Trump vs. Biden

[Z Buck McFate]

I don't care for writing a well thought out consideration of something, and then getting as a response some kind of lazy boilerplate talking point about the "Democrat Party." (as though I am the "Democrat party".) It just makes me feel like I wasted my time. I don't expect people to change their minds, but being interested in learning more is important to me. When it looks like people are shutting themselves off from information because it threatens their worldview, it means I can take them less seriously.

*Exactly*.

I think the truth of the matter is that much of what informs the way they vote and think is in fact deeply emotional. I don't mean that there isn't some element of emotion involved with regards to my own positions, but I think this is something that they want to hide much more. Have you ever noticed how often they want to paint themselves as "critical thinkers", "logical", "rational", or "objective"? This is all just a front, though. Dig beneath the surface or watch carefully and you can discover triggers of their own.

Yeah, the difference between needing to believe it about oneself and it being a big part of a person's identity vs the practice of being mindful of it is more self-evident than the former tend to know. It's like how people who actually are intelligent let their intelligence speak for itself, instead of actually talking about how intelligent they are.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Just a question here, since I don't understand much of your election system nor I really need to: When the american election for president ends? When Biden or Trump is going to win?

More on this.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I think that polls are losing relevance completely at this point. Truly many already voted and polls are more focused on likely voters groups. Therefore polls probably wouldn't catch plenty of people that are generally none voters, but this time they will show up judging by numbers. What can easily tilt the whole thing in some states for 5-10 points. Since the whole situation is simply unprecedented and standard modeling logic doesn't fully apply anymore. Therefore now we will just have to wait and see where all of this goes.

 

[Merced]

Don't mind me. Just sharing one of the most influential decision making videos for the election.

In all seriousness, there is a historical precedent that the person who goes first in these rap battles loses the election. I'm not saying that I am basing my prediction on that, but I am. That is 100% what I'm saying.

 

[Jaguar]

Why do you hate people for being successful?

He's a plumber. I wouldn't trust him working on my toilet - he'd probably rob my house or paint crazy shit on my walls with his plunger.

 

[Jaguar]

It would be kind of amusing if all of us remote liberal folk strategically moved around the country to provide an extreme electoral college advantage to Democrats.

I like that idea. Move the pieces around the board. Checkmate.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Well, I’m from California. I have some childhood friends who moved to Texas and are really excited about voting in this election because their vote might actually impact the presidential election for once in their lives. I was just granted permanent remote work status, and am also thinking of moving to another state. Not because I think California is terrible or anything, but I’ve lived here all my life and housing is pretty costly now due to the sky high demand, so I can get more bang for my buck elsewhere. Many techies have similarly been granted permanent remote work, and I wonder how many will choose to move around the country, brining their wealth and politics with them.

It would be kind of amusing if all of us remote liberal folk strategically moved around the country to provide an extreme electoral college advantage to Democrats. Maybe we could also start a charity to buy guns for every minority in the country as well. Nothing would please me more than fully armed antifa/BLM and California politics spread far and wide. lol

Problem is most of the states I’d be interested in, perhaps with the exception of Montana, are already pretty solidly blue.

 

[Totenkindly]

Problem is most of the states I’d be interested in, perhaps with the exception of Montana, are already pretty solidly blue.

The point is that doesn't matter -- you go where the need is.

I was thinking a bit more about that earlier, in terms of how that would work. in terms of occupation for example. Because that's an issue... getting people to places where they could still function and make a living. I guess professions that allow for more distance / remote in would have to go to the more remote locations. Meanwhile, people without those options would hit up the denser states or ones with more/larger cities where jobs would be available in their line of work.

It sounds like a crazy idea, but I honestly have thought about it on and off over the last few years. It's just that it would have to happen in significant numbers to make a noticeable impact. Then again, there's also something to be said about simply the influx of new perspectives into an area; when you're in an area, you can more influence an area, and it could make inroads with younger populace.

 

[Vendrah]

More on this.

Thanks.
I am fine already, I did understood partially the basics.
I won't live in the US, I don't need a deep understanding about how your politics system works (at the same time, you don't need to understand how the Brazillian one does).

 

[Virtual ghost]

The point is that doesn't matter -- you go where the need is.

I was thinking a bit more about that earlier, in terms of how that would work. in terms of occupation for example. Because that's an issue... getting people to places where they could still function and make a living. I guess professions that allow for more distance / remote in would have to go to the more remote locations. Meanwhile, people without those options would hit up the denser states or ones with more/larger cities where jobs would be available in their line of work.

