Random political thought thread.

[The Cat]

Things might have just gotten worse.

We have regional elections in several right-leaning Eastern states next weekend (which is what VG was alluding to before).

There was a knife attack at a summer festival in the city of Solingen with several dead and injured. The perpetrator could escape and ran at large in the city for a while. Naturally the rumor mill started immediately regarding the possible motive and identity. It's still a bit early but less than an hour ago the Islamic State claimed to be behind the attack.

The far-right is portraying itself as the only party able to protect the country from dangerous criminal Muslim migrants and this Attack just a week before the elections is pretty much the best thing that could have happened to them. *Sigh*

Does anyone wonder at the seeming convenience of that kind of thing, the whole thing seems like it could be a thing to try to start trouble for everyone?

 

[Red Herring]

Does anyone wonder at the seeming convenience of that kind of thing, the whole thing seems like it could be a thing to try to start trouble for everyone?

I had that thought for half a second but I also have a wild Imagination.

Usually the kind of people talking about false flag operations are also the people voting for the extreme right, at least here in Germany. I googled "Solingen false flag" to see if there was any conspiracy chatter but found nothing.

I don't think the extreme right or even a hostile nation would murder civilians just to improve regional election results. The IS message could theoretically be fake though. But the police or secret service would soon find that out. I do however almost surely expect Russia to use this propagandistically to push the narratives they want to see.

Not sure if you remember the whole French Bedburg thing a year or two ago. Turns out that was completely blown out of proportion and spread by Russian agents. I expect something similar here.

There was a famous case several years ago of a 13 year old German-Rusdian teenage girl in Berlin that had gone missing for a while. There were people in the streets and it was a major newsstory in Russia because she had claimed to have been raped by three foreigners. It even caused diplomatic tensions. It later turned out that she had lied out of fear of her parents and had actually just been with a friend. Russia used that story for quite a while even after they knew it was false.

 

[The Cat]

Not sure if you remember the whole French Bedburg thing a year or two ago. Turns out that was completely blown out of proportion and spread by Russian agents. I expect something similar here.

There was a famous case several years ago of a 13 year old German-Rusdian teenage girl in Berlin that had gone missing for a while. There were people in the streets and it was a major newsstory in Russia because she had claimed to have been raped by three foreigners. It even caused diplomatic tensions. It later turned out that she had lied out of fear of her parents and had actually just been with a friend. Russia used that story for quite a while even after they knew it was false.

yeah that tracks. I wish more people would ask themselves, who benefits from their fear, and what could it long term cost them and others if they capitulate to it.

The whole situation is stressful. I hope reason and sense prevail.

 

[Red Herring]

Update: The perpetrator is still at large but the police have arrested a 15 year old refugee for questioning as a witness. He apparently had a conversion with a suspect shortly before the attack in which that other person mentioned planning something like this.

There is no IS confession video yet, only a letter. That letter sounds a bit weird to me but I'm probably reading too much into it as I'm no expert
The letter mentions attacking "an assembly of Christians" (the attack was at a secular summer festival celebrating the 650th anniversary of the city and Germany in general isn't particularly Christian these days) and taking "revenge" for people in Palestine and elsewhere. Maybe the romantic in me hopes that real murderers aren't this generic and stupid.

 

[Red Herring]

LOl. If you want to go full conspiracy (and you should never go full conspiracy!): The young witness is a refugee from Kasachstan (so, practically Russia). If he is pointing fingers at a Muslim refugee ...

This is just for fun though, I don't really believe any of that. Occam's razor tells me this was probably a young male Muslim, possibly with mental health issues.
The IS has been known to infiltrate European countries like Germany under the disguise of asylum seekers before though,. It actually has happened.

 

[The Cat]

LOl. If you want to go full conspiracy (and you should never go full conspiracy!): The young witness is a refugee from Kasachstan (so, practically Russia). If he is pointing fingers at a Muslim refugee ...

This is just for fun though, I don't really believe any of that. Occam's razor tells me this was probably a young male Muslim, possibly with mental health issues.
The IS has been known to infiltrate European countries like Germany under the disguise of asylum seekers before though,. It actually has happened.

Yeah, never go full conspiracy is always a good idea, but they're still a fun thought exercise as long as you keep grounded in reality. But you seem pretty put together and organized so Im not worried.

