Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

The main show starts at 8:00.
Reactions, strategy, history ... of the mess in Ukraine.

 

[Virtual ghost]

it matters little but I predicted around 2000 that unilateralism would become the norm again and that no one dominant nationstate would exist in the early 21st century, but rather multiple competing states would emerge as the US's influence (predictably) waned

20th century cold war technically wasn't even the first such "conflict" in history.

The phase we are leaving behind (multilateralism) has unfortunately not been the historic norm, nor do I think it will be the norm again for some time, very likely not in any of our lieftimes.

Multilateralism is basically the consequence of the moment and technological advances. Since the belief was that if we all trade with each other that we can all be friends or whatever. Plus the computer/internet revolution made this quite easy in practical sense. But the idea evidently didn't work since 200 countries out there are evidently too diverse to just be one. Culture and development level are just too different and the whole thing failed. Since the product of the whole thing is economic mess that works only for the few people that do trade 24/7. So yes, we are evidently closing that chapter and moving on. The changes in the field are evidently showing as that. Multi-polar world order with limited contacts seem to be the future of the incoming decades. Since everyone wants to be able to close the doors and have it's own peace as much as possible.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Putin recognizes separatist claims to Ukraine’s entire Donbass region

The Kyiv calm amid a Russian menace

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Multilateralism is basically the consequence of the moment and technological advances. Since the belief was that if we all trade with each other that we can all be friends or whatever. Plus the computer/internet revolution made this quite easy in practical sense. But the idea evidently didn't work since 200 countries out there are evidently too diverse to just be one. Culture and development level are just too different and the whole thing failed. Since the product of the whole thing is economic mess that works only for the few people that do trade 24/7. So yes, we are evidently closing that chapter and moving on. The changes in the field are evidently showing as that. Multi-polar world order with limited contacts seem to be the future of the incoming decades. Since everyone wants to be able to close the doors and have it's own peace as much as possible.

Well the U.S is also partially responsible for it failing, IMO, but it never occurred to the genius experts that someone else could benefit from that. Because, when you're an empire, you create your own reality.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well the U.S is also partially responsible for it failing, IMO, but it never occurred to the genius experts that someone else could benefit from that. Because, when you're an empire, you create your own reality.

Pretty much every country did it's part that the system/idea fails. Most of them didn't even have to be nothing more than themselves.
However the key element why it failed was that less democratic countries can achieve much smaller costs for their final product. Since they have plenty of people around that are basically slaves, plus they don't have to bother too much with environment and similar topics. Also with their profits they can just buy important companies in developed countries and totally mess up the picture. Especially since their practices plummet working conditions for pretty much everyone. What in the end means that the system simply wasn't fair and then richer nations started to get more defensive about this ... and after a few rounds of this the whole system is cracking. Actually what is going on with Ukraine will only separate various economies if it continues and this already seems to be happening as we speak. This is basically the end of totally fluid unregulated global markets. What basically means the start of new era and we will probably get blocks that have relatively limited economic contacts with one another. High energy prices only add to that.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Pretty much every country did it's part that the system/idea fails. Most of them didn't even have to be nothing more than themselves.
However the key element why it failed was that less democratic countries can achieve much smaller costs for their final product. Since they have plenty of people around that are basically slaves, plus they don't have to bother too much with environment and similar topics. Also with their profits they can just buy important companies in developed countries and totally mess up the picture. Especially since their practices plummet working conditions for pretty much everyone. What in the end means that the system simply wasn't fair and then richer nations started to get more defensive about this ... and after a few rounds of this the whole system is cracking. Actually what is going on with Ukraine will only separate various economies if it continues and this already seems to be happening as we speak. This is basically the end of totally fluid unregulated global markets. What basically means the start of new era and we will probably get blocks that have relatively limited economic contacts with one another. High energy prices only add to that.

That might not be so bad if the blocs don't destroy each other. Might counteract the "race to the bottom" you mentioned.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That might not be so bad if the blocs don't destroy each other. Might counteract the "race to the bottom" you mentioned.

That is kinda the biggest irony. That on the medium or long run all of this can be good. Especially since with these splits into blocks you kinda lose a good chunk of the toxic influence from the not so democratic countries. Plus their "slaves" are less likely to lower your wages and benefits, since they are out of the direct picture due to the political reasons. So yes, if all of this this doesn't cause ww3 this is probably step in right direction. Since this will probably be the start of healing for quite decent number of countries and it may even bankrupt a few dictatorships, what would cause "reforms". So as it was said in the thread, the last 20-30 years really were kinda unnatural. To many things were just too fluid.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

That is kinda the biggest irony. That on the medium or long run all of this can be good. Especially since with these splits into blocks you kinda lose a good chunk of the toxic influence from the not so democratic countries. Plus their "slaves" are less likely to lower your wages and benefits, since they are out of the direct picture due to the political reasons. So yes, if all of this this doesn't cause ww3 this is probably step in right direction. Since this will probably be the start of healing for quite decent number of countries and it may even bankrupt a few dictatorships, what would cause "reforms". So as it was said in the thread, the last 20-30 years really were kinda unnatural. To many things were just too fluid.

