Trump vs. Biden

[Lark]

I wonder if the British will have been right about calling the result of the election, I mean that's what they pretty much did when they reported that Boris and co. were seeking to create a closer relationship with Biden than Trump.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I wonder if the British will have been right about calling the result of the election, I mean that's what they pretty much did when they reported that Boris and co. were seeking to create a closer relationship with Biden than Trump.

Well, Trump really needs some sort of a miracle if we judge by the numbers. He has something like 250% of a lead that Hillary had a week before election day.
Therefore it makes strategic sense to develop certain connection with the likely winner. Especially since the US will be the one that will really decide how UKs post Brexit era will look like.


My local politicians and media also seem to be on the Biden's side in the terms of sympathies.

 

[Stigmata]

Well, Trump really needs some sort of a miracle if we judge by the numbers. He has something like 250% of a lead that Hillary had a week before election day.
Therefore it makes strategic sense to develop certain connection with the likely winner. Especially since the US will be the one that will really decide how UKs post Brexit era will look like.


My local politicians and media also seem to be on the Biden's side in the terms of sympathies.

It's interesting to observe the political spectrum divide that exists among Trump supporters (I'm talking about actual trump supporters, not just conservatives) versus everybody else, and just how Trumpism has perpetuated this ideology of rejecting facts, science, objective data, and operating primarily based upon intense emotions, feelings, while having a strong sense of tribalism -- all measured data, and most experienced political pundit opinions, seems to suggest that Joe Biden is heavily favored in this race, yet Trump loyalists still refuse to acknowledge anything that doesn't paint a favorable picture of his campaigns performance upto this point.

The record early voting turn-out thus far and higher registration numbers, coupled with Trumps lackluster approval ratings throughout his tenure as president, seem to indicate quite heavily that the odds are not in his favor at this time for reelection. Keeping all that in mind, it just doesn't make much sense to believe that any of this suggests that he could generate bigger turnout for this election when he didn't generate nearly as much turnout last time where he ended up losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.

If nothing else, the election should be a sobering experience for the ideology for the opposing side of whichever candidate wins.

 

[The Cat]

It's interesting to observe the political spectrum divide that exists among Trump supporters (I'm talking about actual trump supporters, not just conservatives) versus everybody else, and just how Trumpism has perpetuated this ideology of rejecting facts, science, objective data, and operating primarily based upon intense emotions, feelings, while having a strong sense of tribalism -- all measured data, and most experienced political pundit opinions, seems to suggest that Joe Biden is heavily favored in this race, yet Trump loyalists still refuse to acknowledge anything that doesn't paint a favorable picture of his campaigns performance upto this point.

The record early voting turn-out thus far and higher registration numbers, coupled with Trumps lackluster approval ratings throughout his tenure as president, seem to indicate quite heavily that the odds are not in his favor at this time for reelection. Keeping all that in mind, it just doesn't make much sense to believe that any of this suggests that he could generate bigger turnout for this election when he didn't generate nearly as much turnout last time where he ended up losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.

If nothing else, the election should be a sobering experience for the ideology for the opposing side of whichever candidate wins.

did you see TYT on those Q lunatics?

 

[Burning Paradigm]

As someone in Texas, I was skeptical because I believed Trump would still retain a small edge, but enough to still keep Texas red for now and garner him 38 electoral points. But, the polls keep getting closer and closer, and I think maybe, just maybe, Biden could pull this off. My gut feeling is still Trump wins Texas, but I'll be enthralled if it goes the other way. I know it will be much more competitive in 2024. Anecdotally, I know of a couple typically Republican voters in the suburbs near where my family lives who either 1) have left the GOP altogether (much rarer); 2) express an openness to voting for Biden (what the hesitancy is at this point, idk, but I hope they capitalize on it). I'm trying not to let my optimism and excitement get the better of me, though.

People thought Beto's campaign for Senate in Texas was a fluke because Cruz was just that unlikeable. But, either way, this race vindicates those of us who felt Texas was going in a purple direction.

