Trump vs. Biden

[ceecee]

How Zello Became A Recruitment & Organizing Tool For The Far Right | On the Media | WNYC Studios

The violence people will see as the election gets closer is going to come from the far right, emboldened by standard conservatives/right voters that don't really have a problem with what is happening but will do their part to cast as much blame on the left as possible. For the people bitching about the media (again) the media has no sway over watching this with your own eyes.

U.S. police chiefs grapple with new Election Day threat: Armed men at the polls

 

[Virtual ghost]

Could Democrats Win Full Control Of More State Governments Than Republicans? -538



There is some interesting info in the article.

 

[Jaguar]

Televangelist Pat Robertson says God told him Trump will win, then an asteroid will hit Earth and “maybe” bring “the end.” | TheHill

 

[FemMecha]

Question about Biden. You know how Trump constantly says that Biden has extreme policies and is a socialist or whatever, and then people will say they are voting for Trump because of his policies, but they know he is an asshole. What are these supposedly extremely liberal policies? From what I'm understanding he is rather moderate, status quo kind of candidate who is similar to what Republicans used to be. Is it far off to say Biden is the Republican candidate, Harris might be the Democrat, and Trump is the Randomized, Crazy, Maverick, Good Ol Boys party candidate?

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Question about Biden. You know how Trump constantly says that Biden has extreme policies and is a socialist or whatever, and then people will say they are voting for Trump because of his policies, but they know he is an asshole. What are these supposedly extremely liberal policies? From what I'm understanding he is rather moderate, status quo kind of candidate who is similar to what Republicans used to be. Is it far off to say Biden is the Republican candidate, Harris might be the Democrat, and Trump is the Randomized, Crazy, Maverick, Good Ol Boys party candidate?

Hell, dress Kamala in white face and drag, even she could pass as the typical 90s moderate republican

That’s where we’re at. a choice between fascism an neoliberalism. Ugh

 

[Virtual ghost]

The other day Jag posted link on the site that pays attention to how early voting is going and I quoted him about day and a half ago. Saying that already 3.88 million people voted in Texas. However today the site is already saying 4.6 million (in 2016 something like 8.8 million people voted altogether in the state). What means that we already have over half of 2016 votes for the state. What is both a lot and evidently above how most states vote. Therefore if there is indeed mass turnout in Texas due to COVID or whatever that probably means that this entire show is over. I mean the state has about 29 million people so all of this is physically possible without too much trouble.


I am not ideal person to research this since am foreigner but someone should take a look at this and check this out in places that can be trusted. Since it is really big deal if I got it right.




This is the site that Jag posted.

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Just 15 hours later and there is about 130 000 more votes in Texas. What when combined already gives 52.8% of the whole 2016 turnout for the state (the highest percentage in the country).

Something is evidently going on down there.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It also seems that it is kinda similar in Georgia. Which is now at 40.7% of the whole 2016 vote (one of the highest percentages in the country).

Also to consider since they are in play but the percentage is evidently above national average of 27.3%


Montana: 40.2 %
North Carolina: 38.9%
Iowa: 36.1%
Maine: 36.1%
Colorado: 37.5%
Michigan: 34.3%



Probably safe but still jumps out.

Virginia: 36%
Tennessee: 35.7%
New Jersey: 46.3%
Vermont: 51.1%
New Mexico: 40.4%



(numbers taken from Jag's site)

 

[ceecee]

Question about Biden. You know how Trump constantly says that Biden has extreme policies and is a socialist or whatever, and then people will say they are voting for Trump because of his policies, but they know he is an asshole. What are these supposedly extremely liberal policies? From what I'm understanding he is rather moderate, status quo kind of candidate who is similar to what Republicans used to be. Is it far off to say Biden is the Republican candidate, Harris might be the Democrat, and Trump is the Randomized, Crazy, Maverick, Good Ol Boys party candidate?