Still its always a tragedy when life is taken, and more so with the fear and loathing such things can spread. Stay safe over there.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Things might have just gotten worse.

We have regional elections in several right-leaning Eastern states next weekend (which is what VG was alluding to before).

There was a knife attack at a summer festival in the city of Solingen with several dead and injured. The perpetrator could escape and ran at large in the city for a while. Naturally the rumor mill started immediately regarding the possible motive and identity. It's still a bit early but less than an hour ago the Islamic State claimed to be behind the attack.

The far-right is portraying itself as the only party able to protect the country from dangerous criminal Muslim migrants and this Attack just a week before the elections is pretty much the best thing that could have happened to them. *Sigh*

Since we are evidently going into the topic of German regional elections there is one thing that I want to ask you.


A few weeks ago I was reading some articles on the topic and there was this conclusion that if the streetlight parties get completely obliterated in these elections that they would simply need to call federal snap elections. The pressure will be too large if they fail to even enter the regional parliaments.

So my question is: Is that relatively likely or someone has rich imagination ?

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK Politico


Plus since we are in these kinds of subjects: The elections are over in UK, however that isn't preventing hard right "Reform UK" from going up in the polling average. In other words they currently have their best numbers thus far and they are within striking range of Conservatives. Especially since the gap is closing pretty fast. After all they aren't hiding that they want to be the main force on the right in UK.

 

[The Cat]

It really does feel a bit like a hydra with a bunch of heads waking up at once if you'll pardon the metaphor.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It really does feel a bit like a hydra with a bunch of heads waking up at once if you'll pardon the metaphor.

This is exactly why I said that on the internet there are no borders. This is all the same "salad".
The same goes for the concept of "global college" that is basically one large race of democracy vs autocracy. Therefore all countries are basically just states in this vast global landscape. What means that there is flipping of the countries in their orientation, not everything is worth the same, some places are pretty swingy and undefined. you have to careful that you supply chains are safe, the internet is good for playing dirty tricks ... etc. In a sense we are currently living in the largest and most complex game of chess that was ever played.

 

[Red Herring]

Since we are evidently going into the topic of German regional elections there is one thing that I want to ask you.


A few weeks ago I was reading some articles on the topic and there was this conclusion that if the streetlight parties get completely obliterated in these elections that they would simply need to call federal snap elections. The pressure will be too large if they fail to even enter the regional parliaments.

So my question is: Is that relatively likely or someone has rich imagination ?

Short answer: I obviously can't predict the future but do not see snap elections on the horizon short term.

Longer answer: It's mainly the FDP that keeps stirring up trouble within the coalition but their poll numbers are just as abysmal as those of their partners, if not more so. They would likely loose votes in a snap election so have limited motivation to drop out. Maybe if they had reason to believe that they would at least get the neccessary 5% AND a coalition with the CDU (but the CDU is also flirting with the Greens).
These regional elections will be hard for all three coalition partners, sure. However, they have always had a hard time in the East. That is nothing new. What's new is two populist parties polling very strongly in the East and dwarfing even the CDU. In all this talk though (as in the eternal debates about how supposedly nobody ever talks about the East and how the East is so underrepresented, etc.) it is often left out that the East only makes up 1/5 of the country, populationwise. Germany is not divided in two equal parts, it's one big Western chunk and one small Eastern appendage. That appendage, which is also more rural, economically weaker and has an even older and whiter population than the rest of the country and is losing its young talents in a braindrain, has its own political culture and lots of accumulated anger and bitterness. So if the federal government ends up drastically losing support in the East that will definitely not improve the national mood. It will not make the country ungovernable though.

All of the 16 Länder represented in the Bundesrat (except for tiny little Saarland, sorry, I overlooked that) have coalition governments. 12 have the SPD in their government, 10 the Greens, 9 the CDU, 3 the Left and 2 the FDP (plus the Free Voters in Bavaria). If the AfD enters into the government of all three states that have elections next weekend (unlikely) and could rule alone or totally dictate their terms there (even less likely) that would give them 12 out of 69 votes in the Bundesrat. Not enough to do or block anything.

