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Cold war 2.0

SensEye

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May 10, 2007
Messages
573
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INTp
The taboo of voting for populist, anti-immigration parties is fading.
And well it should be.

I've been saying for a while that open border policies are universally reviled just about everywhere. The fact that centrist political parties have been so terrified of appearing 'racist' and not toughening their stances on illegal immigration is driving people to the right because only far right parties have the guts to oppose ridiculously liberal immigration policies.

The center needs to move right on this specific issue where they are so out of touch with mainstream citizens. Otherwise they deserve to lose voters.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
Messages
20,054
And well it should be.

I've been saying for a while that open border policies are universally reviled just about everywhere. The fact that centrist political parties have been so terrified of appearing 'racist' and not toughening their stances on illegal immigration is driving people to the right because only far right parties have the guts to oppose ridiculously liberal immigration policies.

The center needs to move right on this specific issue where they are so out of touch with mainstream citizens. Otherwise they deserve to lose voters.


The key problem here is that the donors of centrists are hoping to get some cheap labor out of this whole mix (what would also lower wages in many cases). What is actually the main reason why most people don't like this game. For example the Dutch centrists had to lose 60% of their support and top spot in order to get the memo. In other words they didn't switch direction until it became completely obvious that they don't really have a choice. Especially since they were basically looking at the Spanish scenario. Which was that the centrists were the most popular party in the fragmented political landscape of the country. While few years later the party got itself to 0.5% of support. What was literally because the whole base of the party shifted towards more nationalistic and closed borders party (in just year and a half).

Also in upcoming EU elections the centrists should lose about 20% of their seats next to the last time. While I suspect that this could be even more, because many rural areas are poorly polled and many don't want to admit for who they are voting for. Not to mention that I have seen comments of centrist voters that come down to "OMG, at this rate we will lose everyone!". Since in some upcoming votes around the continent they should suffer considerable loses (loses of power included). Which is exactly why I said in the other thread that I dislike quite ideological methodology of FDP. Since this is perhaps number one reason why they lost in the polls 2/3 of the support they had in last national elections. If your only voters are textbook business class you will have small amount of seats, since those people are evidently a minority everywhere. As people say "It is your funeral".
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
20,054
Watch out Brussels, Geert Wilders’ new Dutch government is coming

Some things will evidently change.



Belgian PM files complaint against radio host who told listeners to shoot him

The PM is a centrist and LGBT person.
However he doesn't really have a path of getting new mandate in national elections that are in 3 weeks (his party is 5th in the polls and with downward trend).



France — European Parliament voting intention

The gap is getting huge. The yellow are centrists and the black are the far right.
In other words it is impossible to turn this around in a few weeks.



 

SensEye

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The key problem here is that the donors of centrists are hoping to get some cheap labor out of this whole mix (what would also lower wages in many cases). What is actually the main reason why most people don't like this game.
That seems like an easily solved problem. Perhaps I should have emphasized illegal immigrants. Legal immigrants (i.e. those who apply and receive work visas or the like while still in their country of residence) I don't think most people have a problem with. It's the masses of wanderers who just show up at the border with a bogus asylum claim that drives people bonkers.

So I would argue you are incorrect in your assessment. The centrist parties have just been cowed by wokism/political correctness. IMO that is the main reason they won't move away from lax immigration policies. If you need approved numbers of immigrants to provide labor for certain industries, they are easily obtained and most citizens aren't concerned with that because they feel the government is still in control (and they would be if they are prepared to deny entry to immigrants who just show up).

Finally, centrist parties are starting to wake up to their own stupidity (caving to the small but very vocal woke minority) but much chaos has occurred in the meantime.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
Messages
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That seems like an easily solved problem. Perhaps I should have emphasized illegal immigrants. Legal immigrants (i.e. those who apply and receive work visas or the like while still in their country of residence) I don't think most people have a problem with. It's the masses of wanderers who just show up at the border with a bogus asylum claim that drives people bonkers.

So I would argue you are incorrect in your assessment. The centrist parties have just been cowed by wokism/political correctness. IMO that is the main reason they won't move away from lax immigration policies. If you need approved numbers of immigrants to provide labor for certain industries, they are easily obtained and most citizens aren't concerned with that because they feel the government is still in control (and they would be if they are prepared to deny entry to immigrants who just show up).