There aren't any. But conservatives/Trump voters are so afraid of the word "socialism", Trump thinks spewing bullshit and adding SOCIALISM! in it will be enough to keep their vote. Which is probably true - it isn't like the majority of them will take the time to find out what socialism actually is, how many variations of it are in current governments world wide or talk to some socialists. Many also believe socialism is simply communism by another name - US Cold War propaganda was very effective but that's all false.

I would call Trump a crypto fascist and the vast majority of the GOP, down to their most local representation. I would call Biden a neoliberal and most of the Democratic party as well - the leadership certainly. Not so much as you get more local - there are all kinds of Justice Dems, DSA endorsed Dems and progressives unseating incumbent neolib Dems. But there are conspiracy theory supporters, card carrying Nazi's and white supremacists and nationalists all running for seats in the GOP at various levels. Ideology the US has gone to war over, they are unacceptable to the American way of life. People that vote for them are either completely fine with that or have no idea and don't bother to inform themselves.

 

[anticlimatic]

If you like corporate monopolies and government produced news, vote Biden.

 

[FemMecha]

^Biden is going to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations. And Trump? He is going to make it easier for corporations.

Anyway, if you like child sex trafficking parties with Epstein and Maxwell, vote Trump.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

There aren't any. But conservatives/Trump voters are so afraid of the word "socialism", Trump thinks spewing bullshit and adding SOCIALISM! in it will be enough to keep their vote. Which is probably true - it isn't like the majority of them will take the time to find out what socialism actually is, how many variations of it are in current governments world wide or talk to some socialists. Many also believe socialism is simply communism by another name - US Cold War propaganda was very effective but that's all false.

Yeah. I'd love if some conservative would give a coherent answer to this, but it really seems like anyone who took the time to understand what these "extreme" Biden policies are, they'd realize they're not extreme. Not even close. In fact, I'd like to know what the "again" stands for in MAGA because the 1950s looks like something exponentially closer to socialism than anything Biden has planned, tax-wise (and income equality-wise).

*****

Lawyers at firm used by Trump donate $90,000 to Biden, $50 to president

Ha.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Anyway, if you like child sex trafficking parties with Epstein and Maxwell, vote Trump.

How many of those 545 migrant children ended up in foster care, and what are the statistics about foster kids being abused? If you like child trafficking of any kind, vote Trump.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

The right thinks Biden is too extreme, the left thinks he isn't extreme enough. It's hilarious, but this is usually how it goes with democratic nominees. I remember Obama being the second coming of Mao, by the way the right described him. When he's not much further left than Nixon was.

honestly, the only area where I think Biden is actually too extreme for me is in wanting to roll back the reforms to Title IX. That's one shining spot where I think the Trump admin was right. And even RGB expressed misgivings about the Obama era Title IX reforms (which Biden played a large part in implementing, and has promised to restore if elected). I wonder how many of the people who bandwagoned to put her picture as their FB profile pics are even aware of her stance on due process and Title IX.

Otherwise, I think Biden is about as centrist and milquetoast as they come.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is the site that Jag posted.

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

This year Texas is seriously voting and it is already at 59.2% of it's whole 2016 vote.
Therefore if these numbers are true even early vote at this rate will surpass the one in 2016.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

so how big of a blowout does Biden need to make it practically impossible for Trump to contest the election results? I suspect that if it's very close, one or both sides will contest the results, and it will become a dragged our ordeal.

But supposing Biden got over 350 electoral votes, I just don't see how Trump could contest this without straight up trying to refuse to leave the white house. I just don't see how he'd have enough legal backing and support to contest a huge blowout win.

Although I also suspect that the final outcome is going to be a lot closer, which means Trump will contest any results if he loses. And if it involves a scenario like 2000 and needs to go to the Supreme Court, they'll almost certainly back Trump. However, if for some reason we have an electoral college scenario requiring the House to decide, then it will go to Biden if the dems have a majority there. Either way, this could be a very volatile situation, a lot of people will cry that it's rigged (regardess of who wins), and we could be looking at a very real potential for violence and civil unrest.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

To some extent, people who say it's rigged aren't totally wrong, in the sense that our system is already rigged to prevent direct election of presidents by the voters. Plus the convoluted processes that are to be taken in the event of contested or tied outcomes. Not to mention all of the bullshit like gerrymandering (which tends to favor the GOP, ironically) at the lower/local levels of participation. Oh it's rigged, just not in the sense Trump thinks of when he says it's rigged.

