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Random political thought thread.

DiscoBiscuit

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I guess that this makes the state genuine Safe D if the decision will stand. What leaves some money for something else on the map.
The real question is what will happen if more states do something like this.
SCOTUS will strike this and the Maine shenanigans down with the quickness.

And we all better hope they do b/c if they don't were on a much shorter trip towards general civil disorder.

This scene from a man for all seasons captures the sentiment.



What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after Trump?
 

SensEye

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What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after Trump?
That's a good clip. Certainly applicable to Trump (who does deserve the benefit of the law). Unfortunately, Trump is the one trying to cut a road through the law. He wants all legitimate legal cases against him dropped. And if not dropped outright, delayed until he can become Potus and drop them himself. However, his critics should not try do end runs using regulations regarding the political system (like dropping him from the ballot or whatnot) because the actual legal system is failing to do it's duty (in this case, grinding too slowly). And why the hell didn't these legal cases get underway in 2021?

I believe, that deep down, all politicians feel they should be above the law, regardless of political affiliation. So they are very reluctant to go after their own. We'll see if crooked Menedez ever sees the inside of a jail cell. I predict not.

Re: Claudine Gay. I wonder if it was the plagiarism that did her in vs her antisemitism? We'll see if the MIT president continues to get a pass.
 

Virtual ghost

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SCOTUS will strike this and the Maine shenanigans down with the quickness.

And we all better hope they do b/c if they don't were on a much shorter trip towards general civil disorder.

This scene from a man for all seasons captures the sentiment.



What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after Trump?


That remark was made before I knew that SCOTUS can strike all of this down. If that is the case I don't really see the point why the Dems are doing all of this in the first place. Since this will surely backfire and practical result is highly under question since you can strike down the decision.

Also I am actually too far to do anything, it is just that I can't believe that you guys are going to reelect Trump (data says you will do that). As I said I fully understand that the establishment messed up pretty badly but I just don't see Trump as solution of that problem. But what will be will be.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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That's a good clip. Certainly applicable to Trump (who does deserve the benefit of the law). Unfortunately, Trump is the one trying to cut a road through the law. He wants all legitimate legal cases against him dropped. And if not dropped outright, delayed until he can become Potus and drop them himself. However, his critics should not try do end runs using regulations regarding the political system (like dropping him from the ballot or whatnot) because the actual legal system is failing to do it's duty (in this case, grinding too slowly). And why the hell didn't these legal cases get underway in 2021?

I believe, that deep down, all politicians feel they should be above the law, regardless of political affiliation. So they are very reluctant to go after their own. We'll see if crooked Menedez ever sees the inside of a jail cell. I predict not.

Re: Claudine Gay. I wonder if it was the plagiarism that did her in vs her antisemitism? We'll see if the MIT president continues to get a pass.
Glad you liked the clip, it is one of my favorite monologues from anything ever.

Regarding Trump, he talks a big game but lets see what turns into action. As always he holds sway over exactly none of the institutions that could enforce his dictates.

From a certain perspective, and this comes from a dear God please let us not devolve into a sectarian civil war place, I think candidates running should be rather difficult to indict on charges barring obvious stuff like he killed a guy etc etc. that partisans of all stripes can agree on. Not oh he misrepresented the value of Mar-a-lago on his loan agreement (when it was clearly as valuable as what he said otherwise the bank wouldn't have loaned him the fucking money and he paid the loan back in full [so there was no materially damaged party]). Like seriously that is a fishing expedition. I don't have time to read the 90+ other indictments so forgive me for assuming that it's mostly similar nit picky process garbage that doesn't surpass what most politicians get up to except of course Menendez as you astutely noted.

More importantly I value not having citizens shooting each other in the street over pursuing judicial political witch hunts. This mostly applies to just the prez here. No one's gonna fight in the streets over a senator or rep getting got by the cops. This isn't some cynical political thing but a genuine worry about things that could really happen. If you don't think so think about it.

I get that this creates a moral hazard where presidents can get away with anything but they already do, cough cough Burisma and the biden family china dealings etc. Which is why I don't care much about the Hunter Biden stuff except insofar as the New York Post was forced to keep it out of the news before the election. Thats some 1st Amend bullshit that shouldn't have happened. But I don't think Biden fam global rent seeking should land him in prison while prez or while running. That leniency I extend there ends the instant they try to pull judicial shenanigans against Trump to keep him off the ballot. If thats fair game then Biden is too (but as I said at the beginning of the post we don't control the institutions that could do anything about it).

Can you tell me honestly that should the judicial ploy against Trump work (or even if it doesn't) that the same wont be done against candidates in the future? Charges becoming a normal part of campaign season.

You know why they didn't do it in '21. Because its not an election year. You have to know this.