Finally, centrist parties are starting to wake up to their own stupidity (caving to the small but very vocal woke minority) but much chaos has occurred in the meantime.


Here I would dare to say that your Canadian citizenship blinds you to certain realities of Europe. In other words you are form environment that is cultural mixing pot by default and fairly financially unregulated. In other words when people of color come to Europe legally that is still consider to be a huge problem by many. Since that still "undermines" centuries of history and changes the culture. The fact that it is legal makes little difference to most people. In a sense that is even worse since that seems as deliberate sabotage of nation state, while illegal immigration is simply the problem that has to be solved. All of this is exactly why the strongest of my local centrist parties is at 2%, since to most people legal or illegal immigration doesn't make that much of a difference. Especially since legal immigration tilts labor market and price of labor towards employers. What means that many will not be able to cover their expenses and therefore they will have to move to richer EU member state to cover that. However that only opens even wider need for legal immigration. In other words this is why landscape in Europe looks as it looks. Since in the end this is the game that average Joe can't really win. However typical centrist politician can't understand this since that would crash their whole free market worldview. Therefore since they don't want to change people increasingly say "OK, the far right and nationalists it is".


This is exactly why my nationalists are hoping to expand welfare state and expand domestic production of goods (what demands reductions in free trade). In other words as the most developed western countries are cracking under debt, woke stuff and weaker and weaker public services the idea is to use welfare state to bring back our large diaspora back into Eastern Europe. So that we don't have to import various people from the global South. The process has already started and is indeed showing certain results (Canada will be one if the targeted countries).

However if you want welfare state then again the centrists are a problem and you have to keep them away from power. As I said the fact that they have 2% here isn't a pure coincidence (they are expected to win 0 seats in EU elections). What is especially since here in Slavic world unregulated market of the English speaking world isn't default position. Therefore that is also often considered to be foreign element that has to be controlled. As a matter of fact for older and middle aged people that were born in Communism it is often hard to tell the difference between market and woke (since they grew up without both). As a matter of fact on my left there are voices that want to cut out all immigration as a way to crash globalism and the market. Therefore the odds are that centrists will continue to lose ground, since they have various positions that are interesting to decreasing amount of people. Since the increasing amount of people in Europe doesn't wants globalization on individualistic principles and multi-culturalism of US type (and those two are what Europen centrism is all about in the end). In other words many want supply chains that is more local or regional and made by locals (right), or they they want less market altogather (left). In other words both want to slow things down and centrism wants just the opposite.

This is exactly why for years there is open risk that EU will crack into 2 parts like Roman empire. Since ex colonial powers in western Europe that are increasingly multicultural aren't that compatible with what is today called Central Europe (what is basically ex Warsaw pact). Which is considerably more socially conservative, but often to the left of western Europe in the economics. Therefore if Western Europe is moving away from globalistic centrism that kinda significantly rises the chances that EU will stay together. So all of this is very multi-dimansional in ways that evidently didn't occure to you.


As I said before: I and North American's of this forum live in two different realities.
 

SensEye

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This is potentially much much bigger game changer than most would think.
In a good way or a bad way? He seems a favorite of the current Ayatollah, so at first glance it would seem a stroke of good luck if Raisi is dead. On the other hand, if the next man up is just as bad it's a wash. I also presume Khamenei will just hand pick a new favorite who will be cut from the same cloth, so will it really matter? If this could lead to the rise of a more moderate leader (if such a thing even exists in Iran) I suppose it would be a good thing.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

Up the Wolves
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Jul 24, 2008
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sp/so
In a good way or a bad way? He seems a favorite of the current Ayatollah, so at first glance it would seem a stroke of good luck if Raisi is dead. On the other hand, if the next man up is just as bad it's a wash. I also presume Khamenei will just hand pick a new favorite who will be cut from the same cloth, so will it really matter? If this could lead to the rise of a more moderate leader (if such a thing even exists in Iran) I suppose it would be a good thing.
I think there was around the time Bush gave his Axis of Evil speech.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
Messages
20,054
In a good way or a bad way?

That remains to be seen.
What just happened has potential to cause scenarios form ww3 to massive protests that will crash the regime (in the case that crash was indeed as bad as it is suggested).


As far as your line of thought goes: the country indeed has a more moderate and more radical wing (the guy in the helicopter was from more radical wing).
 
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