 

[Stigmata]

As someone in Texas, I was skeptical because I believed Trump would still retain a small edge, but enough to still keep Texas red for now and garner him 38 electoral points. But, the polls keep getting closer and closer, and I think maybe, just maybe, Biden could pull this off. My gut feeling is still Trump wins Texas, but I'll be enthralled if it goes the other way. I know it will be much more competitive in 2024. Anecdotally, I know of a couple typically Republican voters in the suburbs near where my family lives who either 1) have left the GOP altogether (much rarer); 2) express an openness to voting for Biden (what the hesitancy is at this point, idk, but I hope they capitalize on it). I'm trying not to let my optimism and excitement get the better of me, though.

People thought Beto's campaign for Senate in Texas was a fluke because Cruz was just that unlikeable. But, either way, this race vindicates those of us who felt Texas was going in a purple direction.

The race even being as close as it is in Texas should be a scary sign for his campaign that not only does it seem they're not able to retain the swing states he won in 2016, but he's actually losing ground in traditional republican strongholds. Nothing is over until it's over obviously, but they should be quite concerned.

 

[Burning Paradigm]

The race even being as close as it is in Texas should be a scary sign for his campaign that not only does it seem they're not able to retain the swing states he won in 2016, but he's actually losing ground in traditional republican strongholds. Nothing is over until it's over obviously, but they should be quite concerned.

Definitely. If anything, him breaking the blue wall in the Midwest in 2016 was a fluke. At least 2/3 of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are going for Biden come Election Day (I'd rather Michigan and Pennsylvania, personally).

Hell, the part of Harris County I'm in is in a traditionally R+15 district and it's looking like Trump will win by I think 5, if I remember correctly.

 

[Jaguar]

The bastard better be right.

 

[Jonny]

National - Rasmussen (Oct 21-25, 1,500 LV): Trump + 1

Pennsylvania - Insider Advantage (Oct 25, 400 LV): Trump + 3

Florida - SurveyMonkey (Sep 27 - Oct 24, 14,042 LV): Trump + 1

Florida - Rasmussen (Oct 20-21, 800 LV): Trump + 4

Wisconsin - Susquehanna (Oct 16-19, 500 LV): Even

North Carolina - Trafalgar (Oct 20-22, 1,098 LV): Trump + 3

North Carolina - Rasmussen (Oct 20-21, 800 LV): Trump + 1

Michigan - Zia Poll (Oct 11-18, 2,851 LV): Trump + 4

Michigan - Trafalgar (Oct 15-18, 1,034 LV): Trump + 2


https://www.redeaglepolitics.com/post/2020-election-center

 

[The Cat]

God damn it florida, get your head in the game

 

[Jaguar]

I just got back from shopping. I couldn't stop laughing as I drove and read all the signs on people's yards along the way. Biden. Biden. Biden. Biden. Biden. Fuck you Trump. Biden. Biden. Biden. Republicans For Biden. Biden. Biden. Biden. Fuck you Trump. Biden. Biden. Biden.

 

[ceecee]

So, this is their closing argument? Not just what he's saying, the fact that they felt sending this failson out to make the final play, was the best idea.

 

[Stigmata]

So, this is their closing argument? Not just what he's saying, the fact that they felt sending this failson out to make the final play, was the best idea.

"The problems that they're complaining about..."

 

[Jaguar]

.

Get with the program, PA. Dump Trump.

 

[Virtual ghost]

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Turnout as percentage of full 2016 turnout.
Early vote turnout above 40%.


Texas: 82.2%
New Mexico: 70.6%
Montana: 70.1%
North Carolina: 66.6%
Georgia: 66.1%
Tennessee: 65%
New Jersey: 63.4%
Florida: 62.8%
Washington 60%
Nevada: 59.4%
Vermont: 59.3%
Oregon: 57.8%
Colorado: 55.9%
Virginia: 49%
Iowa: 47.5%
North Dakota 47.4%
Massachusetts 47.4%
Arizona: 47.1%
Wisconsin: 45.2%
California: 44.5%
Maine: 44.5%
Arkansas: 44.1%
Michigan: 43.3%
Nebraska: 43.3%
South Carolina 40.7%
South Dakota: 40.2%
Utah: 40.1%
Minnesota: 40%


In other words many of these are very important states this cycle and large turnout almost always helps blue cause. Plus it is worth saying that there is still a week to the election day, so adding another 20-30% on these numbers is realistic. Not everyone in these percentages votes for Biden but people showing general interest is a good sign for him. Plus this could really effect various local races, what actually matters quite a bit.