Regarding Gay, the antisemitism stuff put the eye of sauron (MSM hyper focus on her) making her vulnerable to the plagiarism stuff. I think Harvard in its bones agrees with her on the Gaza stuff. I don't think they'd get rid of her just for that. Penn has a lot of big Jewish donors I hear (Wharton business school) and I don't think Penn could stand the financial hit that sticking with their president would entail as Harvard obviously could.

The plagiarism stuff is a different matter. Harvards whole point is being the shining beacon of academic rigor in the USA. The plagiarism strikes directly against that point. I think Harvard (rightly) deduced that the loss of reputation of standing by a serial plagiarist as prez would not be worth the satisfaction of sticking with her.

On a larger note I think that Uni prez's all over the country are furiously scrawling through the papers they've written at this very moment to try and minimize the damage should this become a larger campaign that Chris Rufo et. al. pursue. Which Im sure they will, having actually given academia a bloody nose they wont be satisfied with just one punch.

If this turns into a wider study of Uni prez's plagiarism across the country... I wouldn't be surprised if presidents with especially poor records on this to be quietly pushed out of power by their boards lest they go through the public humiliation that Gay and Harvard did. Penn fired their prez but did so quickly and for the Gaza stuff that doesn't make you say "Oh I really think Penn is a shit school now" as the Prez of Harvard getting multiple counts of plagiarism does to Harvard.

I would expect the presidents of Big Elite uni's with a liberal bent to be most worried. I don't think these guys are going to immediately start targeting SEC schools in the south over this, though thats possible if this turns into a big super common thing and Rufo starts taking a bunch of scalps. If they get AI to go through a bunch of prez papers and they find problems with a bunch of prez's they very well could just say fuck it, we're going to go through all papers by all prez's.

MIT strikes me from the outside as a much more rigorous school than harvard (stem and all that) I would be at least a little surprised if that prez was guilty of the same thing.

Thanks for your reply.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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That remark was made before I knew that SCOTUS can strike all of this down. If that is the case I don't really see the point why the Dems are doing all of this in the first place. Since this will surely backfire and practical result is highly under question since you can strike down the decision.

Also I am actually too far to do anything, it is just that I can't believe that you guys are going to reelect Trump (data says you will do that). As I said I fully understand that the establishment messed up pretty badly but I just don't see Trump as solution of that problem. But what will be will be.
Maybe they're trying to normalize it? Or maybe trying to make another Jan 6th happen and so fully weaponize the gov't against conservatives maybe? I dont know, this ballot access stuff just seems stupid to me on scotus striking it down grounds. W/regard to jan 6th stuff the trial stuff is much more likely to make that happen. But and this is important, I would hope that people learned their lesson after last time. No ones trying to go to a political rally only to catch years in the federal pen. Regardless of what happens I don't think that will happen again this time (maybe later in our future under worse circumstances, but they'd show up with guns and try to do the thing for real).

Trump isn't an answer but a symptom. NO ONE is going "fix this" until after things have gotten way worse. We still have so far to fall before people are fed up enough to really demand changes that would fix things and electorally enforce it.
 

Virtual ghost

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Maybe they're trying to normalize it? Or maybe trying to make another Jan 6th happen and so fully weaponize the gov't against conservatives maybe? I dont know, this ballot access stuff just seems stupid to me on scotus striking it down grounds. W/regard to jan 6th stuff the trial stuff is much more likely to make that happen. But and this is important, I would hope that people learned their lesson after last time. No ones trying to go to a political rally only to catch years in the federal pen. Regardless of what happens I don't think that will happen again this time (maybe later in our future under worse circumstances, but they'd show up with guns and try to do the thing for real).

Trump isn't an answer but a symptom. NO ONE is going "fix this" until after things have gotten way worse. We still have so far to fall before people are fed up enough to really demand changes that would fix things and electorally enforce it.


As I said about the charges during the campaign: my impression is that Dems don't have a concrete plan about any of this. Instead they will throw everything they can at Trump and hope that is enough. However since I am not really a Trump fan I find this strategy to be kinda naive in a child like way. Since room for backfiring is indeed pretty wide and shame games aren't really going to do the trick in this level of mess.

If you really want normalization and Trump out of the picture you should do that with policy proposals and serious plans how to make all of that happen. While everything else is just drama upon which Trump feeds. For me the greatest question is what actually happens if he is convicted (especially if he gets the nomination first). What the heck will you do then ? Actual civil war ? (various countries have gone to civil war for less than all this),


This really is Dumb and Dumber.
 
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As I said about the charges during the campaign: my impression is that Dems don't have a concrete plan about any of this.
Of course they don't. (*sigh*) They didn't the first time and because they blamed it on everything and everyone else, they never learned anything.

