Trump vs. Biden

[anticlimatic]

It doesn't read: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a conservative America.
It reads: A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a post-fact America.

Third comment down:

Every conservative in America feels exactly like this math teacher.

I certainly don't. The description should read:

Keyboard warrior and writer finds himself trumped by the nature of online debate and vents his frustrations with creative satire.

 

[Jonny]

 

[Jaguar]

No it doesn’t. How dare you attempt to correct my interpretation.

8,484,728 views• Sep 19, 2017
Ideaman
26.3K subscribers
A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a post-fact America.


Bite me.

Every conservative in America feels . . .

I certainly don't.

How would you know what a conservative feels? You just vote for the person with the "big idea," remember? For all I know, you think using Windex is a big idea.

 

[Jaguar]

May 25-28, 2020 Post-ABC national poll crosstabs - Google Sheets

 

[Jonny]

8,484,728 views• Sep 19, 2017
Ideaman
26.3K subscribers
A well meaning math teacher finds herself trumped by a post-fact America.


Bite me.

Fake news.

 

[Jaguar]

Fake news.

Ha! 8,486,933 views•Sep 19, 2017

 

[Jonny]

Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago? 8 years ago? Let's Make America Great Again, for real this time. The contrast could not be greater.

 

[Jonny]

 

[Jonny]

 

[Jonny]

FYI... for all you poll/forecast haters, here's a message I sent to a friend prior to the 2016 election:

Here are the links:

Election Update: How Our Model Works - Andrew Peterson - Medium

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls -- All Of Them -- In Trump's Direction | HuffPost

YouTube

 

[Totenkindly]

yeah, I remember all that...

....By monkeying around with the numbers like this, Silver is making a mockery of the very forecasting industry that he popularized. “... I get why Silver wants to hedge. It’s not easy to sit here and tell you that Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning. Everything inside us screams out that life is too full of uncertainty, that being so sure is just a fantasy. But that’s what the numbers say.

That didn't age well.

 

[Jonny]

 

[Jonny]

Model voters - Meet our US 2020 election-forecasting model | United States | The Economist

Given all this uncertainty, it is tempting to conclude that it is too early for predictions, and call the election a virtual toss-up. That is the view of bettors, who currently make Mr Biden a bare 55-45 favourite. Yet a hard look at the data and at history suggests that this is too generous to Mr Trump. The Economist’s first-ever statistical forecast of an American presidential race, which we launch this week and will update every day until the election, gives Mr Biden an 82% chance of victory.

Forecasting the US 2020 elections | The Economist

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I remember there was supposed to be a mas defection of Republicans last time, too.

The rank and file Republican voter doesn't actually have that much in common with George W. Bush or Colin Powell (fuck him, by the way). I don't see any of the Republicans I know in real life being swayed by this (and I think they're way more representative of the Republican electorate). White blue collar types (ironically enough with very little in the way of "fiscal conservatism" in their personal spending habits) that either live in northwestern Indiana or want to move there.

I think a less neoliberal (or even someone younger who was less of a known quantity) candidate might have won over the some of the younger portions of this demographic who are less susceptible to scaremongering about socialism due to the Cold War only being a thing in early childhood, if at all. (Probably not so with the older ones, though. )

 

[Jonny]

 

[rav3n]

Most explosive claims about Trump in upcoming John Bolton memoir - Business Insider

• Trump on several occasions wanted to "give personal favors to dictators he liked" by offering to kill federal criminal investigations in the US into foreign companies based out of China and Turkey, according to the book.
• Trump told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he would "take care" of a criminal investigation into a Turkish company being pursued by federal prosecutors in New York and said "that the Southern District prosecutors were not his people, but were Obama people, a problem that would be fixed when they were replaced by his people," Bolton said.
• Trump had a poor command over national security and foreign policy issues, including not knowing that the United Kingdom was a nuclear power and asking if Finland was a part of Russia, according to the book.
• At the 2019 G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, Trump pleaded with Chinese President Xi Jinping to purchase large quantities of American soybeans and wheat to help Trump's 2020 reelection chances, Bolton wrote.
• Trump told Xi that Americans wanted him to be able to serve more than two terms as president, according to the book.
• Trump supported China holding Uighur Muslims in concentration camps: "According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do," Bolton wrote.
• In intelligence briefings, "much of the time was spent listening to Trump, rather than Trump listening to the briefers," and Trump lacked the respect of many of his high-level staff members, according to the book.
• Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listened in on a call between Trump and South Korea's president before Trump's 2018 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Bolton wrote. After the call, Pompeo said he was "having a cardiac arrest," while Bolton said the conversation was like a "near-death experience."
• At the summit itself, Bolton said Pompeo passed him a note calling Trump "full of s---."
• Trump, who has frequently referred to Kim as "little rocket man," was fixated on having Pompeo give an autographed copy of Elton John's "Rocket Man" to Kim on a diplomatic trip to North Korea, according to the book.
• Trump said it would be "cool" for the US to invade Venezuela, describing the South American nation as "really part of the United States," Bolton wrote.
• In a 2019 meeting in New Jersey, Bolton said Trump suggested that journalists should be jailed more easily and forced to give up their sources, calling reporters "scumbags" and saying they should be "executed."
• Trump's decision to release a statement defending Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November 2018 after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi was meant to distract from an unflattering story about his daughter Ivanka, a White House adviser, using a private email account, according to the book.
• Shortly after Bolton joined the White House, he said former chief of staff John Kelly told him, "You can't imagine how desperate I am to get out of here." He added: "This is a bad place to work, as you will find out."

 

[Virtual ghost]

I think Biden will win with current trends. Trump and the circle around him simply isn't doing enough to counter the pandemic that drives the problems. Yesterday it was a worst day in a month regarding new cases and some of the swing states are in deepest problems. Therefore if the pandemic remains open and present topic in November that will surely swing many people to vote blue. Since in that case there will probably be a flood of people voting anti-Trump instead of Biden. Therefore Trump should have probably taken the path of my conservatives. Very strong and focused counter to the pandemic right after first 50 cases and then through this try to create an image and redeem questionable choices. In the case that the world is falling apart and in US there is minimal damage there probably would have been red wave despite everything else. (plus there would be no current protests in their current form that aren't helping him)

 

[Maou]

Even I think Trump's chances of winning have gone down.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

It's Biden's to lose at this point. All he has to do is keep sitting pretty in his little basement bunker. Would be shocked if he lost, although I was a little shocked when Hillary lost as well. I think the double whammy of coronavirus and the recent protests sealed Trump's fate and Biden would really have to fuck up bad to lose. I'd be shocked to see a moderate democrat fuck up, but then it also wouldn't be the first time one of them has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory

 

[rav3n]

All he has to do is keep sitting pretty in his little basement bunker.

You've got the wrong man/boy for sitting in a bunker.

Biden:

Trump:

‘Bunker Boy’: Trump mocked for ‘hiding’ from protesters at White House - National | Globalnews.ca

Trump described the Secret Service as “very cool” on Twitter and pushed the conspiracy theory that the protests were not legitimate.

He failed to mention that he spent nearly an hour of his Friday night in the White House’s fortified bunker in a rare security response that typically only occurs in the face of a terrorist threat.