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What is some viable proof of Global Warming?

Tellenbach

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EcK said:
Edit: actually. Scanning through your quote and based on it... I think i've spotted your mistake.
Its co2 absoption at SEA level.

So the more co2 u add the "higher" it goes trapping
More and more heat in the amosphere and the "leaking out" of heat into space happens over less and less "volume" of air up to the higher atmosphere.

Let's be even more specific. It's 300 meters starting at sea level.

These particular measurements are over a path length of 300 meters, and cover the IR spectrum from short-wave infrared out to beyond 20 microns in the LWIR (see “Field Measurements of Atmospheric Transmission”).

You're suggesting that some IR (blackbody radiation) makes it past this 300 meter blanket of CO2. I'm assuming they didn't measure beyond 300 meters because none of it makes it through.

Edit: Scratch that. If they got 100% absorption, that means nothing got through this 300 meter blanket.

It's not "co2 saturation at sea level" its co2 saturation in the atmosphere as a whole that matters. To simplify.

It's CO2 saturation starting at sea level and going up 300 meters.
 

EcK

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Let's be even more specific. It's 300 meters starting at sea level.



You're suggesting that some IR (blackbody radiation) makes it past this 300 meter blanket of CO2. I'm assuming they didn't measure beyond 300 meters because none of it makes it through.



It's CO2 saturation starting at sea level and going up 300 meters.

Co2 has a weight be unit of volume that is about 50% higher than "air" as a whole. With much closer values keeping nitrogen and oxygen oretty well mixed for the first few kms.

Co2 will "sink" to the bottom. Wind mixed ir up a bit but far less than it would a lighter gas.

The data you ve presented is interesting. However you have to keep in mind that 300ms is a small portion of the overall volume of the atmosphere
 

Tellenbach

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EcK said:
The data you ve presented is interesting. However you have to keep in mind that 300ms is a small portion of the overall volume of the atmosphere

If they got 100% absorption, that means zero IR radiation got through the 300 meters into the upper atmosphere.
 

EcK

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If they got 100% absorption, that means zero IR radiation got through the 300 meters into the upper atmosphere.


Lets do a very rough and dirty calculation to give us some ballpark figures :

Google says earth volume is
1,097,509,500,000,000,000,000 cubic meters.

so if we substract that from volume + 300m and volume +20km (a very rough approximation assuming there's enough air to fill the atmosphere 20km up at sea level density levels but i didn't calculate relative gas density etc. so sue me, I'm sure I'm off by a few kms)

it ads up to your test describing 1% of the earth's atmosphere if my first very rough estimate is correct - most probably not. and about 3% if we say it's about 7-10 instead of 20kms - more probably correct. You get the idea.

That's akin to putting oil and water in a 1m tall jar and testing the cm at the bottom and finding high concentrations of OIL. The rest of the jar can still be practically oil free.

A better measure would be CO2 saturation at different heights, including in the high atmosphere through the years.

Also keep in mind that it's all about differentials. If say we have an atmosphere that is saturated / quasi saturated in CO2 for the first km instead of say the first 500m. Then the 'low co2 saturation' air that allows for heat to escape back into space is WAY COOLER meaning that FAR LESS heat gets to escape even if the 'saturated' air only reaches a few hundreds of meters higher in the atmosphere.

So adding a few meters of 'saturated' air (i'm simplifying, wind mixes things up a bit more than that) near sea level where temps are high might be equivalent to a few hundreds of meters of co2 satured air a few kms up in terms of reducing heat 'leakage' into the space.

The issue with CO2 is its relative weight compared to air and nitrogen, making it far more concentrated near sea level where there's far more heat to be 'trapped'. If it was lighter we wouldn't have to worry because it'd just get mixed in and spread out about equally by winds throughout the atmosphere. As it's heavy it tends to 'stay' at low altitudes where most of the earth's 'heat' can be 'trapped'

of course it also means we wouldn't be alive without CO2 because the whole earth would be a giant ice crea.. I mean ball of ice. But that doesn't mean we need more.