Plus there is something worth mentioning, on that list there are a few states that you wouldn't really expect there. Places like the Dakotas or Tennessee. However when you go to the worldometer page about US and click that the display is per capita for individual states, you will see that Dakotas are the states with the most recorded cases per capita since the start. While Tennessee is 7th. Arkansas is 9th. Etc. Therefore there could be some connection between turnout and infections in some states. Since out of 20 of the most infected states per capita 14 are on that list (if I did the math right). While the state with the most recorded cases at face value is kinda unsurprisingly Texas.

 

[Virtual ghost]

National - Rasmussen (Oct 21-25, 1,500 LV): Trump + 1

Pennsylvania - Insider Advantage (Oct 25, 400 LV): Trump + 3

Florida - SurveyMonkey (Sep 27 - Oct 24, 14,042 LV): Trump + 1

Florida - Rasmussen (Oct 20-21, 800 LV): Trump + 4

Wisconsin - Susquehanna (Oct 16-19, 500 LV): Even

North Carolina - Trafalgar (Oct 20-22, 1,098 LV): Trump + 3

North Carolina - Rasmussen (Oct 20-21, 800 LV): Trump + 1

Michigan - Zia Poll (Oct 11-18, 2,851 LV): Trump + 4

Michigan - Trafalgar (Oct 15-18, 1,034 LV): Trump + 2


https://www.redeaglepolitics.com/post/2020-election-center

I did a number of these kinds of "warnings" over the time because he indeed still has a window towards victory. This is exactly why I stopped with numbers from 538, which is giving him something like only 12% chance of victory. While real number is probably around double of that, what is still generally realistic chance.

 

[Tellenbach]

Trump Secures Third Historic Middle East Peace Deal, This Time With Sudan

“HUGE win today for the United States and for peace in the world. Sudan has agreed to a peace and normalization agreement with Israel! With the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, that’s THREE Arab countries to have done so in only a matter of weeks. More will follow!” he tweeted.

President Trump is probably the most successful president on foreign policy since Reagan. I don't remember any peace deals with Obama/Biden.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Not really since in the Middle east all kinds of peace deals are popping all the time, which is because no one is really sticking up to them. This is exactly why there is constant mess there, since rules don't really work. Syria isn't stopping, Iraq - mass protests, Russia and China have shown opened support to Iran (and nuclear deal is kinda dead), mess in Yemen wouldn't stop anytime soon. Azerbaijan-Armenia got activated again after a few decades. Libya is still in civil war even if there are about dozen sides involved in "stabilization". Even if US leaves Afghanistan that probably would solve the problem fundamentally. Turkey evidently isn't a democracy anymore .... mess .

 

[ceecee]

Not really since in the Middle east all kinds of peace deals are popping all the time, which is because no one is really sticking up to them. This is exactly why there is constant mess there, since rules don't really work. Syria isn't stopping, Iraq - mass protests, Russia and China have shown opened support to Iran (and nuclear deal is kinda dead), mess in Yemen wouldn't stop anytime soon. Azerbaijan-Armenia got activated again after a few decades. Libya is still in civil war even if there are about dozen sides involved in "stabilization". Even if US leaves Afghanistan that probably would solve the problem fundamentally. Turkey evidently isn't a democracy anymore .... mess .

And this won't be either.

Pretty sure there was a functioning Iran deal done by Obama/Biden, regardless of the extremist right wing claiming otherwise.

 

[Jaguar]

The Federalist is a news and opinion website that reports with a right-wing bias that typically favors the right and denigrates the left.
On March 26th, 2020 Twitter locked the site’s account for violating its rules against spreading misinformation about the coronavirus.

Wow, what a great source! Woohoo!