The AfD is currently polling at between 16 and 19% nationally. That is a lot and a good reason to worry indeed, but far from the 30% or more that they have in some remote rural areas in the East. And even in those areas where they have huge support the vast majority opposes them. The thing is that an SPD supporter might not like a CDU governent but it will tolerate it and vice versa. But the AfD is not just any other party and the country, rather than being split into seven social groups for seven parties, is basically split into AfD and anti-AfD. Most non-AfD supporters hate the AfD more than they hate each other which is why suddenly even coalitions between the center right and far left are considered an option.

 

[Red Herring]

As for the coalition parties not making it into regional parliament in the East.

There are elections in three states: Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony.

In Thuringia the SPD will likely enter, but barely, the Greens might or might not and the FDP likely won't. The Left and BSW together have more votes than the AfD here but it looks like this could end in a CDU AfD coalition if they break party policy and decide to go dirty.
In Brandenburg the SPD is actually doing well and only a few points behind the AfD. The Greens could enter or not and the FDP likely won't. Negotiations will be interesting but there would be an option without the AfD.
In Saxony the CDU is polling ahead of the AfD. The SPD and Greens might enter or possibly not (SPD slightly ahead of Greens but both doing very badly) and the FDP yet again won't. Here too a coalition without the AfD would be possible but this being the most rightwing state in the country I con't exclude a CDU AfD cooperation.

Realistically speaking, I thing this might result in the AfD governing in one state, being kept out in another and a third one causing a lot of drama for the next weeks or months.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Short answer: I obviously can't predict the future but do not see snap elections on the horizon short term.

Longer answer: It's mainly the FDP that keeps stirring up trouble within the coalition but their poll numbers are just as abysmal as those of their partners, if not more so. They would likely loose votes in a snap election so have limited motivation to drop out. Maybe if they had reason to believe that they would at least get the neccessary 5% AND a coalition with the CDU (but the CDU is also flirting with the Greens).
These regional elections will be hard for all three coalition partners, sure. However, they have always had a hard time in the East. That is nothing new. What's new is two populist parties polling very strongly in the East and dwarfing even the CDU. In all this talk though (as in the eternal debates about how supposedly nobody ever talks about the East and how the East is so underrepresented, etc.) it is often left out that the East only makes up 1/5 of the country, populationwise. Germany is not divided in two equal parts, it's one big Western chunk and one small Eastern appendage. That appendage, which is also more rural, economically weaker and has an even older and whiter population than the rest of the country and is losing its young talents in a braindrain, has its own political culture and lots of accumulated anger and bitterness. So if the federal government ends up drastically losing support in the East that will definitely not improve the national mood. It will not make the country ungovernable though.

All of the 16 Länder represented in the Bundesrat have coalition governments. 12 have the SPD in their government, 10 the Greens, 9 the CDU, 3 the Left and 2 the FDP (plus the Free Voters in Bavaria). If the AfD enters into the government of all three states that have elections next weekend (unlikely) and could rule alone or totally dictate their terms there (even less likely) that would give them 12 out of 69 votes in the Bundesrat. Not enough to do or block anything.

The AfD is currently polling at between 16 and 19% nationally. That is a lot and a good reason to worry indeed, but far from the 30% or more that they have in some remote rural areas in the East. And even in those areas where they have huge support the vast majority opposes them. The thing is that an SPD supporter might not like a CDU governent but it will tolerate it and vice versa. But the AfD is not just any other party and the country, rather than being split into seven social groups for seven parties, is basically split into AfD and anti-AfD. Most non-AfD supporters hate the AfD more than they hate each other which is why suddenly even coalitions between the center right and far left are considered an option.

Actually I know enough about German politics to know this. However my question was perhaps more on the basis that mainstream parties decide to find a more stable balance than the street light coalition. Since this combination is only boosting AfD due to mess that comes out in practice.

 

[Red Herring]

Actually I know enough about German politics to know this.

I know that you follow our politics very closely. We are having this conversation coram publico though.

However my question was perhaps more on the basis that mainstream parties decide to find a more stable balance than the street light coalition. Since this combination is only boosting AfD due to mess that comes out in practice.

