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Trump vs. Biden

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
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22,148
Now Georgia spilled into blue.


I mean there seems to be plenty of states that are quite close and Trump basically needs all of them in order to win. However the odds are that Biden is quite likely to pick some of them through pure statistical odds. Even if he only needs the blue wall back, that he will probably get. What is problematic for Trump in the terms of campaigning, since you must be all over the place in order to try keeping things together. What is objectively hard to do since you don't have a focus.


Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, NC, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, some districts ... etc. That is plenty of ground to cover just to insure that you have decent odds to even get to 270. What basically leaves him with 2 debates to try fixing of this situation. Because there probably is no time for step by step, since Biden is gaining ground in many toss up areas.
 

Jaguar

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This is hilarious. :rofl1:

Thanks for reminding me how nice it's been not having Eddie Munster around.

Daia6xRVwAESzc-.jpg
 

Jonny

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Oxs9aR4.png


Even if FiveThirtyEight's model were as off as it was in 2016, Biden would still pickup Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, winning by about 318-220. If their model is accurate this time around, Biden wins 353-185.

Their model still gives Trump a 20% chance of winning, so it's by no means a sure thing, but it would be hard for Trump to pull it off unless something fundamentally changes or polls are even more off than in 2016.
 

Jaguar

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I'm glad the scumbags are being charged with felonies. Jesus, what is it with people not wanting an election free of voter suppression?

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel has filed felony charges against two well-known out-of-state Republican operatives for allegedly orchestrating robocalls aimed at suppressing the vote in the Detroit area, her office said Thursday.

Nessel has charged Jack Burkman, 54, of Virginia and Jacob Wohl, 22, of California with election law and conspiracy crimes that would bring up to 24 years behind bars for each of them if convicted.

The charges were filed Thursday in the 36th District Court in Detroit. They stem from a false robocall that discouraged mail-in voting by telling people their personal information will be part of a public database that will then be used by police if they vote by mail. A recording of the call said it was made on behalf of Project 1599, a project spearheaded by Wohl, a conservative social media personality, and Burkman, a conservative operative.


Michigan AG Nessel files charges against GOP operatives over robocalls
 

ceecee

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I'm glad the scumbags are being charged with felonies. Jesus, what is it with people not wanting an election free of voter suppression?




Michigan AG Nessel files charges against GOP operatives over robocalls

I was just going to post this. These two dipshits, especially Jacob Wohl, are doing all they can to end up in prison. I personally love the press conferences they do from Jack Burkman's porch tho.

This is the Pete one.


This is also a legit news vid channel. Ford Fisher is excellent.
 

Jaguar

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Messages
20,639
I was just going to post this. These two dipshits, especially Jacob Wohl, are doing all they can to end up in prison. I personally love the press conferences they do from Jack Burkman's porch tho.

This is the Pete one.


This is also a legit news vid channel. Ford Fisher is excellent.


The guy is a lawyer doing this crazy shit + voter suppression via robocalls? Man does that piss me off.
 

Jonny

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The guy is a lawyer doing this crazy shit + voter suppression via robocalls? Man does that piss me off.

Imagine having a Wikipedia page where your Occupation is listed as "Conspiracy theorist, fraudster, Internet troll".
 

Z Buck McFate

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Axios: Trump pushes back on changes to upcoming presidential debates

President Trump suggested Thursday that he'll resist any moves that could cut off candidates' microphones in the next debate if he continues to talk over his opponent and the moderator.

"Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time?" he tweeted.
The big picture: White House and campaign officials insist Trump is still committed to two remaining debates, despite the fallout from Tuesday, including poor reviews and discussions of new guardrails.

Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh tells Axios they "will absolutely oppose" the Commission's proposed changes, but offered no specifics.
The call for changes came after Trump received intense criticism, including from his own advisers, about how much he interrupted Joe Biden.
What they're saying:

Earlier Thursday, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters that Trump "wants to debate. He plans on being at the debate, but wants the rules to be fair and wants a fair exchange and doesn't want rules that cover for a certain candidate's inability to perform."

It's really getting more and more difficult to maintain any respect for anyone who votes for this vile, psychopathic jackass.

[eta] I mean ffs, "Why would I allow the Debate Commission to enforce rules I don't want to respect? You're only making me respect the rules because stutterers are weak and they need extra protection from my super masculine alpha strength - NOT FAIR TO ME!" Fucking psycho.

[More eta, apparently I wasn't finished] How can there be a whole team of people who DON'T see how fucking psychopath-caliber cruel, toddler-caliber narcissistic, and over-the-top authoritarian this is? How can there be enough people to support him that we actually have to worry about him getting elected? I realize the bulk of his base is uneducated. But I would have thought most human adults were better than this.
 

Z Buck McFate

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I actually personally think the Melania conversation is being blown out of proportion. I realize she said "give me a fucking break" about kids being separated from parents, but it seems like she was saying that more about the pressure being put on her to do something - and I'm not convinced she'd be able to. I don't especially like her, and it's hard not to think of her as some vapid simpleton for her "Be Best" campaign (against online bullying.....I mean, clean up in aisle yours, Melania). But I don't fault her for not especially giving a crap about Christmas and resenting the decorations task or for feeling frustrated that anyone expected her to do something about the camps.

If I thought she was smart enough to do something about them and didn't, that would be different. But this seems like the jacket fiasco - interpreting her words in the worst possible way to maximize righteous indignation.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
Messages
22,148
This should be a debate day so let's see where we are now in comparison with a few days ago. (I added a few states/districts into the mix)


Alaska: Trump +4.5
Arizona: Biden +3.5
Colorado: Biden +9.9
Florida: Biden +1.7
Georgia: Trump: +1.1
Iowa: Trump +0.8
Maine 2nd: Biden +3.4
Michigan: Biden +6.9
Minnesota: Biden +8.7
Missouri: Trump +6.8
Montana: Trump +8.1
Nebraska 2nd: Biden +5.4
Nevada: Biden +6.4
New Hampshire: Biden +6.8
North Carolina: Biden +1.1
Ohio: Biden +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.5
South Carolina: Trump +7.6
Texas: Trump +1.9
Virginia: Biden +10.0
Wisconsin: Biden +6.5



Few days later



Alaska: Trump +4.0
Arizona: Biden +3.9
Colorado: Biden +10.7
Florida: Biden +2.3
Georgia: Biden +0.5
Iowa: Trump +0.4
Maine 2nd: Biden +3.7
Michigan: Biden +7.2
Minnesota: Biden +9.2
Missouri: Trump +6.3
Montana: Trump +7.7
Nebraska 2nd: Biden +5.9
Nevada: Biden +6.9
New Hampshire: Biden +9.1
North Carolina: Biden +1.2
Ohio: Biden +1.4
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.8
South Carolina: Trump +5.7
Texas: Trump +1.6
Virginia: Biden +10.6
Wisconsin: Biden +7.0




The thing is that only when you type it yourself you get to sense the difference. Which is that Biden is gaining everywhere and that basically shows that the debate already made some impact.
Plus I have to mention that Alaska is going a little bit unnoticed in it's melt of red. Also Arkansas is still at that Trump +2, I really can't believe that no one checked upon that random poll from June.
 
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