I'm also against higher oxygen levels in the atmosphere btw, because it would end up meaning giant insects('skin breathers, limited in size by the surface to weight ratio). and that would sincerely creep me out to no end.

least but not last: (I didn't really read the article so these are assumptions) I'm assuming they beamed some Infra reds and didn't get any 'ping back' past 300m up.
That doesn't mean 100% saturation. That just means that the saturation is such that none of the IR 'pings back' past 300m. So the air from 0 to 300m up could still be only '10% saturated' for all this proves. Secondly there's diffraction and stuff, depending how they've made their setup they could also be missing lots of 'ping backs' simply because the IRs are getting scared scattered at wider and wider ranges the higher they go.

So overall, from my perspective, this study is rather inconclusive. Too many holes to poke at.
 

EcK

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I think a better campaign against global warming would be to explain to people how more c02 means more 02 means bigger insects.

Global warming = giant insects
Fight against global warming = protecting our children from being devoured by giant insects.

Now that's a campaign people would root for.

 

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Since no one posted on the new thread I did,
nasa says fossil fuels cause global cooling, I just wondered if any of those global warming supporters would like to comment here.

NASA is a crazy bunch of deniers, anyway, right?

And they deny the models--are they anti-Neanderthals?

Or did these NASA scientists just ruin their careers for pursuing truth over politics?
 

á´…eparted

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Since no one posted on the new thread I did,
nasa says fossil fuels cause global cooling, I just wondered if any of those global warming supporters would like to comment here.

NASA is a crazy bunch of deniers, anyway, right?

And they deny the models--are they anti-Neanderthals?

Or did these NASA scientists just ruin their careers for pursuing truth over politics?

The article is, unsurprisingly, is trying to spin this as proof there is no climate change, like pretty much every article on climate change that isn't from a scientific journal or news site. This quote from the article sums it up:

While the findings did not dispute the effects of carbon dioxide on global warming, they found aerosols - also given off by burning fossil fuels - actually cool the local environment, at least temporarily.

As such, it doesn't disprove anything. Further:

But, rather than being good news, NASA has concluded the lack of taking these factors into account means existing climate change models have underestimated at the future impact on global temperatures will be.

Science doesn't have an agenda. It's the reporting agencies do.
 

great_bay

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I have heard so many different stories, I really don't know what to believe anymore.
 

SearchingforPeace

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The article is, unsurprisingly, is trying to spin this as proof there is no climate change, like pretty much every article on climate change that isn't from a scientific journal or news site. This quote from the article sums it up:



As such, it doesn't disprove anything. Further:



Science doesn't have an agenda. It's the reporting agencies do.

The article says the models are bad. This had been said by many for years by people and scientist called by opponents "Deniers".

Science was politicized by those with agendas, pushing "consensus", ignoring doubt. There was a lot of money made on the global warming agenda, especially with silly things like cap and trade.

If burning fossil fuels actually fights global warming as the paper suggests, why would we spend so much on alternative energy? It is just another way to rent seek on the back of the public.

The entire propaganda attempting to force political change before the science is really understood was foolhardy.

And a fraction of the money wasted could have been spent truly helping lives, like clean water and sanitation. The inefficiency of this all is incredible.
 

á´…eparted

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I will make short work of this.

The article says the models are bad. This had been said by many for years by people and scientist called by opponents "Deniers".

The article is not the scientists. Science undergoes flux based on new evidence, and the vast majority in the field have what they need to work with. If there is a genuine need for a new model, it will be made and taken up by the community, and be disseminated to the public readily.


Science was politicized by those with agendas, pushing "consensus", ignoring doubt. There was a lot of money made on the global warming agenda, especially with silly things like cap and trade.

The science is not politicized. It's everything that happens after the published research.


If burning fossil fuels actually fights global warming as the paper suggests, why would we spend so much on alternative energy? It is just another way to rent seek on the back of the public.

Except, the paper, nor does nasa suggest doesn't suggest burning fossil fuels fights global warming. It's the article writer that is making that claim. The article curiously doesn't make it very easy to look at the original paper, nor do they have any citations. Not surprising in the least. They don't even mention the journal it was published in. This ALONE should be setting off alarm bells that the news website is likely spouting garbage.