They got through the second time because Trump didn't figure out that if you adopt the right kind of image, you get seen as the brave heroic leader everyone needs to stand behind There were times when it looked like he might pull it off but he kept screwing it up.

But again, nobody needed to learn anything there.
 
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Virtual ghost

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Of course they don't. (*sigh*) They didn't the first time and because they blamed it on everything and everyone else, they never learned anything.

They got through the second time because Trump didn't figure out that if you adopt the right kind of image, you get seen as the brave heroic leader everyone needs to stand behind. There were time when it looked like he might pull it off but he kept screwing it up.

But again, nobody needed to learn anything there.


Nah, the second time they got saved by COVID. If that didn't happen they would have lost for sure again. Even with COVID the sum of margins in key swing states was some 43 000 votes. What is nothing. We had to wait results for days exactly since it was really close. So without COVID you can bet that there would have been different story in 2020.

So now when we have the picture without COVID again the numbers are suggesting that the dems will lose again. Especially since with the new map Trump doesn't even need Pennsylvania, Michigan or Nevada to win. Just tilt Arizona and Georgia half a point to the right and Wisconsin by a point from 2020 level ... and that is it.







So if you want to prevent such a easy win you will have to propose something measurable to the people.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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As I said about the charges during the campaign: my impression is that Dems don't have a concrete plan about any of this. Instead they will throw everything they can at Trump and hope that is enough. However since I am not really a Trump fan I find this strategy to be kinda naive in a child like way. Since room for backfiring is indeed pretty wide and shame games aren't really going to do the trick in this level of mess.

If you really want normalization and Trump out of the picture you should do that with policy proposals and serious plans how to make all of that happen. While everything else is just drama upon which Trump feeds. For me the greatest question is what actually happens if he is convicted (especially if he gets the nomination first). What the heck will you do then ? Actual civil war ? (various countries have gone to civil war for less than all this),


This really is Dumb and Dumber.

I did a little work for the Desantis gov campaign in '22 and support him now. So I'm doing all I can really. But it quickly became apparent that it wasn't his time, and this was a big blow to me but less so than in previous elections. I've learned to invest much less of my happiness in a particular candidate winning the primaries. Makes things easier but I also feel more cynical as a result. tradeoffs I guess. Interestingly I actually think the best electoral outcome that's even slightly possible at this point is Trump prez and DeSantis VP. DeSantis is such a gov't and policy nerd that he could do all the actual governing stuff that Trump hates, and let Trump just talk to the press and do events which he loves. I would think DeSantis would be able to reign in Trump through Trumps shear lazyness and DeSantis' willingness to pick up the slack. Trump could say whatever but the actual stuff that got done would probably have a very DeSantis flavor to it. But DeSantis would probably never agree to be VP so here we find ourselves. The Fucked up thing is DeSantis would probably do a lot to unify the GOP and improve Trumps electoral chances as far as turning out the GOP itself. Not sure DeSantis would do much to win independent voters as he's pretty Trump coded now after all the Disney stuff. He would most certainly make a Trump admin much better as far as governance and getting things done is concerned.

A weird thing is the media went pretty hard after DeSantis after he won the gov election in '22. I say weird because you would think the press would be excited for the possibility of anyone but Trump, but no. They feared that DeSantis would be a stronger candidate on election day (something that I'm not necessarily sure of given polling now). Everything in politics is cynical.

As to what happens in 2024 I have not a single fucking clue. Every year since 2020 has managed to be more fucked up than the last. Covid, inflation, afg pullout, Ukr War, Gaza War etc. etc. And I don't see 24 breaking that trend. Regardless of what happens with the Trump trials etc. if he is kept off the ballot in Nov after becoming the nom for any reason perceived to be cause by partisan machinations shit will go down somehow. I don't know what shit looks like in this instance, but something will happen.

The big thing I'm curious about is whether those prosecuting the cases against him are really willing to go through with it. Or more accurately whether the Dem party bosses telling them what to do are willing to go through with it. I have a suspicion (hope?) that they are willing to go right up to the line with all this but not cross it. They still hope that the mere specter of prosecution will be enough to doom him electorally. The worrying this is if he keeps polling this well will they be more willing to say fuck it and go all the war through with it.

Maybe thats a "rosy" view of things but I'm always a very secret optimist beneath the layers of realism and cynicism.

And you're right countries have gone to civil war for less. A conclusion the the GOP electorate will certainly come to.

Either way it seems we get the curse of living in interesting times.
 
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Nah, the second time they got saved by COVID. If that didn't happen they would have lost for sure again. Even with COVID the sum of margins in key swing states was some 43 000 votes. What is nothing. We had to wait results for days exactly since it was really close. So without COVID you can bet that there would have been different story in 2020.

