Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

This is kinda true, sanctions are basically business as usual at this point. Although this should only be the starting level of them, because there is still some hope that this wouldn't completely blow up. However the Russians have openly said that for then all of this is deeply ideological and historic. What means that economy isn't a priority, what evidently isn't something unprecedented for the country. Also sanctions are indeed kinda the punishment only by western mindset, while towards some other logic this only adds up towards self-sufficiency. Even if we ignore the whole list of friends and allies that will not sanction them at all.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Spain’s imploding center-right opposition moves to choose new leadership

Spain polling average


Drama is pushing voters from center right (blue) to far right (green). Which it is showing its best score in the history of this polling average.
In general Spain has become one of the countries where democracy is slowly melting out. Economy, Catalonia, COVID, demography problems, unsolved history ... it is all just pilling up.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Truth to be told the Alliance has really grown in the term of members. Almost 2 entire continents are in here.

 

[Maou]

It has begun.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Anyone remember this old chestnut? I thought it sounded dumb as hell when I heard it years ago, and uh, given the test of time....

Again fine judges of character those conservatives are.

 

[SD45T-2]

It has begun.

Yeah, it doesn't appear to be cold anymore. And I have a hunch that Putin won't actually give a hoot about sanctions.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeah, it doesn't appear to be cold anymore. And I have a hunch that Putin won't actually give a hoot about sanctions.

Technically first one had proxy wars and coups. Therefore this still counts as cold.
Russia has to hit NATO county for this to really become warm. But yes, all of this isn't good.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Blasts rock Ukraine as Putin declares war

This looks as complete escalation.




Putin puts China in a bind

How Germany helped blaze Putin’s path into Ukraine

 

[Virtual ghost]

Live blog: War in Ukraine

The reactions are coming in mass.

Moldovan president Maia Sandu has announced that she would ask the country's parliament to declare a state of emergency.

This is the question I am wondering for a while: Ukraine is in a bubble between Russia and NATO. But most people are forgetting that in that bubble there are 2 countries and the other is Moldova. Which also has Russian separatists and was a part of USSR. If Russia overwhelms Ukraine everything suggests that Moldova will also be on the menu. Especially if Ukraine falls quickly.

 

[Red Herring]

How Germany helped blaze Putin’s path into Ukraine

Yeah, I wouldn't say that Germany alone is to blame but it certainly didn't help.

It's a mixture of two things, I guess.

On the one hand there is economic dependency on Russian gas. Right now it feels like watching your drug dealer beat up your little sister. However, that dependency was developed deliberately. A few posts back you guys talked about what Germans call "Wandel durch Handel" = change through trade. The share of Russian gas in the energy mix was upped for the same reason some people in during the first Cold War talked about "peace through assured mutual destruction" ... it's basically the economic version of that. Yes, part of it might be an idealistic hope that once other countries experience the wonders of free capitalism they'll suddenly turn liberal and democratic, but more than that the geostrategic reasoning was that if you are too interconnected you can't afford to fight. That might sound naive, but it is after all how the European Union started out (as the European Coal and Steel Community founded in 1951).

Another more complex factor is the cultural situation here in Germany. Even before reunification people were much more split on their loyalties in the Cold War. Western Germany was firmly part of NATO and the Western sphere, but many people were culturally skeptical of the USA and felt a lot of appreciation for Russian culture as well as some Russian political interests. That has remained so till this day. People in Eastern Germany grew up to think of Russia as their "big brother" anyway. Especially the far left and the far right in both parts of the country are russophiles, but also parts of the center-left due to their own cultural and political roots and traditions. Like France, Germany likes to think of itself as a middleman and broker whenever Russia and the USA have one of their clashes.

There is a sort of "self-finlandization" at play.

Add to that Germany's deep aversion to military conflict and you'll see why the country is/was so hesitant on this issue. They kept hoping against hope.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeah, I wouldn't say that Germany alone is to blame but it certainly didn't help.

It's a mixture of two things, I guess.