Nevertheless here it is. It's behind a paywall, but through my university I can look at it. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2888.html
At no point in the paper do they say or suggest that burning fossil fuels would help climate change. Further, they do not suggest that the planet is cooling. The ONLY time they reference any sort of cooling, or suggest anything regarding climate change not being valid is the following sentance:

Nature Climate Change Letter said:
This is largely a result of the low efficacy of ozone and volcanic forcings and the high efficacy of aerosol and LU forcing (which have had a cooling effect over the historical period), although further study is needed to explore model differences in simulating efficacies and to enhance confidence in these estimates.

So actually, this is nothing new, but a mere point that there is a cooling effect from a particular material. That's it. The paper itself is about revising the models they use, and there needs to be additional factors included. Which suggests that climate change is MORE vigorus (which I quoted the editorial even saying in my first reply). As such, the source you provided has spin doctored this research, and is absolute bunk.

Google search the article headlines, and it only shows up on fringe "news" sites that have no clout and offer no better insight than the bullshit website provided. Here is a fair and unspun news article from a reputable science news conglomerate: Examination of Earth's recent history key to predicting global temperatures


The entire propaganda attempting to force political change before the science is really understood was foolhardy.

Ah no, it's people that don't believe the science (for whatever bullshit reason it may be) that have and push the agenda. It's the political pundents and laymen that have deluded themselves into thinking they are experts, or can extrapolate the papers, and the vast majortity don't even look at the original work, and just spin or parrot back a basic news editorial (which is frequently wrong).


And a fraction of the money wasted could have been spent truly helping lives, like clean water and sanitation. The inefficiency of this all is incredible.

Those are issues that need attention as well, but this does too. The fact that fossil fuels will run out eventually and we need to conserve them for other purposes other than fuel notwithstanding.


The next time you want to parrot these fringe articles, or try and go against published work, you might want to do a little research before hand so you can see if you even know what you're talking about in the first place. Anyway, my work here is done, and I am not replying any further, or anyone else who is brazenly anti-science.
 

SearchingforPeace

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The article is not the scientists. Science undergoes flux based on new evidence, and the vast majority in the field have what they need to work with. If there is a genuine need for a new model, it will be made and taken up by the community, and be disseminated to the public readily.
But we were told there was consensus that the models were correct. Does that mean that all those scientists were wrong?

The science is not politicized. It's everything that happens after the published research.
Such innocence.... the funding is politicized... the grant process is politicized... The peer review process is politicized... experts in the field are ostracized if they push forward alternative views...

The paper itself is about revising the models they use, and there needs to be additional factors included.
But we have been told constantly that the models to be trusted as gospel, and that we must adopt radical change based upon these models....

Admitting the models are wrong is not a small detail....

As such, the source you provided has spin doctored this research, and is absolute bunk.
OK, NASA is bunk, since NASA scientists and spokespeople are quoted throughout the article. Got that, lol

It's the political pundits and laymen that have deluded themselves into thinking they are experts

like Al Gore and Barack Obama?

The next time you want to parrot these fringe articles, or try and go against published work, you might want to do a little research before hand so you can see if you even know what you're talking about in the first place. Anyway, my work here is done, and I am not replying any further, or anyone else who is brazenly anti-science.

Oh, your work is done here. The mighty one has spoken. Wisdom has been bestowed. We should all shut up now, right?

Anyone wanting to use their own brains is "brazenly anti-science"? Wow.... such hostility and judgments.....
 

grey_beard

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Hi,

basically what the title is; I have just read so many papers and opinions disputing both sides, and I am not really sure of what to make of the idea. Though, I lean very much towards it being of course real.

It seems like most people you talk to, and most things you read are all over the place, and no one really agrees on the idea wholly. I mean, could it be a hoax made up to scare people...?

The lack of mile- or two mile- thick glaciers over Toronto, Montreal, Boston, etc.

Of course, they receded before Al Gore was born, so it might not have anything to do with human agency.
But you can't admit that or they'll cut off your grant funding / slush fund.
 

grey_beard

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The article is, unsurprisingly, is trying to spin this as proof there is no climate change, like pretty much every article on climate change that isn't from a scientific journal or news site. This quote from the article sums it up:



As such, it doesn't disprove anything. Further:



Science doesn't have an agenda. It's the reporting agencies do.

