However since I typed half of my thought I may as well type the other half, even if I know that some people here aren't going to like this. These are the thoughts before Ginsburg came fully into the picture but I am not sure that this changes the story all that much. In other words: if something big doesn't happen between the election day and debates are more of a draw I would actually put more money on Trump as a winner. However I will be fair enough to explain why.
The first part of the story is already in the last post. So I will be more concrete.
The thing is that plenty of states should go to Biden as it looks for now, but in many of them the lead isn't all that large. At this point Florida for Biden at best can be rated as "Tilt D", if we judge by 538. The 2 point lead is simply within margin of error. While NC is even closer, it is so close that is practice the state is probably red. However if these two states go red then Trump evidently has a shot. Pennsylvania in polling average is at Biden +5 and that is reachable. Nevada also narrowed down to that number, for Arizona is kinda a miracle that it also has Biden at plus 5. In New Hampshire about 1/4 of the lead is lost this month. Some districts in Nebraska and Maine could perhaps go red (again). From what I understood Texas doesn't do mail voting and with that during the pandemic it is hard that there will be more blue votes there. Georgia seems to be toying with list of registered voters. If polls miss as much as the last time on current numbers Wisconsin will be red again. Minnesota is also being called into question. Ohio used to be a pure toss up and now it is leaning very slightly red. Colorado is still fairly blue in polls but the drop since mid July is large 7 points.
In other words when you scratch the surface it doesn't look THAT great for Biden. However what is perhaps most concerning is that plenty of narrative is rotating around the polls. In other words if 1 in 50 voters in every state lied for whatever the reason that he will vote for Biden while he will vote for Trump that changes everything (even if the person still doesn't realize that their mind will flip in a few weeks under social media or whatever). Therefore if 2% of the voters don't vote as they said to the polls that means Biden is going down for 2 points and Trump is going up for 2 points. What suddenly changes the whole map and you will have toss ups or "within margin of error" all over the map. Especially since you have to add lower enthusiasm of Bernie people (out of which some probably wouldn't vote in the end), plus games with voting places, then games with postal service, rural areas probably aren't polled in the most precise way etc. Also the pandemic got trivialized as a talking point and it is now just "new normal". Plus there is also this story of removing green party from the ballot in certain states and if the democrats are really doing that they will probably lose more votes than they will gain for doing that. Or if the whole story is fake that is kinda even worse, since the effects will probably be as if it is real. Therefore all these states where Biden has a lead of 5 to 7 points can be quickly remade by "real life". As I said all of this really reminds me of my own corona elections that ended with unexpected right wing landslide. Since people simply didn't vote and the left establishment was in the clouds all the time. So when the debates went terribly wrong there was just not enough time to fix it. To the point that they got slammed so hard that even places like New Jersey and Oregon went red. Since the pandemic, low enthusiasm and simplistic talking points "forced" people to stay away. What tilted the whole country for 15 points or perhaps even more. Yeah, it is different political system and reality but I can really see the clear parallels.
Maybe all of this will indeed be enough for a win but this is a huge gamble that probably isn't justified, since there is indeed active risk of another 2016. Therefore the blue campaign and the base in my book have to rethink approach and strategy. That is really my honest opinion.