On the one hand there is economic dependency on Russian gas. Right now it feels like watching your drug dealer beat up your little sister. However, that dependency was developed deliberately. A few posts back you guys talked about what Germans call "Wandel durch Handel" = change through trade. The share of Russian gas in the energy mix was upped for the same reason some people in during the first Cold War talked about "peace through assured mutual destruction" ... it's basically the economic version of that. Yes, part of it might be an idealistic hope that once other countries experience the wonders of free capitalism they'll suddenly turn liberal and democratic, but more than that the geostrategic reasoning was that if you are too interconnected you can't afford to fight. That might sound naive, but it is after all how the European Union started out (as the European Coal and Steel Community founded in 1951).

Another more complex factor is the cultural situation here in Germany. Even before reunification people were much more split on their loyalties in the Cold War. Western Germany was firmly part of NATO and the Western sphere, but many people were culturally skeptical of the USA and felt a lot of appreciation for Russian culture as well as some Russian political interests. That has remained so till this day. People in Eastern Germany grew up to think of Russia as their "big brother" anyway. Especially the far left and the far right in both parts of the country are russophiles, but also parts of the center-left due to their own cultural and political roots and traditions. Like France, Germany likes to think of itself as a middleman and broker whenever Russia and the USA have one of their clashes.

There is a sort of "self-finlandization" at play.

Add to that Germany's deep aversion to military conflict and you'll see why the country is/was so hesitant on this issue. They kept hoping against hope.

Well, I said that a number of countries have been naive in this way. Especially since this politics of change through trade for a while has shown some results. However all those countries should have been more prepared for this when it became obvious that this politics doesn't really work (what was years ago at this point). The real problem is simply in not adjusting to the situation at hand. Since we all saw that trade didn't really lead into democratization, that just stopped at one point.

 

[Red Herring]

Well, I said that a number of countries have been naive in this way. Especially since this politics of change through trade for a while has shown some results. However all those countries should have been more prepared for this when it became obvious that this politics doesn't really work (what was years ago at this point). The real problem is simply in not adjusting to the situation at hand. Since we all saw that trade didn't really lead into democratization, that just stopped at one point.

The bolded is a major problem in Germany. In many regards. We have some pretty decent institutions and a delicate social balance that sort of works (compared to some other places), but change is always a real challenge. I recently saw an interview with an expert on digitalization speak about how our communication infrastructure was topnotch decades ago but hasn't changed since and how we are now far behind other industrial nations. He said that there are so many complex rules and interdependencies, most of which with some sort of historic root, that are very hard to untangle. As a nation, we are stable but slow to adopt to change. This applies to many fields of politics, society, culture and economics.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The bolded is a major problem in Germany. In many regards. We have some pretty decent institutions and a delicate social balance that sort of works (compared to some other places), but change is always a real challenge. I recently saw an interview with an expert on digitalization speak about how our communication infrastructure was topnotch decades ago but hasn't changed since and how we are now far behind other industrial nations. He said that there are so many complex rules and interdependencies, most of which with some sort of historic root, that are very hard to untangle. As a nation, we are stable but slow to adopt to change. This applies to many fields of politics, society, culture and economics.

Well, you are known for stability but with very clear deficit of adaptability. However there were plenty of red flags: Crimea, Georgia, disinformation campaigns, Syria, crushing of all opposition in the country, supporting radicals abroad .... etc. Most of the west was kinda in denial or looked the other way over pretty obvious stuff.


But yeah, today we woke up in a brave new world. Regardless of what anyone thinks about it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The estimates say that 5 million people will flee Ukraine (out of population of 42 million).

What means 4 times bigger refugee wave than the big one a few years ago. This wouldn't be pretty.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Headlines


ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE WILL GIVE WEAPONS TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO DEFEND THE COUNTRY

UKRAINE CUTS OFF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

 

[Facepalming]

At least no more mean tweets.

 

[JAVO]

Headlines


ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE WILL GIVE WEAPONS TO ANYONE WHO WANTS TO DEFEND THE COUNTRY

UKRAINE CUTS OFF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

He's at least a few months too late.

 

[Virtual ghost]

He's at least a few months too late.

Probably.

If Russia hits with full strength Ukraine will be overwhelmed in a week at most. Therefore the only real question left is can random people with guns create some kind of a resistance. What in my opinion this is about. Through conventional means Ukraine can't really win this, the difference in military power is just too large. Even for Ukrainian army it is best that they hide in the forests and swamps that are plentiful through out Ukraine. So that they can launch attacks from there once the Russians roll over the country. This is basically the only thing Ukraine has left. The conventional war is probably already lost judging by the incoming news.