Which is why global warming cultists like to throw around that "97% of scientists believe in global warming" propaganda...
Incidentally, the number of scientists...or of anyone, subscribing to a hypothesis is not a determinant of its truth or falsehood.
Remember heliobacter pylorus?
 

grey_beard

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The global economic costs from climate change may be worse than expected | Brookings Institution

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/cost-of-not-acting-on-climate-change-44-trillion-citi.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review

Going by Occam's razor, is it not simpler to conclude that there is a serious problem that we must act on, rather than claiming a mass conspiracy theory with thousands of individuals across international government institutions, without any reason to back each other up, altering data in a single direction?

The reason to back them up is money, peer pressure, and the loss of status and/or one's position.
 

21%

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Whether we caused global warming or not, I don't understand why people would not want to push for clean, renewable energy sources like solar energy? I mean, oil is going to run out one day. Think of our great grandchildren.

Plus, burning fossil fuel causes pollution, so we should stop.
 

á´…eparted

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Whether we caused global warming or not, I don't understand why people would not want to push for clean, renewable energy sources like solar energy? I mean, oil is going to run out one day. Think of our great grandchildren.

Plus, burning fossil fuel causes pollution, so we should stop.

I'm a HUGE advocate for nuclear energy, personally. We still need to conduct research on safeguards and management of waste. That said, if a government initative were created, we could solve those roadblocks in a decade no problem. It frustrates me to no end when people shout "but nuclear is dangerous!". It really isn't.

Fossil fuels will be needed for a long while though, because the chemical industry relies on it for feedstocks. Stuff like benzene, which is needed to produce countless upon countless medications, and that's not its only application. If we were to suddenly lurch off fossil fuels over night it would actually disrupt the chemical industry quite badly causing a lot of downstream effect. Eventually these will run out, but it's very likely that when they do run out, we'll have new methods to access these essential feedstocks. There's research going into it as we speak and it won't be too long before it's cracked (it will be in our lifetime).

The energy sector needs to set up short and long term plans if it's to be done correctly, and it does need to be done.
 

grey_beard

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Didn't read the data so wom't comment on that directly but: assuming it's true - wouldn't higher temperatures mean
More co2 can be absorbed in the atmosphere

Edit: actually. Scanning through your quote and based on it... I think i've spotted your mistake.
Its co2 absoption at SEA level.

So the more co2 u add the "higher" it goes trapping
More and more heat in the amosphere and the "leaking out" of heat into space happens over less and less "volume" of air up to the higher atmosphere.

It's not "co2 saturation at sea level" its co2 saturation in the atmosphere as a whole that matters. To simplify.

So.. Debunked. Sorry.
Please learn to interpret data correctly before stating everyone else is wrong. You'll avoid
Embarassing yourself in the future. :coffee:

You don't know what you're talking about.

What happens is that incoming solar radiation impinges upon the atmosphere.
It it not monochromatic.
Different molecules in the atmosphere absorb a portion of the solar radiation, according to (for example) their vibrotational modes: jumping between such and such vibrational-rotational level, to a higher level, requires energy of some amount.
Incoming photons corresponding to that amount of energy are absorbed by the molecules.

The molecules *may* radiate the energy latter, but not necessarily going to their original state: perhaps they release a smaller amount of energy; perhaps they collide with another molecule undergoing inelastic transitions; so on, and so forth.

The idea behind "global warming" is that CO2 preferentially absorbs energy in the IR band, and the re-release of this energy warms the planet. The analogy is made to a "Greenhouse".

But there are a number of flaws with this.

One of them ... if you dig for it, is that a greenhouse does not attain its temperatures because all of the solar radiation is absorbed, but because it is *enclosed*. The air is trapped: and being in an enclosed space there are heat transport mechanisms which are not active, which are seen in the big wide world.

Another one, is that the absorption of CO2 is what is known as "saturated": this does NOT imply, as you took it, that the atmospherre holds all the CO2 that it can hold, but rather, the CO2 which *already exists* (in addition to water vapor, btw, should you care to look it up), absorbs basically ALL of the incoming IR band light from the sun.
In other words, adding additional CO2 will not increase the heat absorbed by the atmosphere.

