge to ballots from drive-thru voting in Texas' largest county - CNNPolitics

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Early voting ends in all states at the same time ?

Yes, but it spans a few hours since we have several time zones.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

US election: Biden event in Texas cancelled as 'armed' Trump supporters threaten campaign bus

Crazy people:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden...r-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus?ref=scroll

One of them tried to run someone off the road. Can it get any more juvenile than this?

Yeah, Antifa is at it again. And I'll bet anything Hunter Biden is involved.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yes, but it spans a few hours since we have several time zones.

Of course, but that is the detail I don't count.





Anyway, I am reading my local newspapers and judging based on that there will probably be a mess in two days. Since both sides can't rally agree on the election rules. Therefore people are buying supplies since they expect mess. While the second part is how the current president has undone just about every social standard/convention there was in the country.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is as if I am waiting for the New Year. It will surely come and everything is kinda on hold.

 

[Jonny]

Yeah, Antifa is at it again. And I'll bet anything Hunter Biden is involved.

Republican response:

 

[Z Buck McFate]

I get that there's a distrust in MSM, but when did all the intelligence agencies in this country (who all currently claim white supremacy and extreme right groups are a legitimate and significant threat, Antifa never even merits a mention) lose their credibility as well? It *looks* like truth is entirely dictated by Emperor Blowhole: whoever contradicts him, no matter their experience and/or the credibility they've built up their entire adult lives, one tweet from the mad king and his bloodthirsty hordes are 100% onboard. That's what it looks like. And I really hope there's a lot I'm missing, because holy shit would that be sad.

 

[ceecee]

I get that there's a distrust in MSM, but when did all the intelligence agencies in this country (who all currently claim white supremacy and extreme right groups are a legitimate and significant threat, Antifa never even merits a mention) lose their credibility as well? It *looks* like truth is entirely dictated by Emperor Blowhole: whoever contradicts him, no matter their experience and/or the credibility they've built up their entire adult lives, one tweet from the mad king and his bloodthirsty hordes are 100% onboard. That's what it looks like. And I really hope there's a lot I'm missing, because holy shit would that be sad.

Revealed: Trump-linked consultant tied to Facebook pages warning election will cause civil war | US elections 2020 | The Guardian

 

[Z Buck McFate]

^