There is a lot of discontent (as there always is as far as I can think back, especially when the government is liberal). But there is no such thing as "the mainstream parties" because they have little common interest other than maybe keeping the AfD at bay. The opposition might want snap elections, but I don't see the general public demanding them. And the government would have to be very selfless to volutarily do that at this point. If Lindner and his FDP get a better deal offered from the CDU I could very much see them breaking up the coalition. But why should the CDU tie its fate to a sinking ship when they are currently doing fine and the Greens become more open to cooperation by the day? A CDU Green coalition might frustrate some CDU voters and send them in the arms of the AfD though.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ok, I understand. After all the regular elections should be next year. Therefore the current coalition will try to keep it together to the end of the term and then what happens happens. If the public wouldn't request snap elections due to bad results in the east that basically settles my question/curiosity.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Since we ventured into this topic of national dynamic I think I will show my own cards as well (since I have plenty of them). Out of all people that are regular visitors here I am the one that lives under the administration that is both most socially conservative and the most financially to the left. Sounds strange but this is pretty textbook position for what can be called "Slavic style right wing". After all the new Croatian administration between center right (epp) and hard right (ecr) is celebrating it's first 3 months, what means that certain conclusions can be made.


The biggest direct change is the formation of "ministry for demographics" which has the task to coordinate between all other parts of government the policies that should lead to more demographic stability. In other words making sure that there are at least 2 children per woman and that they all have stable household in which the children will grow. The population of the country is something like 99% white and 1% Roma and that is how it is basically since ever. Plus since there is no legacy of colonialism no one really has the desire to change this, the country is what it is. After all the main left wing party that is main alternative to the current coalition government is openly flirting with both Russians and Orban. Since they are direct continuation of the Communist party that rulled during the cold war era. The last supreme leader is the founding father of the country's main left wing party. Therefore the appetite for large demographic changes isn't really there. Thus far the program was to bring guest workers from poorer countries of Eastern Europe on temporary work. However that stoped being realistic due to demographic problems in those cuntries. While experimenting with people from global south has proven to be controversial. Bringing people of color to the communities where people never even saw a person of color in person is simply "bold" thing to do. If the numbers are small enough this could work, however the numbers have to be pretty large for this to work. Therefore different approach should perhaps be required.


Therefore since the demographics will be the core problem in incoming years the new ministry is formed and it is being led by hard right. The plan is basically to boost child birth numbers through all kinds of social programs and work so that our large diaspora returns to some degree. After all plenty of social programs is what might make those people to come back, since they often don't have those where they live. Half of all Croats are living abroad due to the fact that the country has very dark and complicated history. Therefore just bringing 20% of those people would plug the hole fully. In short the plan is evidently to keep the nation state. After all we lived between 1102 and 1991 without it as parts of various empires and thus most people don't really want to give up on that too easily. EU as it is now is generally seen as positive factor but going beyond that is likely to be too much for most. Especially since many value culture over economy boost. Something on the line of "if you are willing to trade culture for economy you deserve none of them".


That is the big picture, but there are details and things that go without saying. One of such things is that socialized medicine and free collage are being continued as programs. These are so basic programs that they are here no matter what. As a matter of fact hard right even requires extra investments into socialized medicine in deep rural areas. Especially since that is were good chunk of their voters are and boosting demogaphic numbers without stable healthcare is basically unrealistic. After all if you lose your people to disease you will have to import replacement. The same kinda goes with free collage, with stupid people you wouldn't be globally competitive and that means that you will have plenty of financial and practical problems down the road. I mean my right doesn't have this libertarian "self made man" fetish so they can do things on the basis of "whatever it takes". Here the fetish is survival against all odds in what was pretty dark history of wars and dictatorships. What is exactly why current policy looks as it looks.


For my environment it is strange that local universities are full of foreign students. Since my local universities are here to educate local population, not make money. After all the scollarships are paid by the government. Therefore since 99% of college students are locals there is very little of explicit politics at universities. Here the concept that someone will mass protest over events on the other side of the globe is science fiction. People got their scollarship and they study. Plus since the universities are directly state run the state makes sure that the subjects don't get too socially liberal. The current administration recently even blocked some cultural and gender studies. On the basis that this isn't needed.