(Think of it this way, in another connection. Let's pretend ISIS or Iran has detonated a small nuke in San Francisco, and you're across the bay in Oakland. You want shielding to protect you from fallout. Let's say your back-of-the-envelope calculation has told you that a three-inch sheet of lead will absorb all of the radiation. At that point, adding another six inches, or even a foot, of additional lead won't absorb any more radiation: all the radiation that came at you is already absorbed by the first three inches of lead.
And so with solar radiation. If the existing CO2 already gobbles up all the incoming IR from the sun, adding more CO2 won't cause any more to be absorbed: it may (depending on the concentration-altitude distribution of CO2 -- and that depends on temperatures, and plant cover, and reflectivity of the earth's surface, and whether you are above land or ocean, and the solubility of CO2 in water, and therefore the temperature of the water...) )

There are a couple of other problems with the models; among them being predicted feedback from changes in CO2, or moisture; the fact that the models are not matching the actual recorded data very well, either qualitatively or quantitatively; poor stewardship/maintenance of the data (e.g. the "hockey stick" and the "hide the decline" emails from East Anglia; the refusal to release some raw data sets to third parties (a scientist refusing to divulge the raw data is ALWAYS a red flag); failure to note that CO2-temperature correlations from the past show CO2 increases as LAGGING the temperature increases, instead of preceding them...

And, as always, follow the money and power trail.

Hint: China has been building one or two coal-fired power plants for YEARS. India likewise has been adding fossil fuel capabilities. Each of their economies (in terms of CO2 emitted per unit of economic output) is far more inefficient than the US; so that the US going back to 1950s levels of pollution will not make up for the increase in Cow by China and India: yet they seem to be curiously exempt from the restrictions. And the number of Democrat donors and cronies who have grown wealthy off of this, even while their companies either go bankrupt (Solyndra) or cause other unforeseen ecological disasters (bird strikes on wind turbines), is very instructive.

If the "no fossil fuel crowd" were intellectually honest, they'd be pushing nuclear power (France gets 70% of its electricity from nuclear power). But that was discouraged years ago on orders from the Kremlin, as a back-door way to try to attack the US nuclear weapons capability. Even with that, however, there are more promising forms of nuclear reactors (pebble bed and molten salt reactors, thorium reactors) which don't have the risks of the Cold War era reactors. How come those are never considered or pushed?
 

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Whether we caused global warming or not, I don't understand why people would not want to push for clean, renewable energy sources like solar energy? I mean, oil is going to run out one day. Think of our great grandchildren.

Plus, burning fossil fuel causes pollution, so we should stop.

So does breathing. :dry:

Go research the CO2 generation by China and India, and the trends thereof. Ask why they are not being forced to stop, but only the West.
 

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Whether we caused global warming or not, I don't understand why people would not want to push for clean, renewable energy sources like solar energy? I mean, oil is going to run out one day. Think of our great grandchildren.

Plus, burning fossil fuel causes pollution, so we should stop.

Solar is great. Wind can be great. Hydro, geothermal, and other sources are great. Nuclear is great.

But everything has a cost. Greenpeace decades ago agreed to support a dam along the Utah/Arizona at a place called Glen Canyon. They felt it was a victory given that they stopped several BLM projects in the Grand Canyon.

The only problem is that it flooded some of the most majestic canyons in the world, just ones that only a few hundred non-natives had ever seen. Having spent considerable time in the parts that were not flooded, I view it as a crime against the Earth.

Pollution should be minimized. Factories and power plants shouldn't be allowed to pollute excessively.

These are great environmental programs, designed to improve quality of life.

However, following a politicized agenda is not for the environment. It is about money and power and control.
 

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So does breathing. :dry:

Go research the CO2 generation by China and India, and the trends thereof. Ask why they are not being forced to stop, but only the West.

Oh, I think they should be required to stop ASAP. But who's going to make them? Only their own people can put that kind of pressure on the government. So whoever can afford to be 'clean and green' should try to set good examples. Is it fair? No. But if the boat is sinking and people keep arguing who should plug their hole first we're just all going to sink.
 
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