Random political thought thread.

[Red Herring]

Let me transcribe and translate a snippit from (German minister for the economy) Robert Habeck's press statement shortly after the Trump tariffs were announced:

Allow me to say that we should not make the mistake of sharing Donald Trump's basic assumption. Because it is wrong. What Trump is trying to make us believe and demonstrate with his numbers is that there is such a thing as a trade surplus or trade deficit. That, for example, Germany is selling more goods to the US than the US is selling to Germany and that this is to the detriment of the US. That's his logic and then he goes through a list of countries. But that is wrong. It is wrong in every way. Globalization means that we are working collaboratively around the world and we all benefit from it overall. One of the biggest beneficiaries of globalization is the US. Over the last few years, calculated since 2010, roughly, the US has enjoyed significantly higher GDP growth than Europe. That they don't distribute this fairly within their country, that's their own domestic policy problem. But it is simply wrong, economically speaking, that this world which was built up in the 1990s after the confrontation of the blocks works to the disadvantage of the US. It is untrue and if we buy into it we have already made our first mistake.

 

[SensEye]

I've noticed the Supreme Court seems to be siding with Trump so far at least to the extent of putting lower court decisions that went against him 'on hold'. They don't seem concerned with providing a legal basis as to their decisions. Doesn't bode well for the 2028 election when he will no doubt claim fraud if he loses.

 

[ceecee]

I've noticed the Supreme Court seems to be siding with Trump so far at least to the extent of putting lower court decisions that went against him 'on hold'. They don't seem concerned with providing a legal basis as to their decisions. Doesn't bode well for the 2028 election when he will no doubt claim fraud if he loses.

Unless they are planning on replacing the 22nd Amendment on their own, which they can't, he won't be losing an election.

 

[SensEye]

Unless they are planning on replacing the 22nd Amendment on their own, which they can't, he won't be losing an election.

You sure? Let's touch base again four years hence.

In any event, perhaps I should have said the Republican nominee will claim fraud. I suspect Vance will reject the electoral college votes if instructed, and off to the supreme court the bogus fraud claims will go.

I have not written the supreme court off completely just yet. Just looking for early warning signs. I saw a lower court judge recently ruled Trump's banning of the Associated Press from the White House was unconstitutional (a Trump appointee none the less). However, he did not insist they be re-instated immediately. Giving the Trump team time for an appeal I suspect. Let's see if this one makes it to SCOTUS (seems too trivial but you know how Trump loves to litigate anything that goes against him) and how they rule if so.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The US brain drain has begun

Trump says ‘major’ pharmaceutical tariffs on the way

EU slaps tariffs on US trucks, cigarettes and ice cream to target Trump’s red states

Musk berates Trump trade guru Navarro as a ‘moron’ amid tariff turmoil



On the long run this is going to be quite the drama.

 

[ceecee]

You sure? Let's touch base again four years hence.

In any event, perhaps I should have said the Republican nominee will claim fraud. I suspect Vance will reject the electoral college votes if instructed, and off to the supreme court the bogus fraud claims will go.

I have not written the supreme court off completely just yet. Just looking for early warning signs. I saw a lower court judge recently ruled Trump's banning of the Associated Press from the White House was unconstitutional (a Trump appointee none the less). However, he did not insist they be re-instated immediately. Giving the Trump team time for an appeal I suspect. Let's see if this one makes it to SCOTUS (seems too trivial but you know how Trump loves to litigate anything that goes against him) and how they rule if so.

Oh, I don't think Trump will leave office voluntarily at all. I think it will require removal by force in accordance with the law and I'm good with that as long as we're still a country with laws or a police state by then. I'm assuming that squshy bitchbaby Vance will do as he is told by Trump exactly the way he is now.

 

[Virtual ghost]

China retaliates against Trump with total 84 percent tariff on US goods

As I said: This is is going to get worse than COVID era. Prepare for it !

 

[Vendrah]

China retaliates against Trump with total 84 percent tariff on US goods

As I said: This is is going to get worse than COVID era. Prepare for it !

Why?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Why?

When the problem is based directly on human relations rather than outside threats the mess is generally bigger.

The global economy is already openly exhausted by COVID and outgoing wars. So this is 3rd crisis in a row, not the first one. What means that everyone is kinda half crazy in the start. What is evidently bad for open dialogue about the issues.


All of this kinda depends in which part of the world you are living, but this really looks as something that could get very ugly quite fast.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump hits pause on trade war

Trump keeps tariff pressure on China, EU welcomes pause


It seems that someone rational has finally came into the room. Because the previous trajectory of events was completely unsustainable in the big picture. US-China trade war is going to be a mess but at least things shouldn't spiral out of control instantly.

 

[The Cat]

Pickled Petey Whiskey Dick is afraid of warrior women.
Kinda hard to buy into his "I'm a tough guy" act when he's afraid of girls so bad.​

 

[Coriolis]

Trump hits pause on trade war

Trump keeps tariff pressure on China, EU welcomes pause


It seems that someone rational has finally came into the room. Because the previous trajectory of events was completely unsustainable in the big picture. US-China trade war is going to be a mess but at least things shouldn't spiral out of control instantly.

I wouldn't consider this a sign of rationality. It is Trump being Trump: jerking everyone around in response to his whims of the moment. Sure, they may be influenced by his perception of external events like market unrest, but his perceptions and reactions frequently do not parallel those of truly rational folks operating in the best interests of their nation or community.

All of this shows up a serious weakness in the U.S. system, namely that a single individual is able to create this much chaos and destruction with the stroke of a pen. Sure, it requires many to be complicit through acquiescence, but obviously the checks and balances in the Constitution are not adequate, especially when they can be so readily ignored, as Trump is doing with the courts. When America finally comes to its collective senses, this will need to be corrected.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I wouldn't consider this a sign of rationality. It is Trump being Trump: jerking everyone around in response to his whims of the moment. Sure, they may be influenced by his perception of external events like market unrest, but his perceptions and reactions frequently do not parallel those of truly rational folks operating in the best interests of their nation or community.

When I said "someone" I meant that someone finally managed to talk some sense into him. Because the policy was completely unsustainable for a few days.

 

[The Cat]

 

[SensEye]

Continuing my theme from earlier, I saw SCOTUS directed the Trump admin to facilitate the return of that dude wrongly deported to El Salvador. That's not exactly a legal ruling, but it is something team Trump won't like (and may ignore). This is a positive sign that SCOTUS is not completely under Trump's thumb.

I'll be watching further judgements as they arise (I sense lots of Trump related litigation will end up there).

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Riva]

I understand why Trump wants to implement tariffs on goods that destroys local production. But why implement tariffs on raw materials and goods that are not manufactured in the US?

 

[Riva]

The US stock market took a hit because of the tariffs. But middle class investors will suffer. The billionaires would come out of this richer.

Billionaires can afford to invest when the market crashes. But very very cheap. Sell 10 years later with 10 times the profits.

Can trump voters see this?

I understand why people voted for him - his promises of bringing jobs home - but why would they keep supporting him?

The commodity prices might increase quite a lot.

 

[ygolo]

<cynicism>Billionaires come out richer, somehow, no matter what. The have their accountants, lawyers, lobbyists, and whole crew who can figure out loopholes.</cynicism>

I don't know what the future holds. Most of us are just trying to survive till the next day.

This guilded age may make the last one seem downright golden by how few people benefit.

 

[Virtual ghost]

World war 1 started on 28th of July 1914

28+7+19+14=68


World war 2 started on 1th of September 1939

1+9+19+39=68


Open invasion on Ukraine started on 24th of February 2022

24+2+20+22=68




Awkward.