It sounds like a crazy idea, but I honestly have thought about it on and off over the last few years. It's just that it would have to happen in significant numbers to make a noticeable impact. Then again, there's also something to be said about simply the influx of new perspectives into an area; when you're in an area, you can more influence an area, and it could make inroads with younger populace.

Well, sending just about million voting liberals to the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and Utah would make the whole region surely purple. While with million and a half the whole region would start to get clearly blue, even if you don't convert/effect any locals. What is altogether doable with some internet jobs and bunk beds, especially if internet companies are willing to help with the internet jobs. However this in the end would end the possibility of red senate and probably even presidency if we judge in simplistic fashion. Feel free to check the 2016 victory margins for those states.



And before someone accuses me of something I will say that this kinds of practices were/are fairly common in my part of the world. Which is exactly why you need some kind of collective defense/effort/mindset, since otherwise you are easy pray for more organized collectives. Which have strategic advantage almost by default.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Thanks.
I am fine already, I did understood partially the basics.
I won't live in the US, I don't need a deep understanding about how your politics system works (at the same time, you don't need to understand how the Brazillian one does).

I maybe should have stated this explicitly, but I used your post to indicate what was in the video. (I didn't intend any obligation on your part. )

 

[Vendrah]

I maybe should have stated this explicitly, but I used your post to indicate what was in the video. (I didn't intend any obligation on your part. )

Ok, no problem.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Some thoughts:

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

As I said: with so much early voting the polls are kind obsolete. Therefore it is better to look at the turnout with some combination of polling.
So here is my vision of the map.

Clearly the most visible thing and change from last time is blue Texas. For a long time I didn't want to believe it but there really is a case that Texas could go blue. The first one is that the turnout is already at shocking 80% of 2016. Recent polling on 538 is also slightly on the Biden's side and the odds of him taking the state are growing. Therefore if there is a place where a person should expect "system shock" that is evidently Texas, if we judge by the number.







Florida and NC are narrowing to some degree in polling but NC has 65% of the 2016 vote, while Florida is at 60%. Therefore if narrowing matters is hard to say since larger turnout should push things more towards blue.

Georgia is basically a toss up but early vote is already at 65% of 2016.

For Pennsylvania I am not so sure anymore. It should go blue but with narrowing and focusing of the state from the right I am not 100% sure that it will be blue in the end. Early voting seems to be weak.

For Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota it is fairly certain that they will be blue in the end. If anything since early voting seems to be much better than in Pennsylvania.

Maine should go blue, but one district maybe goes red. In Nebraska is reverse but one blue district is more likely than the red one in Maine.

Ohio will probably be slightly red in the end. Especially since it seem to be moving further red these days.

Iowa is a toss up that very narrowly leans blue. Early voting is decent, 43% of 2016.

Arizona is slightly blue but moving towards red. Having currently 47% of 2016 is perhaps the strongest argument that it could go blue even if this is more of red state traditionally.

Nevada was blue in 2016 and therefore it will probably be in 2020 as well, which is evidently more blue year.

Montana is generally red leaning state but with already 70% of the the 2016 in the bag there could be some surprises.

New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are in double digits of blue, so there is just no time and money to turn this around. They will go blue.

Everything else is pretty much safe ether way. In the case that there is more early voting Alaska, South Carolina, Missouri and Kansas are the places where something could have happened.




So the summery is that this will be election cycle that is very specific. Since so much time for early voting will significantly boost the turnout in many places and that is very likely to effect the results. Perhaps even in places that are not normally in play. Therefore this is in a way a whole new game.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Jaguar]

2:03 Right on!

 

[Jaguar]

Now this is what I call ironic and funny:

Putin rejects Trump's criticism of Hunter Biden's business
The Russian president took the time to knock down what he made clear he regarded as false allegations from Trump about the Bidens.

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that he saw nothing criminal in Hunter Biden's past business ties with Ukraine or Russia, marking out his disagreement with one of Donald Trump's attack lines in the U.S. presidential election.

Putin was responding to comments made by Trump during televised debates with Democratic challenger Joe Biden ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

 

[Virtual ghost]

If anything this deserves an A for creativity.

 

[Tater]

 

[FemMecha]

I wonder how many Trump supporters would feel comfortable having their mothers or daughters date him when he talks about grabbing women's body parts, makes fun of individuals with disabilities, is flippant about COVID-19, suggestively supports white supremacists. Would you want him as a father or son-in-law? Would you want to work for him and have him grab you sexually when he feels like it? Is it objective to think these behaviors don't influence policy choices?