This is what I was thinking. Manufacturing wouldn't take place in China and, even if it wouldn't all come back to the US, would probably take place somewhere less authoritarian which would probably result in better working conditions.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is what I was thinking. Manufacturing wouldn't take place in China and, even if it wouldn't all come back to the US, would probably take place somewhere less authoritarian which would probably result in better working conditions.

Yes, and that is called "the creation of democratic supply chains". To me it really is kinda stupid that under international law China can just come to my place and buy important infrastructure. Or that Russia can do it's online disinformation campaigns without consequences, take over local companies through tricks , bribe around, or just play with energy prices. Or the price of something jumps on the other side of the world and than it has to jump for me as well. Even if there is a decent supply of it here. To me all of this was kinda stupid from the start and I wouldn't mind to see this scaled down (probably as everyone else here).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Live blog: Ukraine crisis


The events are pilling up fairly quickly.

 

[Virtual ghost]

However it seems that the Russians didn't move too much today. Maybe they will indeed just stay in the separatist regions. The only problem is that this move isn't worth provoking all these sanctions. Therefore some kind of follow up will happen in incoming days. This is simply too many troops and patriotic speeches that nothing will happen in the end.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine crisis prompts Germany to rethink Russian gas addiction

This is good example of how paradigms of totally free trade can lead into what is basically political and security nonsense. In a way it is really luck that all of this is happening at the start of Spring. When energy consumption for natural gas is evidently dropping and you have half a year to figure out the alternatives. However if Germany and some of it's neighbors really make a U turn in this area then this in itself is a decent remake of the global dynamic. Especially since being dependent on a dictatorship this much is very risky move that on the long run will have it's democratic costs. If the situation continues the whole Europe will see some form of "de-russification" that will come out of sanctions, freezing assets and braking of supply chains.


Cyber ‘spillover’ from Ukraine looms in the Baltics

EU hits 3 Russian banks in sanctions’ package

Wary of China, Taiwan calls for vigilance amid Ukraine escalation

Democracy in decline worldwide

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Ukraine crisis prompts Germany to rethink Russian gas addiction

This is good example of how paradigms of totally free trade can lead into what is basically political and security nonsense. In a way it is really luck that all of this is happening at the start of Spring. When energy consumption for natural gas is evidently dropping and you have half a year to figure out the alternatives. However if Germany and some of it's neighbors really make a U turn in this area then this in itself is a decent remake of the global dynamic. Especially since being dependent on a dictatorship this much is very risky move that on the long run will have it's democratic costs. If the situation continues the whole Europe will see some form of "de-russification" that will come out of sanctions, freezing assets and braking of supply chains.


Cyber ‘spillover’ from Ukraine looms in the Baltics

EU hits 3 Russian banks in sanctions’ package

Wary of China, Taiwan calls for vigilance amid Ukraine escalation

Democracy in decline worldwide

A lot of "experts" on global affairs in the US seem to have thought that if you trade with someone this will somehow eventually result in them becoming free. This doesn't seem to have happened with China so I don't feel like their views should be given any more credence.

I wouldn't be surprised if these "experts" were financially benefitting from trade with China in some way and were looking for some way to morally justify it. "No, by me getting rich I'm helping them get freedom."

 

[Virtual ghost]

A lot of "experts" on global affairs in the US seem to have thought that if you trade with someone this will somehow eventually result in them becoming free. This doesn't seem to have happened with China so I don't feel like their views should be given any more credence.

This is the mistake that pretty much every democratic country made over the last few decades. Since the idea was that cold war is over and that we can all just trade and be "individuals". However with recent events it is becoming obvious even to the blind that this logic isn't working. For Germany this takes extra long since they have this anti-war upbringing. However it is really the time that people look into how situation on the field actually works at this point. Free trade and fair trade are two different things. Therefore if something isn't done democracy will evaporate globally since under current logic dictatorship can interfere legally everywhere and they tend to be more competitive due to the obvious reasons.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It seems that someone is searching a new market for it's energy production sector.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Live blog: Ukraine crisis

The incoming data/stories are showing evident political escalation.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

a societal collapse may be bad for humanity, but it may be great for the health of the planet, assuming we don't nuke one another in the process.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Stop pulling your punches on Gazprom, Ukrainian gas boss tells EU