 

[ceecee]

To some extent, people who say it's rigged aren't totally wrong, in the sense that our system is already rigged to prevent direct election of presidents by the voters. Plus the convoluted processes that are to be taken in the event of contested or tied outcomes. Not to mention all of the bullshit like gerrymandering (which tends to favor the GOP, ironically) at the lower/local levels of participation. Oh it's rigged, just not in the sense Trump thinks of when he says it's rigged.

Right, I don't think it's rigged either. I think the system is working precisely as it should. The door is always open for voter suppression, gutting voting laws at the state level and GOP obstruction. After all, it is their method of winning elections and it's worked well for decades. GOP has always had to cheat - the only upside is that it's become impossible to ignore any of this anymore. Even the most lukewarm voter is aware and I thank Trump and the GOP for that.

 

[Virtual ghost]

so how big of a blowout does Biden need to make it practically impossible for Trump to contest the election results? I suspect that if it's very close, one or both sides will contest the results, and it will become a dragged our ordeal.

But supposing Biden got over 350 electoral votes, I just don't see how Trump could contest this without straight up trying to refuse to leave the white house. I just don't see how he'd have enough legal backing and support to contest a huge blowout win.

Although I also suspect that the final outcome is going to be a lot closer, which means Trump will contest any results if he loses. And if it involves a scenario like 2000 and needs to go to the Supreme Court, they'll almost certainly back Trump. However, if for some reason we have an electoral college scenario requiring the House to decide, then it will go to Biden if the dems have a majority there. Either way, this could be a very volatile situation, a lot of people will cry that it's rigged (regardess of who wins), and we could be looking at a very real potential for violence and civil unrest.

It is hard to say since even 350 EV doesn't mean much if the margins around the map are ultra low. I would say it has to be above 320 and for the most part with clear margins. Although even in that case he could contests things on a number of ways. But if the loss is sound the GOP itself will probably pressure him to just leave (for the sake of damage control).

 

[Jonny]

so how big of a blowout does Biden need to make it practically impossible for Trump to contest the election results? I suspect that if it's very close, one or both sides will contest the results, and it will become a dragged our ordeal.

But supposing Biden got over 350 electoral votes, I just don't see how Trump could contest this without straight up trying to refuse to leave the white house. I just don't see how he'd have enough legal backing and support to contest a huge blowout win.

Although I also suspect that the final outcome is going to be a lot closer, which means Trump will contest any results if he loses. And if it involves a scenario like 2000 and needs to go to the Supreme Court, they'll almost certainly back Trump. However, if for some reason we have an electoral college scenario requiring the House to decide, then it will go to Biden if the dems have a majority there. Either way, this could be a very volatile situation, a lot of people will cry that it's rigged (regardess of who wins), and we could be looking at a very real potential for violence and civil unrest.

I think it also depends on the margin of victory in the tipping point states. I think Biden could win by 278-260 and have it be relatively hard to contest if his margin in the tipping point state is something like 5%+. But if Biden won the way Trump did in 2016, with ~300 EV's but a tipping point margin of something like <1% then there would be cause for concern, especially if there were already significant legal challenges to voting methods in the states in question.

Below is a histogram of output from the Economist model. As you can see, there are a number of trials 2000+2500~4500 where the margin of victory for Biden is somewhere south of 2% in the tipping point state. There are 40k trials in all, so coupled with the roughly 10% chance of an outright Trump win, there is another 10% or so where Biden's victory is small enough that Trump could perhaps "legitimately" contest it. Those numbers drop precipitously if we restrict the national popular vote or EV's above certain thresholds. For example, if Biden wins the national popular vote by 7%+ and 350+ EV's, the likelihood of a tipping point state victory of <2 is essentially non-existent.

 

[Jonny]

More evidence of the shy Trump voters.