He could have beem saved if he could convince enough people he was a Strong Leader Keeping Us Safe. Got the Republicans their only popular vote victory in 28 years.

I think it was possible. He saw Covid as a threat to his reelection chances, not an opportunity, and that was his mistake
 

DiscoBiscuit

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Nah, the second time they got saved by COVID. If that didn't happen they would have lost for sure again. Even with COVID the sum of margins in key swing states was some 43 000 votes. What is nothing. We had to wait results for days exactly since it was really close. So without COVID you can bet that there would have been different story in 2020.

So now when we have the picture without COVID again the numbers are suggesting that the dems will lose again. Especially since with the new map Trump doesn't even need Pennsylvania, Michigan or Nevada to win. Just tilt Arizona and Georgia half a point to the right and Wisconsin by a point from 2020 level ... and that is it.







So if you want to prevent such a easy win you will have to propose something measurable to the people.
Covid was the perfect excuse for vastly expanded mail in balloting, without which Biden wouldn't be president.

Curious to see what manner of schemes are concocted this time. Though without Trump in office and not having him to rail against in the same way may be a death knell.

In '20 Biden didn't need to do anything but be not Trump. Didn't need a message, didn't need anything. Hell he ran most of the campaign asleep in a basement.

Can't do that this time with questions about his age and fitness dogging him. He has to show up and at least appear to be aware of what's going on around him.

I don't expect Trump to have some great message, but this election is about Bidens record as it is when running against all incumbents.

After two wars and inflation etc. it's going to be tough sledding. People aren't nearly as up in arms about Trump b/c we haven't been hearing nearly as much about him as when he was prez.

The only message I expect Trump to have that means anything electorally for undecideds is look at how things were going when I was pres. Look at how things are going now.

And I expect that to be a powerful message.
 
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Virtual ghost

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As to what happens in 2024 I have not a single fucking clue. Every year since 2020 has managed to be more fucked up than the last. Covid, inflation, afg pullout, Ukr War, Gaza War etc. etc. And I don't see 24 breaking that trend. Regardless of what happens with the Trump trials etc. if he is kept off the ballot in Nov after becoming the nom for any reason perceived to be cause by partisan machinations shit will go down somehow. I don't know what shit looks like in this instance, but something will happen.

The big thing I'm curious about is whether those prosecuting the cases against him are really willing to go through with it. Or more accurately whether the Dem party bosses telling them what to do are willing to go through with it. I have a suspicion (hope?) that they are willing to go right up to the line with all this but not cross it. They still hope that the mere specter of prosecution will be enough to doom him electorally. The worrying this is if he keeps polling this well will they be more willing to say fuck it and go all the war through with it.

Maybe thats a "rosy" view of things but I'm always a very secret optimist beneath the layers of realism and cynicism.

And you're right countries have gone to civil war for less. A conclusion the the GOP electorate will certainly come to.

Either way it seems we get the curse of living in interesting times.



The problem here is that the dems got themselves into impossible situation. On one side they made this huge hype that Trump is the criminal anti-christ and on the other side if he is convicted open civil war is quite realistic possibility. In other words if he isn't convicted they will look like clowns and third of their voters will leave the party for good after the 10th major disappointment. This is exactly why I think that these people don't really have a plan. Since they basically short circuit the whole political system to the point that there is no easy way out.

What exactly will happen I don't know either. What is kinda why their choice of actions is kinda dumb. The tensions are too high for improvisations.
 

Virtual ghost

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He could have beem saved if he could convince enough people he was a Strong Leader Keeping Us Safe. Got the Republicans their only popular vote victory in 28 years.

I think it was possible. He saw Covid as a threat to his reelection chances, not an opportunity, and that was his mistake

That is what I said long ago. If he handled COVID better he would have a landslide in 2020, especially after all the charges that didn't really lands with anything concrete. However handling of COVID well requires braking of many republican orthodoxies and he didn't dare to do that in election year. The best part is that ordinary voters would probably forgive him all of that. Since circumstances where indeed extraordinary.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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The problem here is that the dems got themselves into impossible situation. On one side they made this huge hype that Trump is the criminal anti-christ and on the other side if he is convicted open civil war is quite realistic possibility. In other words if he isn't convicted they will look like clowns and third of their voters will leave the party for good after the 10th major disappointment. This is exactly why I think that these people don't really have a plan. Since they basically short circuit the whole political system to the point that there is no easy way out.

What exactly will happen I don't know either. What is kinda why their choice of actions is kinda dumb. The tensions are too high for improvisations.
We've got a two party system those voters have nowhere else to go. They won't leave the party. At worst they'll sit this one out (and it wont be nearly that many of them). If they're willing to sit the election out over Trump not being put in jail, they're democrats for life. Just a little unenthusiastic this time around.
 
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