On the other hand in agriculture there is evidnetly rise of government involvment and many like that since that means stability. The governmet company is talking over some large companies in agriculture and that should help with keeping the production going and eventually boosting it. The world is getting increasingly unstable and thus we must have our own stable food supply. Not organizing that will mean depending on unstable global market and that is bad idea if you plan to make demographic rejuvination of the country. Here it is not unusual that government owned company produces goods and services and then sells them at the market as if it was a private company.


Meanwhile military is seeing a wave of large upgrades and expansions. Which are simply needed in this unstable world. However the general gun ban for the public stays in force. Also the southern and eastern borders and being more and more digged in to make sure mirgrants can't pass. After all many around EU are unhappy when outer border of EU isn't protected and we don't want to take blame for that or suffer political rage of larger member states. Since the migrants actually want to get into those countries, they have no desire to stay here. Hard right as also started prosecution of varioius war crimes made my red army and their supporters. What happened during the war of idependence in the 90s. Plus they plan to dig out various mass graves made durring the communist era. So that those people get proper burial.


There is a lot more in all this but I don't want to get into too much detail and make huge post that no one will read. However this is how majority of the country breaths basically regardless of political orientation and therefore this will be given a go. Plus the odds are that the adminstration will work through all 4 years of the mandate. Since the dynamic in it is positive. After all center right is in office for 8 years now and this time the hard right jumped in in order to have a majority. After all hard right is nothing more than the right wing of the center right that made it's own party. Therefore since GDP growth is at the top of EU and debt to GDP ratio is falling that makes sure that coalition dynamic remains stable and less turbulent. What means that once you tackle the demogrpahic issue everything will be under control, what is exactly why this is being given a priorty.


I am not sure what the people will make out of this but this is how it is. This is probably a little bit in zone of culture shock but in a sense that was the point. Not everywhere people think the same.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Telegram CEO reportedly arrested at French airport

France arrests social media CEO. As I said in Europe they don't like the concept all that much. While the fact that the guy has Russian background only adds into the mix.

 

[Red Herring]

Telegram CEO reportedly arrested at French airport

France arrests social media CEO. As I said in Europe they don't like the concept all that much. While the fact that the guy has Russian background only adds into the mix.

Yeah, Telegram is mostly used by political extremists, weirdos and shady people in my country. It's where they exchange conspiracy theories, organize protests and read the latest official statements from Sergei Lavrov.

 

[Red Herring]

The presumed attacker who killed three people and injured several more in Solingen on Friday has been arrested. It is a refugee from Syria who was originally supposed to be sent back to Bulgaria (the legally responsible safe country) but was then allowed to stay under subsidiary protection. He has confessed. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crlr2z23ykno

Just a day after the Solingen attack, on Saturday, somebody set fire to two cars (including a bottle of gas) in front of* a synagogue in France while there were still people in there and caused a large explosion. He also set fire to the doors. Nobody died but it very much looks like attempted multiple homocide. The French police arrested a suspect today - a man from Algeria who according to CCTV footage wore a Palestinian flag and a kufija while he tried to burn the people inside the synagogue alive. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...est-man-suspected-of-fire-attack-on-synagogue

This kind of shit is the far right's wet dream.



* If you are wondering why he didn't just enter the synagogue - European synagogues tend to have security guards and thick doors. There was an infamous attack on a synagogue in East Germany on Yom Kippur 2019 by a local neonazi (radicalized on the internet who believed in a worldwide Jewish conspiracy) where the perpetrator intented to break down the door of the synagogue and kill as many Jews as possible but failed because it was too thick ... so he turned away and shot and killed random people on the street instead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halle_synagogue_shooting

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

The biggest direct change is the formation of "ministry for demographics" which has the task to coordinate between all other parts of government the policies that should lead to more demographic stability. In other words making sure that there are at least 2 children per woman and that they all have stable household in which the children will grow.

Personally, I'm strongly against this. I think this is a major assault on personal liberty, and my stance is non-negotiable. I can't say I have a household, but if I did I wouldn't like the government telling me that I must reproduce with my wife, especially because I'm strongly opposed to myself creating offspring. Also, the decision to not reproduce is a decision I get to make, not anybody else.

This concept has grown more popular among conservatives in the U.S., also. I find that alarming. If we want to think of ourselves as a society that values freedom and we can't value freedom in this context, what would that say?